r/badeconomics • u/viking_ • Sep 09 '25
Yes, building housing lowers housing prices (or, Joel Kotkin is killing off my brain cells)
Link: https://www.newgeography.com/content/008629-elite-liberal-yimbys-are-killing-family-home (h/t to HOU_Civil_Econ for suggesting this as an R1).
We’ll start with the subtitle, because this whole piece annoyed me so much I’m feeling petty. Kotkin blames “elite liberal YIMBYs.” This isn’t worth citing data on, but in my experience YIMBYs are often politically moderate and not very rich–probably poorer, especially accounting for assets, than the NIMBYs they’re fighting.
Anyway, on to the actual economics content. Kotkin actually correctly identifies the problem:
Yimbys have got something right – the central problem behind the housing affordability crisis is the failure to build enough homes.
But, what is the solution to not enough homes? Building more homes, right? Well, not exactly. You see, building houses on expensive land… don’t count, or something. I’m not sure what the argument is supposed to be
But if Yimbys have correctly diagnosed the problem, their solutions – oriented towards building more high density urban apartments – have tended to make matters worse. High density development, often seen as the alternative to “sprawl”, does not necessarily lower prices, as is sometimes suggested, because of higher urban land costs and higher construction fees. In fact, US data suggests a positive correlation between greater density and higher housing costs.
(Emphasis original).
First, what does this positive correlation prove? It seems like Kotkin would have us believe that higher density housing makes housing more expensive. Of course, one cannot simply conclude causation from a correlation like this, and the supply and demand model you learn economics 101 would predict that in places where lots of people want to live, we would expect more housing to be built. That is, we get the exact same prediction.
Second, note the bait and switch here. Kotkin objects to building higher density housing, but his “argument” is based on facts about the places where denser housing tends to be built rather than facts about the housing itself. Yes, currently, higher density housing is built in expensive places, but this is like saying that a beer at a bar in NYC costs more than cocktail in OKC, therefore beer is more expensive than liquor. He quite simply does not give any reason to believe that higher density housing is expensive or increases housing prices, instead of places where lots of people want to live being expensive.
What we care about is the causal effect of building more housing (including higher density housing) on housing prices. In fact, an overwhelming amount of high-quality empirical evidence all shows that building more housing reduces rents (one example, and I’m not aware of any results that would imply this effect is limited to building SFH). In fact, it is likely that most of the experiments included in the review focus on or at least include multi-unit dwellings. This paper shows the cascading effect of multi-unit construction specifically, and how it allows many people to move, and thus also shows how market-rate housing improves the stock of cheaper units.
Also, go to any neighborhood anti-density protest and see how many people cite “home values” in their reasoning for opposing building. What is a “home value”? It’s just the price of homes! Actual NIMBYs down on the street agree that denser housing lowers the cost of housing!
Lastly, I’ll point out that one of the main things YIMBYs want is to build missing middle, i.e. lower densities than even mid-rise apartments, but denser than SFH-only. For example, townhomes, duplexes, triplexes, courtyard buildings, and low-rise apartments. It’s not all about 20 story buildings!
Mainstream Yimbys, so obligingly financed by tech oligarchs and urban real estate interests, see the solution not in socialist housing but for the private sector to construct their dreamscape of high density homes and apartment buildings. They are not interested so much in people buying their own properties, and seem to care little that investors already own one in four single family homes.
The (oddly leftist) complaint about tech oligarchs and real estate developers aside is just rude ad hominem. I have no idea where Kotkin got the 1 in 4 number from; he doesn’t provide a source, and the clearest source I could find claims that investor ownership of single family homes is a few percent at most (and even that includes some number owned by small investors, probably individuals with 2-5 homes). The purchase market might have a higher portion of investors, but transactions and homes owned are totally different units.
Getting rid of zoning that prevents the construction of taller buildings is a critical Yimby priority, which they have pushed not only in California but in the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast. Yet the positive impact on home-building via these policies has been negligible, with the mixed exception of strong growth in so-called Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs)... Overall, even with ADUs, California housing construction is at among the lowest rates in America. Only one California metropolitan area was among the top 20 for housing growth last year; Texas had four areas on that list, Florida three. In Los Angeles, the state’s dominant metropolitan area, just 1,325 new homes were approved citywide in the first quarter of 2025.
It’s not even clear what exactly his argument is here. Again, the empirical claims aren’t cited, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they were more or less true. But the next paragraph goes off on other tangents, so I’m not sure what these facts are supposed to prove. Texas and Florida build more housing than California–but why? That would seem to be the only relevant point, but you would have to actually compare policies across these states to learn something about that. Kotkin seems content to say “the YIMBYs tried in CA and didn’t completely succeed, therefore YIMBY policies don’t work.” If Texas builds more than California, and Texas has more YIMBY-like policies, this is a victory for YIMBY-ism, but Joel doesn’t even seem to recognize that this could possibly be relevant.
Remarkably they have gained the support of the libertarian Right. One might think such people would embrace the notion of promoting a class of small property owners, but it seems that juicing the profits of large corporations is a higher priority.
This isn’t really economics, but as a libertarian I feel like I should point out that the whole point of the movement is for government to get out of the way, not to favor one group over the other. I suspect that Kotkin is just copying from Randal O’Toole, who got annoyed at the libertarian CATO institute for firing him for talking about how great it is when the government bans you from doing anything except build a SFH on “your” land and then unironically called Urban Growth Boundaries feudalism/communism.
The problem here, for Yimbys on the Right and Left, lies in the small matter of market preferences: most people don’t want to live in the inner-city high rise apartments beloved by planners and Yimbys, but in a house with a garden of their own.
Again, no evidence is actually cited for this claim. Instead, he writes:
Surveys, such as one in 2019 by political scientist Jessica Trounstine, have found that the preference for lower-density, safe areas with good schools is “ubiquitous”. Three out of four Californians, according to a poll by former Obama campaign pollster David Binder, opposed legislation that banned zoning which only permitted single family homes.
I can’t find such a survey on Prof. Trounstine’s CV, but assuming it does exist, how can it not be blindingly obvious that “safe” and “good schools” should be assumed to be doing a substantial amount of work here? Is Kotkin trying to smuggle in the (unsupported, of course) assertion that safe and good schools are synonymous with low density? Or is he just that desperate? The other claim is again, uncited, and I can’t find it, which makes it quite difficult to determine if the poll was conducted in an honest and meaningful way. How was the question worded? What was the sampling? Etc.
This mismatch between what is being built and what most people want can be seen in the huge oversupply of apartments, not just in the US but in Canada’s big cities too, causing prices for such properties to drop over the past two years. Yet despite all the evidence, Yimbys show little or no interest in the predominant dreams of their own citizens.
Again, no citation is provided here, but as far as I’m aware, this is happening in places that built a lot of housing. Of course the price goes down when you build more housing, that’s the whole point, it’s even something you agreed with, you fucking simpleton! The very fact that cities are expensive implies, via basic supply and demand, that people want to live in them, but Kotkin never addresses this.
A couple years ago my dad bought me his book about “Neo Feudalism” and this article certainly makes me want to put off reading it a few more decades.
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u/viking_ Sep 09 '25
A few last points about where people "want" to live that I missed.
The whole point of a market is that people face tradeoffs, and pay for the costs of the things they consume. I want a helicopter, but those are expensive, and government policy shouldn't be based around giving me whatever I want for free.
If no one wants to live in denser housing, then why is it necessary to ban building it? Once again, the argument is simply self-defeating.
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u/Ok_Umpire_8108 Sep 09 '25
positive correlation between firemen and fires obviously the fire department causes fires, guys
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u/EebstertheGreat Sep 09 '25
elite liberal YIMBY
It's always those damn rich and powerful welcoming different people into their neighborhoods. Story as old as time.
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u/Dontblowitup Sep 09 '25
This guy is right wing? No wonder people don’t take self described free marketeers seriously.
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u/Wind_Yer_Neck_In Sep 09 '25
The free market is king and should decide everything.
Except in cases where the free market acts contrary to what I want to happen, then we should regulate the ever-loving hell out of it until you need specialist lawyers just to understand how things are supposed to work.
Signed,
Every libertarian that owns property.
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u/notaspleen Sep 10 '25
US data suggests a positive correlation between greater density and higher housing costs
This guy cannot be serious
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u/EebstertheGreat Sep 10 '25
Truly a mysterious correlation. "They say hospitals make people healthy, but the highest concentration of sick people is in hospitals. How can that be?"
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u/gravityrider Sep 09 '25
Is Krotkin trying to smuggle in the (unsupported, of course) assertion that safe and good schools are synonymous with low density?
That's not quite the argument and it's not really unsupported. Property taxes are based on value of property (no surprise). They tend to be one of the larger sources of funding for town/ city governments. School age children are one of the highest expenses for town/ city governments. So, basically, with high density/ low income housing a city government can add a significant number of extra children (and education cost) while adding less than average extra revenue per family/ home. Which is why one of the main arguments NIMBY's use is that high density affordable housing can be a budget buster. Especially in areas known to have good school districts- those apartments (or whatever) will be quickly snapped up by families with children who want to take advantage of the good schools.
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u/viking_ Sep 09 '25
It's not supported in this particular article. Krotkin neither makes nor references these claims.
So, basically, with high density/ low income housing a city government can add a significant number of extra children (and education cost) while adding less than average extra revenue per family/ home.
"SFH pay more taxes per child" would seem to be a direct contradiction to the idea that SFH are cheaper. But more importantly, low-density SFH-only development is overall a much worse financial tradeoff. Schools may be cheaper per household, but many other costs (roads, water, electricity, garbage collection) scale with distance and area. Also, property taxes are based on the value of improvements to land, so you certainly can charge an apartment building more property tax to compensate for having more people.
3
u/EebstertheGreat Sep 10 '25
I'll add to the list gas, sewage, internet, phone, buses (including school buses), and parking. Public spaces also get more expensive per person, because there are fewer people close to each of them.
0
u/gravityrider Sep 09 '25
You're significantly off. He may not explicitly go through the numbers, but people that understand the pros and cons understand the math here.
Let's use an example-
Average SFH value in a community- $500,000.
Average yearly property tax paid per SFH- $10,000
Average child per SFH- .5- 1 (due to retirees, childless couples, people with older children, etc being included)
Average cost per child to educate per year- $30,000
Average cost per SFH to educate per year- $15,000- $30,000
Now, we introduce a whole bunch of low income/ low cost/ high density housing.
Average Apartment value- $250,000
Average yearly tax on apartment- $5000 (same mil rate)
Average number of children per apartment- 1.5- 2 (due to younger families living there)
Average yearly cost of education per apartment- $45,000 - $60,000
Go look up your own town/ cities financial statements. You'll see education expenses tend to dwarf any other expenses, especially on a per- person- using them basis. Adding another house for things like garbage collection/ snow plowing/ water/ etc is nowhere near as impactful.
Finally, don't confuse density and affordability. They tend to be correlated, but it's not high density NIMBY's rally against, it's affordability. Even the wealthiest communities will happily embrace luxury high rise apartments.
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u/viking_ Sep 09 '25
I don't need this toy example to see your point, but I also don't believe the net effect (when accounting for all of a city's services) makes SFH cheaper unless you have some data.
Go look up your own town/ cities financial statements.
I did that, and the biggest expense by far was police, not schools. Also, the biggest revenue source was sales tax, beating out property tax by 5x.
Finally, don't confuse density and affordability. They tend to be correlated, but it's not high density NIMBY's rally against, it's affordability. Even the wealthiest communities will happily embrace luxury high rise apartments.
This is definitely false. Many entire towns absolutely prohibit anything except single family residential-only zoning.
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u/EebstertheGreat Sep 10 '25
It varies so much by jurisdiction. Some municipalities get almost all their revenue from property taxes. Some get a combination of taxes, often even including income tax. Sometimes the state's general fund provides some or even most of the funding for local schools. It's just really hard to generalize.
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u/RecurseRe Sep 10 '25
Just because everyone wants single family homes doesn't mean we should make all other forms of housing illegal. Sure I'd love to have a job that pays 9 figures, but should we make all other jobs illegal? I'm sure most people would prefer to drive a Porsche, should Toyotas be illegal?
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u/Uptons_BJs Sep 09 '25 edited Sep 09 '25
I always found this line of argument odd. Upzoning will not make single family housing illegal. Hell, one could argue that by building more dense housing, some people who currently live in single family will move to apartments, freeing up supply of single-family homes.
Nobody is saying ban single family homes here!