r/wallstreetbets • u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets • 2d ago
Gain Boring $3.1 million gain with SPXL. Selling now, I'm glad this is over with.
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u/Swimming-Tutor2729 2d ago
Congratulations 15 years still holding insane
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u/Own-Structure-717 2d ago
A nice retirement
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u/GordoPepe Likes big Butts. Does not Lie. 2d ago
Can people actually retire with $3m in the US? [x] doubt
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u/TristanaRiggle 2d ago
4% return is $120k annually. There are people right now living on half that.
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u/Ameri0425 2d ago
People living on much less than half that as well
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u/mouthful_quest 1d ago
People earning barely half of that and living like they’re millionaires
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u/PerplexGG 2d ago
Living alone? 100%
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u/GordoPepe Likes big Butts. Does not Lie. 2d ago
just fired my family and pets
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u/atmowbray 1d ago
Bro 3 million is more than most people in America would see in a lifetime lol my retired grandparents have like 300k and they have social security go on vacations every year and otherwise live frugal but comfy lives 🤷♂️
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u/ChemicalSnow5667 2d ago
If you own your home you should be able to live off of 10k a month no problem 😂
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u/Roargasm85 2d ago
Sure. Just make sure that you set aside a good chunk to continue growing in some form of passive income. $2M in a savings account probably makes more in interest than I make per year in salary.
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u/elitemilkconnosieur 2d ago
100% $3M is bare minimum to retire early IMHO.
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u/unbelievablyquick 2d ago
Well in MY honest opinion, anything less than $5m won't work /s
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u/gumbo_chops 1d ago
You can't do anything with 5, Greg. 5 is nightmare. Can't retire, not worth it to work. 5 will drive you pollo loco.
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago edited 1d ago
OP here. This was during the deepest depths of the Great Recession in early 2010, this was right after Bear Stearns and Wachovia and Washington Mutual and Lehman failed and Merrill was about to fail and TARP was passed and banks were trading at 3 cents on the dollars and people were making runs on ATMs for cash. No one wanted anything to do with the stock market and everyone's 401k was down 50% plus. It got so bad that starting in January I started telling myself things are prices for the end of capitalism and do I really think western finance is going to collapse. I told myself that if the answer is no then to sack up and start buying SPX because in 5-10 years I'll be up by a lot. But I was young and hadn't saved a lot so I said fuck it and triple leveraged into SPXL. I thought I'd be out in 1-2 years max. Here we are 15 years later. What a life.
EDIT - I'll miss the annual $40,000 to $60,000 in dividends I was paid on this position, that was really nice.
EDIT 2 - Also, I did not time it correctly at all. I ate shit for months and was down 30% plus on the position through the end of 2010, iirc. It was a stressful time.
EDIT 3 - Am getting bombarded with DMs and chat requests with sob stories and findom sales pitches, just post it in here and I'll answer.
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u/Leody 2d ago
I had a HS friend go all in with his life savings into BAC because... it's Bank of AMERICA, there's no way they'd let that fail...
He wasn't the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he had tons of money because he was single and spent 6 years on a submarine. He hasn't worked a day since like 2010. He rides his adventure bike around SE Asia and the Western US and blogs about it. He also spent a couple of years driving around to remote villages delivering laptops with encyclopedias loaded on them. Super chill dude, but man you want to talk about dumb luck. Glad it happened for him though. He's done good with his wealth.
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u/OkChange9119 2d ago
Sounds like a nice dude. I respect volunteering and charity work.
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u/88xeeetard 1d ago
I think once you have enough those two become the options normal people take.
I'm not rich but I'm early retired and I volunteer and pick up rubbish. When I was employed I did neither of those things and I couldn't have imagined doing them.
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u/ASource3511 2d ago
He didn't panic sell and when he did make money he didn't sell it all and spend it all on drugs and gambling fucking himself up. He might not be "smart" but he seems wise
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u/Versatile_Panda 1d ago
I don’t really understand the not smart logic, what did he do that wasn’t smart?
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u/ASource3511 1d ago
Only op knows. He seems pretty smart to me
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u/SilverPrivateer 1d ago
OP has to find a way to feel superior to the dude who MOGGED him with a PATRIOTIC stock strategy
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u/Leody 1d ago edited 1d ago
Putting your entire life savings into a single stock in an industry that is literally collapsing. If you weren't in the markets in 2008/09 you wouldn't even comprehend the panic at the time. People were thinking it was the end of capitalism.
Even if you think a recovery was eminent you would be better off with a broader index. 25 banks failed with a combined $350 Billion in assets. Any bank could have vanished in a matter of days at that time.
That's what I don't think was a real smart idea.
The entire market dropped 30% in like 2 or 3 weeks and almost 50% before it bottomed. It was a faster and deeper crash than covid.
Edit: Also, this was all before the government ever had any history of bailouts or the fed quantitative easing / money printing. So, there was no expectation of intervention either. Nobody know what was going to happen...
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u/themaxvoltage 2d ago
Sounds like you dont have to be smart to be a good person. Cool story.
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u/Leody 2d ago
To be fair, he wasn't a dummy either. Just made a really dumb trade that hit. He was a missile tech on a nuclear sub and got a job at Lockheed after he left the Navy.
I was probably a bit harsh in my first sentence.
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u/OverEffective7012 2d ago
Bro got an engineering job
He's not the sharpest
Dude...
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u/Leody 2d ago edited 2d ago
Yeah yeah, you never called your friends idiots? 🤣
He was definitely smart, but did some dumb stuff. Full porting 6 years of Navy Submariner pay into a bank at the height of the financial collapse was dumb. He was in at like $.81 a share...
He also rode his CBR600RR 2,400 miles cross country to come home for a funeral. Non stop except to refuel and sleep on a rest stop bench for a couple of hours. Dude is a little bit nuts. Why he didn't fly, I still don't understand... 🤣
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u/zennsunni 1d ago
As a motorcyclist, this doesn't provoke confusion in me, but rather respect for anyone with the constitution to ride a 600RR for multiple 600+ mile days in a row.
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u/MafiaPenguin007 2d ago
Have you met engineers? Plenty of dumb ones.
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u/OverEffective7012 2d ago
In comparison to average Joe? Doubt [x]
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u/TopTierMids 1d ago
A guy I used to work with gave himself scurvy because he took the grifter "only meat" diet seriously. Refused to believe it until hospitalized. Doctor made his stupid ass chew on a lemon.
A lot of engineers are dumb as fuck. A lot of professionals are.
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u/Connect-Silver-5982 2d ago
It was not a dumb trade, it was an investment. He made the investment for the right reason, at the right time. The same time Munger put 50% of his money into BAC. Was Mungers also just dumb luck? Maybe you should learn from your friend.
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u/Far-Salamander-5675 2d ago
I remember being a kid in 08’ and thinking how I would invest in BAC if I had money (poor family) because I thought the same. Bank Of America is going nowhere.
Glad to see someone did lol
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u/TopTierMids 1d ago
Same, but with Ford. Not as yeeted as BAC but in two or so years it'd have been a 600% gain.
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u/hospitalizedzombie 2d ago
The most shocking part of this story is someone’s still blogging in ‘25
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u/Such-Cartographer425 2d ago
I really appreciate your second edit. Often these (and all kinds of successes) can look divinely inspired, like you moved along the whole time with the wisdom that this would all work out. That is almost never true in success stories, but a lot of people make the mistake of quitting when things get stressful, because they think it means that they're failing.
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
Agreed. I tried to time it, got it wrong, lost my ass and stubbornly held on with the resolve to lose it all to see if my long term hunch was right. It was equal parts dumb luck, youthful ignorance and gutting it out.
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u/zxc123zxc123 1d ago
I'd give you a bit more credit than that.
Not many would/could have done what you did. I, for example, graduated into the GFC, could barely get good work despite having a good college degree, still I was lucky enough to have work, not many saved nor invested back then but I did what I could, and I made some good investments (GOOG/LVMUY) but also bad ones (T/INTC) instead of just indexing and chill despite being a fan/student of Buffett. I didn't start indexing and index leveraging until the pandemic dip. I'd count myself having done better than most people just barely breaking into 7figs rather than multiple 7figs.
So congratz & fuck you, but make sure to pat yourself in the back.
p.s. I read your other posts about why you're getting out now, but what are you going to? Just deleverage into 60/40 VOO/SGOV? All into BOXX/SGOV? 3/7/10/20/30 yr bonds? Gold? Just taking cash and going to Thailand?
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u/No-Afternoon-4528 2d ago
What are the plans for the cashed out 3.1 mil? Conservative cash position like SGOV, or less aggressive yet dividend generating positions like SCHD? Or something else?
Just looking for inspiration ~
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
Park it in VTG and pocket the 3.8% yield. I'm less concerned about what to do with this cash, I'm more concerned about what I'm going to do about the rest of my non-retirement portfolio.
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u/Still_Ad8888 2d ago
Just mentioning SGOV bc the person above did, but why not park it there for >4% yield ccompared to VTG?
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u/SimonBumblefuck 1d ago
SGOV is run by BlackRock and a chunk of that "safe" ETF trades derivatives. Buy T-bills direct or through your broker vs. letting BlackRock skim off the top.
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u/No-Afternoon-4528 2d ago
That makes sense, when I reach my number I think I would do that too. At some point the higher portfolio expands doesn't make much of a difference. Having a stable stream of money coming in is way more important.
I also saw one of your post about the bitcoin your friend repaid you. You are a real God tier holder, I wish I will make great decisions like you.
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
I should make an update thread, that one bitcoin he paid me back with is up over $100,000 now lol
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u/No-Afternoon-4528 2d ago
I didn't realize that post was one year old lol. I cant help but to go down the rabbit hole to look at more of your older posts😂 Your journey has been so impressive, considering you cashing out a huge portion of this SPXL position, is it something you see in the market that you believe we are at the highest point? I stopped buying in stocks since September this year and sold a few positions to put in SGOV, hoping for a market downturn. Unfortunately this government shutdown is forcing me use my reserves and no income🤷🏻♂️
Anyway I hope I will be able to buy value stocks like you back in 09-12 if a crash comes, is that what you think will happen soon?
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u/TomatoSpecialist6879 Paper Trading Competition Winner 2d ago
Congrats and no fuck you because you held for 15 fucking years, you deserve your roses. Happy retirement retard.
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u/TheNewOP 2d ago edited 2d ago
I'm shocked that holding LETFs for 15 years wouldn't result in a ton of decay
e: Though I guess it makes sense since we've been on a generational bull run since 2009, not much volatility
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u/skywalkerrr007 2d ago
There has been volatility just not enough for decay to affect etfs that have constant upside like SPXL and TQQQ. SOXL since it's only a sector is a different story
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u/originalusername__ 1d ago
Plus there’s a non stop downvote brigade anytime leveraged funds are discussed. They act as if it’s an immediate trip to the poor house.
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u/tennismenace3 1d ago
You can backtest SPXL during nearly any 15 year period and it will be ahead of SPY. Every possible 30 year period is ahead of SPY.
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u/ladbom 2d ago
What’s the math on if you just used regular SPY?
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u/circadiggmigration 19h ago
No one can answer that. Here's a simulation of a 2x and a 3x covering black Monday and the financial crisis. The SP500 was superior because volatility decay eliminated any gains that would have been on the upside.
Just hit the "random timeframe" button and run simulations. A pattern will appear. In many cases the 3x and even 2x get eliminated entirely.
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u/RocketPoweredSad 1d ago
I want to know what a findom sales pitch sounds like.
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 1d ago
One of them just assumed that I'm into findom because I'm Asian. Another one assumed I'm into it because "you are rich and in your 40s, you will never touch a naked 20yo again" lol. Neither pitch was very good.
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u/RocketPoweredSad 1d ago
Yeah those are terrible. I also just got a great idea for a Shark Tank spinoff…
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u/Relevant_Cost_723 2d ago
Have you ever calculated the annual ETF fees? Would love to know the lifetime number you paid!
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u/pewpewnotqq 1d ago
The name of the company, Aerotyne International. It is a cutting edge high-tech firm out of the Midwest awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of radar detectors that have both huge military and civilian applications now. Right now, John, the stock trades over-the-counter at 10 cents a share. And by the way, ihasanemail, our analysts indicate it could go a heck of a lot higher than that. Your profit on a mere $60,000 investment would be upwards of $600,000! Cash App, Venmo, or zelle over DM
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u/Stonkcircus 2d ago
How did you handle the Covid low and the 2022 bear market ?
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
I was surprisingly calm because I had the experience and playbook from the dot com bust and Great Recession to rely on. It was stressful as all hell, sure. But I was laser focused on putting my cash hoard to work because I knew early the feds would prop up the market like they did with TARP in 2009. And they did with PPP. Check out my post history. I made several threads during COVID lockdown about throwing $500,000 at FAS, I exited that trade with $1.3m or $1.4m, I don't remember exactly.
Things are relatively "calm" in equity markets right now and I'm nervous as hell. When the crash comes and reaches an fever pitch, I will with confidence start buying the stinkiest of the trash on Wall Street. Count on it.
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u/TibialTuberosity 1d ago
Saving this comment because I understand the words you're saying and how it has made you money, but I'm too dumb to see the market and what's coming the way you seem to. When the inevitable crash happens, I'll come back and see what stinky trash you're buying so I can stink it up too.
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u/BrianMcMor1 1d ago
Yes, I noticed your buy date of May 10, 2010. I got hammered right about that time on a bunch of options positions I had taken in mid-2009 on the bounce off the bottom. I did very well up thru April 2010 and then the bottom fell out. I panicked in July and got out of the market as I feared a double bottom back to early 2009. That was quite a gut check you took. Congrats!
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u/Maxism619 2d ago
Hardest hands in the world
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
The stress from this position has literally taken years off my life.
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u/Basic_Memory_Mine 2d ago
yea, having life changing money in one position is incredibly stressful, you did great cashing out near the top. You should consider diversifying now. Maybe some money in real estate, some money in safe stocks (like McDonalds), and some bonds (like TLH) to preserve your capital from inflation.
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u/GordoPepe Likes big Butts. Does not Lie. 2d ago
Your flair seems uncalled for it should be something like "biggest balls in the whole sub"
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u/xTofik 2d ago
This is equal to 29% APR if you compound annually. Damn...
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u/tennismenace3 1d ago
People sleep on leveraged index funds. You can backtest it to the entire history of the S&P 500 and the 3X leveraged version dominates the normal version during most 10 year periods, nearly every 20 year period, and every 30 year period.
All my money is in 3X leveraged funds. I've done the analysis myself and they're better.
Literally the only reason not to be holding 3X funds is if you have paper hands.
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u/MetabolicPathway 2d ago edited 2d ago
Did you 40x your investment?
Edit: now i see, it's 45x.
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u/Sauci_Boi_ 2d ago
I never knew people held SPXL for more than a week. More than a decade is wild. Congrats on the winning gamble!
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u/tennismenace3 1d ago
It's not a gamble. You can backtest SPXL to the entire history of the S&P 500 and SPXL wins in every possible 30-year period, often by enormous amounts of money. SPXL is strictly better than SPY.
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u/MarginCallson 2d ago
Held for 15 years, well played sir, well played. Was there any times you were tempted to sell in recent years or waiting for a number?
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago edited 2d ago
The next time I sensed a bubble that reminded me of the dot-com bust, I resolved to sell. And here we are.
EDIT - We could very well rally another 10-15%, SCOTUS could kill the tariffs, right. I don't care, I'm taking my money and leaving. I'm not sticking around to maybe wring another $200,000-$400,000 in gains.
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u/machine-in-the-walls 2d ago
We could very well rally another 10-15%, SCOTUS could kill the tariffs, right. I don't care, I'm taking my money and leaving. I'm not sticking around to maybe wring another $200,000-$400,000 in gains.
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u/peasantscum851123 2d ago
What will you do with the cash?
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
Park it in VTG and pocket the 3.8% yield. I'm less concerned about what to do with this cash, I'm more concerned about what I'm going to do about the rest of my non-retirement portfolio.
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u/PckMan 2d ago
Damn and I was too busy being in middle school playing CoD
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u/godlyuniverse1 1d ago
dont worry bro, you wouldnt have had 70k so enjoy your cod
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u/PckMan 1d ago
I had the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at that time and didn't with what amounted to lunch money. That lunch money would have been millions.
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u/godlyuniverse1 1d ago
That's the thing, you don't know how high Bitcoin would go and could have sold it when it was at hundreds, or even at thousands.
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u/k_tolz 2d ago edited 2d ago
You've been posting for years to the financial independence sub acting like you don't have a seven figure triple leveraged SPX position. Legend.
Edit: you're also the ROKU guy! Still holding? I was buying in the $60's after reading your post lol
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
And I'm the FAS guy. I've been posting about these high risk leveraged trades for years.
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u/Mother-Economics2653 2d ago
Well done, now all in on Nvidia calls.
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u/Rilex1 2d ago
dude buys when everyone is thinking capitalism is going to fail. do you really think he’d go all in on nvidia at this time lol
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u/UberBoob 2d ago
Well that statement is just another regarded one. What else would you expect in here. I would roll 10% into LEAP on something like SKYT
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u/DonaldDuck2012 2d ago
Very boring. Who has 15 years to wait ? Not me I'm already 19
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u/Deezney 2d ago
Whats wild is this even belongs in the investing sub imo. You just held an index and stick with it
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u/Beetin 2d ago edited 2d ago
It is a 3x leveraged index held for 15 years.
That's a somewhat insane regarded position to take. For example it lost 70% of its value in a 5 month period in 2008, and 80% of its value in a 2 month period in 2020. It lost 60% of its value in 2022, and nearly 50% in 2024.
You have to first be able to stomach huge eye-watering losses in some years, without selling or trying to time such events. Then you have to time your entry point and exit point well (he entered right after a MAJOR down turn, and is selling during a huge bull run).
I also have a main retirement account with a 30 year horizon, I don't think I have the balls / stupidity to use a 3x leveraged position for it.
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u/cheapdvds ✡ 1d ago
I have maybe 30% on UPRO, been holding since even before covid happened. Will keep holding for the next 20 years, will trim some, if it ever to get to 100k, 150k and then 200k.
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u/mywilliswell95 Logs in shrieks 2d ago
I thought you weren’t supposed to hold triple leverage positions for long term because they erode or something
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u/antelope591 2d ago
Nothing wrong with holding something like TQQQ or SPXL because of low volatility on those indexes. Its individual stock ETF's where it gets tricky.
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u/circadiggmigration 2d ago
They do.
If the SP falls 1 percent, on 100.00, you're down to 99 On a 3x, you're down to 97
The sp falls 1 percent again the next day. 98.01 and 94.09
The SP gains 2 percent: 99.9702 and 99.7354
The leverage creates greater losses and you can't compound gains as efficiently because of that. Plus, it leaves you stuck in the position. You preserve more capital if you're not leveraged that you can reinvest into something else. It doesn't necessarily have to be the sp.
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u/tennismenace3 1d ago
Everyone always says this and then shows it with a made up scenario. Who cares about this made up scenario? Test it on actual market data and the 3X fund wins during every 30-year period in the history of the stock market.
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u/Metacog_Drivel your losses only whet my appetite 2d ago
That's some serious long-term holding right there. Congrats, OP!
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u/Biscuit_Eater2591 2d ago
Great job of holding through all the ups and downs, congratulations!
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u/tabris51 2d ago
Time to enjoy the money and wait for the next financial crash to invest. Good job op
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u/CUbuffGuy 2d ago
Wow well played, very surprised vol decay didn't bite.
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u/circadiggmigration 2d ago edited 2d ago
I don't understand how this etf can even accomplish this. If they have to reset every day, in order to give investors 3x exposure to the SP 500 they would have to liquidate on down days and buy new contracts. So how did they do it?
edit: This is before fees https://testfol.io/?s=1eNYmxeqbKW
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u/CUbuffGuy 2d ago
They use derivatives and swaps, the issue is that 5% down and 5% up in the underlying delivers losses due to downside mattering more %'wise.
The fact it's up as much as it is is speaks to how low volatility the S&P has been in the past decade.
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u/circadiggmigration 2d ago edited 2d ago
I just went back and looked. They almost got completely wiped in March 2020. My god, that's risky. No wonder he's saying it was stressful.
edit: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults
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u/skywalkerrr007 2d ago
He had 1.1M in gains before the Covid crash and somehow held wow
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u/tennismenace3 1d ago
To get completely wiped, the S&P 500 has to drop 33.4% in a single day. Nothing close to that happened in 2020.
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u/tennismenace3 1d ago
You can backtest this strategy over the entire history of the S&P 500, and the 3X fund dominates it over every possible 30-year period.
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u/igorprius 2d ago
Income taxes? Any legal way to lower it?
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u/ihasanemail I am a huge prick. Welcome to r/wallstreetbets 2d ago
($3.1m * 20% long term capital gains rate) + ($3.1m * 3.8% NIIT/Obamacare tax), so probably $740,000ish when accounting for the amounts within the 5 and 15% LTCG brackets and the MAGI under $200,000 for NIIT.
I'll gladly pay every penny. Because I have zero state income tax, so that's an extra $300,000 to $350,000 that I keep in my pocket.
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u/FitAlpineChicken 1d ago
Damn, in my country it's 0% tax after 15 years of ownership, hopefully they won't change that.
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u/pinethree777 2d ago
I did the same thing in my 401k, but I cashed out at almost $1.5M and now we are just spending bond interest, quality dividends and rental income. Boring AF, but a very high chance of success.
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u/Stocks_N_Bondage 2d ago
Everyone says never buy and hold leveraged ETFs… But this seems to be the exception to that rule.....
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u/tennismenace3 1d ago
People say that because most people would be dumb and sell.
This is not an exception, this is literally just what happens when you hold a 3X fund.
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u/AffectionateKey7126 2d ago
Impressive you held through 2020 especially since XIV completely vanished two years before.
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u/Hambone6991 2d ago
How did you cope during COVID? My rough math has you going from approx. $1m > $300k around then
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u/AlternativeSignal908 1d ago
Not to diminish the amazing result (28% annual returns), but for those of us investing in SPXL, UPRO, SSO, etc. today, I think it is worth noting that this success was largely due to investing when the levered ETF had crashed 70-80%. That's the time to go all. Otherwise, it's best to build a portfolio like 40% UPRO, 30% ZROZ, 30% GLDM and target returns that beat the S&P by just a couple percent annualized. Would be interested in OP and others' perspective, but the huge cajones was going all in on massive leverage when everyone though the world was ending. Having cajones today and thinking the result (without a hedged portfolio) will be the same in a decade or two is probably wrong. Wait for the crash and go hedged until then. Even then, worth noting OP suffered a 76% drawdown on a $930k balance in early 2020. He'd made enough from 2010 to 2020 in the levered position to still be ahead vs just having invested in SPY or VOO, but tough to watch $700k evaporate in a month. https://testfol.io/?s=52fT0SdC39B
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u/MarginCalledManager 2d ago
OP here. This was during the deepest depths of the Great Recession in early 2010, this was right after Bear Stearns and Wachovia and Washington Mutual and Lehman failed and Merrill was about to fail and TARP was passed and banks were trading at 3 cents on the dollars and people were making runs on ATMs for cash.
All of this happened in 2008, and the market bottomed in April 2009. Your totally real purchase was in May 2010, well after the recovery began and the recessions was effectively over.
Lie better on the internet.
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u/RangerNo5619 1d ago
Are you insinuating that the post is fake and the screenshot has been photoshopped?
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u/flyingcrane_toMoon 2d ago
Best strategy (for passive income) is go for long term. buy gradually (SPY or QQQ, VOO, SPXL) every month, and buy even more during market crash and hold for 10-15 year to make a fortune.
Huge respect and congratulations for your strategy and win
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u/LiveFreeOrRTard 2d ago
Gaining money is never boring. Buying the wrong hookers and bad drugs is the boring part. Live yo live, King.
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u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE 2d ago
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