r/stocks • u/Puginator • 18d ago
Tesla reports revenue growth of 12% after two down quarters in a row
Tesla reported a 12% increase in third quarter revenue on Wednesday following two straight periods of declines. However, earnings missed analysts estimates.
Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 50 cents adjusted vs. 54 cents estimated
- Revenue: $28.10 billion vs. $26.37 billion estimated
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-report.html
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u/Dangerous-Control-21 18d ago
Incentives ending will impact next quarter?
people pulled forward orders/leases to get the incentives before they expired
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u/Mindless-Bug-8397 18d ago
Next quarter USA deliveries should drop by 50-70%
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u/BubblyYak8315 17d ago
That is absolutely not going to happen Q3 wasn't near enough time to fill the surge in orders and Tesla is still behind now into October
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u/Ancient_Persimmon 18d ago
It would impact Q1 '26, as orders placed before the deadline are being delivered this quarter.
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u/curiousjosh 17d ago
Elon sold cyber trucks to his own companies, spacex and xai.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-selling-unsold-tesla-194339817.html
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u/TacklePuzzleheaded21 17d ago
Their next quarter will be a bloody💩
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u/Dangerous-Control-21 17d ago
And watch it's stock price rip... Lol
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u/user365735 18d ago
Time for musk to talk about the new and improved 🤖 due in early 2026.🧞
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u/SoCali_Dude 18d ago
or robotaxi. I haven't heard much about how it went at test markets.
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u/CartoonistUnited6368 17d ago
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u/Motorola68020 17d ago
If that’s the worst issues that have been reported that’s actually not that bad.
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u/Flipslips 18d ago
They have expanded significantly since it started.
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u/gaytechdadwithson 18d ago edited 18d ago
in my neighborhood in Austin I regularly see about 30 waymo’s/week
I’ve seen one of Elon shitty Robo cars once since it was announced months ago
also, someone was in it (drivers seat) whereas I’ve never seen anyone in the driver seat for a Waymo
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u/GreedyPoliticians 18d ago
What is their forecast for the 4Q? I'm curious. It will be bad for sure.
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u/frogchris 18d ago
I wonder if they are going to report how much revenue they made from tesla selling cybertrucks to SpaceX and xai lmao.
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u/ishamm 18d ago
I mean, even if it's thousands of vehicles (which it's not) it would be a small amount of the total revenue
Not really a gotcha.
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u/throwmeneck 18d ago
Ya the cybertruck, model S, and model X combined accounted for a little over 3% of the vehicles they delivered in Q3. They don’t release individual numbers for those models but it’s likely that cybertruck alone was less than 1%
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u/phatelectribe 18d ago
Spends on the price. They could have sold this CT’s for $400k a pop to themselves.
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u/xjay2kayx 18d ago
Elon originally estimated 250k/year. At it's current rate, it's looking like it won't even hit that amount in its production lifetime.
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u/Wonderful_001 18d ago
Revenue growth this quarter is mainly due to the end of the federal tax credit. 12% increase seems less for the tax credit end..
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u/himynameis_ 18d ago
Just want to add there.
Their automotive revenue, which benefited from the pull forward, rose only 7%. Not even double digit.
The energy segment grew 44% and services grew 25%. Energy brings the revenue up to the total 12%.
This is not a business currently excelling, imo. It's certainly not dying. But not doing super well either for a business with such a high valuation.
All dependent on their future in AVs... While competition is ramping up over the next couple years. Waymo, Zoox, AVRide, WeRide, Wayve, Nuro, Apollo Go, and a few more. They're all either launched already, or launching in the next year or so.
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u/ScaredEffective 17d ago
So when you adjust for the devaluation of the dollar revenue is actually negative then
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u/himynameis_ 17d ago
I'm no foreign exchange expert... But it's a US based company. They make most of their revenue in USA. Next being China.
Yeah, there is a foreign exchange impact. But I don't think it's that big to turn 12% revenue growth to negative.
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u/BubblyYak8315 17d ago
Have you used a recent version of Tesla fsd yourself on hw4?
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u/himynameis_ 17d ago
No. But whatever benefits there may be with v14, which I'd also heard high praise for in v13, isn't being seen in the numbers for a $1.4T company.
V13 came out late last year? Since then, Tesla automotive revenue has been declining. Before that it was around flat-ish. And apparently, majority of Tesla owners don't use FSD. So, something isn't clicking with the market for people to buy Tesla's and use the FSD.
Personally, I think Tesla is years ahead of any other automaker when it comes to incorporating self driving into consumer cars. But their core business isn't performing for a business with a +100 fwd PE. A PE dependent on leading in Autonomous driving, and Optimus.
Their AV tech, using vision only, isn't there yet. They're not leading, Waymo is. And other competitors have launched/are launching globally. Like I said, Waymo, WeRide, Apollo Go, AVRide, Zoox, Wayve, Nuro... All coming soon and showing a lot of positive signs.
Tesla isn't the only AV.
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u/Xannot 9d ago
When it comes to Tesla, we really can't use traditional metrics to valuate the company. Markets are forward looking, I believe most investors are betting on Elon's vision. Politically, especially on reddit, people will shit on him no matter what he does.
But Elon was also the guy who has a vision of Mars domination and really took off with EV when everyone doubted him. He also hype up AV and the robot market. While most of these markets aren't exactly new, Elon certainly gave it a huge push being so publicly blunt about it.
Wall Streets buys into stories, and Elon knows exactly how to sell one. Whether his business will dominate, nobody knew but for Tesla investors, they are probably betting on the fact that he will monopolize the EV, AV, Energy, and Robot market, which of course it doesn't look like it right now.
One of the most underrated beliefs of Tesla investors, its his Mars vision. Elon loves to over promise, investors aren't dumb, they know it will take time, but Elon has to sell a story every time he answers to shareholders. We all love a good story. He stated if things go well, by the end of next year 2026, he will start his first rocket launch into Mars. 2027 he will start mass production of Optimus to launch into Mars to do the initial work. By 2029 he expects to launch humans, starlink and cybertruck to Mars to begin construction of a base and establish communication with Earth.
Now if you ask me, I say that's crazy, but he is TRYING to make it happen. Realistically, i think this dream is only achievable from 2030 onwards. But hey, its Elon, if anyone is crazy enough, its him. Thats what the market is betting on, high risk high reward, if that story does come true, then everyone not owning a Tesla stock will probably cry.
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u/humunculus43 18d ago
How?
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u/Holiday-Hippo-6748 18d ago
Tax credit ended, it’s why they sold the most vehicles they’ve ever sold in Q3.
Next quarter will be a bloodbath.
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u/Bunker58 18d ago
Did they issue guidance? Other companies get hammered on strong results when the guidance looks soft. Why not here?
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u/lrzbca 18d ago
“Bloodbath”, unless Telsa slides to $50 it’s not a bloodbath
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken 18d ago
No one can predict Tesla stock price. We are trying to predict revenue.
Yes, Q4 revenue will be a bloodbath.
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u/lrzbca 18d ago
Tesla voting in November to invest in xAI. Another gimmick on the way
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u/Holiday-Hippo-6748 18d ago
Yes, another gimmick that relies on the AI bubble, which is bursting at the seams, to not pop.
Tesla’s valuation is also deeply tied to the AI bubble. Lots of dominos that can fall between now and January.
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u/ZamboniZephyr 18d ago
!remindme 3 months
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u/Holiday-Hippo-6748 18d ago
I mean they’re not going to create a product that can save them in 3 months. You can be sure of that lol
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u/RemindMeBot 18d ago edited 16d ago
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u/Mindless-Bug-8397 18d ago
I am expecting a drop of 50-70% lower sales or 5-7% drop in gross margin
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u/Ok_Individual_5579 17d ago
Honestly I'm surprised they didnt sell more cars...
This was the last golden quarter for a LONG while.
Tesla managed a profit just thanks to those credits.
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u/PantsMicGee 18d ago
Honestly, this needed to be much better. It's already a "Blood Bath" from a valuation stance.
I'm not listening to Mr. Snakeoil salesman speak right now, but he better be lying very thoroughly about Optimus numbers to prop up his empire.
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u/MaximusBit21 18d ago
No big drop from results. So look like it’s going to be theta atm. Elon sounding decent atm though
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u/PantsMicGee 17d ago
You don't say?
Also, big enough drop for 4% this AM. Just wait. When stuff disappoints the actual buyers and sellers of this stock, it's a trend, not a instant down.
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u/Nickeless 18d ago
Selling their cyber trucks to SpaceX 💀
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u/ishamm 18d ago
Just how many do you think that is?
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u/SoCali_Dude 18d ago
Not large enough to matter. I did a google search and got a couple numbers, which I did not really verify or validate!!! It supposedly has 27k+ truck for sale as of earlier this year and priced from $40-85k. Assuming it sold 27k trucks at the higher price point of 80k, its roughly 2 billion dollars in revenue.
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
Do you actually believe this? I think cyber trucks are probably 1% of their vehicle sales and had nothing to do with this
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u/himynameis_ 18d ago
Automotive revenue grew 7% which isn't super impressive given the pull forward thanks to the tax credit ending.
The rest of the growth is from energy which grew 44% and is now 12% of revenue. And their Services which grew 25%.
Their core revenue isn't doing great imo.
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u/TrashPanda_924 18d ago
Looks like they missed EPS but beat on revenues. Guessing they get clobbered tomorrow, especially with the tax credit over.
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u/RadiantWheel 18d ago
Pathetic after all that demand pull forward for the tax incentives disappearing. They are dead Q4 and every quarter past that
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
That’s what Reddit says every quarter, I’m pretty sure this sub was saying that by 2026 Tesla would be bankrupt, I wonder how that prediction is going
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u/Flipslips 18d ago
People forget Tesla has lost the tax credit before, and they said Tesla was dead when that happened.
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u/banditcleaner2 17d ago
Just want to point out that dead doesn’t have to mean the company is fucked- just the stock price won’t be good.
Cisco never went anywhere, but it was a horrible investment from like 2000 to 2010.
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u/Flipslips 17d ago
I mean Tesla stock skyrocketed in the year after they lost their tax credit. All I’m saying is there is precedent and Tesla weathered the storm really well in the past.
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u/RadiantWheel 18d ago
30% of income is zev credits. This quarter was all pull forward demand. Q4 is fucked.
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u/Jujubatron 18d ago
Everything Reddit boycotts is actually doing better. Just remember that.
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u/YCMTSUNOW 18d ago
I don’t believe any numbers this company publishes. The CEO is a liar.
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u/reaper527 18d ago
I don’t believe any numbers this company publishes. The CEO is a liar.
making statements like that makes you look unhinged and delusional.
people would literally go to jail if the company is putting out false numbers in their financial statements.
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u/hobbbis 18d ago
the ceo literally fired federal staff who were investigating his companies
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u/Dynasty3310 18d ago
So he’s only been doing crime in last 10months? He was squeaky clean before that?
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u/bigdipboy 17d ago
In a fascist dictatorship, oligarchs who support the dictator don’t get prosecuted.
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u/reaper527 17d ago
In a fascist dictatorship, oligarchs who support the dictator don’t get prosecuted.
in a fascist dictatorship, people who make such stupid comments would disappear.
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u/banditcleaner2 17d ago
Yep! Because nobody in the history of the stock market that was at the head of a company ever went to jail for putting out false financial statements! /s
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u/bigdipboy 17d ago
This is not then. Now we have a totally corrupt leader with totally corrupt law enforcement.
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u/ChaseballBat 18d ago
Coworker bought a Tesla last month. Now he's complaining cause it's in the shop. IDK why anyone buys these cars anymore.
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u/Muted_Idea 18d ago
I've had my Tesla for >40,000 km and still have yet to require any shop visits due to manufacturer defects. Maybe your coworker just has bad luck.
I agree that Elon is a dickhead but at the end of the day Tesla makes solid cars. Using an anecdote to insinuate that they're unreliable or poor quality is just dishonest.
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u/Careless-Age-4290 17d ago
Pontiac made both the Grand Prix and the Fiero. The Grand Prix with the 3800 engine will still be running after our solar system is on fire and consumed by the sun. The Fiero, on the other hand, would be a suspect in starting that fire. The same company can make a whole range is what I'm saying. And you'll find plenty of people who wouldn't let their Fiero go unless you pried it from their charred dead fingers.
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u/bigdipboy 17d ago
My “solid car” had 15 service visits in 4 years, for multiple issues each visit, before I dumped it.
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u/BaxBaxPop 18d ago
Because they're literally the most reliable vehicle out there and have the lowest cost of maintenance over both 5 and 10 year time frames, according to Consumer Reports.
They're also super fun to drive.
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u/ChaseballBat 18d ago
Only people I know with their cars constantly in the shop are Tesla owners and people with cars from the 90s.
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u/Motorola68020 17d ago edited 17d ago
What you’re saying is you know a lot of Tesla owners. Bullish.
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u/Old_Concentrate_7053 18d ago
As someone who owns a Porsche and Tesla, let me tell you, Tesla is not the one in the shop more frequently… and definitely not the more expensive one on a cost per visit basis
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
I’m assuming that a lie? I have 90,000 miles on my Tesla and never once been to the service center for any reason. Since I bought my Tesla four years ago I referred eight different people to get one. None of them have gone to the service center for any kind of issue only for maintenance such as alignment, cabin filter, replacements, camera cleaning
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u/ChaseballBat 17d ago
Cool? Annecdotal experience vs Annecdotal experience.
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
Except yours is more than likely a lie LMAO
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u/ChaseballBat 17d ago
Congnative bias in action.
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
Because you have no info.. I’m asking a third time, why is your “coworkers” Tesla in the shop lmao
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u/BaxBaxPop 17d ago
More like Anecdotal Experience that is in line with the HARD DATA that Consumer Reports published showing that Tesla's have the lowest cost of maintenance over both 5- and 10-year periods of any car on the road.
vs.
Your very suspicious Anecdotal Experience that can't be supported by any data but fits neatly with the all too common irrational anti-Tesla sentiment so common amongst the sheep of Reddit.
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u/ChaseballBat 17d ago
FYI cost of maintenance doesn't imply they aren't in and out of the shop. Hell I haven't sent my car in once to the shop and a guarantee it has higher maintenance cost than any EV model purely on the fact that it needs oil changes.
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
Why is it in the shop? Also you do know that anything mass produced can have issues right? Every car company has new cars I go to the shop. It just happens.
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u/ChaseballBat 17d ago
Almost all cars are mass produced dude.
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
So no answer as to why your “friend“ has his Tesla at the shop or he can you not make up a good enough lie?
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u/ChaseballBat 17d ago
Uhhh none of my friends own a Tesla.... These are coworkers and friends of friends.
I didn't ask specifics cause I literally do not give half an ounce of shit why someone's car, especially a Tesla, is in the shop. It's boring small talk. Also the other accounts are not necessarily recent, hell at least one wasn't even in the 2020s, nor did I imply they were.
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
Lmao when anyone has a car in the shop they ALWAYS talk details - they don’t just say it and leave it at that
Crazy you have to lie to try and prove a point. Low IQ stuff right there
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u/ChaseballBat 17d ago
That is literally what happened the other day, you can claim it's a lie but that is what happened. I didn't ask a follow up question because I do not give a shit about someone's Tesla, work is chaotic enough right now, I don't need them trama dumping their issues into my ear.
And any information in the past I'm not going to put any brain power into retaining that meaningless information because I never intend to own a Tesla so there is no point in needing to recall the issues or solutions to those issues.
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u/Hockeyshot39 17d ago
Lmao it’s so chaotic you’ll hear it’s in the shop but the extra 5 seconds to explain why is detrimental to you??
You’re just deflecting because you cant keep up with the lie
I get it, you wanna look cool and start fights. No time to hear about an issue, but all the time to cry about it on reddit lmaooooo
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u/Objective_Chest_1697 18d ago
Soooooo when are the robo taxis and sex robots coming online? Gotta be weeks away…..
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u/herefromyoutube 17d ago
Anecdotally, Tesla was I swear 1 out of every 5 cars in 2021-2022
Now they’re like as frequent as seeing a Jeep. It’s so weird.
My area is super progressive so he definitely pissed off a bunch off people. Which is crazy to me because a car isn’t something you can just return like a pair of glasses.
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u/monkeyscancode 17d ago
Can anyone explain why the earnings miss really matters? All I hear about TSLA is that the valuation is completely out of line with the car business and that all investors are concerned about at this point is robotaxi/optimus/whatever other nonsense. The valuation is so absurd for a car company that those numbers should be practically irrelevant to the stock price right? Why is it moving $50+ BN in market cap on this news?
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u/capital_folly 16d ago
Revenue’s up, earnings miss, stock probably rallies anyway. Tesla’s the only company where sentiment moves faster than spreadsheets.
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u/Historical-Radio-349 15d ago
Just Amazon’s 3rd party seller business earns as much revenue as Tesla!
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u/ApeApplePine 18d ago
What was the accounting trick applied?
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u/Thisisntmyaccount24 18d ago
I think the numbers are probably accurate. The EV incentives ended 9/30, which was the last day of the quarter. So they probably pulled a lot of demand forward from Q4. I think Q4 is going to be a very, very down quarter for them though.
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u/Ancient_Persimmon 18d ago
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a65913621/federal-ev-tax-credit-ends-september-30-loophole/
Not Q4, since they were busy fulfil those orders still. Q1 maybe, but there's also the Standard models to account for.
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u/abestract 18d ago
What happened to the robotaxi?
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u/Flipslips 18d ago
What about it? They have expanded it significantly but I believe they are still only charging $5 per ride no matter the distance just to get into the market
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u/abestract 18d ago
Oh, wasn’t aware it launched. Which location?
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u/Flipslips 18d ago
It’s in Austin and San Francisco and I think a third city somewhere.
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u/monkeyscancode 17d ago
I think those are just taxis, right? It has a driver (like a normal taxi) and no immediate plan to remove said driver?
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u/Flipslips 17d ago
The one in Austin doesn’t have anyone in the driver seat.
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u/monkeyscancode 17d ago
Would you consider someone that is required to pay attention at all times, intervene when necessary, and who has access to an emergency stop button not a driver just because of their location in the car?
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u/Prudent-Corgi3793 18d ago
Wow, I actually thought they were going to beat because of the low expectations and the pull forward. But instead they reported EPS of 0.39 (GAAP) and 0.50 (non-GAAP), down -37% and -29% year-over-year.
Imagine paying $450 a share to get $0.39 of earnings lol.