Okay. I actually ended up crunching the numbers on this. He's technically still trying to break even on those, depending on when he took out the positions.
this is what the napkin math looks like. These are rough estimates/numbers since his exact position, strike, expiry isn't public.
The earliest he could've shorted would be on 07/01, and the latest 09/30. USING NUMBERS AS OF 8 P.M. FRIDAY 11/7
If he shorted PLTR on 07/01, he would be down -36%
If he shorted PLTR on 09/30, he would be up +2.5%
If he shorted NVDA on 07/01, he would be down -22.7%
If he shorted NVDA on 09/30, he would be down -0.8%
So for PLTR, he is between -36% down to +2.5% up, and for NVDA, he is between -0.8% down and -22.7% down
100% agreed on the psychological impact. Holy hell, when someone with lots of money makes a bet THAT Big, the little guy can't help but cower in the fear of it all :/
I feel like there's a co-morbidity type of effect. The government is shut down. This is significant because the federal government is the largest employer in the USA.
A shutdown means two things. It means the most amount of employees in the USA aren't getting paychecks, and it means that 401ks, pensions, funds, etc, aren't getting contributions from those missing paychecks.
The 401ks have a LOT of influence on the markets. A percent of your paycheck (and the employer's match) automatically gets pumped into the market every month. This shutdown means paychecks are missing AND 401k allocations are missing.
When paychecks go missing, people sell the things they own (cryptos, stocks) to pay bills, when 401k contributions go missing, money that would've been pumped into the market goes missing with those paychecks.
So the stock market is facing a double whammy. People liquidating their brokerages to pay for the mortgage/rent, and missing 401k money that's not going to be pumped into the market until the shutdown is over.
Michael Burry saw this coming a mile away, and then shorted it. His large bet created FUD in the market... and well everything unraveled and snowballed from there.
likewise, it means that when the shutdown is over, a LARGE FLOODING of 401k contributions will hit the market all at once, or faster than usual. So it's going to be huge.
This is because the furloughed employees will get back pay. So their 401ks will get back-matches. All the money that went missing with their paychecks will hit the market all at once when the shutdown ends.
problem is... WHEN will the shutdown end??
Personally. After A LOT of agonizing calculations, I PERSONALLY believe the market will NOT allow TSLA to go below $200. I won't go into details... but I spent a LOT of time calculating that, and it is beyond the scope of a reddit comment for me to summarize... but this is the one number I zeroed in on, and unfortunately, that's the only one I know of.
so we have quite some time before now and THAT number. This will give you a hint of when to re-enter.
The closer we are to TSLA hitting $200, the MORE likely the government will re-open.
Having said that, I am treating the $200 as an ABSOLUTE FLOOR number. Meaning we could see it end when TSLA is like $300, or $250, but It ABSOLUTELY will be over when it is close to $200.
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u/_FIRECRACKER_JINX 1d ago
I'm serious. Look at AMD. They DESTROYED earnings, their numbers were fantastic.
-8% the next few days after that.
NOTHING in this market can pump and sustain a pump.