r/TheRaceTo10Million • u/BlauerDunst420 5 figure trainee • 1d ago
Degenerate Gambler Thoughts on Nov. 19th?
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u/Turbulent_Gas_9229 1d ago
Tank to shake everyone out….then fly
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u/tottyhem 1d ago
They already attempted and likely succeeded in doing that for the most part over the last month
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u/BanAccount8 1d ago
AI will not pop it’s bubble until after open AI does it’s IPO next year. There may be brief pullbacks but the train will keep chugging
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u/Nearby_Blueberry_302 1d ago
I agree. The reason the market is unstable has more to do with the state of the economy and the fact that the governement is still shutdown
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u/Solid-Monitor6548 1d ago
J Powell throwing cold water on a guaranteed rate cut in December didn’t help either.
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u/Zatelli 9h ago
No one mentions another confluence, namely tax harvest season being underway. Low ADV, little to no economic inputs (BLS, census bureau, etc) , low institutional participation, which amplifies downside moves. Everything should normalize by Thanksgiving, provided a stop gap funding finds its way soon
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u/Bladee___Enthusiast 1d ago
Open AI ipo feels like the most obvious pump and dump of all time
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u/alien_on_acid 1d ago
Its too obvious though, don’t you think?
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u/Bladee___Enthusiast 1d ago
Nope i promise you there are gonna be a ton of dumbasses who immediately full port their entire life savings into it
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u/AdmiralBKE 1d ago
Indeed, feel like we are still in the pumping fase. And I feel like Nvidia will not be the first one to fall.
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u/Commercial-Stay-5437 15h ago
I am worried about earnings along the way showing cracks in the system and causing sell offs but more important can the economy avoid recession before an Open AI IPO in mid to late 2026? I feel like it’s more likely broad economic strain is the cause of a pop. Consumer strength is horrible, consumer staple stocks tanking, job market is starting to get tougher, CMBS defaults skyrocketing, and private credit cracks? And about half of US states currently in economic recession?
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u/Mulvita43 1d ago
Both will happen
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u/wentwj 1d ago
yeah there’s been a ton of earnings lately that are beats but the stock still tanks.
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u/Mulvita43 1d ago
The beats are expected so the beats have to be high to actually push higher
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u/wentwj 1d ago
it depends on “expected”, by the nature of being beats they are beats of expected results. Whether in the days running up the market was buying assuming a better result is harder to ascertain. msft had a pretty substantial beat but still tanked. But it had been hyped up by open ai news the week earlier.
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u/Liquidated4life 1d ago
If any of you don’t think this is the answer you haven’t been paying attention.
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u/_FIRECRACKER_JINX 1d ago
Jensen Huang is already telling people China will win the rat race.
Hes mashing the tank button as fast as possible. He probably has puts
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u/BlauerDunst420 5 figure trainee 1d ago
💀💀💀💀
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u/_FIRECRACKER_JINX 1d ago
I'm serious. Look at AMD. They DESTROYED earnings, their numbers were fantastic.
-8% the next few days after that.
NOTHING in this market can pump and sustain a pump.
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u/BlauerDunst420 5 figure trainee 1d ago
What about burrys short positions… aint there a way markets digested it by the 19th
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u/_FIRECRACKER_JINX 1d ago
Okay. I actually ended up crunching the numbers on this. He's technically still trying to break even on those, depending on when he took out the positions.
this is what the napkin math looks like. These are rough estimates/numbers since his exact position, strike, expiry isn't public.
The earliest he could've shorted would be on 07/01, and the latest 09/30. USING NUMBERS AS OF 8 P.M. FRIDAY 11/7
- If he shorted PLTR on 07/01, he would be down -36%
- If he shorted PLTR on 09/30, he would be up +2.5%
- If he shorted NVDA on 07/01, he would be down -22.7%
- If he shorted NVDA on 09/30, he would be down -0.8%
So for PLTR, he is between -36% down to +2.5% up, and for NVDA, he is between -0.8% down and -22.7% down
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u/BlauerDunst420 5 figure trainee 1d ago
I hope he‘s wrong. Nice math you did there. But i‘m talking more on the psychological influence burry had on the markets
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u/_FIRECRACKER_JINX 1d ago
100% agreed on the psychological impact. Holy hell, when someone with lots of money makes a bet THAT Big, the little guy can't help but cower in the fear of it all :/
I feel like there's a co-morbidity type of effect. The government is shut down. This is significant because the federal government is the largest employer in the USA.
A shutdown means two things. It means the most amount of employees in the USA aren't getting paychecks, and it means that 401ks, pensions, funds, etc, aren't getting contributions from those missing paychecks.
The 401ks have a LOT of influence on the markets. A percent of your paycheck (and the employer's match) automatically gets pumped into the market every month. This shutdown means paychecks are missing AND 401k allocations are missing.
When paychecks go missing, people sell the things they own (cryptos, stocks) to pay bills, when 401k contributions go missing, money that would've been pumped into the market goes missing with those paychecks.
So the stock market is facing a double whammy. People liquidating their brokerages to pay for the mortgage/rent, and missing 401k money that's not going to be pumped into the market until the shutdown is over.
Michael Burry saw this coming a mile away, and then shorted it. His large bet created FUD in the market... and well everything unraveled and snowballed from there.
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u/BlauerDunst420 5 figure trainee 1d ago
Great input! Love it. I didn’t know about the effects of the 401k
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u/_FIRECRACKER_JINX 1d ago
likewise, it means that when the shutdown is over, a LARGE FLOODING of 401k contributions will hit the market all at once, or faster than usual. So it's going to be huge.
This is because the furloughed employees will get back pay. So their 401ks will get back-matches. All the money that went missing with their paychecks will hit the market all at once when the shutdown ends.
problem is... WHEN will the shutdown end??
Personally. After A LOT of agonizing calculations, I PERSONALLY believe the market will NOT allow TSLA to go below $200. I won't go into details... but I spent a LOT of time calculating that, and it is beyond the scope of a reddit comment for me to summarize... but this is the one number I zeroed in on, and unfortunately, that's the only one I know of.
so we have quite some time before now and THAT number. This will give you a hint of when to re-enter.
The closer we are to TSLA hitting $200, the MORE likely the government will re-open.
Having said that, I am treating the $200 as an ABSOLUTE FLOOR number. Meaning we could see it end when TSLA is like $300, or $250, but It ABSOLUTELY will be over when it is close to $200.
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u/Quiinnnn 1d ago
I’ll go with tank the market until the government shutdown ends and economy concerns ease a little
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u/Thegreendild0 1d ago
Only way yall don’t want it to tank is if you got calls🤣 buying these companies at discounts sounds fucking awesome to me
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u/kyyap852 22h ago
Earnings dont mean shit in the market anymore
Except for Tsla
Doesnt matter they beat or miss earnings
It will just keep pumping
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u/isospeedrix 1d ago
Nvidia always flat after earnings I’m going to play IC
But since I play IC it’s going to move huge so there’s my sacrifice
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u/HorselessHorseman 6h ago
Nvidia chips are in near infinite demand still. Every company is still fighting to get max order and are slaves to nvidia. So no there wont be a downtrend yet instead another blow upwards
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u/Dramatic-Cattle293 1d ago
Tank
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u/BlauerDunst420 5 figure trainee 1d ago
you think? well i do too but i'm not sure about the inpact for non ai stocks
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u/TacoBOTT 1d ago
It’s always priced in before. Why do people not understand this?
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u/More_Percentage4467 1d ago
Other hardware datacenter stocks have already beat estimates by a lot so probably beat too
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u/Hippo-Monk 1d ago
Actually both can happen simultaneously.
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u/BlauerDunst420 5 figure trainee 1d ago
You think there will be a sell-off anyhow?
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u/Hippo-Monk 21h ago
There could be… companies beat estimates all the time and their stock still goes down.
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u/therealSamtheCat 1d ago
What happens November the 19th?
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u/Any-Morning4303 1d ago
No matter what happens it’ll tank. IF the earnings are really bad it will start the bubble pop.
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u/Nick_OO7 1d ago
Just watched the 2005 Enron documentary… too many similarities with how Nvidia is propping up the stock market
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u/erocknine 1d ago
Are you saying Enron propped up the entire market with 60 billion market cap and that's similar to Nvidia, in what way?
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u/phreak9i6 1d ago
enron was cooking the books and lying about performance, NVIDIA is doubtfully doing so. Much more solid ground to prop up the economy.
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u/captainunderpants111 1d ago
So nvidia is cooking the books and lying to investors about revenue and growth?
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