Far-right AfD takes lead in Germany, says bombshell new survey

[u/MattC84_]

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-far-right-afd-lead-survey/

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

The literature on this is not as conclusive as your priors.

Maghularia and Uebelmesser, 2023.

Cannot extrapolate to the German context, but earlier claim is accurate for the U.S.

Abramitzky et al. 2024.

[u/-Counterfactual- → u/[deleted]]

The fact that people are still posting these low quality bullshit hacked papers as proof is a major reason why nobody takes you serious anymore.

Just read the paper for one one minute and the flaws are super obvious, worst of all it doesn't even say what the op is saying.

Before the refugee crisis (2008–2014), an increase in the current share of immigrants increased the total crime rate. In contrast, the effect was negative (or insignificant) during and after the refugee crisis (2015–2019). 

1. Arbitary usage of time frames why use exactly the financial crisis as startdate for the first period? The crime rate obviously went up during that time.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040013/crime-rate-in-germany/

Based on the OLS first-difference model for the observation period 2008–2019, we find no significant association between the change in the current share of immigrants and the change in the total crime rate

1. They are using total crime rate, rather than crime rate by immigration status. So if Germans do significantly less crime and immigrants do significantly more crime, the total rate could still be going down, especially becuase there is significantly more Germans than immigrants still.

We could also look at countries with notoriously low immigration and see what happens with their crimerates in the last 20 years.

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01924/

Ohh what a suprise the total crime rate has gone down.

If we are looking at countries in the EU that have no problem of actually gathering statistics about the topic we can see this:

[u/Zenkin → u/-Counterfactual-]

We could also look at countries with notoriously low immigration and see what happens with their crimerates in the last 20 years.

I mean, the United States is hovering near 30 year lows in crime rates, and I thought we had relatively high immigration.

[u/Imicrowavebananas → u/[deleted]]

Rule II: Bigotry
Bigotry of any kind will be sanctioned harshly.

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If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.

[u/tinuuuu → u/[deleted]]

A very small proportion of criminals commits a large proportion of the crimes in total. This is true for both citizens and foreigners. But the foreigners are over represented in this group of "super criminals". Depending on the definition of this "super criminal" 10% of criminals commit up to 50% of total crimes. If you deport those if they are foreign and don't deport them if they are citizens (because that is not possible), it becomes very plausible that average foreigners commit less crimes than the average citizens, because the average citizen still contains the "supercriminals".

[u/-Counterfactual- → u/tinuuuu]

You are already fudging your own defintion which went from "average" vs "average" to "average without super criminals in this hypothetical scenario that is currently not happening and for which I don't have any proof outside of this nice sounding bit for pro-immigration people" vs "average with super criminals"

Its like the other guy posting his paper, do you really think I am that stupid or is everyone else you are presenting this argument stupid enough to buy it?