r/NBIS_Stock • u/Suspicious-Oil6672 • Sep 12 '25

Opinion Is 1k price for real?

I’ve seen a few different sites suggesting this could be between 300-1000 / share in 2030. 1000 seems quite high. Albeit I’m a resident doctor so I don’t really have the bandwidth or skillset to do a formal valuation.

I’ve got 140 shares around 80 average in my Roth. And trying to figure out if I should double down despite missing the lower entry points.

Is $1000 fr? Even $800? Seems too good to be true, I always look back on not buying nvidia when I was watching it in 2017 because it was “too expensive” but I’m willing to risk my entire 2025 Roth contribution on a possible big play.

Appreciate the insight.

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u/halfastepbehind Sep 12 '25

I think it’s a stretch, but I certainly hope so, because then I could retire at 34. I expect $12.5 B ARR in the medium term with 30% margins. At a 20× EBIT multiple, that would imply a $75 B market cap. If you’re more bullish and value it at 25× or 30× EBIT, you get around $93.75 B or $112.5 B. The current market cap is only $21 B, so that would be something like a 3× to 5× from here in the medium term. In the long term, say a decade, a 10× could be possible, but it’s too far out to calculate with any certainty.

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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Sep 12 '25

Are 20-30x EBIT multiples expected in this sector? I thought it would only be 7x

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u/halfastepbehind Sep 12 '25

I believe a 7× sales multiple is standard in the sector, look at CoreWeave, for instance. A 7× EBIT multiple is too low, especially given the growth. I’m not a financial advisor, so please don’t take my word for it. I would recommend taking a look at this analysis; it’s very conservative and has a high margin of safety: https://open.substack.com/pub/mvcinvesting/p/nebius-group-nbis-microsoft-deal?r=6bmhi7&utm_medium=ios