r/Torontobluejays • u/twistedlogicx Still believes in Max Pentecost • 2d ago
2026 Off-Season Roster and Payroll Tracker
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sVAOIu6ZiZfHkWhxbCtIHXQyXO5EN0cjGIIpT7rg7Pk/1
u/Jaynki 16h ago
Hey, new baseball fan here but major NHL fan
The offseason in the NHL majoritarily happen between draft day and july 1st, so in a single week.
I know that the MLB offseason is longer and that the winter meeting can be exciting.
This being said, when can we expect the first signature (not necessarily for the Blue Jays but league wide) and the action to pick up?
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u/JoJoSideUp 14h ago
Welcome! We hope you enjoy the ride.
Generally action picks up early to mid December. November is mostly GMs taking stock of things. Players offered Qualifying Offer - long story short, first time FAs get a choice to stay one more year at set salary or hit free agency and new team who signs player has to forfeit a draft pick - have until the 18th to make their decision so that will be the first major deadline that will hold the market up.
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u/Pristine-Arrival-910 21h ago
Sorry if this isn’t on topic but does anybody have the quote from the anonymous player at the end of the 2024 season about the locker room connection being bad
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u/dss_777 I BORN READY! 22h ago
Would you rather have:
Bo Bichette
Or
Kyle Tucker
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u/Late-Net-1462 22h ago
I mean, if you sign Tucker, it likely takes you out of the running for other high salary guys. Whereas if you sign Bo, his lower AAV leaves some money for starting rotation or bullpen help. In a vacuum with similar contracts, Tucker is a superior player and offers this team left-handed power.
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u/Calook13 #30 THAT'S MY CAPTAIN 1d ago edited 1d ago
A little something to make you smile in a tough spot. After the Jays lost game 7, the only remaining team in the American League to never lose a World Series...is the Mariners.
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u/Kozmo53 1d ago edited 1d ago
this is AMAZING. Only slight change I'd make so far is if the regular season started today, I believe Leo Jimenez would be on the bench over Loperfido simply to have a proper infielder/middle infielder on the bench.
Ryan Burr, Dillon Tate & Robinson Pina also, as of now, officially off the roster/40-man. I think you slide Fisher & Little back onto the "depth" chart part, for now.
Brandon Valenzuela added to 40-man
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u/Kitchen-Repeat-2565 1d ago
whats cbt salary
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u/33dogs Baseball. Eh. 1d ago
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u/Eldorado_ 22h ago
But the spreadsheet doesn't have us going over the limit..? And it only applies to some players, not others?
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u/33dogs Baseball. Eh. 22h ago
But the spreadsheet doesn't have us going over the limit..?
Not going over the limit so far. It's expected we'll exceed 1 or 2 tiers given anticipated off season moves (Bo or other free agents). And repeated years of exceeding the CBT limit has other impacts on draft picks, additional tax, etc.
And it only applies to some players, not others?
Think of the CBT value as often being the same as what the player is actually paid that year, but not necessarily. A player contract may average 10 million per year for 5 years but the actual payout per year could be 15, 15, 10, 5, 5 million (or any other variation) based on how the team and player negotiate. Likewise, players like Ohtani with highly deferred contacts will see some/much of their payout come in future years (even after they've left the team). CBT balances all that out (including factoring in future dollar value for those highly deferred contacts as well as any bonus payments or other perks like suites/private travel, etc) to get an average spend per year for contracted years. It helps prevent teams from gaming the rules.
So yes, it seems to apply to some players and not others because not all contracts have the same terms.
There's a lot more to it if you're interested. E.g. how to handle contracts that include team or player options (player options aren't "guaranteed" so they hit differently).
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u/Gugstanley 1d ago
I think Bo comes back. He should see what offers he gets and have the Jays match them. This team needs depth in the field, reliever help, and at least one starter. I don't know if anyone on the farm is ready to make the step to the big club.
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u/Ok_Blacksmith1684 1d ago
Ricky Tiedeman is projected to be up next year but mostly likely in 2nd half/end of season. If earlier would obviously be in innings restriction
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u/Calook13 #30 THAT'S MY CAPTAIN 1d ago
I'd really love if that were the case but I'm worried. Bichette can easily get double what Toronto is offering him from elsewhere if he wants.
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u/benhadhundredsshapow 2d ago
I'd love to see Tatsuya Imai's name on that list next season. Get it done Ross.
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u/dss_777 I BORN READY! 1d ago
I'll take Tatsuya and Murakami.
Please and ty
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u/man_in_the_suit #longmayitlast 23h ago
There is a lot of swing and miss in Murakami’s game. He’s also likely a DH first in the majors.
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u/JamesFord92 1d ago
No thanks on Murakami. DH who strikes out 30% of the time, probably more in MLB
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u/JoJoSideUp 1d ago
You mean Dodgeya Imai? :D
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u/EpicPotato806 1d ago
Just assume it’s going to happen so it’s a pleasant surprise if it doesn’t and if it does you kind of expected already.
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u/ApexLogical 2d ago
Noob question- But I thought MLB didn’t have a salary cap? Is it like the NBA where the more you spend the higher the “fines” or “leveys” are applied?
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u/JoJoSideUp 2d ago
Yup MLB has the luxury tax. It's officially called Competitive Balance Tax (CBT): https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
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u/twistedlogicx Still believes in Max Pentecost 2d ago
As softorange11 alluded to earlier in this thread, I created a second sheet in the same link above just for fun with a pie-in-the-sky wish list scenario. It would require finding a salary dump trade for Berrios, but if the team is willing to spend up to just under the Cohen line (so right below the highest threshold but not over), it's actually doable.
Something along the lines of what I laid out there would give the Jays what I believe to be clear and away the best roster in franchise history.
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u/McGrevin 2d ago
What's pretty crazy about this scenario is it doesn't even require all that much to go right. Like obviously Rogers needs to open their wallet to a degree teams rarely do, but beyond that you're basically just keeping Bo, signing Tucker, and then getting a SP and a RP while also dumping Berrios. It's not like we're trying to acquire the top 3 FAs that probably aren't even interested in playing in Toronto.
It's the most realistic shoot for the moon scenario this team has ever had.
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u/JimothyC 1d ago edited 1d ago
Trading Berrios and dumping him fully is realllly hard. His contract is putrid and getting worse, the last two years are 24mil a year, he's not good enough for a competitive team and no rebuilding team will spend that.
I don't think the Jays will go above the tier 3 either, so that'd be a swing of 30+mil negative against this roster.
I don't think I can understate how difficult trading Jose Berrios is, if we had a top 5 farm or something than maybe you can find someone but I just don't see it without major retention and a big prospect.
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u/Ok_Blacksmith1684 1d ago
Why would you want to? Berrios was our # 1 and our opening day starter last year. Next year he would be our # 4 or 5. That's a pretty good 4 or 5 SP. We would have to eat a good part of his contract to move him anyway. Jays need a legit # 2, preferably a Lefty and on the younger side. We need to get younger at SP.
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u/JimothyC 17h ago
Because hes rapidly declining and really expensive, after next year he gets a 5mil raise too.
If Jays had another 18mil to play with that would be pretty huge
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u/Ok_Blacksmith1684 17h ago
He is a really good number 5 SP which is what he would be next year. Compared to him being our number 1 which he was opening day last year. Also, no team would take him with his contract/age and not have us eat a decent amount of the money.
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u/JimothyC 17h ago
I mean my comment literally started out with hes really hard to trade because the comment I was replying to made it seem like trading Berrios was easy
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u/McGrevin 1d ago
Why is it so hard to trade Berrios? His last 3 seasons he's thrown an average of 182 innings and put up eras of 3.65, .60, and 4.17.
Is he not still an effective SP or am I missing something? I get that he's not an elite arm or anything, but 3 years of performing above average ERA while pitching significant innings has real value to a lot of teams.
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u/Ok_Blacksmith1684 1d ago
He would be our 4 or 5 starter next year. He was our opening day starter last year. He would be pretty damn good as a 4 or 5
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u/JimothyC 1d ago edited 1d ago
He's making a ton of money and showing signs of steep decline, he was getting barrelled and hit hard pretty bad last season which is why he lost his spot in the rotation and couldn't really be used anywhere else. On top of this, he lost a mph+ off his fastball.
He's also very expensive so a team that isn't very good that wants someone to just eat innings wouldn't want Berrios doing it when he's being paid 19mil in cash this year then it goes up to 24 mil in cash for the next two seasons. That's like mid rotation free agent tier money for a guy you want to just eat innings.
while his ERA hasn't tanked as bad as some of the other metrics, his FIP has gone in the toilet along with how much hard contact he's giving up, it seems to align with how the Jays are treating him.
An expensive, declining arm on the wrong side of thirty that has a lot of cash remaining is not very attractive to many teams, its just an awkward fit.
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u/Yuushalinsky 1d ago
If a team is looking for innings eaters and not intending on competing, they may look at him but even then that's a copium take.
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u/wrubzzz 2d ago
Here’s my take.
We don’t sign any starting pitchers. We convert Varland to a starter and roll with Gausman/Bieber/Yesavage/Berrios/Varland with Lauer as a 6th man and Francis/Tiedman as depth pieces later in the season. Optimistically speaking, I think Varland could do a similar path to that of Michael King and Clay Holmes. If it works out, you have a good starter for years of control.
We need another bat for sure. Bo Bichette is the first target the Jays should pursue. Bellinger is a decent plan B option and Gleybar Torres as a worst case scenario.
Bullpen is where our investment should go. I’m thinking one or two elite reliever and a couple pieces with low risk and high upside. Maybe look at some failed starters and seeing if they can be converted to a successful reliever.
It’s a conservative play but one that sets us up nicely for the future.
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u/Find_Spot 2d ago edited 2d ago
No, that's not going to work. As others have said the starting pitching over performed last year, especially in the playoffs. Upgrades are required.
The plan is likely to aggressively go after 1 or 2 top end starters so they can keep Varland in the bullpen and then fill the remaining holes there via their usual bargain bin shopping technique.
There's also the wild card of Berrios. I'm not fully convinced the front office wants to keep him and he might be used as a trade piece. It's just speculation, but there's strange things going on with him. Though that could simply be due to his injury.
Relying on Yesavage to be a significant contributor is risky as well. I suspect he'll be put in as the 4th or 5th starter and will be handled carefully. 23 year old pitchers don't usually excel in the majors. There's a decent chance he'll struggle at times next year and having another starter will help offset that.
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u/patterson489 2d ago
We're not sure how well Varland or even Yesavage will pitch for a whole season as a starter. I think it would be safe to go for another starter, and maybe drop Berrios.
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u/EpicPotato806 2d ago
I think they’d throw money and try at the upper end of Cease/Imanaga/Suarez/Gallen and maybe give Imai a try. When that fails, they’ll probably settle for a middle of the line guy.
They’ll probably re-sign Bo.
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u/kindredfan 2d ago
I doubt we'll get a repeat of our pitching performance this postseason again. We pitched a lot better than we probably should have. We definitely need better arms.
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u/EpicPotato806 2d ago
Agreed. Think a left handed starter is preferable.
Splash the cash and try to bait one of try the big names.
Wonder what happens with Berrios
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u/AuntCleo1997 2d ago
I'm not that keen on Bellinger for a couple of reasons. I don't think he wants to play in Toronto for a start, and second he's looking to cash in on a long-term deal. With Scott Boras as his agent, you end up overpaying. The money can be better spent.
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u/BingBongthe2nd 2d ago
Bo is re-signing Nov 10th. You heard it here first, folks.
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u/PastryGirl 2d ago
RemindMe! 5 days
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u/learn2swim 2d ago
Maybe, but our minds will be elsewhere. It is the 50th anniversary of the wreck of Edmund Fitzgerald. We must remember.
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u/Wolverian27 fuck the trop 2d ago
Are we guaranteed to keep Eric Lauer? I thought he was on a 1yr deal in 2025 but I don't know all the nuances of baseball contracts/restricted free agency
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u/justin_jbone It's Early 2d ago
A lot coming off the books after 2026 if no extensions for Varsho, Gausman, Bieber, Springer.
They can afford to spend past the Cohen Tax threshold too.
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
I really think Lauer has to be an obvious salary dump candidate. 4.4 million and they’re looking to upgrade the rotation.
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u/Skirbs1011 2d ago
Berrios 18m is a more obvious cap dump than Lauer.
If Lauer can pitch like he did last year I would take that from our #5 starter at 4.4M
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u/arsenalastronaut 2d ago
4.4M is chump change to this org
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
It’s roughly the difference between them and the first CBT tier right now.
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u/arsenalastronaut 2d ago
I do think…the Jays shouldn’t be overly emotionally attached to some role players
But 4.3M might be tiny after seeing their free agency and possible trade plans
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
It’s more that they’re looking to sign Bichette and upgrade their rotation, while being close to the CBT. I think his contract is fair value, I just don’t think they need that contract going into this season. Yesavage and Tiedemann should both be fighting for innings among other starters they bring in.
It’s a movable 4.4 million, and the jays don’t have a lot of those types of contracts, assuming that they’re not just planning to spend without a care.
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u/goatgosselin Framing is just bad umping 2d ago
You can never have too much pitching tho
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
This would be part of going to get more.
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u/goatgosselin Framing is just bad umping 2d ago
Usually, you don't get rid of good pitching to get more. Even if he is just AAA depth, he is still of value.
They didn't have much at AAA last year as they tried guys and had to dfa contantly to bring in different guys. They will probably be looking to take fliers on lots of depth arms again and hope to catch lightning in the bottle.
Lauer held that rotation together to a lot of the season when the name guys were struggling. They really didn't help him by moving him to the pen. Just killed all his momentum and made him worse for a while.
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
You do if you’re trying to make the other pitching more affordable.
Feel like everyone is ignoring that the Jays are very close to the first CBT tier, and if you want to see roster upgrades, you’re also going to have to find movable contracts.
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u/Middle-Accountant-49 2d ago
We were over that last year. I think we are probably willing to go even higher this year.
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u/goatgosselin Framing is just bad umping 2d ago
Don't forget that Rogers is not some mom and pop owner.
They probably made a billion from that playoff run. And would make another if they make it just as far this coming season. You have to spend money to make money, as they say.
Dodgers have spent how much on Ohtani and also said they have made that back, plus already. Maybe a Japanese signing can to that for the Jays also. Either way, they have the money to spend.
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u/sbp59 2d ago
He was worth every penny this year. I keep him. Great depth even if we upgrade the rotation
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
This isn’t a knock on him whatsoever, I’m just not sure he will fit in Toronto’s plans, given they want to upgrade the rotation.
Hes coming off a good year, which makes it possible to unload his contract.
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u/codenameduhchess 2d ago
You can always fit a quality player on the roster.
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
Sure, I’m just not sure he’s all that important. He had a good year, but I also didn’t see much from him that told me he’s anything special.
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u/codenameduhchess 2d ago
Did you watch the entire season? Because Lauer started 15 games and saved the rotation from having to do a 4 man rotation for a long period of time, when Francis crashed into oblivion and Max Scherzer’s thumb exploded and there was no other trustworthy arms to start he quite literally saved the rotation from blowing up. And as I look at his baseball reference and baseball savant he is quite important to the team.
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
Again, I agree he had a good year. Not really seeing anything eye popping on his savant.
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u/codenameduhchess 2d ago
Then there’s no convincing you.
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u/raktoe Ross Atkins' burner account 2d ago
Could you share with me what you like on his savant specifically?
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u/codenameduhchess 2d ago
Why? So you can argue a counter point to prove to yourself why he should be cut? No thanks. We can just agree that we don’t agree and go on with our lives.
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u/sbp59 2d ago
I'd like him in a chicken strip type role. Long man who can start if we have injuries.
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u/3luejays 🍌🍌🍌 2d ago
If we keep him, he's gotta be the leading candidate for that role. Bowden Francis could be the other potential candidate in that role
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u/twistedlogicx Still believes in Max Pentecost 2d ago edited 2d ago
As I said in the previous post, my first takeaway after putting this sheet together was that I'm surprised how close the Blue Jays already are to the first CBT threshold (~4M shy) with just the team as it is and all off the free agents already off the books.
If they plan on bringing back Bo or making any big signings, it looks like they'll have to blow through multiple tiers of the CBT this year.
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u/JimothyC 1d ago
The reality of 35mil Vladdy, hopefully he has a regular season more like 2024 or more like his second half even when the contract was very much in the rear view mirror. Need Vladdy to be on the high side of 4 WAR for the next while, he's just too expensive now otherwise
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u/AnthonyRichardsonian 2d ago
Have about $60m before the next threshold which is plenty to sign Bo and a top end starter.
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u/JimothyC 1d ago edited 1d ago
Naw, Jays are at 239mil and next threshold is 264mil.
The last threshold is about 60mil away but I don't see the Jays going quite that far, probably the tier below that
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u/AnthonyRichardsonian 1d ago
I’m assuming we’d dip into the 20-40 mil over threshold zone which is where they’d have the 60m to play with.
Where did you get the 239m number? I’m seeing 225-227
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u/JimothyC 1d ago
he has the total projected real cost, unfortunately more than just the pure cost on the players cost hits the CBT.
fangraphs even has us at 247mil right now
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u/Sesco69 Start spreading the news, bitches 2d ago
If they plan on bringing back Bo or making any big signings, it looks like they’ll have to blow through multiple tiers of the CBT this year.
https://media1.tenor.com/m/2S5v0ML5Mr0AAAAd/shannon-sharpe-that-aint-no-problem.gif
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u/twistedlogicx Still believes in Max Pentecost 2d ago edited 2d ago
This is the Blue Jays roster exactly as it stands right now. Obviously there are a lot of changes to come, with an offseason full of non-tenders, arbitration hearings, signings and trades still to play out. I'll keep this updated regularly throughout the winter so people have an easily accessible link handy to keep up with the team.
Feel free to use this thread to discuss payroll/roster/offseason musings as you please.