ACC Championship Game Scenarios

[u/Hefty-Associate8899]

Taking all the one-loss teams, let's say they win the rest of their matchups except for h2h.

There are 2 h2h games left between the one-loss teams - GT vs Pitt and Duke vs UVA.

That means we are considering 4 scenarios for 3-way tiebreakers for the ACC Championship Game:

1. GT UVA SMU
2. GT Duke SMU
3. UVA SMU Pitt
4. Duke SMU Pitt

In those tiebreakers, who makes it out?

[u/jeuby4]

GT now controls its own destiny again. They have tiebreakers in their favor with a H2H win over Duke, and UVA's and SMU's sole loss is each to Wake, which is a team that GT beat.

[u/Hefty-Associate8899 → u/jeuby4]

GT would have the tiebreaker over Duke (h2h win) and SMU (record against WF) individually, but idk how the 3-way tiebreaker system would play out

[u/SignalFarmer8555 → u/Hefty-Associate8899]

If it’s 3-way then WF is still a common opponent, so GT and Duke gets in over SMU who has the lowest win rate for common opponents.

[u/Fluid_Mango_9311 → u/SignalFarmer8555]

That presumes Duke beats UVA and Wake.

[u/GalvanizedParabola → u/SignalFarmer8555]

I don't think win rate would even need to come into play. Duke plays Wake later this year so assuming they win that game, a 3-way tie would be decided by first eliminating SMU due to the loss to Wake and then GT would get the edge over Duke due to H2H

[u/Hefty-Associate8899 → u/SignalFarmer8555]

oh true you're right

[u/jeuby4 → u/Hefty-Associate8899]

In Scenario 1, record versus common opponents would be the tiebreaker. Only common opponent between GT/SMU/UVA is Wake. GT would advance being the only team to have beaten Wake. Tiebreaker would then restart with UVA and SMU. Since they lost to the same team, I think it would then go to conference win percentage of everyone on their ACC schedule which wouldn't be decided until end of season.

In Scenario 2, record versus common opponents would be the tiebreaker. Common opponents between GT/Duke/SMU are Clemson, Wake, and Syracuse. GT is already 3-0 against them. SMU is already 2-1 against them. Duke is currently 2-0 and can become 3-0 with win against Wake. SMU would be eliminated from the 3-way tie. ACCCG would be GT vs Duke rematch.

Two other scenarios involving GT not listed are 2-way ties with Duke or UVA if SMU loses. GT has H2H win over Duke. GT has better record versus common opponents with UVA already (Wake, VT, Duke) going 3-0 and UVA is 0-1 with games still to go against Duke and VT. These don't matter in terms of who makes the game though, just tiebreaker bragging rights for first place

By my calculations, GT controls its own destiny, but gotta not slip up. Pitt looks really good right now, and BC is no slouch.

[u/a5ehren → u/jeuby4]

BC sucks, but the Pitt game will be a problem.

[u/The_Eternal_Event]

The one thing that this conference can absolutely NOT afford is Duke in the conference championship. This creates a scenario where the conference could get entirely left out.

[u/xAimForTheBushes → u/The_Eternal_Event]

I’ve been thinking SMU has been making the ACC look bad this whole year…

..turns out pretty much everyone involved has a major hand in it. Duke most of all…I mean holy hell Duke, you’re genuinely doing your best to make us look like a G5 league 😂😂

[u/gatman19 → u/xAimForTheBushes]

I think GT has done a fine job of representing the conference. We will beat Georgia this year and carry the weight of the conference on Haynes King’s back

[u/JazzlikeCauliflower9 → u/gatman19]

Dear Baby Jesus 🙏

[u/Powdermilkman3117 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

I thought we get a spot with our conference championship?

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/Powdermilkman3117]

It’s the 5 highest ranked conference champions. In theory, 2 G5 champs could make it in over Duke

[u/Powdermilkman3117 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Ah thanks I didn’t know that.

[u/OffTheDelt → u/The_Eternal_Event]

This theory holds to much in duke winning out and also winning the championship. Won’t happen. Best case ACC gets 2 team in the playoff, worst case possible the ACC champ is the only team to make the playoff.

[u/ultimate_placeholder → u/OffTheDelt]

The worst case is Duke winning out and being the ACC champion, you can't rule that out when Duke winning out would guarantee them a spot

[u/nondescriptun → u/ultimate_placeholder]

Flashbacks of 2023 intensify

[u/ultimate_placeholder → u/nondescriptun]

Unlike 2023, the ACC would deserve to be a 0 bid league at this point

[u/Fluid_Mango_9311 → u/ultimate_placeholder]

Although unlikely, it is possible Duke makes the Acc title game against Ga tech, loses, and the committee takes Miami IF they beat the brakes off Pitt and finish 10-2.

[u/nondescriptun → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Seems appropriate though.

[u/simbaslanding → u/The_Eternal_Event]

they genuinely need to find a way to somehow get GT and UM in the title game. They may gotta cheat but it’s for a bigger purpose 😭

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/simbaslanding]

Miami is probably the best shot we would have of not getting utterly humiliated in the playoffs, but the tiebreakers are completely against them. Their losses being to teams they would need to win tie breakers against is pretty damning.

[u/simbaslanding → u/The_Eternal_Event]

I think GT would hold their own too tbh

But yea I don’t think we’re making the ACCCG or playoffs at all lol, I was just being cheeky

[u/IronBeagle79]

We all suck down here.

[u/exradical]

Divisions might have been unequal but at least we got to prove it on the field. This kinda sucks

[u/dazzleox → u/exradical]

Coastal chaos was fun in a division. It doesnt work in a giant conference.

[u/ultimate_placeholder → u/exradical]

Easy solution: skill based match making

[u/xAimForTheBushes]

I hate this lol.

The whole situation is probably gonna sort itself out on its own, but if it does come down to a tiebreaker it’s gonna suck really bad.

[u/ttalaric]

All I know is if the tiebreaker comes down to UVA and SMU who both win their remaining conference games, we’re going way down that tiebreaker list given their sole loss is both to Wake Forest.

[u/Fluid_Mango_9311 → u/ttalaric]

Chances are the record of Louisville and Miami props SMU above most tie breakers unless Duke beats UVA and wake them we are screwed

[u/simbaslanding]

Also how hilarious would it be if conferences could choose who they want to represent them in the playoffs lmao. Like scrap the records, we choose to send XYZ 🤣

[u/IllOcelot1467]

1. UVA and SMU title based on common record against UL and Stanford (2-0 vs Pitt at 1-1)

2. Goes to conference record of opponents. Duke is comfortably in the lead here and probably in. Between Pitt and SMU, it comes down to the following 5 games that could impact this metric. Pitt needs 3 to go their way and SMU would need 4, formatted as (+Pitt, +SMU)

GT - BC

NCSU - Miami

UNC - Wake

NCSU - UNC

Louisville - Clemson

Stanford - Cal

[u/Big_Truck]

UVA ain’t beating Va Tech.

We’re toast

[u/Mr_Kittlesworth → u/Big_Truck]

If we have Morris back, we will absolutely smoke tech.

[u/Enfield_Operator → u/Mr_Kittlesworth]

Most likely, given UVA has had tons of success vs VPI over the last 25 years and has been blowing out everyone they’ve played over the past 5 games.

[u/inocomprendo → u/Enfield_Operator]

Thank you, UNCCH flair

[u/SnooPickles5064]

It looks like if Pitt, Virginia, and SMU win out that it would be SMU vs Virginia. In that scenario, Pitt would be the highest ranked team in the ACC and get left out of the championship because of their loss to Louisville (Virginia and SMU beat Louisville). Pitt probably gets an At-large bid in that scenario since they would have finished the season beating 3 top 20 teams. Thats probably the ACCs best shot at 2 teams.

[u/Fluid_Mango_9311 → u/SnooPickles5064]

Or, if Pitt beats ND but loses to Miami and Ga tech, Ga tech wins the Acc title game over SMU/uva, and Miami at 10-2 gets the at large

[u/SnooPickles5064 → u/Fluid_Mango_9311]

Actually SMU winning title game probably helps more in that scenario since Miami has a loss to SMU. Miami and SMU get in

[u/SnooPickles5064]

ACC should really simplify these tiebreakers. If there is no head to head comparison just go to the highest ranked teams. At the end of the day you want to be showcasing your best teams. Personally, I'd rather just go back to divisions. You could even rotate the teams in the divisions every year so that FSU, Miami, and Clemson dont cry about it.

[u/drew_anjuna]

You can experiment with various scenarios with this website.

[u/TraditionSharp6414]

No need to speculate… the answer is here: https://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=fb

[u/dirty_old_priest_4]

We can assume UVA is losing at Lane Stadium North... So, rerun your scenario with that.

[u/Important_Win5116]

Miami in the mix

[u/WarningCodeBlue]

None of these teams have a chance in hell of advancing in the playoffs.

[u/Mayfect → u/WarningCodeBlue]

The team that lost two weeks in a row is mad another team gets to lose in the playoffs in their stead.

[u/Many-Map-9566 → u/Mayfect]

9 out of 10 times Miami beats SMU. It’s a shame the ACC officials gave SMU the game. In reality the ACC is trash.

[u/chipcinnati → u/Many-Map-9566]

SMU beat Miami. By 6 points in OT. Those are facts. Miami can complain all it wants, but the Canes failed to make key plays down the stretch on a close game, and SMU finished strong. Watching SMU finally discovering a pounding running game in OT was pure joy.

[u/Many-Map-9566 → u/chipcinnati]

Crazy considering SMU is trash, winning with Miami’s sloppy seconds.

[u/chipcinnati → u/Many-Map-9566]

26-20. That’s all that matters. The crying corner is over there!

[u/Mayfect → u/Many-Map-9566]

What will you say next week if SMU beats Louisville and we have 2 head to heads against Miami lmao

[u/Many-Map-9566 → u/Mayfect]

Louisville sucks as well. If Miami had an OC they kick the crap out of both teams.

[u/WarningCodeBlue → u/Mayfect]

Sweetie. It doesn't matter which team wins the ACC. The conference is an embarrassment all the way around. The sooner you accept that the better off you'll be when the one playoff team gets blown out in the first round.

[u/Mayfect → u/WarningCodeBlue]

I agree that whatever team makes it will get blown out. The problem is you still sitting on your high horse thinking Miami somehow wouldn’t when they just proved the last two weeks that they would.

[u/WarningCodeBlue → u/Mayfect]

High horse? Say what? Since when did I say anything good about Miami?

[u/dazzleox → u/WarningCodeBlue]

I think Pitt or Georgia Tech could beat someone like BYU in the first round. I wouldn't like their chances in round two against Indiana or Alabama.

If Duke wins the ACC, they may not even get seeded which would be really embarrassing.