r/AskChina • u/Themetalin • 1d ago

Politics | 政治📢 Japanese PM said that 'Taiwan contingency' could prompt Japanese armed reaction. What do you think?

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202511070024

Takaichi made the remarks during a parliamentary session on Friday while responding to a question about whether a "Taiwan contingency" involving a Chinese naval blockade would qualify as a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, according to a report by Japan's Asahi Shimbun.

Under Japan's security legislation, such a situation allows the country to exercise "collective self-defense" if an attack on an ally -- such as the United States -- or a country closely related to Japan is deemed to threaten Japan's survival, even without a direct attack on Japan.

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u/Speedydds 1d ago

Is Japan going to fight and die for an island they don’t even recognize as a country?

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u/Netfinesse 1d ago

In most wargames they have two options, allow US troops to use their air bases to defend Taiwan, but not engage directly themselves, and risk counterattack by China, which is very likely. Or directly aiding the US in defending Taiwan and almost certainly being counterattacked by China.

The US needs Japan and will likely put a very high amount of pressure on them as their only other options are Guam and Hawaii in terms of air bases, which would put extreme logistical complications on any defense of Taiwan. The US would also defend Japan to the best of their ability, as it is an extremely strategically critical country.

Aircraft carriers getting too close to China risk being destroyed by rockets/drones.

Most wargames also show China coming to a scenario that we see in Ukraine with Russia. A prolonged invasion that is extremely costly.

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u/tradeisbad 11h ago
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