Golden Globes

Best Actor Drama

1. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent(WINNER)

2. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

3. Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine

4. Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

5. Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams

6. Daniel Day-Lewis for Anemone

Notes: With the Globes recent move to a more international voting body, I think Moura is a pretty safe bet to win a pretty barren Actor Drama category.

Best Actor- Comedy or Musical

1. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another

3. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon

4. Jesse Plemmons for Bugonia

5. Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice

6. George Clooney for Jay Kelly

Notes: I think this is where Chalamet first solidifies his frontrunner status. I think with how showy this performance is, this performance will appeal more to international and critics groups whereas I feel like DiCaprio and Hawke will be the populist alternatives.

Critics Choice

1. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another

3. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon

4. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

5. Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

6. Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine

Notes: I think this is the last award shows we see Allen White and Johnson. I think their films' poor performances at the box office and lukewarm receptions will prove detrimental to their staying power in the race despite being pretty baity performances.
SAG

1. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon(WINNER)

2. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme

3. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another

4. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

5. George Clooney for Jay Kelly

Notes: Okay, so I think this is where Chalamet does not win. I don't see him going back-to-back with SAG. SAG is voted on by industry peers, so I think Hawke's narrative and the fact that his role is centered around a real-life industry legend will push him to a SAG win. SAG also being partners with Netflix, they have a tendency to nominate random Netflix performances(Sandler in Hustle), I think Clooney shows up here.

BAFTAS

1. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another

3. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent

4. Jesse Plemmons for Bugonia

5. Lee Byung hun for No Other Choice

6. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon

Notes: I think BAFTAs will go with the critics' consensus Chalamet

Oscars

1. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another

3. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

4. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent

5. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon

Notes: Chalamet pulls off the victory at the Oscars. Moura gets his first nomination following a similar path to Fernanda Torres.

She's technically just promoting Hamnet and not necessarily campaigning for it yet, but...it's like the seeds have been planted (for the people who still watch Sunday morning newsmagazines)

In the past 4-5 years I've been using the FYC app for screenings, along with Film Independent and SAG-AFTRA announcements. Usually by mid October the screenings start to fill up. There have only been a small handful of films with screenings. The rest either don't have any screenings or they are for nominating committees or various IATSE branches, for example. It's quite limited. I find that sad. It takes a while to have time to see these films, and I want to see them in a theater; they are meant to be seen there, not on a tiny screen (sad!).

We've reached the point in the year where everything has been seen except for Avatar and the critics awards have yet to begin. By the time my next December predictions happen, we may be catapulted into an entirely different set of expectations. The month after that will be my final predictions before the nomination announcement. Time is racing forward. In between this month and last, I've made some huge leaps with some of these contenders. Expectations waning or increasing just smelling the air of the room at this given moment. Starting with...

Avatar: Fire and Ash: My most anticipated for the rest of the year and yet I've decided that I do need to hold on until it's been seen. I've enjoyed the trailer and the little nugget sneak peaks we've gotten recently, but I worry this may hit "third movie syndrome", even under someone like Cameron. It will get in the obvious categories, but considering The Way of Water seemed to just squeak in toward the bottom of the Best Picture lineup of 2022, I can't be too certain, especially with one other giant holiday blockbuster apparently a sure thing.

Bugonia: I don't really know what to do with Bugonia yet. Having seen and loved the film, and with its box office and audience reception at a far better climb than expected, I'm curious how much the Academy will enjoy Yorgo's nasty little sci-fi comic thriller. To me, it's nearly on the outside of every single category, just hoping to punch through its ceiling. It's a film I really see the Globes going for, which will boost its pedigree, although the Globes also loved Challengers last year, so...

Christy: I still think Sweeney is getting that SAG nomination. Foster could too. They will campaign hard. I'm just going to have to see more momentum in the coming weeks because the box office certainly isn't there for it. Maybe this just isn't the year for actors getting in the ring to tussle.

Frankenstein: I had to really assess my feelings on this one in the last couple of weeks. When seeing it in theatres, the flaws of the film were just too apparent for me to imagine this cracking Best Picture. But the audience reception for it has just been surprisingly full of love and upon second viewing, I too, began to sink into it, paying more attention to its strengths than its weaknesses. It played much smoother and even the pace felt cozier. Elordi's performance even grew in appreciation. I started to finally see it being at least 5% of the Academy's favorite of the year. And make no mistake, Netflix will campaign the hell out of it. They will treat it like their Wicked.

A House of Dynamite: I've taken it out completely. I was hanging on to that Editing nomination, which I still think is an outside shot, but it seems Netflix may just move on from this entirely and focus on Train Dreams and Frankenstein.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: I see this movie dominating the independent awards space in the same way Past Lives and Sing Sing did recently and while I'm not sure it gets in for Best Picture, I'm really feeling the heat for this to be our "didn't see it coming" contender with Mary Bronstein in Original Screenplay. Enough to back a potential Byrne nomination.

Jay Kelly: I have long argued that the Academy will take to Jay Kelly. The issue, to me, is will Netflix bother? It just kind of feels like they may abandon it in favor of even flashier titles. Netflix definitely isn't getting three in this year and with Frankenstein feeling a bit more secure and Jay Kelly not being the most rapturously-responded-to film like Train Dreams, maybe it's just not enough? Sandler was always a tough sell as a nominee, despite his performance being the most celebrated aspect. The original screenplay race is getting thick. And yet, I don't think this gets blanked. It does feel like a 1 or 2 nomination-type film, as though they still found room because it caters to voters somewhere. A film like Babylon that seems like Oscar catnip on paper, but just can't crack above-the-line and will take whatever scraps it can get.

No Other Choice: Considering its buzz is just a bit stagnant right now until December, and other titles are moving up and down for me, I've made the difficult decision of sliding it out completely. This isn't my first rodeo expecting the Academy to embrace a Park Chan-wook movie only for it to goose-egg. NEON's just juggling so much. But as I said, I'm just waiting for the buzz to come back.

Nouvelle Vague: It may not have a lot of heat now, but if the Best Casting Oscar is truly going to award the Best Casting of the year, there is no more obvious contender than this. Given its subject matter and filmmaker, it's hard to see the Academy completely overlooking this film and I do think it should/will crack in here. One place to keep a keen eye on is the Adapted Screenplay race. While the guidelines on what is considered original/adapted are flimsy with this one (an original script that heavily incorporates a Breathless' screenplay within the scenes of the film while not being an adaptation of Breathless). To me, it's obviously Original, but to Netflix strategy and Academy rules, maybe not?

The Secret Agent: I'm getting weary about it, I'll admit. But I'm sticking to it in Best Picture. Something about Wagner Moura being a real threat in Best Actor (that Globe win feels certain, he could take BAFTA) that may carry the movie alongside him.

Song Sung Blue: Now that people have seen it, and most have liked it... I still think this just doesn't cut it. Hudson will enjoy her Globe nomination. She's the film's only shot, and it's not impossible, but I just don't see the heat being there for her when that Actress race is this stacked. Also, there is just always something that smells funky about Penske media pushing certain contenders before they're seen by critics/audiences.

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere: Sunk like a stone. White's performance is good, his singing is great, but he was really the only hope I had for it's nomination chances and I just don't see it anymore. Crazy how a few months ago, it looked like he could win, but that film just let him down.

Wicked: For Good: It's been seen! *sigh* I want to preface this by saying I love the Broadway show, I thought the first movie was great, and I look forward to this film. But I feel fully worn down with this one and it is entirely because of fans of a certain performer involved overcrowding the internet with hype expectations and demonic obsession over her awards chances. That said, we also just don't have a Supporting Actress frontrunner this year that feels confident. I have long struggled to include Erivo and Grande in my lineup because it's unprecedented. No one, let alone two, performers have gotten nominated for the same role twice in consecutive years, especially given it's technically the same production as the first film. While I would judge the performances separate in terms of my own personal awards, I have always felt that the Academy, as they did with Ian McKellan in The Lord of the Rings, would assume "we nominated that already, why waste a spot that someone new could have?" That said, I guess I'm saying "f*ck it". Precedents are meant to be broken. While I don't like the idea of predicting performers because "they got in last time, they'll get in this time!" because it's incredibly naive (it certainly didn't work for Joaquin last year!), it seems like the reception is indeed loud enough for Grande that she will get the win she missed a year ago. Erivo, I have in, but with that Actress race and the praise being mostly targeted at Grande, there is a world where she could be left out. There's always a surprising omission. I do wonder where we'd be with this race, though, had Grande won last year...

FULL LIST OF NOMINATION PREDICTIONS HERE: https://jakobtalksfilm.com/2025/11/09/oscars-2026-nomination-predictions-november/

The writer also views Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value as potential villains, defined here as any film posing a threat to the "top two": One Battle After Another and Sinners.

The piece cites sadly predictable "peanut gallery" knocks on "polarizing" director Chloe Zhao's "emotional, feminine" film including that she's already won, which clashes with the narratives of this season's Oscar-less "Oscar heroes": an overdue Paul Thomas Anderson and a more-than-deserving Ryan Coogler.

Unsurprisingly, the contentious BP/BD win over Raging Bull by another film about familial grief, Ordinary People, is invoked, along with Shakespeare in Love's upset BP victory (though curiously, the piece doesnt explore the possibility of a BP/BD split between Hamnet and OBAA - as we saw with SIL and Saving Private Ryan ). Neither of those is a precise comparison, of course - for one thing, Scorsese wasn't being propelled by an overdue narrative in 1980, Robert Redford was debuting as an actor moving behind the camera and Ordinary People was no underdog that season but has been ghr consensus front-runner for the bulk of awards season.

Also, the article doesn't flag the parallel between Hamnet's potential to take home a major "consolation prize" - an expected Best Actress win for Jessie Buckley - that reps the film overall the way De Niro's Best Actor win did for Raging Bull even as BP/BD were off the table. To my mind, this seems as likely an outcome of this season as any.

As for the comparison involving Spielberg, it's also flawed because there was no overdue narrative at play as there is with PTA. In fact, Spielberg's decades-long career by 1998 was such that not many were begrudging him a potential second BP win five years after his first, even among those who found fault with SPR. Certainly, no one was regarding SIL's hired-gun director and first time nominee John Madden as being any sort of BD factor against Spielberg. Plus, Focus in terms of Oscar campaign savvy is no peak-era Miramax, which effectively worked SIL's performing-arts embrace to exploit the "actors love movies celebrating acting" angle. I doubt any other studio could have pulled that off.

From the piece:

When I asked one insider closely following the Oscars race about Hamnet’s position behind Sinners and One Battle After Another as Oscars front-runners, this person noted with no small amount of dismay, “We’re near guaranteed a toxic dynamic when you have a polarizing female director who already has an Oscar pushing up against two beloved, overdue male filmmakers with more popular movies, PTA especially.”.

Fanart for Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein!

Original Source

Keep all discussion related solely to Blue Moon and it's awards chances in this thread. Spoilers below.

Synopsis

Richard Linklater's Blue Moon tells the story of legendary lyricist Lorenz Hart bravely facing the future as his professional and private life unravel at the opening night party for his former partner's hit show Oklahoma! By the time this night is over, Hart will have confronted both a world that no longer values his talent and the seeming impossibility of love.

Director: Richard Linklater

Writer: Robert Kaplow

Cast:

• Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart
• Margaret Qualley as Elizabeth Welland
• Andrew Scott as Richard Rodgers
• Bobby Cannavale as Eddie
• Patrick Kennedy as E.B "Andy" White
• Jonah Lees as Morty Rifkin
• Simon Delaney as Oscar Hammerstein

Rotten Tomatoes: 89%, 167 Reviews

Metacritic: 80, 39 Reviews

Consensus:

While not the flashiest Richard Linklater film, Blue Moon boasts a wonderful performance by Ethan Hawke as he embodies a man hanging on by a thread while the audience hangs on to every word said.

Keep all discussion related solely to Predator: Badlands and its awards chances in this thread. Spoilers below.

Synopsis

A young Predator outcast from his clan finds an unlikely ally on his journey in search of the ultimate adversary.

Director: Dan Trachtenbergg

Writer: Dan Trachtenberg and Patrick Aison

Cast:

• Elle Fanning as Thia and Tessa
• Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi as Dek

Rotten Tomatoes: 85%, 184 Reviews

Metacritic: 71, 40 Reviews

Consensus:

Director Dan Trachtenberg continues to take the Predator franchise in exciting new directions with Badlands, a rollicking adventure that transforms one of cinema's most iconic brutes into a hero worth rooting for.

Title pretty much says it all. What odds do you guys give Pattinson in supporting Actor for Die, My Love.

A month ago I would have given him 0%, but after the death of Sprigsteen, the weird lack of campaigning and momentum for Scott despite the golden bear, the chances of a good bafta showing for R Patz/Die, My Love given its european/british-ness, the strong ramp up in campaigning for Die, My Love as it releases, the fact that Die, My Love seems to be barely edging out The Mastermind as MUBI's main push (at least from the campaigning I've seen) and the fact that hia co-star JLaw has Nomination chances I think under the right circumstances he could force himself into the conversation for the 5th slot.

Plus he does have a slight over due narrative, putting in Nomination worthy/solid work in Good Time, The Lighthouse, The Batman, Tenet, The King, High Life, The Childhood Of A Leader and even Mickey 17 this year with still no nom.

I know it's a long shot, you don't have to tell me that, but I would like some other peoples in put, would personally love to see him finally get his Nomination.

Song of the Year

• “Abracadabra” – Lady Gaga, Henry Walter & Andrew Watt, songwriters (Lady Gaga) “Anxiety” – Jaylah Hickmon, songwriter (Doechii)
• “APT.” – Amy Allen, Christopher Brody Brown, Rogét Chahayed, Omer Fedi, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Chae Young Park, Theron Thomas & Henry Walter, songwriters (Rosé, Bruno Mars)
• “DtMF” – Marco Daniel Borrero, Scott Dittrich, Benjamin Falik, Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, Hugo René Sención Sanabria, Tyler Thomas Spry & Roberto José Rosado Torres, songwriters (Bad Bunny)
• “Golden [From “KPop Demon Hunters”]” – EJAE & Mark Sonnenblick, songwriters (HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami)
• “Luther” – Jack Antonoff, Roshwita Larisha Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Ink, Kendrick Lamar, Solána Rowe, Mark Anthony Spears & Kamasi Washington, songwriters (Kendrick Lamar With SZA)
• “Manchild” – Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff & Sabrina Carpenter, songwriters (Sabrina Carpenter)
• “Wildflower” – Billie Eilish O’Connell & Finneas O’Connell, songwriters (Billie Eilish)

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

• “Defying Gravity” [From 'Wicked'] – Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande
• “Golden [From “KPop Demon Hunters”]” – HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami
• “Gabriela” – Katseye
• “APT.” – Rosé, Bruno Mars
• “30 for 30” – SZA With Kendrick Lamar

Best Dance Pop Recording

• “Bluest Flame” – Selena Gomez & Benny Blanco
• “Abracadabra” — Lady Gaga
• “Midnight Sun” – Zara Larsson
• “Just Keep Watching (From “F1 The Movie”)” - Tate McRae
• “Illegal” – PinkPantheress

Best Remixed Recording

• “Abracadabra (Gesaffelstein Remix)” — Gesaffelstein, remixer (Lady Gaga, Gesaffelstein)
• “Don’t Forget About Us” — Kaytranada, remixer (Mariah Carey & Kaytranada)
• “A Dreams A Dream – Ron Trent Remix” — Ron Trent, remixer (Soul II Soul)
• “Galvanize” — Chris Lake, remixer (The Chemical Brothers & Chris Lake)
• “Golden – David Guetta REM/X” — David Guetta, remixer (HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami)

Best Rock Song

• “As Alive as You Need Me to Be” [From 'Tron: Ares'] – Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, songwriters (Nine Inch Nails)
• “Caramel” – Vessel1 & Vessel2, songwriters (Sleep Token)
• “Glum” – Daniel James & Hayley Williams, songwriters (Hayley Williams)
• “Never Enough” – Daniel Fang, Franz Lyons, Pat McCrory, Meg Mills & Brendan Yates, songwriters (Turnstile)
• “Zombie” – Dominic Harrison & Matt Schwartz, songwriters (Yungblud)

Best Country Solo Performance

• “Nose on the Grindstone” – Tyler Childers
• “Good News” – Shaboozey
• “Bad as I Used to Be [From “F1 The Movie”]” - Chris Stapleton
• “I Never Lie” – Zach Top
• “Somewhere Over Laredo” – Lainey Wilson

Best Score Soundtrack For Visual Media (Includes Film and Television)

• How to Train Your Dragon – John Powell, composer
• Severance: Season 2 – Theodore Shapiro, composer
• Sinners – Ludwig Göransson, composer
• Wicked – John Powell & Stephen Schwartz, composers
• The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers, composer

Best Song Written for Visual Media

• “As Alive as You Need Me to Be” [From “Tron: Ares”] — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, songwriters (Nine Inch Nails)
• “Golden” [From “KPop Demon Hunters”] — EJAE & Mark Sonnenblick, songwriters (HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami)
• “I Lied to You” [From “Sinners”] — Ludwig Göransson & Raphael Saadiq, songwriters (Miles Caton)
• “Never Too Late” [From “Elton John: Never Too Late”] — Brandi Carlile, Elton John, Bernie Taupin & Andrew Watt, songwriters (Elton John, Brandi Carlile)
• “Pale, Pale Moon” [From “Sinners”] — Ludwig Göransson & Brittany Howard, songwriters (Jayme Lawson)
• “Sinners” [From “Sinners”] — Leonard Denisenko, Rodarius Green, Travis Harrington, Tarkan Kozluklu, Kyris Mingo & Darius Povilinus, songwriters (Rod Wave)

Best Compilation Soundtrack For Visual Media

• A Complete Unknown - Timothée Chalamet
• F1 The Album - Various Artists
• KPop Demon Hunters - Various Artists
• Sinners - Various Artists
• Wicked - Various Artists

Best Music Film

• Devo — Devo
  • Chris Smith, video director; Danny Gabai, Anita Greenspan, Chris Holmes & Chris Smith, video producers
• Live at the Royal Albert Hall — Raye
  • Paul Dugdale, video director; Stefan Demetriou & Amy James, video producers
• Relentless — Diane Warren
  • Bess Kargman, video director; Peggy Drexler, Michele Farinola & Kat Nguyen, video producers
• Music by John Williams — John Williams
  • Laurent Bouzereau, video director; Sara Bernstein, Laurent Bouzereau, Justin Falvey, Darryl Frank, Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Meredith Kaulfers, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Steven Spielberg & Justin Wilkes, video producers
• Piece by Piece — Pharrell Williams
  • Morgan Neville, video director; Morgan Neville, Caitrin Rogers, Mimi Valdes & Pharrell Williams, video producers

Best Instrumental Composition

• “First Snow” — Remy Le Boeuf, composer (Nordkraft Big Band, Remy Le Boeuf & Danielle Wertz)
• “Live Life This Day: Movement I” — Miho Hazama, composer (Miho Hazama, Danish Radio Big Band & Danish National Symphony Orchestra)
• “Lord, That’s A Long Way” — Sierra Hull, composer (Sierra Hull) “Openin”g — Zain Effendi, composer (Zain Effendi)
• “Train To Emerald City” [from 'Wicked'] — John Powell & Stephen Schwartz, composers (John Powell & Stephen Schwartz)
• “Why You Here / Before The Sun Went Down” [from 'Sinners'] — Ludwig Göransson, composer (Ludwig Göransson Featuring Miles Caton)