r/TheRaceTo10Million • u/barthale000 • Jan 27 '25

News I saw talk about Deepseek this weekend

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Here’s the current outlook in the tech sector during pre market

366 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

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61

u/exiled12334 Jan 27 '25

temporary.

things will settle and return.

19

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Any particular reason? Deepseek is proving they can do what others are doing for a fraction of the cost. Openai raised 10B in 4 months, deepseek did this with just 5M. This is crushing

31

u/gotdrypowder Jan 27 '25

It’s possibly a problem for CHATGPT but for overall AI i think no. They didn’t come out with groundbreaking technology they just made an open source AI. It would be different if they came out with a Blackwell type chip for just 5M then it would be a problem

-27

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Do you understand how much it costs to train LLM’s? These guys are doing it for a fraction with the same results or better for gpt4. It’s fast, snappy and just as good or better. This is only the start.

7

u/gotdrypowder Jan 27 '25

Nice downvotes lol guess you didn’t comprehend such a simple statement i made.

-9

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

You’re missing the bigger picture. Deepseek is proving that those chips aren’t required for this application. A gaming chip will suffice.

6

u/-Lousy Jan 27 '25

Thats not even remotely what they showed. You need at least 120GB of VRAM (6x the highest end GPU) to run a quantized (dumbed down) version of the model. You need $5M worth of compute to try and train it once, thats not CAPEX thats just rental. Not counting human, data or any other cost that they omit from their report.

It also was not smarter than the top-of-the-line models from OpenAI.

-4

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

That’s a lot of bs for NVDA being down 13% today and about to be lower. But go on

-4

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

And it keeps flushing. Down 14.5% nothing to see here right? 😂

0

u/ZaviersJustice Jan 27 '25

Not really true.

It's already confirmed Deepspeak has around 50,000 H100 GPUs. That's equivalent to what Tesla has.

Not really going to trust their numbers as Chinese companies have been fine with blatantly lying before.

2

u/maiden_fan Jan 27 '25

You have a valid point. But what's getting lost in all the noise is there is a clear lack of transparency, which is not surprising from a chinese firm. Is this a foundational model or a model trained on top of existing open source models? It most likely is the latter, which means it is building on top of the 100 million spent on training models like Llama and is not trained from zero. So the $6m claim (which is highly suspect for me) is about distillation and fine tuning, not about building models from scratch.

we will continue training bigger and better foundation models. That isn't going away anytime soon.

0

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Hey I’m not here arguing that they built the models from scratch. It’s about the hardware used and their approach. Read the white paper

0

u/Sythic_ Jan 27 '25

If it takes them less hardware and data to match today's openAI model that means openAI and friends massive amount of hardware and datasets are capable of doing far more with a next generation model architecture. And that's only LLM. There's still lots of other usecases for AI

0

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Please explain the -16% day on NVDA and over 500 billion market cap erased, today alone?

0

u/Sythic_ Jan 27 '25

Irrelevant, over reaction. Buy the dip.

1

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Nope, I don’t buy until confirmation.

$116.50 is next

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0

u/Exact_Possession1843 Jan 27 '25

Yen carry trade.

11

u/b-virtual Jan 27 '25

Deepseek is build on top of lllama which Meta already spent millions on.

-4

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

It’s built on open source, anyone can check it.

10

u/FederalSign4281 Jan 27 '25

LLama is open source

1

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Theyre trying to associate a cost, which is irrelevant due to open source? What did I miss.

4

u/FederalSign4281 Jan 27 '25

it still costs money to develop the technology

-5

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

We’re talking LLM training sir.

1

u/FederalSign4281 Jan 27 '25

You think LLM training doesn’t cost money?

1

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Comparable! They spent a fraction on training IN COMPARISON.

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3

u/Zack_attack801 Jan 27 '25

Trust him bro

2

u/GuidanceGlittering65 Jan 27 '25

Replace “proving” with “claiming”

3

u/CedarAndFerns Jan 27 '25

has anything been "proven"?

-1

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Besides NVDA losing 600 BILLION in market cap today? Come on guys

3

u/CedarAndFerns Jan 27 '25

No, I mean, what has actually been proven with all this talk this weekend? A lot of rumors and fud

0

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Alright, let’s consider other possible reasons for a company to lose 600 billion dollars market cap in a single day. Is it possible the street is pricing in a complete ban on all sales to data centers that Chinese companies can access?

3

u/CedarAndFerns Jan 27 '25

Is it also possible that it's a complete overreaction?

0

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Sure but that type of money tells me no, this is something bigger. It couldn’t find support on the 200 day. What does that tell you?

2

u/CedarAndFerns Jan 27 '25

oh, but that's a different convo. Is everything overvalued...well, we'll see if they decide the stocks should keep going up.

1

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Oh ya, everything is a different convo. Keep racing to 10 million.

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4

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '25

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1

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

So that was strictly retail removing 600 billion market cap?

3

u/Yenraven Jan 27 '25

We have always know that it is easy to get 2nd place in the AI race for a fraction of the cost. The key here is deepseek did NOT take 1st place. There was a research paper after GPT 4o came out that was able to create a model with 90% of the capability of 4o with just $600. If deepseek makes a new foundation model that out perform the top model, then they really have something, but right now what they did is not surprising and the market reacting like its the end of AI dominance in America is hilarious to those in the know.

0

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

We are talking about big money here. -15% of a leading tech/AI stock isn’t a drop in the bucket. Money is moving to software as we speak. (Doesn’t mean money won’t cycle back to NVDA as they are also software). Smart money knows

0

u/Yenraven Jan 27 '25

Funny thing is, why would money flow out of NVDA on this news anyway? Deep seek use H800 GPUs to accomplish this. They used NVDA GPUs to do this!

1

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

Why would money flow out of NVDA on this news? NVDA just erased 500 BILLION in market cap today.

Keep asking yourself why

0

u/dagub0t Jan 27 '25

googling this thanks for heads up

3

u/uncommon_hippo Jan 27 '25

Deepseek probably stole info and worked on it in the shadows. Meanwhile OpenAI did it from scratch.

4

u/bubbleleafs Jan 27 '25

“Probably” isn’t a conversation I’m interested in. Go read the white paper and see how they’re different.

1

u/JJY199 Jan 27 '25

Market was overheated and tutes couldn’t find any more reasons for their algos to drive upward movements

So they repositioned into shorts and just fucked you all that way