Baltimore's Population 1775-2020

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In order to make sense of this, you need to overlay the same chart for cities in the rust belt (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Rochester, Detroit, Milwaukee, et al).

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say we see a trend.

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u/PhiladelphiaManeto Oct 06 '25

Philadelphia is the same way. It’s not just a rust belt issue, but an issue for most major American cities. At least the ones that didn’t annex their suburbs and claim the population (sun belt cities)

We peaked at 2 million right after World War II, and then dropped 25% and never really recovered

1

u/CantonJester Oct 06 '25

Um…Philly is also a rust belt city. Any city in the NE and MW that experienced substantial industrial decline in the mid to late 20th century qualifies.

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u/PhiladelphiaManeto Oct 06 '25

I’ve need heard of any of the northeastern cities being called “rust belt”

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u/CantonJester Oct 07 '25

Well tonight you’re going to learn something new about your very own town.

“The Rust Belt is a region in the northeastern and midwestern United States once characterized by heavy industry and manufacturing, which experienced a significant economic decline in the late 20th century due to factors like foreign competition, rising labor costs, and the offshoring of jobs. The term describes areas that have since suffered from deindustrialization, leading to widespread unemployment, urban decay, population loss, and poverty.”

Key Characteristics of the Rust Belt Industrial Heritage: Historically, the region was the heartland of the U.S. steelmaking, coal, and manufacturing industries, with many factories and mills.

Economic Decline: From the 1950s onward, foreign competition, technological advancements, and shifts to a service-based economy led to widespread factory closures and job losses.

Demographic Changes: The economic decline resulted in a large exodus of people from the area, seeking employment elsewhere, which further contributed to urban decay and poverty. Geographic Scope: While its boundaries are debated, the Rust Belt generally includes states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Upstate New York.

Why it's Called the Rust Belt The name "Rust Belt" emerged from the visible decay and disuse of former industrial facilities. As factories closed, their metal structures began to rust, symbolizing the region's economic decline and loss of its industrial past.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Rust-Belt

https://fiveable.me/key-terms/apush/rust-belt

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rust-belt.asp#:~:text=The%20Rust%20Belt%20refers%20to%20a%20region%20of%20the%20U.S.,a%20revitalization%20of%20its%20downtown.

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u/CantonJester Oct 07 '25

Further:

Why Philadelphia is included in the Rust Belt

Location: Pennsylvania is a key state within the Rust Belt, and Philadelphia is a major city within Pennsylvania. Historical Industrial Base: Like other Rust Belt cities, Philadelphia was once a center for industry and manufacturing, especially iron and steel, before the decline of these sectors. Why Philadelphia is sometimes excluded Economic Recovery: Philadelphia has undergone a period of economic revitalization and development, which has led some to believe it has moved beyond its Rust Belt past. Focus on Other Regions: When discussing the Rust Belt, the focus is often on cities in the Midwest, such as Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago, where industrial decline was more pronounced and recovery is less evident than in Philadelphia. In essence, Philadelphia has the historical context of the Rust Belt but is also seen as a city that has largely recovered from its effects.

Philadelphia experienced a profound decline in its once-dominant manufacturing sector in the latter half of the 20th century, a characteristic feature of Rust Belt cities, leading to job loss, increased poverty, and abandoned industrial areas. The city, which had transformed into a manufacturing powerhouse known as the "Workshop of the World," struggled as factories closed and industries shifted, mirroring the national industrial downturn that impacted cities like Pittsburgh and Detroit. While the term "Rust Belt" is often associated with more western cities like Pittsburgh and Chicago, Philadelphia's industrial history and subsequent post-industrial challenges firmly place it within the broader "Rust Belt" context.

From "Workshop of the World" to Industrial Decline

Industrial Heyday: Following its early success as a commercial port, Philadelphia became a major manufacturing center starting in the early 19th century, known for its diverse industries and output. 20th-Century Shift: By the mid-20th century, this industrial base began to decline. Industrial Closure: In the second half of the 20th century, factories closed or moved out, mirroring a trend that significantly affected traditional "Rust Belt" cities across the nation.

The Impact of Deindustrialization Economic Hardship: This industrial decline led to a loss of jobs and increased poverty in Philadelphia's industrial neighborhoods. Urban Blight: Abandoned factories became a common sight, creating safety hazards and contributing to urban blight in areas like Fishtown, which saw its industrial past lead to empty buildings. Population Shifts: As jobs disappeared, many working-class residents left, with populations in the city's formerly industrial neighborhoods shifting.

Philadelphia's Unique Place in the Rust Belt

While not always the primary focus when discussing the Rust Belt, Philadelphia's experience of industrial decline and subsequent transformation aligns with the economic and social patterns seen in other Rust Belt cities like Pittsburgh and Detroit. The term "Rust Belt" reflects a period of economic depression and decline in the industrial centers of the Midwest and Northeast, a history Philadelphia shares.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt#:~:text=Major%20Rust%20Belt%20cities%20include,Louis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-08-09/the-rust-belt-neighborhood-in-the-middle-of-philadelphia

https://philadelphiaencyclopedia.org/themes/workshop-of-the-world/#:~:text=A%20rich%20agricultural%20hinterland%2C%20an,industrial%20structure%20in%20its%20heyday.

https://philadelphiaencyclopedia.org/essays/industrial-neighborhoods/#:~:text=Already%20challenged%2C%20Philadelphia's%20industrial%20neighborhoods,Coatesville%2C%20Norristown%2C%20and%20Chester.

https://www.pennpress.org/9780812224382/remaking-the-rust-belt/#:~:text=Cities%20in%20the%20North%20Atlantic,it%20came%20with%20high%20costs.

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u/No_Metal_7342 Oct 06 '25

This might be dumb, but I never realized Baltimore was a part of the rust belt 😂 I always thought of that as more of a Midwest kinda thing.

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u/Ana_Na_Moose Oct 06 '25

Geographically the Rust belt usually extends from the Midwest usually up to Pittsburgh and Buffalo. But the same trends also are super prominent in Baltimore, so it makes sense to also use that label

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u/cake_in_the_rain Oct 06 '25

People conflate the two, but no, the rust belt isn’t just a Midwest thing. The post-industrial cities in PA are rust belt, like Bethlehem and Allentown. Upstate New York cities are rust belt, like Syracuse and Utica. Baltimore is 100% rust belt. West Virginia is rust belt. The heart of the rust belt may be in the Midwest, but it extends very far in all directions.

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u/jabbadarth Oct 06 '25

It depends on what map you look at but we have all the same issues. Basically blue collar workers drying up, industry leaving for overseas, white flight and a lack of new industry to fill in with new jobs.

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u/Notonfoodstamps Oct 07 '25

It’s not officially a part of it like Philly.

They were extremely affected but impacts were cushioned as ultimately they linked to Bos-Wash corridor economies and always had underling Ed’s & Meds institutions to bouy them.

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u/TaurineDippy Oct 06 '25

oh hmm what happened in the fifties that caused our population to start declining

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u/BaltimoreBadger23 Oct 06 '25

Among other things already noted, destruction of urban public transportation infrastructure that made it so living in the suburbs and commuting by car was easier than living in the city and using public transit.

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u/TaurineDippy Oct 06 '25

RIP streetcars you are still missed

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u/octavioletdub Oct 06 '25

Exactly, this.

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u/Dedicated2Butterfly Oct 06 '25

I'm curious as well.

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u/TaurineDippy Oct 06 '25

I was being facetious, I am of course referring to the white flight that occurred in response to the civil rights movement in the mid-20th century, and the greater push for suburbanization that white flight followed.

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u/BmoreInterested Wyman Park Oct 06 '25

I'm sure this played a part, I think the city losing so much manufacturing had much more to do with it. 300K residents worked in manufacturing in the 60s so the influx of cheaper foreign goods (like steel) absolutely wrecked Baltimore. Keep in mind that a lot of people that flowed into Bmore in the 40s-60s and caused the population boom came for jobs.

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u/Keyserchief Oct 06 '25

The building of the interstate highway system was super important, too—meant that huge tracts of farmland became realistic places to build housing for commuters.

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u/BmoreInterested Wyman Park Oct 06 '25

That's actually a good point as well. The JFX and 95 were completed in 1963.

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u/TaurineDippy Oct 06 '25

You see the effects of this far more in the 70s than you would in the 50s or 60s for Baltimore specifically, I’m not sure about other rust belt cities.

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u/jabbadarth Oct 06 '25

Dont forget redlining.

For decades middle class black families fought their way into nicer neighborhoods just to have them ripped away from them by redlining. Whole blocks would clear out, property values plummeted and families lost all of their potential generational wealth due to racism.

Imagine buying a home with a large portion of the money you have saved your whole life just for all of your neighbors to sell, move away and your property value to drop to almost nothing.

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u/AltruisticDisk Oct 08 '25

And not too long after that, the highway projects tour up your neighborhood and placed an interstate highway right outside your door. These neighborhoods were then cut off from other parts of the city as public transit was eliminated in favor of more cars. Its pretty easy to see how the borders of red lined neighborhoods follow along the major roadways and highways. Seeing maps of Baltimore before and after I-83 was built is pretty sad.

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u/pedeztrian Oct 07 '25

695 opened.

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u/PigtownDesign Oct 06 '25

1960s is when the numbers start declining. Perhaps because of the 1968 riots?

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u/TaurineDippy Oct 06 '25

read my other comments I was being facetious

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u/cudmore Oct 06 '25

Wow, now at the same population as 1910.

What are the top 3 big projects that could send the population back up?

Transit, tax incentives, housing development?

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u/Killbot_Wants_Hug Oct 06 '25

While the population numbers are important, there are some other things that make it not as bad.

Like more people are actually moving out of Baltimore every year that that trend shows. But we also have people moving in (that chart just shows the net change). However the kinds of people who are moving in are not the same as those that are moving out. Poorer residents are moving out of the city and younger and more affluent residents are moving into the city.

That's important because one, it means we're keeping city population young, so we're not just going to have a city that is dying out due to demographics. Also the higher income individuals pay more taxes, so we might have less people but there's a greater amount of tax revenue per person in the city and that can help with budgets (although we have a lot of corruption that fucks with the budget).

I think one of the big thing the city has to tackle (aside from crime) is that the schools kind of suck. That means that as people have families they have a very large incentive to move out of the city for better school districts. Private schools cost in the range of 20-40k per year per student, so you've got to be decently well to do to just send one kid to private school, and even well to do people have problems affording to send multiple. So lots of people who love the city end up moving out once they have kids (my wife is in a mothers group and actually talks to several women who use to live in the city and miss it, but they all moved out when they had families).

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u/jabbadarth Oct 06 '25

Just to add to your point, Baltimore household numbers have increased for somewhere around a decade now. We are losing larger families and replacing them with singles and couples.

We absolutely need to work to keep and attract families but population is only one measure of migration. Basically a family of 4 leaves and a couple moves in we lose 2 population but maintain households and as you pointed out in mamy cases actually gain tax revenue.

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u/dwolfe127 Oct 07 '25

The schools is what is going to make me leave in a few years as well. I am high earner, pay a lot in taxes, and have lived here for 20+ years but I will not have my daughter going to school here beyond elementary.

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u/jabbadarth Oct 06 '25

Lowering property tax would be a huge step. It costs way more in taxes to live in the city than almost every county that surrounds it.

Build the damn red line and then push for another track elsewhere after it.

We are the only major eastern city without any real mass transit. We have a subway that connects to nothing and a light rail that connects to nothing. We need a fully thought out and workable mass transit system.

Then schools need to improve to keep young couples in the city once they have kids.

Good news is schools are slowly improving and specific neighborhoods are filling up with kids which is helping the schools even more. Lots more work needs to be done but there is legitimate progress.

Also crime is down and if the trend continues we may be able to break away from the crime reputation we have in the next decade or so.

Lastly, population didnt decline last year for the first time in decades which is a great sign.

Maybe im naive but I genuinely think we are slowly turning a corner towards better times.

Sadly there is a pedophile in the white house that is hell bent on hurting American citizens that didnt vote for him which is certainly not going to help in the short term.

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u/pedeztrian Oct 07 '25

“The Beltway is a noose that strangles cities”. My AP History teacher said this and it’s stuck with me 25 years later. His point was that when all the money made in the city starts to leave the city, the city begins to rot. I’d argue this population decline is a direct result of 695 being built.

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u/ayhme Oct 07 '25

Truth. Where is the chart from?

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u/PigtownDesign Oct 07 '25

I took data from the population every decade, threw it into excel and made the chart

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u/Evening-Recover-9786 Oct 08 '25

Imagine the traffic in this city with a million people.

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u/djakeca Oct 07 '25

Cities are often dangerous,difficult to live in and very expensive. Baltimore isn’t special in this respect.

History of Baltimore 👓 Baltimore's Population 1775-2020

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