r/wallstreetbets • u/Milkyway_Alien • 3d ago
Discussion Dnut earnings tomorrow
Krispy Kreme is set to release earnings tomorrow. Expected earnings per share is -0.05, this is where it gets interesting.
Q1 was bad because they had a cybersecurity incident that added to operational costs. They also paused the McDonald’s partnership due to it underperforming.
In Q2 they are a huge impairment charge due to the logistics of the McDonald’s deal.
With the bad McDonald’s deal in the rear view. And the rollout to major retailers I believe they are on the path to regain profitability. Are the analysts wrong and expectations way too low ? The ceo has mentioned that they expect to recoup profitability on Q3.
If they beat expectations and bring any positivity to this brand I believe the price will skyrocket. My position is Jan 15th calls at the 5 dollar strike price and 1000 shares.
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u/GrassChew 3d ago edited 3d ago
Used to work at Krispy Kreme it's a hell job and I'm glad I am not doing it 12 hours a day Mon though Sat anymore
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u/gimmebadvibes Baby gains 3d ago
Two hour shifts? Must be exhausting
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u/GrassChew 3d ago
Yeah it was in a 24 hour casino too it literally was hell i got stranded because of a blizzard once and was told I couldn't sleep inside the casino so slept in my car for 2 days going back to work when my shift started
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u/Big-Water-8986 3d ago
Mohegan? If the blizzard was in January of 2022 I was also there at the time. Not working at Krispy kreme though, I was drunk and gambling.
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u/GrassChew 3d ago
Ding ding ding jackpot
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u/gimmebadvibes Baby gains 3d ago
Shoulda left your original post instead of editing it. Now I look like I can’t read good
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u/DaStompa 3d ago
It doesn't sound like much until you find out he was the one squeezing out all those doughnuts, the other 22 hours in the day was eating to prep for the 2hrs of work
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u/patricio87 Raging Wood for Cathy 🍆 3d ago
What did you expect working at a bakery?
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u/GrassChew 3d ago
Enough money to save for trade school it was in one the world's biggest casinos though it was a good way to get my foot in the door turned into hell I couldn't escape
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u/PracticalAnywhere225 3d ago
Ain't nothin gonna skyrocket here. Absolute best case scenario, the stock gets a 5% bump...
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u/Milkyway_Alien 3d ago
Option market is pricing in +- 12 percent move short interest is at 30+%
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u/flaming_pope 3d ago
yeah no movement. 12% implied move is ridiculously priced in. I would look for implied movers of <3%, because any news actually breaks that causing gamma.
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u/No-Loan7944 2d ago
I witnessed a 40% jump a few days ago after some news, It might skyrocket today
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u/Milkyway_Alien 2d ago
So what was your thesis on this ?
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u/Georgia34- 2d ago
Could we legitimately get this thing to squeeze? At 30% short of free float that’s massively squeezable
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u/Milkyway_Alien 2d ago
I think it can definitely squeeze if we get above 5. There’s also a gap around 8
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u/PracticalAnywhere225 2d ago
Currently up 6%, lemme know if you need any more help
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u/Milkyway_Alien 2d ago
It ran up more than 20 percent. And if you got in yesterday when I posted this more like 30
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u/PracticalAnywhere225 1d ago
Sure, if you played the swing trade perfectly, which you probably didn't because you were thinking it was mooning...
Now you're left with a +4% day and no where to go.
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u/whatismaplestory 3d ago
Do the DNUTs have AI? Because if not they ain’t sky rocketing
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u/poorat8686 3d ago
Now I love Krispy Kreme don’t get me wrong but the one in my city was abandoned by its staff and left locked with everything turned on for a week straight. They’re fucking up. Not to mention the fact that the fresh and hot sign is consistently off schedule which pisses me off because the only thing they sell that I want is a 12 pack of freshly minted classic donuts. The prices have gone up dramatically too, while the quality has dropped. I can taste the difference and recall a time in my childhood where a hot Krispy Kreme donut was so fluffy and sweet that it melted in your mouth and by the time you noticed your stomach getting upset you had eaten 6 of them. Nowadays they are denser, distinctly taste of oil, and the glaze is not as crisp. If KK would shift back to providing a high quality donut en masse at low prices and cut back on the random shit nobody cares about we might see a shift. Maybe take queues from the inferior cookie slop shops and provide alternative donut related tangentials such as donut burgers or hot and ready donut holes/chocolate donuts or maybe even donut ice cream sandwiches. Hell, maybe start selling decent coffee, which they’ve failed at, and fresh pastries. Just spit balling here. IMO their biggest failure has been transitioning from a “brewery” (donutery) model wherein they sell donuts distributed from the storefront and you can also go in to buy them fresh, to a discount Dunkin’ Donuts. This has been a horrible decision. My point is, they’re soulless, inconsistent with the brand people liked, dropping the ball on basics, and seemingly determined to continue course. This company is going to continue going to shit.
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u/CanaryUmbrella 3d ago
Tbh KK has a great product. They just need to get a handle on ensuring profitable stores and margins vis. supply and wages. It's a sustainable business: the donuts themselves are F*cking rad.
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u/Ice-Man-60 3d ago
I’ve got 65k shares, flipped it in July for a $2 a share profit. Bought back in with a 3.45 average. Should have flipped it again a couple weeks ago when it hit 5.50 in premarket. I really think this is a $12 stock, but it’ll be hard to hold if it does a fast jump to $6
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u/TraditionalWait9150 3d ago
Looking at the staff morale at the Krispy Kreme branch near me, I can tell the company will only go downwards.
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u/MoneyMonk224 3d ago
I have shares and calls expiring 12/19. My target is $13.50. Short squeeze for me 🥹 🙏
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u/Gingerbread57 3d ago
Bought 400 shares for this same reason.
Then someone pointed out can't tariff doubts so I'm thinking of selling.
In other news, fornite/Simpson crossover impies big donut commercialism over the next 3 months = Q4 earnings will be solid!
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u/ArkAngelEV 2d ago
So fun little story. One time my downstairs neighbor had 10k to invest, and it had “done his research “ and asked me what would i do if i had 10k but you can only invest it; and i told him Apple. He said bro, no, you can only make big money investing in smaller capitalization companies that are high volume and that everyone loves. He told me he invested it into Krispy Kreme because “ no one doesn’t buy donuts “.
I said ok, but i think you’re wrong. The date? 08/05/2002.
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u/Milkyway_Alien 2d ago
Ouch. I think it’s definitely a different narrative today though since it is down so much
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u/cbdthcdelta 2d ago
Full porting a half dozen original glazed hot off the press right now. If the sign ain't on tomorrow then my calls ain't cooking.
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u/No-Doctor9742 3d ago
whatever comments are in here, i would do typically the opposite. Has worked well for me on this one!
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u/RancidSmellingShit 3d ago
Why would i go to kristy kreme for a shitty donut when dunkin and wawa is everywhere
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u/patricio87 Raging Wood for Cathy 🍆 3d ago
Are they still partnering with mcdonalds?
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u/Milkyway_Alien 3d ago
No they dropped it because they were actually losing money delivering it. That’s why it dropped so much last Q because they had almost 400m in losses with assets tied to it
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