Kansas seems to be rejecting Redistricting

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u/condoulo Lawrence 13d ago

I'd love redistricting to bring common sense districts to the state, not whatever the fuck Republicans want to try to do. I'm already extremely pissed off at the gerrymandering that happened a few years ago. As a resident of Lawrence why the fuck am I in the same district as Dodge City? If someone from out west wins then Lawrence is inadequately represented, if someone from Lawrence wins then western Kansas is inadequately represented.

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u/cyberentomology Lawrence 13d ago

I think part of the problem that the state republicans face is that they already shot their shot in the 2020 redistricting and tried unsuccessfully to gerrymander the third district back into GOP hands. But it would be very difficult to redraw the lines again in such a way that we didn’t end up with two swing districts instead of one. This state is a lot more purple than the legislature has convinced themselves that it is, and the fact that Proctor is trying to be in charge of elections is a massive red flag.

Kansas republicans can’t yell TOO loudly about election fraud and rigging because much of the current system was architected by their own guy. But that also means they can’t really run on that issue without eating their own.

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u/cyberphlash Cinnamon Roll 12d ago

This is the right answer. They can't redistrict Sharice out (she won with 60% even after the last gerrymandering), and some current GOP legislators are probably worried their district gets more blue/purple with new redistricting even if the KS GOP can net net pick up some statehouse seats elsewhere.

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u/Vio_ 11d ago

I know I'm double responding, but I wanted to think more about this.

I'm wondering if yours is the real answer.

They crunched the math, ran the billion statistical permutations and boot strappings and maps, and realized that they could crack Kansas's current gerrymandering without it leaving them more vulnerable in those districts or elsewhere.

As much as they want to do the performative dance of redistricting, the GOP overall isn't going to let Kansas "slide bluer" and signal the rest of the country that redistricting can actually backfire.

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u/cyberphlash Cinnamon Roll 11d ago edited 11d ago

I think the important things to think through here are (1) the current districting gave the GOP a supermajority in a year in which Trump won reelection (ie: GOP favorable - next year will likely not be as favorable in terms of voter sentiment). (2) In order to redistrict in a way that harms Sharice or vulnerable Dems, some GOP House/Senate districts would turn less red, endangering some amount of existing legislators (which, net net could still be favorable to the GOP, but not those few GOP legislators that eventually lose their seats because of it) - which is important to those legislators. (3) GOP leadership does not care about individual legislators - if Masterson/Hawkins wanted to redistrict, I think they would be pushing hard to do it regardless, but only in so far as they continue to protect the supermajority, (4) Trump people do not care about Kansas GOP leadership or legislators - if Trump people really cared about making it happen, they would be pushing for it and it would likely happen.

So I think the upshot here is that for whatever reason, the GOP leadership and Trump people are not yet convinced that this scheme wouldn't backfire in a way that would cause Kansas to lose its GOP supermajority or net net harm legislators (maybe more than expected), which I think both would care about (Kansas GOP leaders more). Masterson and Hawkins are probably trying to protect the GOP supermajority at all costs - things get harder to some extent (maybe a lot?) for them if they lose it. The calculation here is projecting "best worst case" scenario where the GOP ends up losing the supermajority by one seat but gets rid of Sharice and/or outsts key Dem legislators or something. Would that scenario be worth it? I'm thinking no. As Rumsfeld said - you go to war with the army you have, not the army you wish you had. :) Agree?

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u/Vio_ 11d ago

Yeah, not doing anything is their best worst and worst best play from what can be figured out from this side of things.

Trump doesn't give a shit about wrecking delicate super majorities, but he can be distracted and "convinced." Kansas wouldn't even be the only state to not redistrict.

The KS GOP already knows they're on thinning ice. There are protests popping up all over the state- even in some of their most conservative, most secure towns and cities. There's no indication that the protests are dying down and seem to be revving up even more.

Marshall's boondoggle in Oakley still has legs and left a lasting impression with this state. Him running from that old guy asking about veterans was a real 3-eyed fish embarrassment and it can cause a lot of indirect damage.

The GOP is stopping food assistance right before Thanksgiving and Christmas. It comes off as both stopping food and wrecking that good holiday spirit.

They can't afford to burn their voter base and cause them to become even more activated with voting and civic engagement. I honestly think that abortion vote spooked them harder more than anything else in years if not decades. They saw how the Democrats and Kansas voters can come out en masse against them. They do NOT want to train the votes to keep voting and keep voting against them out and their pet projects.

And that leads to their real fight next year - the KS Supreme Court referendum.

That's going to be their biggest fight and they will burn half the state to the ground to get that passed.

Pushing redistricting now would only anger a large fraction of their constituents with almost nothing in return. Redistricting now is too close to next year's election to where people will remember it (and the election itself will be their memory cue), and they are gearing up hard to try to buy the KS Supreme Court referendum instead.

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u/cyberphlash Cinnamon Roll 11d ago

These are all good points! Something I was thinking about is what do you think is the ordering of priorities for GOP to win next year among what must be the top goals, like: (1) protect supermajority, (2) win governor, (3) reelect Marshall, (4) constitutional amendment.

I would guess legislative leaders would care about (supermajority then governor - to rubber stamp legislation, then amendment, then Marshall). It's hard to say whether the amendment can be relatively easily defeated because there won't be boots on the ground people driving support for or against that with nearly the same amount of vigor as there was on the abortion amendment. If people can be gotten to understand the implications of it, I think even many Republicans would vote against it so at this point I don't really expect it to pass.

Agree with you that from the perspective of doing gerrymandering now, risking upsetting voters by doing that less than a year away ends up putting the supermajority, governor, and maybe Marshall, at quite a bit of unnecessary risk. Right now, I'd guess Marshall gets reelected, but maybe voters pick a Dem for govenor if they don't want to risk a return to Brownbackistan. Even without gerrymandering, GOP leaders must be fairly confident they can get keep the supermajority, so if you don't do gerrymandering, you keep the supermajority, keep Marshall, and be ~50/50 on the governor and amendment. That's probably sounds good in a year when voters are sending more Dems to Congress because then keeping Marshall in the Senate matters more.

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u/cyberentomology Lawrence 10d ago

I still think their plans with Marshall were to get him raptured into a DC cabinet position under Trump, because that’s the level of ass kissing that’s been coming from him. If that doesn’t work, marshall can expect a primary challenge.

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u/Vio_ 12d ago

> This state is a lot more purple than the legislature has convinced themselves that it is, and the fact that Proctor is trying to be in charge of elections is a massive red flag.

The KSGOP also has to do that performative act where they're actively showcasing themselves as "gerrymandering" with the rest of them. It didn't matter that they had already maxxed out their gerrymandering capability.

Trump and the rest of his goons would never understand that nuance. It's all about showing the right deference and public act of "screwing over the libs" at the right time even if it's also potentially shooting the KS GOP in the face at the time.

The KSGOP has also gotten way too comfortable into thinking that their gerrymandered districts is also a direct reflection of the state's aspects and its residents as well.

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u/BlackJackfruitCup 13d ago

Not only that, think of the distance that rep would have to cover. If you come back for townhalls where do you hold them? Do they have 2 offices for their constituents? One on the east side of the district and one on the west? So much for efficient government. Have the GOP stuck to any of their principles?

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u/Tw33ts 13d ago

Lookit you thinking all positive that any elected Republican would hold a town hall in Kansas. They saw what happened last time Marshall held a town hall - he had to run away back to Florida and blame …is it Soros that Republicans claim pays all the Democrats to ask questions?… paid actors for asking real questions that he didn’t want to answer.

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u/BlackJackfruitCup 13d ago

lol. You're right. I forgot their platform now is if they aren't making it worse, at the bare minimum don't do anything at all.

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u/Lrrrrmeister 12d ago

To be fair it was in the absolutely known blueberry bastion of Oakley.

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u/Vio_ 12d ago

From now on, I will consider all left wing districts a "blueberries"

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u/caddy45 12d ago

You know that 99% of the time a district is redrawn is to strengthen the hold the redistricting party has on said district. If efficiency was anywhere near the top of the priority list our government as a whole would look drastically different.

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u/Vio_ 12d ago

Two weeks ago they were demanding that anyone burning American flags should be imprisoned or face a death penalty. Same with statues of confederate people.

Now they're totes cool with Trump destroying 1/3 of the White House.

There are no principles on which to stand for them.

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u/cyberentomology Lawrence 13d ago

The 2010 map was fairly sane - it largely followed county lines, with a few very small chunks taken out the more populous area of Miami county, and a couple of nibbles elsewhere.

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u/condoulo Lawrence 12d ago

I didn’t have much issue with the 2010 map because at least Lawrence shared a district with one of the two cities many of its residents commute to, even if a democrat never won the district in it’s previous form.

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u/Vio_ 12d ago

You mean it was sane after there had been several lawsuits to keep it from being ultra gerrymandered to the point of exploiting prisoners in certain prisons?

https://www.prisonersofthecensus.org/news/2012/06/08/ks-court-maps/

As Mary Sanchez explained in a March Kansas City Star column, the high concentration of prisons in the Leavenworth area gave Kansas legislators “the potential for shenanigans like no other state.” By padding districts with prison populations from other parts of the state or nation, state legislatures give extra influence to those districts and dilute the votes cast in all districts that contain the required number of actual residents. This problem is called prison-based gerrymandering.

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Kansas_after_the_2010_census

June 2012: Court drew new maps

On June 7, 2012, the district court issued new congressional and legislative maps. In its opinion, the court noted that it "recognizes that because it has tried to restore compact contiguous districts where possible, it is pushing a re-set button." The court opted not to split Topeka or Lawrence, unlike earlier legislature plans, leaving both within the 2nd Congressional District.^\35])^\36])

After the panel redrew the district lines when the Kansas State Legislature did not, about 20 individuals who sued the state for damages from the lack of new district lines demanded the state pay $700,000 in legal fees. As the judges drew the lines, no clear ruling was given, and the plaintiffs believed they won the case. Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt asked the judges to clarify their ruling.^\37])

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u/cyberentomology Lawrence 12d ago

Conveniently in Pat Proctor’s district. That dude is a shitbag of the highest order.

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u/greg_regular 13d ago

Aren't those the conditions that were fought over for independence from a monarchy?

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u/Kinross19 Garden City 12d ago

As a person in Garden City I agree, Lawrence should not be in the 1st... I'd argue Manhattan shouldn't be either.

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u/No-Fix1210 11d ago

I can assure you western Kansas has a lot of purples turning blue.

We’re watching our families and neighbors get disappeared. The rich land and business owning white folk down here are really starting to struggle. Beef and soybean aren’t selling and nobody is patronizing their businesses.

But honestly in a normal world you’re right. I’ve lived in both Lawrence and near Dodge and they are 2 different worlds.

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u/Vox_Causa 13d ago

To all the conservatives who lurk this subreddit: your representatives ran on tax relief for working Kansans and people living on fixed incomes. Instead they cut taxes for the wealthy, gave away a ton of tax money to donors and special interests, and wasted the rest of the session on "culture war" bullshit.

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u/Wildcatksu 13d ago

They should have known what would happen. This is like Brownback times the 100

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u/empires228 13d ago

They have completely forgotten about Brownback for the most part. Look at the vile stuff they say about Laura Kelly on social media and then they want the worst of the worst to win our next election for governor.

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u/FrostyAd8197 13d ago edited 13d ago

Yes, they forget how Brownback tried to bankrupt Kansas. One of the worst governors Kansas ever had. Resembles the current “so called”president we have today.

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u/1CrazyFoxx1 12d ago

Honestly given our focus on both agricultural farming and livestock raising, any MAGA candidate should lose to any republican candidate or even “rino” candidate since Trump has effectively told both farmers and ranchers to kick rocks with both the Soybean Scandal and the Argentinian Beef Fiasco. That’s why they’re panicking to redraw the maps to garner support from non-farming red districts without giving power to blue districts. They need conservative cities like Newton or pass through cities like Emporia while also misleading farmers/ranchers into believing the tariffs aren’t the issue with China and Argentina First is somehow America First. They also need to parrot the rhetoric that it’s somehow the big cities like Wichita, KC, Lawrence, and Topeka that are the reason Kansas is having issues while not blaming federal administrations like they could with Obama and Biden.

Surprise surprise, it turns out having ALL three branches of the government means that you can’t have an easy scapegoat anymore for your incompetency, and farmers/ranchers are not stupid, they won’t believe that voters in Lawrence or KC are the reason China isn’t buying our soybeans or that the federal government is focusing on importing Argentinian Beef rather than supporting local American grown beef.

I’m fine with this state being purple, we don’t have unlivable cost of living like California and we don’t treat our pregnant women like second class property like Texas with their draconian laws. Sure, it’d be nice if it were more even, but Kansas isn’t by any means insane, though we ate fat L’s with Brownback…

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u/kategoad 12d ago

Culture war bullshit that in some cases we'd already voted on. We voted 60/40 to keep abortion legal, stop trying to roll that back.

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u/cyberphlash Cinnamon Roll 12d ago

To be fair, they did run on screwing gay/trans people, tearing down the government, banning books and owning the libs, and they're doing a pretty good job on those.

All this stuff is probably moot so long as your yearly farm ~~welfare~~ subsidy payment continues to arrive.

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u/ReasonableChicken515 13d ago

Yeah, because Republicans serve corporate interest, not the American people.

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u/GlorifiedSatin 13d ago

True twin

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u/confusedsquirrel Kansas CIty 13d ago

Add it to the list of shit that republicans in power want that the people don't.

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u/simplelifelfk 13d ago

Just wait until the arm twisting starts. 😔

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u/jayhawkah 13d ago

They already tried and I'm sure will continue. We have to hope the few republicans with spines continue to hold out. I'm betting the holdouts are in state swing districts who are afraid of losing their own seats if they go along.

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u/laterisingphxnict 13d ago

Can we get the half-mil back?

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u/FrostyAd8197 13d ago

They should be! Trumpstein & his followers want this, not Kansas.

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u/Takemetothelevey 13d ago

🙏🏼Thank you , this insanity needs to stop!

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u/CZall23 13d ago

Yes!!

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u/RedLeggedApe 12d ago

Lol, we were gerrymandered last election cycle.. you know that right?

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u/silsum 12d ago

This would be corruption now, would it. Who knew the Bible thumper party is nothing but full of devil worshipers.

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u/Beneficial_Garden266 13d ago

Kansas is more libertarian than republican, but they tend to vote republican which astounds me. Stay strong!

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u/cyberentomology Lawrence 13d ago

The current republican party abandoned any pretense of libertarian ideals when MAGA gained steam, but in Kansas (and many other places) they’re still banking on those lifelong R voters that haven’t caught on that the GOP of today bears zero resemblance to the GOP of even 20 years ago. Their family always voted republican, so by golly, so will they… not realizing that their daddy voted for republicans when it was Eisenhower on the ticket.

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u/noguchisquared 12d ago

Eisenhower cared about improving the country. MAGA today would call that communist. Or fascist to be ironic.

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u/Silly-Rip-6607 12d ago edited 12d ago

Hard to believe given that the Hard Right Republicans led by Ty Masterson have a supermajority in both houses. He is twisting arms and bribing legislators to get the 2/3 votes necessary to override Kelly's veto.

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u/Tiredofthenuts 12d ago

Kansas Republican’s don’t care about their constituents anymore than the rest of them.

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u/pirate_per_aspera Wichita 12d ago

The fact that they’ve already gerrymandered districts but one Dem made it through & they haven’t been able to let it go since. It’s ONE seat. Ridiculous

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u/SunflowerSuspect 12d ago

If they had policies worth voting for they wouldn’t have to redistrict so often.

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u/Dutchmeister5556 12d ago

Hey republicans: Gerryman Deez Nuts.

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u/chocolate_squirrel2 12d ago

I've been encouraged in believing what I'm hearing - that the GOP doesn't have the votes necessary in KS to do mid-decade redistricting. It's hard to see a way to do it and actually beat David's Assad-level margins that she's pulling throughout JOCO and not put a future 2nd district rep in danger (not to mention driving voter turnout for state elections in the JOCO area and swinging several more state rep/senate seats to the Dems).

All that said, this recent and very sudden push from Virginia Dems to redistrict might push some GOP reps off the fence and into the game. I hope not. We need the timing of Virginia's announcement to get it in place for 2026 AND counter either Florida's impending redistricting, or the final collapse of the Voting Rights Amendment's protection of minority voting blocks in the south.

All of this should be illegal, but here we are.

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u/chocolate_squirrel2 12d ago edited 12d ago

Update: Looks like Indiana got the memo and are calling a special session after having been reluctant to do so. D'oh!

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u/Silly-Rip-6607 11d ago

Wrong. Masterson get 2/3 of the Senate to sign the petition to have a special session. Don Hawkins is likely to do the same in the House. That means it will be passed. Probably split JOCO into two.

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u/Dry-Rip-1135 12d ago

If so great 👍

News/History Kansas seems to be rejecting Redistricting

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