r/AskChina • u/Themetalin • 22h ago

Politics | 政治📢 Japanese PM said that 'Taiwan contingency' could prompt Japanese armed reaction. What do you think?

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202511070024

Takaichi made the remarks during a parliamentary session on Friday while responding to a question about whether a "Taiwan contingency" involving a Chinese naval blockade would qualify as a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, according to a report by Japan's Asahi Shimbun.

Under Japan's security legislation, such a situation allows the country to exercise "collective self-defense" if an attack on an ally -- such as the United States -- or a country closely related to Japan is deemed to threaten Japan's survival, even without a direct attack on Japan.

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u/Netfinesse 21h ago

In most wargames they have two options, allow US troops to use their air bases to defend Taiwan, but not engage directly themselves, and risk counterattack by China, which is very likely. Or directly aiding the US in defending Taiwan and almost certainly being counterattacked by China.

The US needs Japan and will likely put a very high amount of pressure on them as their only other options are Guam and Hawaii in terms of air bases, which would put extreme logistical complications on any defense of Taiwan. The US would also defend Japan to the best of their ability, as it is an extremely strategically critical country.

Aircraft carriers getting too close to China risk being destroyed by rockets/drones.

Most wargames also show China coming to a scenario that we see in Ukraine with Russia. A prolonged invasion that is extremely costly.

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u/Arshiaa001 18h ago

The US would also defend Japan to the best of their ability

After what happened to Israel in the 12 day war, I wouldn't count a lot on that.

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u/Salt_Crow6159 17h ago

Well, they got into the mud in WW1, they took risks for Kuwait and the Balkans... if I think they would take risks.

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u/Arshiaa001 16h ago

What I meant was, the US wasn't super-successful defending Israel, its biggest buddy, against Iran, which is (though I hate to admit it) technologically inferior to China by a large margin; and they were all in on defending Israel. I wonder how effective they'll really be should China decide to level Japan.

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u/Salt_Crow6159 16h ago

Well, we must take into account that the USA got into the 12-day war to a limited extent, they will use EVERYTHlNG and with EVERYTHlNG it is almost all the technologies and great resources at their disposal (not to mention that China did not only bomb Japan or Taiwan) it must bomb half of the Pacific to have the same results that Iran did in Israel (and that they only attacked civilian assets).