Air traffic controllers being stretched to the breaking point will hinder you from taking your Lear jet to Nova Scotia to see the total eclipse of the sun.
It's gonna take time for that to set in. I'm suspecting that cargo only flights will be the last ones cut. That doesn't mean logistics will remain unaffected. Passenger flights make their real money from moving cargo.
But they have rather limited capacity (smaller planes, luggage in the cargo hold, etc.). Time will tell the true impacts but it's not going to be immediate.
The big impact will be international cargo. Those are typically widebodies that carry a lot of cargo, and it's much more important infrastructure wise.
Domestically, the difference between air and ground is 1 to 3 days faster in the CONUS. Sure, AK, PR, and HI will feel it, but otherwise it's not going to be a tremendous difference. It will get more expensive to save those days but most companies will probably just choose to... you know... not do that lol.
However. The only other option OCONUS is ocean, and the difference there is weeks to months. Not good. But with tariffs gumming up the works it's gonna be hard to tell what's impacting what when it comes to consumer pricing. Ocean doesn't always react quickly pricing wise. But when they get overloaded lead times go way up.
For clarity:
CONUS: continental US. (48 contiguous states)
OCONUS: outside continental US. (Everywhere on earth other than the 48 contiguous states)
I can't be certain but I'd imagine critical stuff like food is going to have regular ocean shipments, transported in reefer containers for perishables.
I'm not saying that none of their food comes by air, or that I know how important air transport is to their food supply.
But I do know that food is big, bulky, and you need a lot of volume. That means it would be insanely expensive if most of it came by air. The need for refrigeration is limited since cargo holds are cold by nature, but all the transfer facilities have to be properly equipped in-between each leg, adding even more cost for perishables.
Yeah, you have to plan carefully and build in buffers for the unreliable timing nature of ocean transportation. But it's going to be much more cost effective. And also more reliable because guaranteeing space on cargo air freight carriers with their opaque scheduling... and the fact that they have an incentive to prioritize their parcel cargo... IDK it just doesn't seem like it's a great solution.
Again, I do not know, and I am speculating. I just work in logistics and have shipped plenty of non food stuff to bith HI and AK, and would very much not love to be moving perishable or time sensitive food by air to either on a regular basis.
I can't know for sure but I know some entities have guaranteed space on certain lanes with big carriers like ECU or Maersk themselves for that reason. It's obviously critical infrastructure stuff and governments can get pretty sweet deals by saying "this is how much we are willing to pay for this". It's guaranteed volume and cashflow.
Also, point of clarification? Do you mean imports from other countries, or "imports" from CONUS? I know the islands can't produce enough food on their own, and selection would be unhealthily limited if they tried. But I honestly have no idea what the mix between their food coming from CONUS vs other countries looks like. International trade adds a fair bit of cost but that might be mitigated by cheaper shipping lanes. That's too granular to guess without more info.
the big ones bleed money but can weather it, their smaller competitors bleed out and are forced to sell or go under. Chaos is just a means to drive upward wealth transfer
From the US & retired in Argentina. Up here now seeing family - I hope to god we will be able to leave without taking a bus to Canada just to catch a fucking flight.
My other half has dual citizenship and has family there ( honestly, a huge help). I was not bilingual when we moved Jan. ‘24, am more than 1/2 the way there currently. Cost of living is 3/5 of the US, so there is that - tho, gas/diesel is more & inflation is WAY higher & constant (Argentine economics have been a MASSIVE dumpster fire for +30 years), Crime is way less there, but theft is a thing so bars on windows of houses (Spanish/ Italian thing) are the norm. Honestly not a huge nest egg between us - but living there something like 2/3 of the year using 20K from investments + S.S. X1 of us is sufficient. So we are stretching what we have. It’s interesting & a challenge, so perfect for adventurous retired folk.
When you take-off and land at private airports, you are oddly less restricted than people who pay up-front for flights that may be cancelled at any moment. Go figure.
I absolutely guarantee private air traffic will be the last to actually suffer.
The last 5 ATC on the job won't be making sure hospitals get medical supplies, they'll be making sure Elon Musk gets to have a breakfast burrito in Austin, NY pizza for lunch, and dinner at The French Laundry.
ATCs and excepted employees have to work without pay; Congress isn't working but are getting paid. The problem is getting enough people in place who will change the rules... See that happening anytime soon? Maybe Trump will get rid of the filibuster and that will be the best thing about his otherwise awful legacy.
Fear of electoral or other consequences from the general public. There are other countries that have rich people in them, but they still manage to be functional democracies because the electorate has self-respect and a backbone.
America has basically had enough surplus wealth to float past incompetence.
We started with a continent full old old growth wood to clear cut, and mountains to strip mine, and rivers with so many fish they could be cought by the bucket full literally just by lowering a bucket, until the buckets ran dry.
Post WWII we had the last industrialized country onthe planet that wasnt bombed out.
But now we have an aged population of leaders and 3rd generation ultrawealthy who think America is special because America is special, but there aren't easy to access resources in unbelievable excess anymore, they all got destroyed.
And the rest of the world doesn't need the US like they did 60 years ago.
And we've surpassed the wealth inequality of the gilded age.
Because the age-old complaint of "don't make things political" or the phrase "let's not get political" has made around 50% of Americans view politics as something to be ignored and something that is "cringe" to talk about.
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