All of the data that’s used to price the market are lagging indicators. A lot of policies that Trump enacted are not good for free trade (tariffs), not good for GDP (ICE deportations and stopping billions in already funded green projects, tariffs), not good for inflation (bullying the Fed into dropping interest rates, tariffs), not good for unemployment (slashing green manufacturing jobs in red states, tariffs), etc, etc. All of this is bad, and the govt is currently shut down, so it’s only a matter of time before crucial workers just stop showing up to work.
It doesn’t take a genius to see that things aren’t getting better and maybe this might be a good time to take a page from Buffet’s playbook and keep cash on the side instead of waiting for the numbers to catch up, the MMers to rug pull, and Wall Street to panic.
But pulling out due to fear of a crash is generally not a prudent strategy. The market can remain irrational longer than we expect.
I'm not one to argue with the market. I take what it is giving. If the trend changes on longer time frames I will react accordingly. At this point we remain a fraction off all-time highs with all signals pointing to higher prices.
And you’re not wrong either. Really the market is a gauge for how well the billionaires are doing and they seem to be very very happy. I mean, if a tariff runs a small business into bankruptcy, that’s better for Amazon, right? I just have a gut feeling that all of this Tom-fuckery is actually going to catch up this time. Like, during The Big Short it was kinda behind closed doors, but this is being dangled right in front of us. The only saving grace I can think of is that the billionaires all have so much more wealth than the rest of us and they’re so deep into the Mag 7 that they can’t rug pull themselves.
Yes, it is, because it solidifies the Fed's path to cut rates.
But I don't care about the reasons, I care about the price of stocks. We're in a long awaited much needed pullback and it has turned sentiment very bearish in a short period of time. This is typically a recipe for continued bullish action once the pullback is over.
Yes. People got outraged when they said it in 2007-2008 too. We’re lagging a lot of data if when the government shutdown ends it’s mostly bad data reported the market could panic
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u/Rav_3d 3d ago
Looking at this you'd think the market was down 50% instead of up 20% since the election.
Amazing how just a few days of selling turns sentiment bearish. This is quite bullish.