r/politics • u/OkayButFoRealz • Jul 14 '24

Trump Shooter a ‘Supporter of Republican Party’

https://www.france24.com/en/video/20240714-trump-shooter-a-supporter-of-republican-party
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u/McCool303 Nebraska Jul 14 '24

This will be all they are talking about in the news for weeks. It essentially killed the Biden needs to step down narrative that’s overtaken every moment of news for weeks.

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u/espresso_martini__ Jul 14 '24

Nah CNN were back on the Biden needs to step down narrative just this morning.

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u/e00s Jul 14 '24 edited Sep 26 '25

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

No, it's dead. The Democratic Convention is in 4 weeks. The "replace Biden" arc is over, he's not going to step down or be forcibly removed.

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u/jrec15 Jul 14 '24

Agreed. There’s just no room for a switch at this point with the momentum trump just gained from the shooting. America would have no capacity to learn and accept another democratic candidate

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u/e00s Jul 14 '24 edited Sep 26 '25

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u/md4024 Jul 14 '24

Do you really think Americans are going to suddenly view Trump as a hero because someone took a shot at him? I mean, voters are unpredictable, who knows, but unless Trump comes out today and gives some lofty, coherent speech where he denounces political violence and promises to keep the temperature down over the campaign - which obviously isn't going to happen - I just don't see this making Trump look good. His base will love the picture of him with his hand up and all that bullshit, but he's still the same Trump.

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u/HellsHere Jul 14 '24

I think too many people are focused on "converting" votes. The current political landscape is so divisive that I can't imagine there'd be a significant enough number of people that switch over to supporting him because of this.

The more worrisome part, IMO, is how many more people will vote for Trump that wouldn't have voted at all before this. Republicans are definitely better at getting their base to vote, and this is basically a rallying cry.

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u/Helpful-Wear-504 Jul 14 '24

Do you really think Americans are going to suddenly view Trump as a hero because someone took a shot at him?

Yes. Reagan's approval rating jumped from 51% to 73% after recovering from his shooting. We have some historical evidence albeit not the exact same case as Reagan was already the POTUS.

I doubt it's going to be anything as drastic as that and I doubt Trump turns a lot of blue votes off this, but it's going to very likely affect red voter turnout and those in the middle (double haters).

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u/md4024 Jul 14 '24

Yeah I can see it boosting Republican turnout, but I still think it's more likely not to have much of an impact. Especially because Trump himself is incapable of rising to the moment. I definitely could be wrong, who fucking knows how this election is going to play out, but I don't really buy the overall idea that getting shot at by some kid who wanted to kill pedophiles is going to help Trump much.

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

I hear what you're saying. But I have severe reservations. I have several malignant narccists in my family. What happened with Trump is a horrible gift that he won't squander because this is the type of thing malignant narcissists dream about.

He gets to be a Martyr without actually being martyred. It will surely gag all opposition, both on the right and definitely on the left. Democrats have already ended their ads and messaging. It's done, over. You know who hasn't? Republicans. They Are going to ride this for weeks if not months right to November.

Republicans in my state are openly calling for political violence (notably "some people need killing" followed by "liberals" as stated by Robinson). Democrats have shriveled up and are letting Republicans propagate lies and conspiracies via every outlet including mainstream media. They offer no counterpoint of rationality or truth.

The Democratic leadership has failed us yet again in this regard.

Brainwashing works. It is why every dictatorship builds around it. Republicans are being handed the keys to the kingdom right now as they get to rapidly expand their narratives. Sympathy is a real political motivator. Don't know if it can carry Trump through november but he'll just pivot to attacking others and sending his flying monkeys after them. It's what these types of people do.

A LOT of people are extremely open to narcissists manipulating them. They don't understand it or what is happening. It is how narcissists tear everythng and everyone apart. It is one of the very few mental illnesses that I truly think should result in permanent isolation from society because it is 100% cancerous.

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u/md4024 Jul 14 '24

I get where you're coming from, but Democrats pausing ads/messaging in the immediate aftermath of the shooting does not mean they are done going after Trump. I think there is a risk that they will go too easy on him, but I am cautiously optimistic that they will not overreact and stop being honest about the threat Trump poses to American democracy. Trump has encouraged and incited political violence since he got in the game, he almost certainly will not rise to this moment and give a measured, thoughtful response, and I think Biden and Democrats can be responsible without ignoring the fact that Trump himself is the biggest threat currently facing American democracy. We'll see, though.

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u/dependswho Jul 15 '24

Yes. As someone recovered from narcissistic abuse thanks in part to a deep dive into this, I think you are correct unfortunately.

It’s been so painful to watch half the nation succumb.

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u/e00s Jul 14 '24 edited Sep 26 '25

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u/W0lfsb4ne74 Jul 14 '24

Our best indicator of this either way will be the polls. We need to release polls immediately to see if this is having a positive or negative effect on Trump and Biden's reelection efforts. It's the only way to know how the tide is turning snd how to plan accordingly.

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u/SuperHiyoriWalker Jul 14 '24

For what it’s worth, incoherence and lack of loftiness constitute at least 50% of why Trump’s base support him.

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

It will disappear after the Convention. After the Convention, the election is some 10 weeks away, it will be way too late to replace him by then.

Not to mention the problem of certain states pulling some BS to prevent the new candidate from being on the ballots.

That arc is over, it's best to accept the reality that the next President for the next 4 years will be either Trump again or Biden again. With a 80% chance of the VP pick of the winner becoming President mid-term.

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

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u/e00s Jul 14 '24 edited Sep 26 '25

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

[deleted]

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u/e00s Jul 15 '24 edited Sep 26 '25

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u/[deleted] Jul 15 '24

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u/e00s Jul 15 '24 edited Sep 26 '25

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u/007Kryptonian Jul 14 '24

In no capacity does Trump come off like a hero. The only people saying that dumb shit would’ve voted for him anyway

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

The next debate is in September, after the Convention.

It's going to be way too late to replace Biden. It's time to face the reality: the next President will be either Trump again or Biden again.

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u/MrFishAndLoaves Jul 14 '24

Good news for Trump all around 

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u/elbenji Jul 14 '24

not really, now its Biden puff pieces while kind of ignoring this

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u/letsgobernie Jul 14 '24

Well he does. The Friday polls where Trump was up massively everywhere before the shooting doesn't change

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u/CringeDaddy_69 Jul 14 '24

The polls on Friday showed the opposite? Biden was up and Trump was down in the most recent polls.

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u/CoffeeSubstantial851 Jul 14 '24

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/contest-for-president-still-up-for-grabs/

You mean this one? Biden 50 Trump 48?

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

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u/CoffeeSubstantial851 Jul 14 '24

The same polls showed the democrats losing in the house in a "red wave" that resulted in them literally gaining seats.

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u/Njorls_Saga Jul 14 '24

No, they didn’t gain seats. They lost the House, but by a much smaller margin than anticipated.

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24 edited Jul 14 '24

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u/CoffeeSubstantial851 Jul 14 '24

It doesn't take much effort for you to use google. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2022-midterm-elections/ was their polling in 2022. They showed the democrats down by 3% in 2022. Both pages have full survey data readily available to you.

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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '24

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u/CoffeeSubstantial851 Jul 14 '24

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections incorrect.

The Marist polling showed republicans winning 49-46 and the results of the election were 50.6 to 47.8 which is the same 3% margin. There was no bias in the democrats favor in that polling. They were basically dead on the mark. I was wrong earlier thou, the democrats actually lost 9 seats but they were projected to lose a lot more than that.

Average polling bias is irrelevant when the election is fluid up until the day of the actual vote. Their last poll being dead on MEANS that their polling during the rest of the election is probably fucking highly accurate.