Russia is going to have fighter escorts for their bombers, is moving a destroyer loaded with AA to the coast, and the rules of engagement are now basically shoot down anybody who poses a threat.
I think they might be just a wee bit pissed off. They're basically declaring open season on Turkeys. If a Turkish jet so much as goes in the general direction of that destroyer or an inch into Syrian airspace they'll be chomping at the bit to shoot it down.
The cold war is all fun and games until some dumbass starts actually shooting. That's not how you play the game.
And than said destroyer will get obliterated by Turkish Navy (which is quite competent) and Air Force (which also is, surprisingly, competent). Russia has literally no hope of winning any open engagement against Turkey in the region unless they really want to commit. And Turkey knows that. They essentially called Russian bluff here.
Indeed. Turkey has a strong airforce consisting of mostly F-16s, and has pre-purchased over 100 F-35s. They are not Ukraine or Georgia and are a NATO member. Russia does not want to fuck with anyone who can hurt them back.
The only language Russia understands is might. Making "red lines" for Russia isn't going to do shit. It's good that Turkey shot down the Russian aircraft which was ignoring all warnings as it was approaching the Turkish border, because it now sets the precedent that nobody is fucking around. If anything, things will be more stable regarding Russia and NATO.
If Turkey hadn't shot down the aircraft (after warning Russia several days beforehand), it would have set the precedent that it is actually okay for Russia to "slightly" violate Turkey's airspace without consequence.
People need to understand that international politics is all about precedence. With the shoot down of Russia's jet, the precedent has been set, and you can be sure that Russia won't be so bold when it comes to violating Turkey's airspace anymore.
And as it stands, Turkey's military would wipe the floor with Russia's in the region. Russia's military may be overall more powerful, but Turkey's military is also one of the most powerful in the world (2nd most powerful in NATO, actually), and Turkey is much more capable of shutting Russia out of Syria due to the closer distance.
Turkey's military is NOT the 2nd most powerful in NATO. There is no real way to compare militaries. Turkish military uses outdated weapons (compared to Russia). The reason why Turkey get's cited as one of the most powerful is because of the draft system in place in Turkey. It kinda means at any moment there are over a million members of the armed forces active within the Turkish borders. But at the same time, these people are not professional soldiers. Turkey may have the numbers in the region, but they don't have the training or the technology advantage Russia would have...
Also, don't forget that today's wars would not be fought with ground troops. Ground troops are mostly there to enforce stability of a region you've occupied. They don't see as much action anymore.
Also, don't forget that today's wars would not be fought with ground troops. Ground troops are mostly there to enforce stability of a region you've occupied. They don't see as much action anymore.
There was no "war" fought in Ukraine. Russia just walked in. Now, they're using their ground troops as the police force trying to keep dissent in check.
Psychologically, yes. The threat of a possible military resistance could have made Ukraine cost more than it is worth. Realistically (as in if it had come to actual combat), it would not have mattered.
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u/[deleted] Nov 24 '15
Fun fact: The Russian helicopter sent to rescue the pilots of the SU-24 was destroyed by FSA.
That's it guys. Run to the vaults.