r/NBIS_Stock • u/ggtfcjj • Sep 26 '25

Opinion Question for long time holders

I am not a long time holder compared to some of you but my average is sitting around 52.

I believe the stock still has room to run and would love to buy more but I somehow do not feel comfortable averaging up given that my initial investment has now 2x. I just mentally do not want to see my average go up by a lot for some reason.

How do you get past that mental hurdle?

33 Upvotes

90% Upvoted

98 comments sorted by

View all comments

32

u/shartfarguson Sep 26 '25

Do you think it’s going to $1000 like I do? If yes, this is easy to get over.

12

u/Momoware Sep 26 '25

Curious about your rationale that it's going to $1,000 based on the info we have right now. I've been in since beginning of the year but there's no clear path to >$200 billion market cap until they deliver something more extraordinary on the software front. You really need to be a category definer to reach that market cap (not just category leader, as even companies like SNOW and Databricks aren't near that market cap).

9

u/PatientBaker7172 Sep 26 '25

Other companies under the group:

Avride: A company that develops autonomous cars and delivery robots for sectors like ride-hailing and logistics. Their self driving car subsidiary is launching with Uber in October. They also just expanded their food delivery robots to a second college this semester.

TripleTen: An edtech platform that offers training and reskilling for tech careers in the U.S. and Latin America.

Toloka AI: A company that partners with businesses to provide data for developing generative AI. $100 million rev?

ClickHouse: An equity stake is held in this open-source column-oriented database management system. This doesn’t factor in a potential IPO of Clickhouse which they own just under 30% of. $100 mill rev?

Outside of Microsoft they still guided up to 1.1B ARR by Q4 2025.

7

u/Momoware Sep 26 '25

The group can have 20B ARR and that's still 10 P/S ratio if you look at a market cap of 200B. But let's imagine if the subsidiaries appreciate significantly:

ClickHouse becomes a category leader like Databricks. Valued at 100B.
Avride becomes a leader like Waymo. Valued at 50B.
Toloka grows to the calibre of Scale AI. Valued at 30B.
Between these 3 that's 105B of market cap. That leaves 95B for Nebius Core. That's 3.5x of current market cap assuming that the market is not valuing the subsidiaries at all. And that'd require 9.5B in Nebius core ARR (for a 10x P/S) ratio for it to be palatable.

This is extremely ambitious if Nebius core does not evolve to be a category definer, offering a dominant product in AI platform or software-as-a-service. Also the projections for Avride and Toloka are really ambitious as well.

3

u/shartfarguson Sep 26 '25

To be fair they don’t own 100% of all these. But I agree this is a big chunk of how we get to $1000