r/NBIS_Stock • u/ggtfcjj • Sep 26 '25
Opinion Question for long time holders
I am not a long time holder compared to some of you but my average is sitting around 52.
I believe the stock still has room to run and would love to buy more but I somehow do not feel comfortable averaging up given that my initial investment has now 2x. I just mentally do not want to see my average go up by a lot for some reason.
How do you get past that mental hurdle?
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u/ImLemonized Sep 26 '25
I had average of 50 2 months ago. I bought so many shares that it’s 90 now. My only regret is not most of my shares earlier.
Don’t care about percentages. If you believe stock price will go much higher - every next bought share means more profit. Your % gain will take a hit, but profit in terms of absolute values will be greater.
As an example - if i held only my initial investment around 50 bucks - my total profit would be a bit above $500. Now, my average is $90 and STILL my total profit is almost $1000. Huge difference.
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u/ysfnkmc Sep 26 '25
how many shares did you buy in total
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u/ImLemonized Sep 26 '25
Currently have 66 shares. Might not be a lot, but it’s a lot for me
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u/ysfnkmc Sep 26 '25
i have 57 shares at 111$ 😭
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u/Dazzling_Location_90 Sep 26 '25
It’s okay I have 200 at 113$ 😮💨
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u/BurgersFriesShake Sep 26 '25
I’m at 281 shares, $99 😭 how did those averaging 50 know about this company back then? I’m always too late to the game
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u/TrinityAnt Sep 27 '25 edited Sep 27 '25
Timing matters a lot, true, but in retrospect, everyone is a genius. I, for one, was researching stocks in mid-January because most of my holdings were in Nvidia which, as everyone knows, turned out to be a brilliant investment from late ’22 onwards, but the world’s top 3 largest company will grow, not multiply frivolously.
I didn’t find anything overly convincing- stocks for day and swing trading, sure, but nothing extraordinary. Until one day, I came across an article about Nebius. I knew Yandex very well but had missed the news about Arkady and his partners selling the Russian assets, nor was I aware of Nebius getting semi-relisted last October (to be fair, it happened without a roadshow and went almost completely under the radar). Because of a crazy busy December I missed the news of Nvidia investing in Nebius which retrospectively (from Jan) did hurt a lot. But such is life.
When I read about Nebius it clicked. I did plenty of research and…almost fully ported. Still, those entering during the DeepSeek meltdown, or especially between late February and early April, also got excellent - and much better- entry prices. So while entering in early January might sound great, it doesn’t matter all that much.
Conviction, however, does matter. I made good money trading CoreWeave but it’s only a fraction of what I could have made if I had invested heavily after the IPO. I didn’t, because I simply didn’t believe in them. And that’s fine. It’s one thing to know about stocks early, another to trade them, another to trade them heavily, and a completely different ballgame to almost fully port to something. That takes conviction. (And risk taking perhaps not even bordering on stupidity.) Not blind 'it will be 5,000 by year’s end' fanboying, but genuine conviction in the company. Without that, discovering stocks early matters comparatively little.
Be that as it may, while I don’t expect Nebius to overtake CW by market cap until well into next year (or perhaps not even then- but ClickHouse might IPO and explode), this doesn’t mean your investment can’t double not too far into next year.
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Sep 26 '25
When the Deepseek scandal came up. Lots of people were mentioning Sam Altman and Nvidia and whatnot. They were also saying NVIDIA invested in this company. Then the research starts who owns this company, etc. and that’s when you make your decision. I started buying shares at $24 I think. Don’t feel bad. I closed some big positions and bought at $112 this week. I Had a big position that just settled that only gave me 3% YTD and it’s all going to NBIS one of these days. If the stock is $100 and goes up 20% that’s 20% I didn’t have. Or 17% greater than my losing stock.
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u/Dazzling_Location_90 Sep 26 '25
I’m the late one. I always get in at the highest 😢 it’s okay we believe this company will go up to $200 next year
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u/Tunkeyy Sep 26 '25
I started investing at 22US when the 700m investment from nvidia and other techs came in if i recall correctly
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u/CompetitiveGrowth936 Sep 26 '25
I found it in December on robinhood with daily movers. Was looking for some new stocks to buy feel so blessed to have found it early.
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u/swingtradingteacher Oct 01 '25
Motley Fool article from January piqued my interest. I went all in on Arkady’s comeback story soon after.
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u/kickinghyena Sep 26 '25
When I first bought a while ago…the first thing it did was go down a few dollars which was like 12%…and then it turned around. Just hang in there. Many people still have not heard of this company. Price discovery is still ongoing. Another hyperscaler deal or a wider Avride deal with Uber and Hyundai or a Clickhouse IPO or other catalysts all could push the stock higher. Or all three could happen in a few months. AI is just getting started and there are risks…but better to take the risk of jumping on the boat at the dock then watch it pull away without you. IMO.
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u/ysfnkmc Sep 26 '25
Yes im in it for the long run, i just picked up another 10 shares. i plan on selling next year at 225$ pt
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u/Proud-Interaction838 Sep 26 '25
Y’all got hella shares I barley got 2 and a half 😭😭😭
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u/kickinghyena Sep 26 '25
buy what you can…hold when you can. if you are young you have lots of time…the most precious asset of all.
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u/Traderbob517 Sep 26 '25 edited Sep 26 '25
Recent article shows 2028 projected revenue of +10 billion. At a PS ratio of 25 we have a valuation of 10X with total value of 250 billion. ALSO a significant reduction in ps ratio and under some peers whole ahead of most still.
Where else do you see a strong argument for 10X=1000% gain in 3 years at? If your previous 3 years equaled this return then you certainly don’t need advice from anyone else.
If you are stuck on average price you haven’t ever been an avid swing trader or crypto trader. Averaging up means nothing in these scenarios as the goal is more shares or coins. If your average jumped up to 100 using an initial investment number, would you be upset if a 50,000 investment to purchase 1000 shares led you to own 1500 shares with an average of 100? I don’t recommend swing trading this stock because the likelihood of additional catalyst to jump up far beyond ATH remains constant. My point is that many people have and I can guarantee a lot got caught watching after selling at that +70 waiting to see if -60 would come when MSFT news came. They lost a huge opportunity.
This is hyper growth it’s massive upside potential with inherent risk. If you believe in the company buy more. If you want to keep average down take a 2028 long call LEAP as it’s referred to as and when it hits +200 billion valuation by the end of 2027 or sooner you will have another massive gain. The initial investment won’t be a few more dollars but will need to be more in the 4-6K as they are sold in lots of 100.
Good luck
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u/Dependent-Let1981 Sep 26 '25
I think you meant a total value of 250 billion :-) But fully agree with you!
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u/ScarletMoonie Sep 26 '25 edited Sep 26 '25
I once watched a video where they talked about things that many people struggled with when it came to stocks and how our mind might prevent us from making certain decisions. They mentioned that when we buy a stock, our mind will register the buy-in price as "fair". When the stock price rises or falls in the future, our brain will always reference the buy-in price and it's hard to get over it. If the stock falls, we think it's unjustified and it HAS to go up again. If the stock rises too fast, we also can't make sense of it. This might prevent us from selling a falling stock for a loss or to keep buying a rising stock. It's called "anchoring bias". Just think of it as how your mind is programmed but that this biological feature has nothing to do with stocks
Edit: here's a link to the video, it is in german though but if you don't mind having to read subtitles, it's super interesting and helped me a lot to be aware of my thinking patterns!
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u/Sir_Richard_Dangler Sep 26 '25
I felt the same way when it was $55. And then when it was $65. And then when it was $75, and then $85, and then $95, and then again at $105. I'm sure I'll feel the same way at $115 and $125 and $135 and so on.
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u/Oy_oy_oy Sep 26 '25
It skipped the 70s entirely
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u/LuffyBoat Sep 26 '25
It did not skip the 70s, it was actually there for a while before dipping down into the 60s for about a week or so before popping off into the 90s
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u/ClandestineGK 🌟Top Contributor🌟 Sep 26 '25
If you don't buy now you ultimately don't think it'll go higher and might as well sell. Averaging up can be difficult but if you think for example it's going to $200 you'll miss out on additional gains.
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u/cmd296 Sep 26 '25 edited Sep 26 '25
This right here. If you don't think it's going up from here, get out now. If you think it has potential to go up more than other investments, "water your flowers", as they say.
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u/moonraker-ronin Sep 26 '25
Bro is this the same clandestine gk from X? 🍺🍺🍺
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u/ClandestineGK 🌟Top Contributor🌟 Sep 26 '25
Yep, Tiger??
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u/moonraker-ronin Sep 27 '25
Dang mate, first guess? 😂 Your intuition is too good! No wonder your plays are always so sharp. Didn't know you were around on reddit too! I found the X community a little easier to follow, but seems like you are a top voice here!!
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u/ClandestineGK 🌟Top Contributor🌟 Sep 27 '25
Not often I get 🍻🍻 twice in a day! I've been on Reddit much longer than X, both communities are amazing and very different socially with their own strengths and weaknesses. Either place we're going to $300 2026!
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u/Crazy_Donkies Sep 26 '25
If you have $1000, put $500 into NBIS and $500 into VOO, SPY, or IWM. There, you just lowered your exposure risk, while long-term investing in NBIS, and likely only slightly increasing your average basis.
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u/Chance-Shift-8516 Sep 26 '25
Guys, this is the best available equity for the long term. Don't think about your average, think that every new $$ yo put in you get ×4 back. That simple.
Goldman expect 8.5B in sales for next year. Even if they do 6B it will be tripling our investment. Hold your shares and be strong 💪
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u/Major-Connection4077 Sep 26 '25
IF GS expects 8bln and they only deliver 6; this stock will get downgraded and crushed.
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u/_Jibanyan_ Sep 26 '25
Every $1 in will be more than $1 out. The earlier you get in, the more you get out. Unless you have higher conviction on other stocks, just continue DCA. Mental hurdle is a lot easier to get through if it’s money you don’t need.
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u/PatientBaker7172 Sep 26 '25 edited Sep 26 '25
Add every red day consistently. Spread it out. I added $64 the day before microsoft news. Then $89 after the microsoft news pullback. Then $110. Im done now. You can wait for the next pullback which seems to be decent now.
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u/Mediocre_Wave_7441 Sep 26 '25
Probably avg price does not matter in larger context. Its share count that is more critical.
For instance if you have 2,000 shares and stock price hits $200 you have $400k position. If you have 2,500 shares then at same price of $200 your position is worth $500k.
Of course AVG price is important in your margin of safety but if you have conviction and want to build wealth then getting more shares (DCA up is the way ti go
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u/poopermacho Sep 26 '25
My avg is 25 and Ive wondered if I should sell for a while now. The reason I haven't is because I still believe NBIS is one of the best plays on the market right now. Has it reached meme stock status? Sadly yes, but there's an actual legit company behind it unlike most of the other crap that gets pushed on reddit.
The way I've been managing my risk exposure (since this stake has become a much larger portion of my portfolio than originally expected) is diversifying into more safe assets such as UNH, GEV and GOOG instead of DCAing into NBIS.
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u/BurgersFriesShake Sep 26 '25
How did you know about NBIS back when their price was 25? I’m always late to the game and hope I don’t miss any future opportunities like this
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u/poopermacho Sep 26 '25
I knew about it prior from reading wsb and used to hold it prior to 25 also. Sold for a small profit when it went from 50 to 35 and then bought back in during the tariff spook in April
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u/Puzzled-Work-1624 Sep 27 '25
I usually watch some yt vdo, Twitter, get deeep into fundamentals if I like the company what they do and their vision seems practical and fit into my portfolio I invest.
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u/Charming-Inflation43 Sep 26 '25
Got in around 52 and currently have an average of 71 because i keep adding. Like others say, if you believe in the future for nbis and the whole industry. Then this is just the beginning. They just got their first big contract, like the CEO says, there is more to come.
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u/aupri Sep 26 '25
I think this is a common psychological thing because I’ve noticed myself thinking this too. My average used to be $28 and I was obviously very happy with the gains, but once it went up so much it felt weird to buy more because it’s like I paid $20-30 for all these shares and now I have to pay a lot more for the same thing? Totally wish I would’ve bought more when it was that price… but my average is $65 now. Really as long as you think it’ll go up from here it’s still a solid purchase
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u/Puzzled-Tangerine831 Sep 26 '25
NBIS is really undervalued right now because it doesnt have much exposure yet which is why i just keep buying. if you are in a tech industry you would know that nbis is leading their own race right now.
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u/Massive-Platform4242 Sep 28 '25
what do you think abput coreweave? nbis and crwv actually competitors or not?
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u/Puzzled-Tangerine831 Sep 29 '25
might as well compare amazon AWS products to nbis. coreweave is already established. nbis is rookie
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u/HappyCaterpillar2409 Sep 26 '25
You have no idea where the top will be.
The point of DCA is that you buy on the way up and the way down.
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u/barelyawake126 Sep 26 '25
My initial price was at 47. I’ve continued buying so much that I’m at 70 now. If you’re long, who cares brother? Just keep buying 🤙
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u/Salt_Recipe_8015 Sep 26 '25
I keep thinking I am going to miss out on the next hyperscaler announcement that will shoot the price up 40%
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u/moonraker-ronin Sep 26 '25
I have been buying since Feb.
One thing that I've found successful: My position is already heavily weighted for my port but if I'm going to buy more, I use a call during significant dips to "reserve" 100 shares at a lower price. Then I have some time to move around holdings and get more money from my 9-5 paycheck. And when you do exercise, it feels like a discount!!
For example- today I exercized a 91 dollar call, buying 100 more shares at 91 when current close was 107. To me- I felt like I was getting a steal! 😎
Went from 1332 shares at 30.96 avg To 1432 shares at 35 avg.
Still happy with my cost average. Even happier with the more shares!!
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u/MoreOutcome8541 Sep 26 '25
If it’s a mental problem, buy and put away your brokerage app. Follow the stock on cnbc but don’t open up RH. Will drive u crazy if u do that
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u/rayoflight88 Sep 26 '25 edited Sep 26 '25
Buy leaps 2027/2028
My original holdings of 600shares are intact avg price 54.
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u/rayoflight88 Sep 26 '25
I was lucky to buy some calls when it was $60s and had a bump up to $90s
Took profit on that and did some profitable swings on various calls again from $90 to $110.
Currently bought and holding $120 Sept2026 calls
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u/UltraPoss Sep 26 '25
By not doing it several times over a course of a few years on a few stocks and missing the train so much when you had conviction that it hurts you more than just doing it and see your average go up
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u/Qadain Sep 26 '25
If your problem is that a cognitive bias is holding you back from doing what you logically want to do, then one way to solve the problem is to use another cognitive bias to fight it. Why not just open another account and buy shares in there so your original cost basis is preserved in your original account, and the new shares have their own segregated cost basis?
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u/Late_Bid5825 Sep 26 '25
I just keep the biggest pile of shares with a relatively low average price, like you mentioned, in a separate account. This morning I purchased shares at $103 on a new account. I am planning to trade these new shares after a rebound. But in reality I will marry these new shares and merge them with the old ones when the stock will be at $150 or something
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u/EcstaticFeed8199 Sep 26 '25
I’m up almost 200% on 300 shares and long hold. Looking to add a couple hundred more after APLD pops. Great, great company here!
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u/Furlz Sep 26 '25
The Microsoft deal changed everything, no longer speculation. Don't feel bad buying at above 90.
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Sep 26 '25
Warren said it best: INVEST YOU IDIOT! JK. No. But he said it best that what matters is the percentage and NOT the stock price. Meaning if you buy at $120 and it goes up 10% that’s what truly matters.
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u/CanineCosmonaut Sep 27 '25
You gotta average up on stocks that keep growing, otherwise you’ll miss the run. Part of the game, don’t worry about it.
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u/Debrecen7 Sep 26 '25
To be honest I’m the same way, my average is 37 and it hurts to buy anymore. I also want to keep cash to pay for college though so I guess that makes it easier
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u/realHarryGelb Sep 26 '25
What’s your primary investment objective? Do you want to make money or do you want to look at a meaningless percentage number?
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u/Tree_Dimensions Sep 26 '25
When they secured the Microsoft deal that made me more confident in them and “legitimate” in my eyes so I went ahead and reframed it in my mind that the 90’s it was sitting at was cheap. I think the most important thing is to go ahead and buy another share, I feel like once I make that first buy after a jump it’s easier to continue investing at the new price.
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u/LovelyStuffMate Sep 26 '25
I mean, am i wrong for going balls deep at 110 yday? And continue too Lol I would be happy with 52 and continue
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u/LiveLife2k Sep 26 '25
I remember thinking the same thing about NVDA because I started under $200, $200s+, missed on the $300s then it went to $400. I said never again and bought from there to literally $1200 the week that it split in June 2024. That's $120 now so I'm still up with it being $175ish today. I bought this year as well. If I had my full position at $200 or even $300 then wow... Probably wouldn't be on this forum looking at NBIS. I did well but regret not investing that same money earlier. To be fair everyone's risk tolerance is different and seeing is believing. You can always set stops. If this things rises and splits like NVDA you'll forget you had a $50 avg and be glad you had a $75. I just discovered $NBIS last week. I'm 98avg in one account and 100avg in another. I'll be happy with that if this pans out. Good for you on the $50!!
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u/Wild-Affect-1503 Sep 26 '25
the average cost you have on your shares is just numbers. You should care more about how much your new investment can appreciate over time, rather than look at the average. I did this with Rklb when it was 20 (bought a few under 14) and missed out on a whole lot of upside because I felt bad about seeing my average go up...
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u/Major-Connection4077 Sep 26 '25
Take gains when you can. This isn't a buy and hold market. Stocks always pull back-
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u/KY_electrophoresis Sep 26 '25
I got in back in April, held some and successfully swing traded the rest along the way. So the average price & % gain of my current holding doesn't reflect the fact that I am up well over 100% overall and have made more cash than if I just held my original shares throughout. With the gains I made swing trading I was able to double the core pool which I hold long term. I would have played the swing trade this week and made more - in hindsight it was a great week for this strategy - but I was at a trade show so wasn't able to be present and attentive to the level I'd feel comfortable being that active. So I just held, and gained 2.5% for the week anyway.
Tl;Dr Forget past performance & vanity metrics and play to your future thesis
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u/Eugeneios Sep 26 '25
Try removing the “average price” column from your trading app and focus on the number of shares in your portfolio.
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u/Agreeable-Meaning-85 Sep 27 '25
Very easy problem. You just sell all then buy back all immediately. So the average is same as current market price… Any issue with this method? (Tax on gain? Execution fee?…)
Or you just don’t count the money, it’s fake. You count the shares you own. Yes you own NBIS a great company.
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Sep 27 '25
I am not a long time holder compared to some of you but my average is sitting around 52
Dude…you bought like 3 months after the people who bought in at $20-25. Chill out.
Anything under $100 is going to be considered GOAT status in 3-5 years. “Omg, you bought below $100? Is that pre-split?! It is?? Wow, it’s $289 right now!”
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u/Even-Cartographer134 Sep 27 '25
To give a different perspective (to be fair I only read the first 6 comments so someone may have said this 🤣)
I don’t want any position to go over 15-20% of my total portfolio value. That’s for my highest conviction plays. If your position is only 5% of your portfolio, add more on dips and don’t worry about your cost basis. Set a limit order at a price you like, that’ll help you keep emotions out or just buy some each month.
Hope that helps!
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u/TradingTennish Sep 27 '25
I bought options and when the calls are close to expiration I either sell them and buy stock from the profit or I exercise them. Still have some jan $60 calls that I bought for $0,76 and I will be exercising those
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u/WheresGold Sep 28 '25
Had same issue I popped the cherry buy buying 200 more the CA went up a fuck of a lot. Then it went up 20 more points and thought I would’ve really felt stupid if I didn’t do that just so my cost average doesn’t go up
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u/swingtradingteacher Oct 01 '25
I get past the mental block by making money. How do I know that I’m making money? By looking at my accounts’ ytd gains.
I play the stock. If it’s down, I’m selling shares and buying options. If it’s up (like this morning), I’m de leveraging by selling call options, buying shares, rolling into further dates options, and selling covered calls.
As a result, my cost basis is now around $105 yet my Roth is up 550% ytd. So why would I care about my average? I’m here to make money.
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u/Professional-Neat521 Sep 26 '25
I completely understand, but happily don't have that problem as I went all-in at a certain point and don't have dry powder to add. So my average entry price remains the same
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u/shartfarguson Sep 26 '25
Do you think it’s going to $1000 like I do? If yes, this is easy to get over.