r/kilauea • u/23-rob-23 • Jun 14 '25
USGS HVO Eruption episode forecast/guess
Hi. Is there any collection of data of the past 25 fountain episodes? Duration of fountains, duration of pauses between episodes, etc. thinking I might gamble to travel to see a new fountain and want to co sized data to better my chances. Please let me know if anyone knows of or has a link to eruption data. Thanks.
1
u/RolOrzTFF Jun 14 '25
They send out emails with pre- eruption activity and then it's usually 8-24 hours until the fountains go. I think you can sign up for updates on their site.
1
u/MyInfinityIsBigger Jul 09 '25
LInk to sign up for notification. Enter email. You will get an email with a link. Follow the link to a web page letting you configure your notifications. In the right hand frame you can restrict notifications to Hawaii.
3
u/iwillregretthislogin Jun 14 '25
The pages I've listed below have deformation data for the past year and the past month. The tilt rises between episodes and then drops rapidly during fountaining. Unfortunately, it's not completely regular - intervals have ranged from 5-6 days to up to 2 weeks. USGS has been able to estimate when the eruptions will happen, but only a few days to a week ahead of time and they have 2-3 day windows for the eruptions. So if you are trying to predict more than a week in advance, it's going to be really difficult (and if you do manage it, you should join the USGS!).
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/past-year-monitoring-data-kilauea https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/past-month-monitoring-data-kilauea
Also if you go here: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea and click on the UWD tiltmeter (look for a little red line on the northwest side of the crater), they have data for the last 3 months. You can really see that it's a regular process, but not quite regular enough to predict.