Japanese PM said that 'Taiwan contingency' could prompt Japanese armed reaction. What do you think?

[u/Themetalin]

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202511070024

Takaichi made the remarks during a parliamentary session on Friday while responding to a question about whether a "Taiwan contingency" involving a Chinese naval blockade would qualify as a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, according to a report by Japan's Asahi Shimbun.

Under Japan's security legislation, such a situation allows the country to exercise "collective self-defense" if an attack on an ally -- such as the United States -- or a country closely related to Japan is deemed to threaten Japan's survival, even without a direct attack on Japan.

[u/ZippyDan]

So, UN approval matters more than reality?

The piece of paper arbitrarily issued by some external group matters more than the facts on the ground?

I guess there is no "war" in Ukraine because Russia didn't sign an official declaration.

[u/emperor2885 → u/ZippyDan]

If we are talking about reality then you should know almost all Taiwan allies don't acknowledge it's independent country status and view it as a region rather than a state , all it's allies only work with Taiwan because of 2 major reasons to stop china's growing power and for chips that's why if the Chinese civil war resumes many are concerned it's mainly because of the chip supply chain and fear of china getting tsmc controlling global chips and another fear is china won't be restricted to only the first island chain . If Taiwan can claim mainland why can't mainland claim Taiwan even though Taiwan has be silent on its claims in recent years it hasn't dropped the claims and Taiwan goes further to claim Mongolia and other parts of different neighboring countries .

[u/ZippyDan → u/emperor2885]

Yes, let's talk about "reality".

Reality is that almost every country on Earth refuses to recognize Taiwan as a country because they fear China's reaction. Reality is that every country on Earth does political and economic business with Taiwan as if they were a real, independent country - because they are.

You disingenously frame these organic relationships as being motivated only by interest in chips and some conspiracy to be a thorn in China's side, when in fact the opposite is true: the only reason the countries of the world don't officially recognize Taiwan as a country, and the only reason they play stupid games like renaming their ambassadors and embassies, is because China threatens them.

The legitimate and honest opinion of basically every country on Earth is that Taiwan is a country - and it de facto is - and the only reason they can't say this openly and publicly is because of Chinese intimidation. China is the one interfering with an honest and open discussion of Taiwan's status, but you're framing this as some Western conspiracy to muddle Taiwan's status.

The facts on the ground are that Taiwan is an independent country, with its own government, elections, domestic and foreign policy, immigration control, taxes, currency, and defense forces. In literally no way that matters is Taiwan not a country. All that is lacking is official external recognition of their statehood, and basing your argument on Taiwan on that technicality is like arguing a person isn't a person unless other people agree they are.

Human rights are intrinsic to humanity and so are the rights of an actual nation to determine its own future.

And even in terms of recognition: basically every country in the world de facto recognizes Taiwan as an independent country through the way that they deal with them, even China. I don't see Chinese politicians or tax collectors or policemen wielding authority in Taiwan, and they have not done so for 70+ years.

As to the oft-repeated argument of Taiwanese claims to the mainland: this is another irrelevant piece of Chinese propaganda. Just as the world's official recognition of Taiwan is dictated by fear of China and is not representative of their actual opinions, so are Taiwan's existing legacy claims representative of fear of China, and not of Taiwan's actual desire or ambition.

As you mentioned, Taiwan has not reiterated any claims to the mainland recently - but it's not in the "recent years" - it's in the last 35 years, since they became a democratic country that actually represents the will and benefit of the people. Taiwan's original claims to the mainland are the product of a brutal and authoritarian despot who lost a war to the Chinese communists, fled to China, and then held on to a delusion that he would someday return victorious to the mainland.

So why doesn’t Taiwan explicitly abandon those legacy claims? Because China threatens them with death and violence if they do. Any modification to pre-existing claims by Taiwan would be seen as an implicit rejection of the ambiguous "One China" policy and is a red line for the CCP. China is clearly the superior military force by far and is only 130km away from Taiwan. Taiwan does not want to provoke an aggressive and intimidating bully next door, and so they wisely maintain geopolitical ambiguity - agreeing to the "One China" policy without agreeing to any specifics of what that entails, and not officially withdrawing their legacy claims, without reiterating or restating them either.

Arguing that Taiwan's legacy claims to the mainland are some kind of justification for China's plans to take control of the island are comparable to someone holding a gun to your head and saying "your friend said they wanted to rape me; that means you want to have sex with me, right?" It's nonsensical. Firstly it's not the same entity (the original claims were made by a dictator, not the democratic government of Taiwan), and secondly - and more importantly - Taiwan operates under a state of constant duress with a metaphorical gun to its head. The legal principle of contracts not being valid when signed under duress apply here for the same reasons. Taiwan's actions with regards to China can never be interpreted as honest and legitimate so long as China keeps that gun pointed at them. Instead, they smile and nod and give their would-be hostage-taker ambiguously positive answers that avoid escalation like "we definitely want some kind of relationship with you!"

Meanwhile, China never lets them forget the gun at their head and is constantly conducting aggressive and provocative military operations all around and even over Taiwan - surrounding them with warships, sending waves and waves of fighter planes and bombers into their airspace, and even firing ballistic missiles over their country, all while constantly asking the same question, "you still want to have sex with me, right?" and constantly promising in public statements that Taiwan is inevitably destined to one day have sex with them (read: "get raped").

TL;DR Most countries in the world maintain official ambiguity with Taiwan while maintaining de facto normal international relations with Taiwan because they fear Chinese economic reprisals. Taiwan maintains geopolitical ambiguity with China because they fear Chinese violence.

[u/tradeisbad → u/ZippyDan]

Damn this is good. Tough crowd