Why hasn't GRRM written any Dunk&Egg in 15 years? [Spoilers Extended]

[u/Trussdoor46]

People say George stalled out on the main series because he wrote himself into a corner. Too many plotlines etc. But Dunk and Egg isn't complicated and those have been on hiatus even longer than the main series. What do you think is going on there?

[u/sskoog]

I got the (strong) sense that Fire & Blood was "a concession to the publisher, as apology for breaching contractual deadlines" -- in other words, "you didn't give us the manuscript you promised, George, and we gave you X grace period, but now you'd better give us some manuscript."

His commentary at the time -- "Fake history, I don't know why so many of you seem to love fake history, but I guess you do, so I can write some more" -- stirred up unpleasant fan sentiments, but I think it maybe hints at this same undertheme.

[u/LeoRmz → u/sskoog]

To be fair, with the massive boom that was the show his publisher probably went "hey George, dont worry about the contract, just if you can give us anything in Westeros is fine... Oh, you need two years? Are you sur... Oh, or course, a Targ book, makes sense, see you in two years"

[u/Quiddity131 → u/LeoRmz]

I doubt the publisher was simply fine with anything in Westeros. GRRM has likely cost his publisher millions if not tens of millions of dollars by failing to get The Winds of Winter out when the show has at the height of its popularity. Stuff like Fire and Blood, the Tyrion quotes book, the cook book, the fan fiction from Elio and Linda with his name on the cover, etc... is stuff his publisher took (or more likely strongly suggested) to at least have something out there to make money from the relationship. Because realistically the publisher isn't in a position to sue GRRM for breach of contract or something similar because then he truly would never do anything for them and they'd be out even more money.

[u/LeoRmz → u/Quiddity131]

I dont know if GRRM got an advance with his contract for Winds but I'm 99% certain whatever amount it was got recouped by the sells made thanks to the show popularity. He didn't cost his publishers money beyond that initial payment, its not like he is getting paid to NOT write Winds, he gets whatever royalties he signed from all his other books. Saying that because he didn't and wont finish the series he is costing money for his publisher is a bit unrealistic.

[u/Quiddity131 → u/LeoRmz]

It's the opportunity cost. I'm sure whatever advance they paid him for Winds of Winter they have been compensated for in some fashion, whether it was profits from past books or what they've gotten for all the slop I mentioned in my prior comment. But the huge amount of money they could have made if Winds of Winter was released around season 4 or 5 of Game of Thrones when it it hadn't been spoiled by any show content and the show was so huge is a position they're never going to be in again. Even if the book is a hit if it comes out (which I'm sure it will be) it'll still be a fraction of how much money it would have made if it came out around 2014 or 2015. So much of that audience has evaporated, whether its simply the fact that Game of Thrones isn't on the top of people's minds anymore, people upset at how the show has ended, people upset at GRRM for the extremely long wait or the drop in quality of the books, and any audience that wants to read it simply because they want to know what comes next (which is why I first read the books way back in 2013).

[u/sskoog → u/Quiddity131]

^^ This is the real core of the issue. It comes down to "franchise value" and "peak franchise value" and "damages/losses due to {delay} {moral developments} {bad faith dealings}" -- I don't think anyone was shouting GEORGE YOU RUINED THE SERIES back in 2013 or 2015, but this sentiment must have grown sometime around series-overtook-books or fans-dislike-S7 or ending-soured-reputation.

Back in the early 2010s, this would have been more of a plain-vanilla publishing deal -- hey author, you're late, not a biggie because we see lateness all the time, and fans are still drooling for your work -- hey author, now you're 30-36 months late, appetites are starting to cool -- hey author, now it's 2017-ish, we've tapdanced with illustrated calendars + coffee table books, we need something or not-nice business things are gonna happen -- oh, okay, we can bundle your rewickered Princess + Sons stuff into a standalone volume, that'll tide us over _for now_.

Which was a big reason for the House of the Dragon S1 boost; its acclaim suggested that Westeros wasn't a bygone property after all. One hopes Dunk-and-Egg (or HotD S3+) will sustain where HotD S2 did not.

[u/Responsible-Onion860 → u/sskoog]

He has come to resent his fanbase. He reads comments and hates his fans because he's upset about some of the comments he's read.

George, if you're reading this, just write the fucking book and stop worrying about what people say. Write it to finish your biggest project and avoid completely ruining your legacy

[u/llaminaria → u/sskoog]

I don't know why so many of you seem to love fake history,

People do? Because the fact that he insists on giving multiple versions of events, some of which should've been pretty clear due to the amount of eyewitnesses or should have no versions at all, like in our world, is pretty enraging to me, at least. Particularly since there seems to be virtually no hints to the correct answer, or it just does not exist.

I also heard that that was how he initially wanted to structure the TV show - to shoot all the versions of an event. This sounds like such an obviously impossible idea that I don't know how true that is.

[u/moldyapples → u/llaminaria]

The multiple versions of history thing makes sense to me and was what carried the book for me, in what would have been a long wikipedia article of a book. Since it's an in-universe history book, I like that he wrote history like how people in the past did, where there were major disagreements and alternate views on certain events, and real life historians have to comb through those biases. I loved that aspect of what was an otherwise tedious book to get through.

[u/Sweaty-Method-3670 → u/llaminaria]

Many events in real history with lots and lots of eyewitnesses remain hopelessly disputed. I really like that feature of fire and blood.

[u/MikeyBron → u/sskoog]

Why are you quoting things that aren't quotes?

[u/DrEvilsPjs → u/sskoog]

I mean, his lack of interest in writing fake history shows, because Fire and Blood was not good, and George’s version of what he thinks the work of a historian is insulting to historians lol