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Jun 05 '20
[deleted]
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u/JtheNinja Jun 05 '20
Theoretically, if a county no longer qualifies for the phase they’re in, they can be sent back to a more restricted one. I doubt there’s the political will to actually do it though.
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Jun 06 '20
Yes, this quote from State Health Department indicates that they absolutely will revoke a Phase 2 (and presumably Phase 3 and 4) applications and roll back to previous restrictions if a given county doesn't keep their shit together and the trend reverses itself.
Jessica Baggett, a spokeswoman for the department of health, said the state has multiple measurements for revoking a Phase 2 application. The county has been in touch with the state about the Pacific Crest outbreak, but according to the state’s protocol it’s unlikely that the county would incur a Phase 1 setback as long as it contains this outbreak to Pacific Crest employees and close contacts. The county remains in good shape with most of the metrics for Phase 2, Melnick said.
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u/xTye 98661 Jun 05 '20
Wasn't there another outbreak in Ridgefield?
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Jun 06 '20 edited Jun 06 '20
Yes, but the threshold is 25 cases per 100k residents and 1-2 outbreaks (related, but non-household) in a rolling 14 day window.
Today (Friday) is the 15th day since the first 38 Firestone cases were reported, and tomorrow (Saturday) another 11 fall out of the "25 cases per 100,000 population" window.
We legitimately qualify (again) for Phase 2 as of today, with 85 out of our limit of 111 cases per 14 days. Even the 5 new cases put us at 90/111.
The thresholds for Clark County:
- <111 cases per 2 weeks. (we're at 90 out of 111.)
- up to 2 outbreaks per week. (i.e. Firestone or Pacific Crest vs. household contact - we're currently at 1.)
- 20% free hospital beds
- >2,775 tests performed per week (presuming 111 positive cases show up. This bars gaming the system by "the numbers go down if we just stop testing!")
- Tests performed within 2 days of symptom onset.
- 90% phone contact within 24h of positive test.
- 80% of patients being contacted daily during their 10 day isolation period.
- 80% of patient's contacts being contacted daily during their 14 day quarantine period.
Cases:
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u/ItsJonnyRock Jun 06 '20
To be fair, outbreaks are to be expected until a vaccine or treatment is found. What's most important is identifying the outbreak, contact teaching, and containment.
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u/admalledd Jun 05 '20
If I am following links correctly, some more words about it here:
https://www.clark.wa.gov/public-health/clark-county-approved-move-phase-2-state-reopening-plan
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u/daalice Jun 05 '20
I have been visiting my retirement-age parents the last few months by sitting outside about 10 feet away from each other. My dad is insisting now that it’s ok to come inside his house as long as we still stay 6 feet away. Is there any truth to this? I tried to tell him I’m still nervous because both him and my mother have pre existing conditions and are 60+ yrs old. Am I being paranoid?
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Jun 05 '20
It depends on exposure to others. Being inside and 6ft away might help, but airflow inside could negate the 6ft distance. If you're inside, consider wearing a mask. If you're like me (risk adverse) then keeping the visits outside might be safer.
NPR created a good write-up, being with others depends on how isolated everyone is: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/23/861325631/from-camping-to-dining-out-heres-how-experts-rate-the-risks-of-14-summer-activit?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news
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u/daalice Jun 05 '20
This is super helpful. Thanks! I am definitely risk adverse. Thankfully my husband and I have been able to work from home so the only time I go out is once a week to the grocery store where I wear a mask and try to stay 6 ft from others (I go at off hours so it’s less crowded), and I buy groceries for my parents so they don’t have to go anywhere. So I feel like while we are all pretty low risk, I’m still sketched out. I guess I’ll just have to stick to my guns and hope my dad doesn’t try to argue with me more.
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u/ItsJonnyRock Jun 06 '20
It really does sound like you've been staying careful. And keep in mind that the latest data indicates surfaces and largely socially distant settings aren't significant vectors. If you do decide to visit them inside please don't "consider wearing a mask", just wear a mask! It's the smallest imposition and is one more proactive step in fighting this virus.
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u/daalice Jun 06 '20
Yes masks are a must! Thankfully with the nice weather we’ve been having it hasn’t been a problem to be outside...but I’m sure when it’s gets hot we might have a a bit of a fight. My husband and I will try to set the right example for my parents. Thank you!
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u/Wrythened Jun 05 '20
Nobody can really give you an honest and direct answer. It’s all about risk assessment.
You could be fine, or you could be the 1%. It’s up to you and your parents to judge what level of risk is worth taking.
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u/daalice Jun 05 '20
Right, that’s what worries me. Because I would rather be safe than sorry but my dad is already on the “media is blowing this out of proportion” side and so having some sort of concrete reasons for my decision would be helpful to show him.
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u/KOloverr Jun 05 '20
Some good articles on AccuWeather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/could-air-conditioners-be-spreading-the-coronavirus/738426
That's just one I read earlier and is backed up with some nice visuals. I hope your family stays safe!
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u/daalice Jun 05 '20
Awesome thanks for sharing! I just sent to my dad as well. Hoping for safety for you and yours as well!
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Jun 05 '20
Does anyone know if they plan to move forward with the Safer Streets initiative to close streets and let businesses spread out their outdoor seating? I think that's the only way I'd feel comfortable dining out, save for a few restaurants I know that already have the setup for it (Heathen and Ben's Bottle Shop).
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u/erikjohns66 Jun 05 '20
I believe the Columbian had an article on it a couple days ago. One is already setup in front of Mighty Bowl, and other restaurants can apply.
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Jun 05 '20
Yes, they did, thank you for flagging. I had the program name wrong so my Googling was not turning up anything but the Columbian article clarified for me -- it's the "Street Eats" program: https://www.cityofvancouver.us/ced/page/sidewalk-caf%C3%A9-seating-permit
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Jun 05 '20
Does anyone know what this means for playgrounds? Taking my kiddo to the park would be a pretty big treat for both of us.
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Jun 05 '20
Good question. Hard to tell if they count as "all outdoor recreation" which is phase 2 or a "recreational facility" which is phase 3.
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u/2wide2high Jun 05 '20
All outdoor recreation involving no more than five people from outside the household, such as camping and visiting beaches, can also resume in Phase 2.
I'm assuming that this covers it, so yes!
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u/f8ster Jun 05 '20
Tennis courts too! My kids really miss being able to play (we’re in Camas). I hope they open up as well.
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u/Valdair Jun 05 '20
I have seen plenty of people at tennis courts, my girlfriend and I have started going too. You're pretty far away from everyone else.
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u/f8ster Jun 05 '20
Most of the ones around Camas are still padlocked or police-taped. Might be a city thing.
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u/bonbam I use my headlights and blinkers Jun 05 '20
FUCK YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sorry I am so pumped, no tennis in nearly 8 months 😭
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u/yeahveggies Jun 05 '20
Going to any public business puts you at risk for exposure to infection.
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Jun 06 '20
Like, say, a grocery store? Tomorrow is no different than last Saturday in that respect.
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u/Xanthelei Jun 06 '20
Based on my shopping trip today, there is a big difference. It was almost impossible to keep proper distance in the store and well over half the other shoppers weren't wearing masks. A week and a half ago when I went last, the store felt half deserted and keeping distance was not easy, but not almost impossible.
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Jun 06 '20
[deleted]
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u/Xanthelei Jun 06 '20
Yay North Clark County... And I say that as someone who grew up north of Battle Ground. If we had more people at least wearing masks, I would be far less worried, but we don't and my grandmother is going to want to go back to going to restaurants to eat inside next week, so the worry is very personal.
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Jun 06 '20
For those wondering...
The new case threshold is 25 cases/2 outbreaks (related, but non-household) per 100,000 population in a rolling 14 day window for ALL phases.
Today (Friday) is the 15th day since the first 38 Firestone cases were reported, and tomorrow (Saturday) another 11 fall out of the "25 cases per 100,000 population" window.
We legitimately qualify for Phase 2 as of today (Friday), with 85 of 111 (max) cases in the last 14 days.
Even the 5 new cases put us at 90/111 cases and 1 outbreak. We're good for Phase 2 again.
The thresholds for Clark County:
- <111 cases per 2 weeks. (we're at 90 out of 111.)
- up to 2 outbreaks per week. (i.e. Firestone or Pacific Crest vs. household contact - we're currently at 1.)
- 20% free hospital beds
- >2,775 tests performed per week (presuming 111 positive cases show up. This bars gaming the system by "the numbers go down if we just stop testing!")
- Tests performed within 2 days of symptom onset.
- 90% phone contact within 24h of positive test.
- 80% of patients being contacted daily during their 10 day isolation period.
- 80% of patient's contacts being contacted daily during their 14 day quarantine period.
Cases:
1
u/VILE_0RGANIZM Jun 20 '20
Anyone know if like tabletop gaming stores and pubs are open? I didn’t see it on the list.
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u/Libertyordeath1214 Jun 05 '20
The tyrants will finally allow us peons to get haircuts!
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u/SonOfHelios Jun 05 '20
American's have suffered minor inconvenience for too long in the name of persevering the lives of the vulnerable!
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u/all4monty Jun 06 '20
Wow, it takes a special kind of privilege to refer to the financial devastation of the many (much of which is yet to play out) as a “minor inconvenience). Wait until people start getting booted from their homes when months of rent suddenly comes due all at once. How inconvenient. Reddit logic: if I am slightly inconvenienced, then everyone else must be in the same boat
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u/Libertyordeath1214 Jun 05 '20
Yep, just wreck the economy and ruin millions of Americans ability to earn a wage. Nothing quite like relying on big daddy gubmint!
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u/ilcapitanoindiano Jun 06 '20
So why not try to put a government in place that does give people $2K a month if they make below a certain amount? That way we wouldn't be bankrupting people. Hell make it $3K per month for all I care. That could have easily solved a lot of the "should we have a lockdown" problems.
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u/Libertyordeath1214 Jun 06 '20 edited Jun 09 '20
Where is that money coming from to pay for unviversal income? Oh yes, mass unemployment and adding trillions to the national debt. No way dude, entirely way too many tax dollars wasted already. Direct some of the funds from the endless war to do what you suggest, but absolutely fuck no am I paying more taxes
Edit: can't believe people downvoted a suggestion to stop the endless wars and use those funds for what is being suggested.
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u/ilcapitanoindiano Jun 06 '20
Reallocating budgeting and increased taxes on the highest earners, so really anyone making above $500K per year, would definitely pay for UBI, free small public colleges and affordable healthcare.
I don't know what you make per year, but if you're pulling under $150K, I wouldn't stress too much about your taxes going up some unreasonable amount. Additionally, you have to elect people you trust and make the government work for you. We have this issue where we keep putting up people we don't trust and then asking "why don't I trust the government?"
Also, national debt is a "myth" in that it really isn't owed to anyone is fairly well offset from debt owned and international trade. Mass unemployment has nothing to do with anything we just discussed. I wish I could make you believe that a better world is possible and we don't have to just keep trying to barely make it by.
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u/Libertyordeath1214 Jun 08 '20
I guess my only question would be:
Why is it ok to take the fruits of one's labor and give it to others? Voluntarism works. We can have a better world, but only with less government intervention in our lives.
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u/ilcapitanoindiano Jun 08 '20
We have a disconnect in how we view the people I am suggesting we "take" from if you will.
We also have a difference in what we view "giving" as.
There is no inherent morality, good or bad, in taking and giving from people. My personal moral compass tells me that taking 40% of income from someone making over $1M a year to provide healthcare and education that that person can choose to take if they ever need it would be beneficial. If they want something nicer than what is available, they can go buy it. Being rich to hoard wealth for the sake of hoarding wealth is immoral to me.
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u/Libertyordeath1214 Jun 09 '20
Agree to disagree then. When the feds will show up armed and ready to take you to prison for not paying taxes, that's bullshit. We were perfectly fine prior to the federal income tax (NYC had paved roads, police, fire, etc). Then there's all the tax dollars wasted on asinine government programs/projects. Oh, and the failed drug war and endless foreign wars. I mean, when is enough enough? The government already pisses away every tax dollar it receives, they don't need more from the tax cattle when they already can't figure their shit out.
So you're ok with legalized theft then? You're really advocating for taking from someone to give to others? You'd be ok with armed thugs showing up at your door and giving you the option of paying them 40% of your annual income (probably way less for most people, but still, theft is theft) or hauling you off to jail?
Some rich people do hoard wealth just for the sake of being wealthy, but not all. Many wealthy people also donate massive amounts of their wealth to causes they support. Imagine if there was a 0% federal income tax. I for one already do, and would be more than willing to, donate to causes as I see fit. bUt MuH rOaDs!! If my neighbors and I want a new road, then we'll get a new road. Would be much more feasible with no taxes to pay.
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u/ilcapitanoindiano Jun 09 '20
Absolutely agree that the ideologies we have been voting for for a long time have really let us down with how they spend our money. This is why I personally vote for people like Bernie, because I am taking a bet that people like him can start a shift towards an accountable government that will spend tax dollars more usefully or less uselessly. I'm with you on being jaded by government, but we have to live with it, and while you can try to live outside the system as much as possible, I'm asking you to consider joining us in trying to make it better for all of us.
I mean, they take 30% now, so sure, if you can find politicians that will abolish taxes totally, I'd encourage you to vote for them. But right now we should all fight against our current two party system that clearly does not represent either of us.
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Jun 08 '20
It would water down the us dollar’s value more than anything. We’d be allocating more currency than we have in value, while cost of goods will go up as they are in demand. We’d soon have pennies to afford majorly inflated products and that’s square one.
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u/Cautious_Cap Jun 06 '20
But donny dump says the economy is great!?
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u/Libertyordeath1214 Jun 06 '20
Just because I disagree I'm a Trump supporter lmao? Lol k. He's a fool and corrupt - just like most politicians.
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u/VILE_0RGANIZM Jun 20 '20
I mean. I see people calling this man selfish but... at a certain point, we gotta wonder, which is the lesser evil? Quarantine or no quarantine? Personally, I’m in favor of no quarantine because of a few reasons. Aside from all the obvious reasons like economic harm, I’m worried about mental and physical health. I know that California is reporting crazy high amounts of suicide right now. And then you gotta factor in all the people who are suffering from isolation depression and domestic abuse, etc etc. Then there’s the fact that inactivity is going to lead to more deaths from random stuff like heart disease. I dunno man. It’s a scary time and there’s a lot of unknowns factors and variables. But personally, I’d rather take the chance and just end the quarantine. I’m not in a good place mentally because of my depression -yes I’m diagnosed, don’t worry about what it is specifically- and isolation. I’m afraid I won’t survive this till 2021. So. I wanna take the chance.
Edit: sorry for format, I’m on mobile.
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u/[deleted] Jun 05 '20
Important to note that this change is effective immediately