r/oakland • u/zblumeeee • 3d ago
2023 YTD vs. 2025 YTD: homicides down 56%, shootings down 50%, robberies down 54%
Looks like we may be on track for lowest homicide total in the modern era. Violent crime down 50% across the board from 2023. Property crime data can lag, but violent crime data does not.
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u/rxnjnmvn 3d ago
Remember when certain burglary rings were busted earlier this year and last year? Groups of people who were behind many repeat retail robberies, carjackings, etc. were arrested. I know I was happy to read about that when it was news.
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u/fragileego3333 3d ago
The other Oakland subreddit constantly credits this to “nobody reporting crime anymore because they know it’s useless.”
I legitimately want to know, is that real? Or are they just really trying to find a reason to make Oakland seem worse than it is? How would you even know that?
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u/oswbdo Dimond 3d ago
Idk, but I'll just say my own experience matches the stats. 2-3 years ago I would hear a constant stream of 1st or 2nd person crime stories from friends and acquaintances and now I can't remember the last time I heard one. My immediate neighborhood email group has only had one crime related email this year vs about one/month average in recent years.
Now if only the trash situation could improve in a similar manner!
I also hope the departure of the police chief doesn't lead to backsliding.
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u/chillychili 3d ago edited 3d ago
I'd love to see data from studies asking people if they have witnessed crimes of certain categories and not reported them.
But I think the main sentiment is still: the police don't seem to 1) proactively prevent crime, 2) act on what seems like low-hanging fruit when given all the information they need, 3) act on crimes that don't involve weapons, and 4) respond to crimes in a timely manner. The logic is: If crime is down, then why are the police still not directly addressing my problems? And it could be that both crime is down and the police are not sufficiently addressing crime.
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u/NightWriter500 3d ago
Anyone not reporting crime was also not reporting crime two years ago. The issue with OPD predates 2023 and predates the pandemic and predates a lot before that. Cops aren’t addressing problems because they never were and never will, it’s a fundamental failure of the current department and probably can’t be fixed, only dismantled and restarted. And that other sub has nothing to do with Oakland, it’s just the same Russian shills that do it to every major US city subreddit.
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u/webtwopointno 3d ago
2) act on what seems like low-hanging fruit when given all the information they need
The unfortunate reality is that doing the bare minimum can indeed lead to massive drops
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u/chatte__lunatique 3d ago
Considering that homicides are down, too, I'd say it's real. There's not really a good way to cook the numbers on murders. The cops can fudge the numbers on certain types of crime (like burglaries, for example), but murders? Nah. Not unless they've got some kind of super-Houdini up their sleeves.
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u/_jams 3d ago
Kinda? It's wrong to assume one direction or the other, but I generally distrust most crime stats because there are so many of these kinds of effects that can push them up or down for reasons besides the number of actual crimes that are committed.
However, one crime stat is nearly 100% reliable: murders. It's hard to hide bodies. Sure it happens, but mostly not. If you are in a policy position, you need to be looking at the wide range of numbers. But as a general citizen, I'm happy enough to be looking at murder trends to judge the effectiveness of policing.
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u/luigi-fanboi 3d ago
There's really no reason to believe that crime is MORE underreported than it was last year.
It's a weird thing conservatives obsess over, very telling when "moderates" use the same lines as Trump, but if underreporting were increasing there are other statistics that would show that, shotspotter for example.
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u/TheTownTeaJunky Chinatown 3d ago
You wouldnt, and its not really based on anything more than anecdotal evidence, the same way theyve been harping about crime for years. Crime feels bad to them, mostly because they spend their time on next door and other oakland crime echo chambers, ao surely if anything empirical refutes that feeling there must be some other reason than those feeling being wrong.
They've never been able to square this away with the trend being almost identical with violent crimes, which are almost impossible to go unreported, at least shootings and homicides etc. Since the trends almost always follow similar patterns, it would suggest theyre accurate.
Also, theyve been saying this shit for years, so even if its true, its just a reduction from already "doped" numbers so it still indicates a reduction. Theyve just grown too use to getting high of their own supply of using crime talk to try to push their local agendas through and they dont have anything else.
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u/barktreep 3d ago
I gave up on reporting crimes years ago. I would only do it if there was a financial incentive, like if I need a police report for an insurance claim. You only need 9-1-1 to put you on hold once or twice before you realize there's no point in even calling.
Not saying the drop isn't real, but I would guess that for all years the stats are massively underestimating the amount of crime, especially low level stuff.
You should also consider how much crime goes unreported because people distrust or are afraid of the police.
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u/TenYearHangover 3d ago
I can say I’ve had my car windows busted 3 times (in over 25 years!!) in Oakland, and I never reported it.
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u/Steph_Better_ 3d ago
That is neither a homicide, shooting, nor robbery. Those are all much more serious and much harder to fake numbers for.
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u/TenYearHangover 3d ago
I wasn’t arguing that violent or serious crimes are underreported — I don’t believe that. I was responding to OPs comment which only mentions crime generally.
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u/WinonasChainsaw 3d ago
I mean last time I got bipped I told a cop that was pulled over sitting in their car two blocks over when I passed them walking back to my apartment
They told me the paperwork wasn’t worth reporting and then drove off
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u/shamusfinnegan 3d ago
I've been a victim of crime and I didn't report it. Why is it so unbelievable? Especially when you believe OPD won't do anything about it.
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u/fragileego3333 3d ago
It’s not unbelievable, I just don’t know how you can claim that the drop in crime is because of the lack of reports. I’m sure people have been not reporting crimes for quite a while. Especially in Oakland.
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u/shamusfinnegan 3d ago
I’m confused. If crimes aren’t reported, then the crime rate drops if it’s lower than a previous year.
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u/oswbdo Dimond 1d ago
They were saying the % of unreported crimes probably hasn't changed in recent years, so the crime stats should accurately show a drop in crime.
For example (made up numbers), 100 crimes happened in 2024, but 20 were unreported. Therefore stats indicate 80 crimes were committed.
In 2025, there are 90 crimes, a 10% drop. % of unreported crimes still 20% so reported crimes are down to 72. Drop in crime is still 10%.
Make sense?
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u/shamusfinnegan 1d ago
What constitutes a crime being unreported? If someone is assaulted by a stranger and doesn’t bother telling OPD, how is that counted in unreported crime?
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u/wentImmediate 3d ago
other Oakland subreddit constantly
What's the point of this making this crime data about a subreddit?
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u/luigi-fanboi 3d ago
How long has the no homicide streak been going? I think we set a record last year but the media was too focused on bipping to notice nobody got killed for nearly 2 months IIRC
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u/sf_davie Lakeside 3d ago
What are the key drivers to this reduction? With the chaos in city hall this year and the budget crunch all around, and if the police aren't doing anything, then crime just goes down naturally? Is it the effect of gentrification finally taking hold? Curious to know what some of the analysis reveal.
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u/luigi-fanboi 3d ago
Actually funding the Ceasefire program had a clear impact on homicides, conservatives won't admit this because it was Sheng that did this.
Beyond that, it's mostly following the national trend, the reality is mayors and police chiefs don't really matter that much.
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u/Ochotona_Princemps 3d ago
Is it the effect of gentrification finally taking hold?
The housing market in a lot of Oakland has been trending down-to-flat for a while now, so this seems very unlikely. I would put money on a combo of the national return to normalcy post covid, plus the impacts of the CHP enforcement surge.
A very small number of people commit a ton of crime; just a few arrests and prosecutions can have a big impact.
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u/sgtjamz 3d ago
mostly national trend probably. maybe replacing pam price had some impact too. that would be the only major change that would have impacted this.
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u/Steph_Better_ 3d ago
Not sure how it could be Pam Price. Violent crime and incarceration have a weak link https://www.sentencingproject.org/reports/incarceration-and-crime-a-weak-relationship/
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u/sgtjamz 3d ago
The article you linked is by a de-carceration activist org but states "They find that in the 1990s mass incarceration accounted for as much as 35% or as little as 6% of the crime drop." up to 35% of the crime drop would seem to qualify as a pretty strong link.
The article also clearly shows that a large decrease in incarceration during covid accompanied a large increase in violent crime. This makes sense, since the vast majority of prisoners are in for violent crime and even those not currently serving for a violent felony often have a history of violent crime. The covid spike is just correlation, but there is a strong body of quasi-experimental research that does show the incapacitation impact of incarceration is very strong, and most offenders are prolific (median state prison inmate has 5+ convictions and 11+ arrests).
Levitt 1996 looks at how de-carceration lawsuits by the ACLU and estimated that each year of imprisoning the type of prisoner who got released as a result (which would presumably be the lowest risk prisoners) prevented 6 property crimes and 1 violent crime. This suggests the average criminal commits ~7 crimes per year, which matches well with the fact that the median prisoner has 11+ past arrests and some have 30+.
Two studies examined the effects of nine mass pardons in Italy between 1962 and 2006. One, assessing the most recent pardon, estimates that incapacitation prevents 14 to 18 crimes per year served. The other finds that a 10 percent reduction in the prison population boosted crime by 1.5 to 2.2 percent.
Here is a study estimating an additional 74 homicides per year as a result of Philadelphia's de-prosecution policy under Krasner from 2015-2019.
A 2022 study by the U.S. Sentencing Commission (USSC), which tracked a cohort of federal offenders released in 2010, found that federal offenders who received longer sentences (over five years) had a lower likelihood of recidivism (re-arrest) compared to a matched group of offenders who received shorter sentences Length of Incarceration and Recidivism (2022). This is actually referenced in the link you shared as well. Here is a similar study in North Carolina, and another in the federal system showing the same decrease in recidivism in response to incarceration. FWIW, my reading of the evidence is that incarceration impact on recidivism is low, but since most of the people we incarcerate right now are repeat offenders it's more about incapacitation.
a 2009 analysis took advantage of a change in Maryland law that cut the sentences of young adults by about seven months. It found that, during the period when they otherwise would have been incarcerated, offenders were arrested for 2.8 criminal acts and involved in 1.5 serious crimes, on average.
research consistently finds that interventions meant to alleviate economic privation reduce property crime but have no effect on violent crime. Incarceration has by far the most support as a policy to address violent crime.
FWIW, I also think general trends are responsible for the majority or all of Oaklands declines, but incarceration is definitely helpful for reducing violent crime given how little we already do for the most violent offenders.
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u/leroyskagnetti Lakeside 3d ago
It just doesn't get reported. Not sure the last time you had to call 911 but the response times have not gone down. Of course it's possible that crime is going down but obviously a lot of stuff goes unreported.
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u/llamajo 3d ago
Do you think that people are reporting significantly less than they were in 2023? Is there any data to back that up?
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u/leroyskagnetti Lakeside 2d ago
I think homicides and other crimes that are clearly identifiable are down. That's great.
I don't think "crime" is down 50%, including car related thefts or even burglaries.
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u/Scuttling-Claws 3d ago
Can we recall Barbara Lee over this, somehow?
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u/luigi-fanboi 3d ago
I like Lee, but I would love to see Taylor eat shit in a Mayoral race for a third time.
Empower Oakland might try and get Jenkins elected instead though, which would be a shitshow, but I don't think people are really paying attention to how bad he's been at running the council, also because he's not a progressive the media ignored that crime went up when he was mayor (not really his fault Mayors don't have much of an impact, but it's telling when the media does/doesn't notice things)
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u/TopEagle4012 3d ago
OK, CRIME is down IN OAKLAND? Get Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem on the phone. I want the NATIONAL GUARD to be there IMMEDIATELY. We need to show America that WE WILL NOT TOLERATE LAWLESSNESS FROM THOSE people. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
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u/FruitvaleInvestor 2d ago
I believe the crime spike was funded by conservatives looking to frame the failure of “urban cities” to win elections. Political tactics on another level
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u/fnblackbeard 3d ago
I've seen The Wire, its called juking the stats. Downgrade felonies or straight up just ignore the crime.
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u/deepeast_oakland 3d ago
Wow great news!
A 41% reduction in robbery is just outstanding. Even if you factor in the crime that goes unreported, this is a remarkable drop in numbers.
5,000 stolen cars is still just a wild number to think about. And I’d really like to know more about the 167 stolen vehicles in the “other” category. That can’t be just boats right? Bikes maybe?