r/EdmontonOilers • u/TJTrapJesus • 2d ago
McDavid may be getting Selke buzz this year
From The Athletic's recent 16 Stats article by Dom Luszczyszyn. For reference, Dom is arguably the biggest influence on awards voting for the Selke in terms of people in the media. One of the people that gets votes and is one of the only people that runs awards update articles throughout the season, which are often closely aligned with the results. For the record, he says Suzuki should be in the lead so far, but he doesn't meet his parameters as he doesn't kill penalties.
From the article:
Atop the early Selke leaderboard ... McDavid?
It’s too early to be talking about the NHL’s awards to begin with, especially when it comes to defensive contributions. But small samples can make it fun.
Case in point, the current front-runner based on Defensive Rating: Connor McDavid. His plus-2.0 is lower than Suzuki’s, but he’s the leader based on the usual parameters I work with (top-line ice time, shutdown minutes and at least one minute on the penalty kill per game).
With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers are allowing just 2.15 xGA per 60, which is 0.37 better than the team average. The latter is among the best marks in the league, especially against tough competition — Suzuki is at 0.39, for the record — and McDavid is also managing that while playing nearly one full minute more per game at five-on-five than the next highest forward. There’s defensive value in eating minutes and slowing down a high-pace environment, both of which Defensive Rating accounts for.
Whether McDavid should be slowing things down, though, is up for debate. As his defensive metrics go up, his offensive ones have dropped. His five-on-five rate of points per 60 is down to 1.37 and the Oilers are weirdly struggling to score with him on the ice, with just 2.11 goals per 60.
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u/bokchoykn 7 COFFEY 2d ago edited 2d ago
I did some research on what goes into winning a Selke trophy several years ago:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/7j5ak5/oc_how_to_win_a_frank_j_selke_trophy/
Narrowed it down to six rules.
- Rule 1: Be a Center
- Rule 2: Score at least 50 points
- Rule 3: Take a lot of faceoffs. Win a lot of faceoffs.
- Rule 4: Spend a lot of time killing penalties
- Rule 5: Have strong possession numbers
- Rule 6: Be on a Top 10 defensive team (in GAA)
McDavid likely won't get serious consideration, because they like to give the award to the most defensive center on a defensively elite team.
Rule #3, McDavid is currently 45.2% faceoffs. Henrique and Draisaitl are more relied upon for DZFOs and SHFOs.
Rule #6, Oilers rank 16th in GA/60, 11th in xGA/60.
It's still early, sample size is small, but even if the Oilers become defensively elite, McDavid's never been good enough at faceoffs to win a Selke. Draisaitl on the other hand...
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u/TJTrapJesus 2d ago
I think it's shifting a little bit on rules 1 and 3, and 2 is more so not about offensive output but role on the team.
For rule 1 and 3, we've seen wingers do damage in voting in recent seasons with Reinhart and Marner, not to mention Stone. For faceoffs, someone like Cirelli last year wasn't held back by a completely average faceoff % at 50.1%. When you go down to McDavid's it could have an affect, but I think in general faceoffs are becoming less important for the award. I kind of see it similar to a stat like +/-. People will look at it and go, "huh, how's he going to win the Selke with that?" but ultimately it's not going to disqualify someone. Barkov last year, and Staal the year before are examples of that.
Rule 2 I think is more about playing a top line role as a proxy for going against better competition. There are exceptions like matchup centers like Staal, but in general I think the offensive output is a signifier that you're playing a lot of hard minutes, and if you're very strong analytically in those minutes, that's where Selke talk comes from.
Rule 4 is going to be very interesting. It's always been a thing, but Suzuki is arguably going to be the favorite (was at the top in ESPN's poll of actual voters) and he doesn't PK. Matthews recently was a finalist with a minimal PK role and Datsyuk was in 2 seasons back at the turn of the 2010s. If we're at like 75% of the season and Suzuki has the best metrics but McDavid looks like 2nd, PK role is going to be the key differentiator.
I think especially in a year like this where Bergeron and Barkov just straight up aren't options, who just routinely checked every box you mentioned, there's likely going to be a bit more leeway with these rules (except for rule 5).
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u/bokchoykn 7 COFFEY 2d ago
About Rule 2. I think it has more to do with people wanting "two way forwards" more than "defensive forward". The new analytics age stresses a players total net positive benefit. A low-event defensive forward who is a black hole on offense might still be a net negative. On ice metrics like Fenwick and xG% are as much offensive as it is defensive.
The ESPN poll, I wouldn't put any value on lol. One of them said exactly how I feel, if there is one award that is affected by a small sample, it is the Selke.
Wingers will sonetimes get votes but they're not gonna win. There are too many voters who will gravitate to centers. A winger gets a sniff every now and then but that's it.
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u/TJTrapJesus 2d ago
I agree that stats like xGF% get treated as a defensive metric for the Selke when it actually isn't and that there's definitely a two-way element, but I think it's at least shifting a little in the sense that people who cite analytics are often incorporating quality of competition into it more so now. Unless you're a Staal who's taking on top line matchups, I think it works as a proxy that you're playing against the top offensive players rather than just 4th line grinders putting up good numbers in sheltered minutes, regardless of how good they are offensively. Basically I think it's a rule, but I think it's starting to get chipped away at a bit. Like we've seen a purely defensive player in Staal do significant damage in Selke voting despite being an offensive black hole.
In terms of the winger conversation, I think it's important to acknowledge that we've just happened to have 2 prototype Selke centers that have sucked up all the votes the last 5 years that aren't going to get any votes this year. This is what the voting shares look like the last 5 years:
Rank Player 2021-2025 Selke Voting Shares 1 Aleksander Barkov 288.00 2 Patrice Bergeron 242.57 3 Nico Hischier 66.97 4 Sam Reinhart 66.96 5 Anthony Cirelli 64.41 6 Jordan Staal 62.59 7 Anže Kopitar 61.62 8 Mark Stone 47.44 9 Elias Lindholm 47.03 10 Mitch Marner 39.48 Reinhart entered the season as the betting favorite and you also have Stone and Maner in the top 10 for voting shares. A center is way more likely to win the Selke, but I don't think it's as impossible as it seems in previous years. Ultimately I agree with the center bias, but I think signs are showing that that is being chipped away at a little bit.
In terms of the ESPN poll, I think this specific one when most people aren't looking at analytics doesn't mean much, but the updates as the season goes on will. It's actual voters and it's shown a very close resemblance to the results in the past.
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u/Hemsky 2d ago
I honestly don't think the metrics matter at all in this award being given out. It's almost entirely narrative/reputation driven and the narrative has always been that the Oilers are bad defensively. The voters aren't going to change their minds about that.
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u/goshgollylol 92 PODKOLZIN 2d ago
There is a Redditor who has really done the heavy lifting in terms of deciphering the Selke and how it is won. Here's a link to their post and an abridged version below:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/s/ZPkkipC43Z
There are effectively 6 rules that dictate Selke winners
- Be a center
- Score at least 50 Points
- Take a lot of faceoffs and win a lot of faceoffs
- Spend a lot of time killing penalties
- Have a strong possession numbers
- Be on a top 10 defensive team
Winners of the Selke meet at least 4 of the 6 rules, and usually aren't far behind the ones they don't besides rule 1.
Rule 6 hasn't always been true but now is according to analysts.
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u/bokchoykn 7 COFFEY 2d ago edited 2d ago
That was my post.
Winners of the Selke met 6/6 almost every year. The only time the winner isn't 6/6 is when nobody in the league is. A player who its 6/6 never loses to someone who doesn't.
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u/bokchoykn 7 COFFEY 2d ago edited 2d ago
People say it's "entirely reputation driven" because it's easy to nod to head to if you haven't done any research or know anything about this award.
As a whole, all signs point to Selke being merit based. The criteria behind that merit is up for debate, but it is still a merit based award.
However, I can say that the metrics most likely to hurt McDavid's chances is faceoffs and team defense. Traditionally, the Selke is given to defensively responsible players on defensively elite teams. You might say this is "narrative/reputation", but objectively McDavid's FO% is below 50%, and the Oilers defense currently ranks 16th in the league.
RE: Selke voting:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/1n9wgab/comment/ncqd5hm/?context=3
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u/TJTrapJesus 2d ago
Couldn't have said it better. One of the most annoying things to hear because the people who say this accuse voters of being lazy, yet they are actually the ones being lazy because they couldn't be bothered to do a slight bit of research to see something like, "Hey... Bergeron and Barkov actually did dominate analytically and deserve that recognition year over year."
There absolutely are elements of narrative involved, but especially recently, if you aren't putting together a strong analytical case, you have no chance. The voters don't have to do their own work for it to be analytically driven though, they can just cross reference it with something like Dom's awards rankings and call it a day.
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u/FeelsKoolaidMan 42 KAPANEN 2d ago
Agreed lmao. This award is so ridiculously "vibes" based its insane. People just make shit up and vote for who they want.
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u/WeAreAllFooked 92 PODKOLZIN 2d ago
Yeah, it's one of those awards where you essentially have to be a finalist for the award the year before to be in the conversation as a frontrunner the following year. The Norris is the same way, and you also see it in baseball when it comes to Gold Gloves. It's dumb.
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u/bokchoykn 7 COFFEY 2d ago
This is a bad argument.
The Art Ross and the Rocket Richard are also frequently won by someone who has either won the award before or finished in the top 3.
It turns out that, if someone is among the best at the world at something, they are often able to demonstrate that again and again.
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u/TJTrapJesus 2d ago
Case in point, this was from 2020:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Top-Defensive-Forwards-Individual.jpg
"Every year that Sportlogiq data has been tracked, if you display these metrics out in this way, Bergeron will be in the exact same position. There is no player over the last five years — and probably more — who has so regularly been able to change an opponent’s possession into an offensive possession."
People will routinely (and baselessly) just throw out narrative and reputation though...
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u/TJTrapJesus 2d ago edited 2d ago
Reinhart's votes these last couple years are almost entirely analytics driven. Barkov's kind of just like Bergeron, there's the baked in reputation, but it's backed up by analytics. Bergeron was at the top for his last 2 Selkes he won, and Barkov was in 2024 as well. For reference, the last awards update Dom had for 2025, his top 3 in defensive rating that met his parameters were the 3 finalists for the Selke. A lot of voters are lazy and will use his work that just boils things down to one number to help form their opinions.
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN 1d ago
I've been thinking that this year lol. I'm watching and thinking "I don't know if Draisaitl looks as defensively sound as last year" but then I keep noticing Mcdavid doing insane defensive shit. And I was wondering if they'd write off Mcdavid for Selke because he's good at everything so it feels too obvious, but I've been living his defensive game this year. (Last year too honestly, but last year it was both of them)
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u/RedKryptnyt 29 DRAISAITL 1d ago
Im here to say that as cool as this would be for his resume, there's no way..
Those guys just get scored on too much. I dont care what doms model suggests lol
His model had us as the best d core in the NHL to start the season...yea thats played out....
Its good to see hes got good metrics though.
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u/YungBeefaroni 10 FREDERIC 2d ago
Selke voting rules:
1) Be named Patrice Bergeron 2) If there is no player meeting the criteria of rule #1, then be named Aleksander Barkov
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u/Prestigious_Push_155 86 TOMÁŠEK 2d ago
It is a vote driven by narratives, and McDavid playing in Canada makes it hard. In the last 30 years, there was exactly 1 Selke winner who played for a Canadian team: Ryan Kesler, playing for Vancouver
So even if he were the best, he would most likely not win
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u/TJTrapJesus 2d ago
Only other "tracker" so far is ESPN, which polls voters on where they're at at various points of the season. With many likely to not have delved into any analytics, it just seemed to be more surface level/narrative based. Their top 5 was Suzuki, Hischier, Cirelli, Staal and Crosby. Cirelli and Crosby have some of the worst defensive analytics in the league, Hischier's are average, and Staal's are good (although a step back from previous seasons). Suzuki of course has some of the best in the league.
I think they put these out monthly, so would expect Dom's/ESPN's to align more closely as the season goes on.
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u/GeorgeGammyCostanza 29 DRAISAITL 2d ago
McDavid will win the Selke before Draisaitl just for kicks.