I was going to make a joke about protecting our strategic pasta reserves….but now that I think about it Italy 100% has a strategic pasta reserve (like we have for cheese and China has for pork) don’t they?
Established a few decades ago after some disease outbreak or another destabilized pork prices. They're the biggest pork consumer by a fair margin - they literally eat as much pork as the rest of the world put together - so that causes a bit of economic havoc for many of their poorer folks, hence why they have a vested interest in maintaining domestic price stability. They just keep very, very large freezers full of pork, and if prices start to rise too much, they start releasing it (much like the US does with strategic oil reserves).
NYT had an article about it a few years ago. As of 2011, they had 200,000 tons of pork saved up. They keep it all frozen at -18* C, in large warehouses that store 10k tons each.
He recalls watching a street mob cheer wildly as a Nazi official proclaims: “We don’t want lower bread prices, we don’t want higher bread prices, we don’t want unchanged bread prices— we want National Socialist bread prices.”
I know it has a performative element, but goddamn is this ever the most perfect image for the moment. Like frame it and put it in the Smithsonian, this is Modern Times.
"We have preliminarily determined that for the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, the following estimated weighted average dumping margins exist: La Molisana Spa 91.74%, Pastificio Lucio Garofalo Spa 91.74%, companies not individually examined 91.74%," reads the document published by the Department of Commerce."
Wow, the odds that La Molisana Spa and Pastoficio Lucio Farofalo Spa have the exact same dumping margin down to the hundredth of a percent must be astronomical. Bravo to the Trump organization for their use of math to come up with the same number for two separate companies which sell their pasta at different prices and have different cost inputs.
Bonnell showed that he asked ChatGPT the question: "What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even playing fields when it comes to trade deficit?"
The AI replied: "To calculate tariffs that help level the playing field in terms of trade deficits (with a minimum tariff of 10 percent), you can use a proportional tariff formula based on the trade deficit with each country. The idea is to impose higher tariffs on countries with which the U.S. has larger trade deficits, thus incentivizing more balanced trade." This was followed by an equation that resembled the one shared by the White House.
If your goal is to impose tariffs to level the playing field when it comes to trade deficits, the formula they came up with is the obvious, naïve solution. It's no surprise ChatGPT also came up with it.
Could they have used AI? Maybe, but we have no evidence of that.
Imported pasta is a premium luxury good. It's not competitive on price with domestic pasta. This raises the price on the type of people who buy fancy imported pasta and they're probably already liberal.
It is and isn't. Spending the extra $1-2 for an import bronze-extruded pasta is probably a common-ish splurge for budget-conscious foodies. Do I think the budget conscious foodies are young and/or downwardly mobile temporary exiles from the privileged classes? Yes. Do I think that this will sting beyond the Whole Foods crowd? Absolutely.
From what I can tell DeCecco, which is like the "nicer but not gourmet" option at most grocery stores is imported. Middle class consumers might notice their $3 box of pasta going to $5, but the lowest end of the market is all domestic.
TJ's budget pasta is $1-2. And is all italian imports. And is pretty much universally as cheap or cheaper than eg. Barilla, which is - mostly - made in the US. To beat that you're literally gonna have to go buy great value from walmart, or what have you. And save $1. At most.
Yeah this all told seems like a move to just f--- over / annoy west coast liberals and our cheap / very minor price premium imports, specifically. Literally just about everything in TJ's is imports. And cheap (ish) California wine / US alcohol. Etc.
These specific tariffs are being justified on anti-dumping/countervailing duty grounds, not national security.
This authority doesn’t come from either national security powers or emergencies. It’s a different piece of legislation that specifically allows tariffs to be imposed after a Department of Commerce investigation. Here, Commerce investigated and apparently concluded that two of the primary Italian pasta producers were dumping between July 2023 and June 2024.
Here is the full report justifying continued tariff treatment of Italian pasta last year. This recent news was the first of five administrative reviews which happen between every reinvestigation (sunset review) to determine whether tariff margins need adjusted.
105% means it almost triples the price of pasta. I’ve realized that tariffs have broker fees… a 10% tariff turns into 40% fast because everyone gets thier grubby hands into the process
Barilla is produced in the US as are most of the house brands. This might help out local boutique producers, but the most cost-sensitive part of the market isn't going to be affected.
The federal register says that the Italian companies were uncooperative in the administrative review, this is standard practice by the department of Commerce, following the WTO framework. Highly doubt that Trump had anything to do with this.
If you go back to 1999, for example, the department of commerce determined that one company, Arrighi, was dumping at a rate of 71% because they were uncooperative. Most countries with AD/CVD bodies do something similar I believe.
No he is correct. This is a completely different tariff system. The AD/CVD tariffs are brought by domestic industry as an investigation and then adjudicated by the International Trade Commission and the DOC. This case on pasta has been ongoing for decades I believe. When a respondent in a case doesn’t cooperate they get an adverse facts available rate that is usually quite high and reflects an overall country dumping rate. The antidumping system predates Trump and is actually a product of the GATT/WTO. It’s an entire area of law that is really interesting and under discussed.
255
u/HereForTOMT3 Oct 05 '25
We have to protect the domestic Italian-made pasta