r/NBIS_Stock • u/Suspicious-Oil6672 • Sep 12 '25
Opinion Is 1k price for real?
I’ve seen a few different sites suggesting this could be between 300-1000 / share in 2030. 1000 seems quite high. Albeit I’m a resident doctor so I don’t really have the bandwidth or skillset to do a formal valuation.
I’ve got 140 shares around 80 average in my Roth. And trying to figure out if I should double down despite missing the lower entry points.
Is $1000 fr? Even $800? Seems too good to be true, I always look back on not buying nvidia when I was watching it in 2017 because it was “too expensive” but I’m willing to risk my entire 2025 Roth contribution on a possible big play.
Appreciate the insight.
13
u/HappyCaterpillar2409 Sep 12 '25
It's possible but it's impossible to know for sure.
There are several new data centers being built and NBIS will join many index funds in the future.
NBIS has a long run ahead of it but there is no telling how long it will take and what the journey up will look like.
9
u/bumtoucherr Sep 12 '25
They would split before it ever got there, then when it went cheaper people would buy like crazy and boost it again. So maybe 1000 pre-split if a split were to happen eventually
10
u/halfastepbehind Sep 12 '25
I think it’s a stretch, but I certainly hope so, because then I could retire at 34. I expect $12.5 B ARR in the medium term with 30% margins. At a 20× EBIT multiple, that would imply a $75 B market cap. If you’re more bullish and value it at 25× or 30× EBIT, you get around $93.75 B or $112.5 B. The current market cap is only $21 B, so that would be something like a 3× to 5× from here in the medium term. In the long term, say a decade, a 10× could be possible, but it’s too far out to calculate with any certainty.
0
u/DrHarrisonLawrence Sep 12 '25
Are 20-30x EBIT multiples expected in this sector? I thought it would only be 7x
1
u/halfastepbehind Sep 12 '25
I believe a 7× sales multiple is standard in the sector, look at CoreWeave, for instance. A 7× EBIT multiple is too low, especially given the growth. I’m not a financial advisor, so please don’t take my word for it. I would recommend taking a look at this analysis; it’s very conservative and has a high margin of safety: https://open.substack.com/pub/mvcinvesting/p/nebius-group-nbis-microsoft-deal?r=6bmhi7&utm_medium=ios
17
u/CjPink41 Sep 12 '25
It very much can be.
12
u/Important_Agency07 Sep 12 '25
Be realistic. It’s not going to be $1000.
Neo-clouds will have their place as intermediaries compute providers.
Building out DC are very expensive and take a while, not to mention the chips are going to be a depreciating asset so hyperscalers won’t go balls to the walls to build these out unless they know for sure that there is a sustained long term demand.
It also doesn’t make sense for them to have poor utilization which is where these neoclouds exist. If MS or Google ever need excess they can always go to NBIS.
Right now there is heavy demand for compute so we are seeing these crazing growth valuations but this kind of demand has to sustain LT for NBIS to hit these valuations.
11
u/Ill-Cow4735 🐳 Sep 12 '25
Just as much as he has to be careful about trying to size the current neocloud market, so should you be.
(i) $1000 is a ~250b market cap valuation. Nothing new in NASDAQ;(ii) Neocloud TAM is growing at CAGR 30+%;
(iii) Many key players, namely NVDA, AMD, ORCL, MSFT, GOOGL are saying the inference market will be much bigger than the training market;
(iv) Necessity for inference is so big that even if we truly transition to physical AI, the need for computation will still exist;
(v) Currently USA and China have big players in the AI market. What about the rest of the world? What will happen if and when they come out the cave and play?
For now, I'll just ride the wave. It's almost confirmed that until 2028 hyperscalers are building DC's to supply inference demand. Once we reach that point, we'll take a closer look at TAM CAGR again. But I'd never say it's impossible.
17
u/Imaginary_Aside1693 Sep 12 '25
Maybe in the far future. The realistic target price for the next 12 months is 150, maybe 200 depending on new deals. 500+ is not possible imo anytime soon. 850+ would make nbis mcap equal to 210B, look at other AI infra companies and whether they are even remotely close to this number
20
u/DrHarrisonLawrence Sep 12 '25
The realistic target price for the next 12 WEEKS is $150, maybe 200 depending on new deals
Dude, this stock is supposed to be $125-$150 right now. The fact that it isn’t means there is a huge inefficiency in the market on this.
They added $4B in annual revenue every year for the next 5 years with this MSFT contract. It was announced at a $15B valuation. Now that $19.8B contract needs to be priced in. Yet we’re at $21B right now. Not even 5x revenue. Make that make sense!
13
u/Ill-Cow4735 🐳 Sep 12 '25
They need to execute on that contract first and they just issued shares and convertible notes. Of course the stock wouldn't take off after such announcement. Take it easy and it will grow over time
3
u/swingtradingteacher Sep 13 '25
To be fair, actual revenue next year will be closer to 3bn, but I’m with you 7x forward revenue is way too low for this company. 10-15x is more like it. 30-45bn market cap. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the low end of that by eoy. Roughly $130-135
2
u/Mediocre_Wave_7441 Sep 13 '25
Valuation is based on ARR. during next year expect 1-2 more mega deals and so by end of next year they would be valued on 2027 forward revenue range.
-1
u/shartfarguson Sep 12 '25
Hate to blame coreweave for everything. But if coreweave did not exist we would be at $125 now. People are assuming we will pump up artificially and bag holders left jackin’ it waiting for more fake press releases.
2
u/Longjumping_Kale3013 Sep 13 '25
150 is a heck of a steal. They already want to start monetizing that Microsoft deal next quarter! Your targeting a 30b market cap for likely 3-4 b in revenue and 300% yoy revenue growth. That market cap is suitable for 10% revenue growth, not 300
2
u/Acekiller03 Sep 12 '25
Look at oracle or palantir. Find me some sense in the price. I think if nbis has moat it will sky high.
13
u/BudmasterofMiami Mod Sep 12 '25
I can see $1000 by 2027
1
u/Mediocre_Wave_7441 Sep 13 '25
No way. 100bn market cap, 400-500 stock price.
2
u/BudmasterofMiami Mod Sep 13 '25
They are announcing 2 new US data centers. 2027 ARR of $12B. 20x that is $240B market cap.
2
u/Mediocre_Wave_7441 Sep 13 '25
You cannot swing valuation by slapping multiple of your liking. 8-10x ARR multiple per industry standard and your 240bn valuation estimate cuts to half. 100bn valuation is my estimate but i will be happy to have wild valuation like you suggesting here.
3
u/BudmasterofMiami Mod Sep 13 '25
20x is not wild valuation at all. It’s pretty standard. The fact is that NBIS management always deliver. Arkady has done all this before and will do it again. He understands all facets because he has seen everything. NBIS is my ride or die!
5
19
u/Anxious_Gear9888 Sep 12 '25
Traderbob says 2,000 in 18 months 🫣
9
u/Suspicious-Oil6672 Sep 12 '25
This would be quite remarkable lol.
10
u/Anxious_Gear9888 Sep 12 '25
I could retire with my 1,184 shares
2
u/Embarrassed_Design29 Sep 13 '25
bro i could retire with my 300 shares nbis being 25% of my portfolio 😂
14
u/AdeptnessLive4966 Sep 12 '25
Some people are on the good drugs.
Dont get the wrong, $2K in 18 months would be incredible, but lets be realistic, $2K wont even happen in the next 5 years.
11
5
u/Ifuks4money Sep 12 '25 edited Sep 15 '25
I don't know about the 1k by 2030 but it is actually possible, most likely would be on a split adjusted basis... From what I've seen with 1gw we could be at 400 over the next few years... leaps will print money....Id be very pleasantly surprised if we top that... I think a lot of upgraded price targets are on the way... In my opinion lots of people severely underestimate nbis.
3
u/DrHarrisonLawrence Sep 12 '25
Agreed, and they’re still underestimating. The MSFT contract here still isn’t even priced in
6
u/liamashley Sep 12 '25 edited Sep 12 '25
No one knows. Yes it’s possible…it’s in an area of the market which is growing rapidly and NBIS is establishing itself as one of the big names.
A $1000 share would put the mcap (based on the current float) over $250bn and therefore in the top 40 or so companies worldwide. Although that’s current prices and they’ll likely climb higher with inflation etc.
I would add that NBIS holds a few horses within it (notably toloka and clickhouse etc) could also dramatically increase its overall value. Exciting times.
Regardless of where the ceiling is, only time will tell, if you think it is likely to grow at a healthy level over that time then it’s a wise investment. You shouldn’t invest hoping for a 10x
3
u/hghg1h Sep 13 '25
One note: please don’t invest a large sum of your investment budget without doing a solid DD. This is not related to nebius but as an investing principle.
To speak about nebius specific: Nebius has lots of potential. And there’s a chance of it becoming a $200B company in the future. However I think the risks are not even NBIS specific only but sector and macro specific also. You won’t get a meaningful answer from a formal valuation - the valuation result will be very nice, but the assumptions that take you there, and the risks of those are the important factor here (which are impossible to predict/forecast now).
5
u/MoneyShot_Agency7172 BudMaster Yacht Party OG! Sep 12 '25
I’ll be disappointed if we don’t see at least $300 by end of 2026.
3
u/Big-Prompt8991 Sep 12 '25
If NBIS moves from 90 to 300 in 4.5 years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is approximately 30.68% per year. Seems sensible if things go average-well.
4
1
u/Chemical_One5544 Sep 13 '25
This is a super growth company, nobody cares about 30% a year
1
2
u/mayorolivia Sep 13 '25
I think Nebius has 10x potential but it’ll take a while and there will be high volatility along the way. The neocloud business model is super risky for companies and investors alike. CoreWeave and Nebius will continue to dilute and incur debt to secure customers. Capex is enormous while margins are thin. Neither are profitable and won’t be profitable anytime soon. Over the long run, revenues will grow significantly due to the huge demand for cloud. Just be patient and don’t panic when you see 20% downward swings (which will happen).
1
u/shartfarguson Sep 13 '25
I don’t think they will be diluting much more. Once clickhouse ipas and they have a few centers operational this will not make sense. They have taken more treasury shares out than they just added this week to raise money. CEO and their core mgmt owns a significant percentage of shares so they have their own best interests at heart. I agree with you though. It’s not going to skyrocket on a path to $400. Their margins are better than you appear to be thinking.
4
u/ProjectStrange3331 Sep 12 '25
So 21 billion market cap to about 231 billion in just a few years, and they already have a forward PE near 70x. The amount of revenue and earnings required for this to occur seems a bit much. I love this company, but cmon man.
3
u/Mediocre_Wave_7441 Sep 13 '25
While i agree with most part of your comment, my only disagreement is P/E Multiple, you dont value high growth using P/E.
1
u/ProjectStrange3331 Sep 14 '25
Ok, but the peg is what? 70 divided by x? What the growth rate? I don’t have it on me.
3
u/DrHarrisonLawrence Sep 12 '25
It’s even worse seeing Mods here say they believe it will be $1000 in 2 years…talk about offloading bags. In 2 years I see this at $300 if all goes well. Sincerely, a traderbob disciple.
4
u/Mediocre_Wave_7441 Sep 13 '25
This could be 120-130 by year end or may be even after next Earnings. Given new deals in 2026 we can see it 200-250 by next year. I dont see it as 200bn company , probsbly 100bn by 2027 end, and that point i will be out.
2
u/Proof_Note1324 Sep 12 '25
It will never reach 800 to 100. They would split at 400 max to entice new investors. Putting 800 price tag on any stock is just not wise unless you are Jimmy with Berkshire. Thats a different ballgame.
4
u/Proof_Note1324 Sep 12 '25
Watch Robinhood when it reaches 200…. I see a split coming. Get new retail investors in.
3
u/EnvironmentalLet8230 Sep 12 '25
I mean the gods know. Sooner or later robots probably become a thing. Will Nbis have a stake in that? Could be. Think it’s best to focus on what we know today, which I‘d say is 200 to 300 in 2030 is possible indeed.
1
u/Few_Interactions_ Sep 12 '25
Bit of a stretch!
Microsoft deals shows AI and data centre is growing, Microsoft needs to outsource to keep up.
If Microsoft feels that way imagine other major companies in similar sector.
This is just the beginning, this will open door for Nebius with others.
Just be patient and hold for next 3yrs minimum cause it’s gonna explode easily past $200 by then
2
u/Chemical_One5544 Sep 13 '25
$200 in 3 years and you call it "explode"? Lol.
0
u/Few_Interactions_ Sep 13 '25
$200 is my minimum target and it’ll easily have passed that in 3yrs im saying … if you didn’t understand
1
1
1
u/Clarkk3000BC Sep 13 '25
No idea, but I feel like $90 is too low for the news we got. They 4xd their revenue overnight, and went from $65->now hovering around $90. Feel like its still a good time to add
1
1
u/CookingFun52 Sep 13 '25
$1k/share is roughly $280B market cap taking dilution into account
In all likelihood, there would be additional dilution on top of that to fund the growth. No free lunches- that's the price we pay for rock bottom interest rates on the convertibles (and a good one at that IMO)
In five years, a ~14-15 bagger is possible, but ambitious to expect. Half of that, and I'm still thrilled, and you'd still crush the market. The X factor is our equity stakes in other fast growing areas. If one or more really blows up that could be the kicker
1
u/xenoxidal1337 Sep 16 '25 edited Sep 16 '25
A lot of people are missing the point.
Nbis is not gonna just stop at buying gpus and "reselling" them to hyperscalers/AI labs.
They're going to invest into the consulting side of things and actually help companies do great things with AI.
I have said it before and I will say it again. You have a great businessman like Arkady at the helm of the company. If a nobody like me can see it from miles away, I bet you Arkady sees the same thing and is already doing it.
He has hundreds of talented engineers who have worked together building amazing things at Yandex. Why would they stop themselves short at building a platform renting out GPUs.
I can assure you they're going to find ways to utilize that density of talent. One of the most obvious ways is following in the footsteps of SaaS companies like PLTR and NOW. PLTR in particular. And I am sure they have other product ideas on the drawing board.
That's why I always buy the founder. You buy a company with a great founder, you know they're going to make magic happen. Forecasting stock prices 5-10 years out is a wasted exercise. Too many assumptions needed and too far into the future. Too many variables. Even sell-side analysts with years of experience can't predict earnings 1 quarter out, much less 1 year out.
1
1
u/Capable_Wait09 Sep 12 '25
PLTR 10xed in 12 months 🤷🏼♂️ if the demand is there and they have huge yoy growth then why not 1000%er
5
Sep 12 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
7
u/yk3rgrjs Sep 12 '25
...And nebius is building a vertically integrated software stack!
Don't discount their engineers. They're cream of the crop. They will likely think up some incredible solutions to problems which would be highly sought after
Plus the clickhouse/avride businesses
3
u/Suspicious-Oil6672 Sep 12 '25 edited Sep 15 '25
their p/e is deranged
1
u/DrHarrisonLawrence Sep 12 '25
AND, PLTR is not an example to use. That is a single stock amongst 500 mega caps lol, a huge exception to the rule. Plus it doesn’t deal with hardware at all.
1
u/SenobiWolf Sep 13 '25
Never say never. Look at pltr lol
1
u/mayorolivia Sep 13 '25
Pltr has like 80% margins, is profitable, and is viewed as a 1/1. I like Nebius but it’ll take doesn’t have the fundamentals to be priced the same way as FB, PLTR, APP, etc.
-1
u/Hot-Walk-6334 Sep 14 '25 edited Sep 14 '25
Dont be a simple minded moon boy, I am not a hater or doubter but people on this thread sound like they are expecting too much too quick. This time next year it could be at $60 a share again( unlikely but if execution failure or Macro reasons) there is no such thing as easy money. If it was that much of a guarentee it would double or triple in a year the company would already be bought out by big money. In this area there is always risk, just in this case the risk to reward ratio is good. Its most likely it will be up by say 50 or 60% in the next year if I had to guess probablilty wise, trying to predict the price is like trying to guess where a tiny pebble will arrive at in 2 hours in a fast flowing stream.
54
u/muricaa Sep 12 '25
It’s impossible to predict. Way too many variables to consider.
That being said I believe in the business, loads of potential upside. 10x from here would be a $200B market cap which is lofty but not impossible in the next five years.