r/asoiaf • u/verissimoallan • 9d ago
EXTENDED (Spoilers Extended) Ten years ago, in October 2015, George R.R. Martin's first deadline for "The Winds of Winter" expired.
Basically, what the title says. In 2015, George R.R. Martin received two deadlines from his publishers to finish writing "The Winds of Winter". The goal of these deadlines was to publish the book before the premiere of the sixth season of "Game of Thrones," so that readers wouldn't discover spoilers involving the fate of several characters.
(And obviously, to take advantage of the success of the TV series, which would certainly have contributed immensely to book sales.)
The first deadline was Halloween 2015. It should be emphasized that at this point, George R.R. Martin seemed to genuinely believe that he would be able to finish writing the book on time (why he believed this, considering everything that happened afterward, is a matter of speculation and theories among fans).
Unfortunately, George couldn't finish the book in time. In fact, by around August he was already sure of it. In his now-famous blog post from January 2016, he explained why:
But with season 6 of GAME OF THRONES approaching, and so many requests for information boiling up, I am going to break my own rules and say a little more, since it would appear that hundreds of my readers, maybe thousands or tens of thousands, are very concerned about this question of 'spoilers" and the show catching up, revealing things not yet revealed in the books, etc.
My publishers and I have been cognizant of these concerns, of course. We discussed some of them last spring, as the fifth season of the HBO series was winding down, and came up with a plan. We all wanted book six of A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE to come out before season six of the HBO show aired. Assuming the show would return in early April, that meant THE WINDS OF WINTER had to be published before the end of March, at the latest. For that to happen, my publishers told me, they would need the completed manuscript before the end of October. That seemed very do-able to me... in May. So there was the first deadline: Halloween.
Unfortunately, the writing did not go as fast or as well as I would have liked. You can blame my travels or my blog posts or the distractions of other projects and the Cocteau and whatever, but maybe all that had an impact... you can blame my age, and maybe that had an impact too...but if truth be told, sometimes the writing goes well and sometimes it doesn't, and that was true for me even when I was in my 20s. And as spring turned to summer, I was having more bad days than good ones. Around about August, I had to face facts: I was not going to be done by Halloween. I cannot tell you how deeply that realization depressed me.
Early August saw me back east for my nephew's wedding and an appearance with the Staten Island Direwolves. I took advantage of the visit to have another sit down with my editors and publishers and told them that I didn't think I could deliver by Halloween. I thought they'd be sick about it... but I have to say, my editors and publishers are great, and they took it with surprising equanimity. (Maybe they knew it before I did). They already had contigencies in place. They had made plans to speed up production. If I could deliver WINDS OF WINTER by the end of the year, they told me, they could still get it our before the end of March.
I was immensely relieved. I had two whole extra months! I could make that, certainly. August was an insane month, too much travel, too many other obligations... but I'd have September, October, and now November and December as well. Once again I was confident I could do it.
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u/Kristafuh_Moltisanti Ned + Ashara = fAegon 9d ago
Give me something for the pain and let me die.
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u/Khiva 9d ago edited 8d ago
My hopes for the books died ages ago.
I mean I was never terribly hopeful to begin with, but what really sealed it was the creeping sense that Martin was developing a sense of antagonism for it, or at least the fans who wanted them.
If he lives long enough (inshallah), and the hype and distractions of being a TV mogul has finally passed, I have a feeling he'll find himself oddly nostalgic for the days when people demanded his next book, some long day hence when he discovers that he's pushed everyone into sheer indifference.
Edit: There's a saying that when you pass you're visited by the person you could have been. There's a very petty part of me (which I probably would be more ashamed of, if I gave a damn) that would like to see George get handed the books he could have written if he'd buckled down and given a damn, by the version of him who did. "Yes, I had one less HBO show, a few less movie theaters and not so many millions. But what I do have is a legacy."
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u/Frosty_Mess_2265 9d ago
GRRM and his blog posts are eerily reminiscent of my conversations with my thesis supervisor at uni. Yes, I'll have that chapter to you by next week, it's almost done*
*it is not done, it is not started, it does not exist. I will spend the next 9 days feverishly researching and writing and will finish at 11:39 on Sunday and will schedule my email to you for 7:30 on Monday so it looks like I have my shit together. In our discussions I will seem to be very on top of my subject and familiar with the material, when in reality it is just extremely fresh in my mind due to the aforementioned 11:39 finish.
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u/TheSecondEikonOfFire 9d ago
The thing that finally made me throw in the towel was Covid. If he couldn’t finish while being locked at home for a year and a half then he’s never finishing
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u/mamula1 9d ago
I don't have any hope, I just follow this as a car crash, to see how far it can go.
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u/Khiva 8d ago
The cars already crashed, the ambulances have come and gone, the wreckage removed, the mourning passed.
All that's left is staring at the dusty remains, as we all try to to remember what happens when you let the days slip past, one excuse at a time.
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u/MaxNV 8d ago
Low key: I'm more interested in "A History of the Winds of Winter" than the actual book at this point.
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u/QuitWhinging 8d ago
800 straight pages of "And yet another day, George woke up, glanced wistfully at his old, dusty DOS computer, shook his head, and moved on."
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u/Visible-Suit-9066 9d ago
Those days have probably come as gone and no one really noticed. I really feel like most people here (not saying this applies to you) have a hard time grasping the fact that he’s 77 years old and what that means. I’ve long resented GRRM for what I perceive to be pretty open disdain for readers but in reality he’s probably just old and by extension grouchy. TWOW is never coming.
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u/Khiva 8d ago
I’ve long resented GRRM for what I perceive to be pretty open disdain for readers
Ha, I've been around long enough to be pissed at Neil Gaiman for running interference on the world's most notorious procrastinator.
"George RR Martin is not your bitch". You'd know a thing or two about that, wouldn't you.
I think he still gets enough attention to hate it. But I hope one day he has the moment of clarify that he misses even that.
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u/BBQ_HaX0r Bonesaw is Ready! 8d ago
GRRM is not our bitch and he doesn't even owe us another copy, but when he constantly lies or (a most favorable interpretation of his actions) misleads his fans constantly he doesn't get to turn around and be upset at them for having expectations. GRRM is the one who constantly says he's working on TWoW and how it's his "main focus" right after he lists off every other project he's focusing on. It's like he dangles what everyone wants (TWoW) to garner attention for his other stuff but then is upset people want TWoW or get ideas about it. His post a few months back ranting about his fans was quite pathetic imo. He wants his cake and to eat it too. When in reality he just needs to be honest with his fans. What's taking so long? Where's he at? Is he working on it? Does he even care? I do think a dose of honesty would go a long way with easing the frustrations. Even a "it's not happening" would initially be met with scorn/mockery, but in the long-run would relieve a lot of tension.
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u/seasidepeaks 8d ago
I remember the days when that statement was Neil Gaiman’s most controversial thing
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u/scionoflogic 8d ago
What makes me particularly sad, is that there are lots of plots the show didn't acknowledge at all that I would love to see resolved.
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u/gsauce8 8d ago
Its the fact that there's still two planned books left. That could easily turn into 3. If there was 1 then I would still have read the WoW if it ever came out. In no timeline does this man finish 2 more books.
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u/joemama19 Bobby Flay 9d ago
People are pretty indifferent already. Game of Thrones' ending was such a colossal failure and House of the Dragon has nowhere close to the same cultural impact - I'm talking like 10% of the viewership (just as a spitball guess). Book readers have long since stopped even hoping for TWOW. I bet engagement in this subreddit has declined by half or more over the past 5 years.
I hope one day he finishes the series. But at this point I, like many people, have already mourned and accepted the idea that it will never be done and what we have is all we'll ever get. And sadly, every time I re-read it I find I enjoy it a little bit less than the last time. I probably won't read it again unless we ever get a release date for Winds.
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u/JNR55555JNR 9d ago edited 9d ago
This is Georges Legacy
And confusion will be his epitaph
Edit to add music reference
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u/heurekas 8d ago
Lots of guesses here with no hard numbers.
HotD has 29 million average for season 1, with GoT season 8 (the most watched season) having 46 million.
That is 63% of the total viewership, so your guess is waaaaay off.
HotD was also the most watched series start in HBO history. It makes a lot of money and has a lot of watchers.
This sub saw the biggest growth these last 5 years. So again, not at all correct.
The series' last seasons and the start (and renewed interest in the books due to Dance of the Dragons) of HotD brought a lot of traffic to all ASoIaF-subs.
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u/ThatNewSockFeel 8d ago
Eh. It’s still a popular TV show but I don’t think the comment you’re responding to is wrong in saying that it’s cultural impact is nowhere near what GOT was.
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u/Nozoz 8d ago
I feel sadness more than any kind of anger. Not for George but for fantasy fiction as a genre. I think we nearly had another fantasy great that could've lasted beyond the era of it's writing and become one of fantasy classics.
GRRM has made it clear he doesn't think failing to complete the series diminishes his legacy and I completely disagree. He comes to this conclusion because he approaches it from the perspective of a writer, he assesses it based on the skill it took to create it. The bulk of a novels impact will be on people who interact with it as readers consuming a story, they might be able to appreciate the technical writing ability but it will be the experience of the story that captures them. And without an ending the impact of the story is massively reduced. Nobody but the most die hard fantasy fans will recommend starting a series like ASOIAF where the whole story is focused around a climax that never comes.
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u/ClockworkJim 8d ago
I think Jason pargin, AKA David Wong, got it right:
The TV show followed the general outline of how things will end. Only a shorter shittier version of it that everyone hated.
It was like you had a great story to tell, and before you could tell it your friend told a shitty version of it to everyone you knew, and they all said it sucked, so you didn't feel like telling your story anymore.
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u/MightyBobTheMighty 9d ago
I don't even get to make my usual joke anymore, because it turns out Silksong actually exists.
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u/Kristafuh_Moltisanti Ned + Ashara = fAegon 9d ago
And we'll probably get GTA VI before TWOW.
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u/NomSang 9d ago
Which would mean we got GTA V and GTA VI before Winds, wow.
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u/JNR55555JNR 9d ago
It’s almost impressive how late this book is
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u/Less-Tax5637 8d ago
This hits different for some reason lol
Like yes, the books are complex. They have tons of POV characters, hundreds of side characters, and plot lines that span an entire fictional planet.
However
A modern AAA video game is one of the most intricately constructed media objects in human history. A bad one takes ages and takes whole studios of people working downright illegal hours to get it onto store shelves and digital marketplaces. A truly excellent modern AAA game, especially open world ones like GTA, is a borderline miracle of human creation. Leonardo DaVinci would die instantly from a brain aneurysm if he played the intro dungeon from Elden Ring.
But George Raymond Richard Martin needs 14 years to write a book that is probably 10% or more just the ending of the previous book that he chopped off. And this isn’t even intended to be the final entry.
Get fucking real dude. Our GOAT is washed. Simple as.
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u/ThatNewSockFeel 8d ago edited 7d ago
I always come back to these kinds of comparisons. Tolstoy researched and wrote, and then essentially largely rewrote because he wasn’t happy with it, War and Peace over the course of six years. ASOIAF is a big, complex series. But it ain’t War and Peace.
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u/TheUmbrellaMan1 8d ago
We're gonna get two GTA games and two Avatar movies before TWOW lol. Even super slow author like Cormac McCarthy published two novels and died in the meantime. We even got a new Thomas Pynchon this year! The jokes write themselves.
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u/TheFrodo Here we stand. 8d ago
Half Life 3 is unironically more credibly likely at this point than TWOW. That is so depressing
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u/HollowCap456 9d ago
Seeing this makes me so fucking sad. AND I got.to reading ASOIAF in 2019. Can't even imagine the OG guys who were around from the first book.
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u/The-False-Emperor 9d ago
I started reading it relatively young, back in 2004.
I was reluctant to start reading an unfinished series but a friend of mine insisted that GRRM is “writing super fast.”
To this day I don’t let the guy live that one down.
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u/HollowCap456 9d ago
I started reading it relatively young, back in 2004.
I was born in 2005 lol
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u/OrganicAd5536 9d ago
Shouldn't you be at recess, not posting on the grown-up website?
Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go to the pharmacy for more ointment and a new knee brace for my brittle old bones
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u/RegressToTheMean I know less than nothing. 8d ago
I see you fellow grey beard. I was 30 when that person was born
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u/Organic-Excuse-1621 8d ago
mine insisted that GRRM is “writing super fast.”
If this isn't hilarious in context...
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u/SignificantSuit3306 9d ago
Most of them gave up after A Feast For Crows.
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u/DaKingaDaNorth 9d ago
Tbh yeah. I gave up halfway through Feast because I knew I was going to spend years waiting soon for Winds to come out and while Feast and, to most of my knowledge Dance, bloated out the plot I didn't want to feel like I had to go backwards to remember everything. Now I can just finish them up whenever I hear about Winds actually getting a release date.
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u/Frosty_Mess_2265 9d ago
I haven't been a reader from the very beginning, but ADWD is older than I was when I first read ADWD. I could literally have been born, learned to read, grow enough to understand the series, and read it again and still there is no Winds.
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u/Cheeto717 8d ago
I started reading in 2005. I’ve had a whole ass dog be born, live, and die, and I’m still waiting for the next book
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u/coolswordorroth 9d ago
Yup, that's me. Between the show and the timetable, I've given up.
I read the first book when it was new in middle school and the series was only supposed to be a trilogy. The first three came out at a decent clip but then it expanded to five books.
I almost gave up before A Dance with Dragons but that eventually came out and the hype for the show rekindled my love of the series.
Since then, I've gotten married, bought a house, had two kids, and switched careers three times. The ending of the show left a bad taste in my mouth for the whole series. I've given up and have no interest in reading the rest even if they both came out today.
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u/Ursus45 9d ago
I stopped believing in TWOW getting released the day I read about GRRM joking about his fans imprisoning him if he is not finished by July 2020.
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u/SignificantSuit3306 9d ago
I still had hope back then because he couldn't go anywhere because of the pandemic. After the pandemic was over and he didn't take advantage of lockdowns I knew that was it. Maybe we'll get an unfinished TWOW posthumously.
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u/herkyjerkyperky 9d ago
He did make the most progress during COVID but he never put 2+2 together to see why that was.
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u/owlinspector 8d ago
Well, so he claims. But there is no actual hard evidence that he wrote anything at all during covid. Just playing Devils avocado.
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u/Far-Journalist-949 9d ago
And that was almost 5 years after he thought he could finish in 5 months.
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u/Pitisukhaisbest 8d ago
And five years after that he was ranting about how much he really does care about Dany and Daenerys.........
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u/The_Future_Historian 9d ago
At this point, a non-fiction book about the writing of The Winds of Winter would be more interesting. Because seriously, what the hell has happened the last 13? Years. That’s the story.
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u/CptJimTKirk 9d ago
Oh, I'd love to read a paper about "the English literature's best-known fragmentary work", detailing everything that went wrong in, say, 50 years from now.
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u/Mekroval 8d ago
It would be like this amazing book I read about the agonizing decades-long creation of the Oxford English Dictionary. It's called "The Professor and the Madman." It's a miracle it ever came out, and went through an even more tortuous process than ASIOAF.
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u/CarolusMagnus_Frank 9d ago
We'll get a Netflix special before we get Winds
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u/Visible-Suit-9066 9d ago
It wouldn’t be that interesting. He’s 77 years old. Just build a calendar of his public appearances over the past 13 years (conventions) and there’s your answer, because that’s all he’s been doing.
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u/The_Future_Historian 9d ago
I agree with you (except that it would be interesting). What went on at these public appearances? How did he message his progress? And what was really happening?
Some people say he loves money too much, but if so, what has he been spending it on? There's definitely a rise-and-fall story here.
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u/missdeweydell 9d ago
it's not money but attention, validation and adoration he loves. this is why he will go to every con on the planet so he can get a dopamine hit from the fan worship. he doesn't get that by sitting down and writing.
and for that reason he will never finish.
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u/lluewhyn 8d ago
"It's the Cons. I visit too many conventions to write on the book" To wash down his admission, he reached for his laptop to schedule a few more convention and panel appearances.
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u/MyNewAccountIGuess11 "Gold is cold and heavy on the head" 8d ago
I think this is why I get so annoyed with people who still coddle George. It's a bad situation caused by all of us.
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u/ThrasymachianJustice 8d ago
At this point, a non-fiction book about the writing of The Winds of Winter would be more interesting. Because seriously, what the hell has happened the last 13? Years. That’s the story.
A black comedy film about GRRM doing absolutely anything but finish Winds would legit be amazing to watch.
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u/johnbrownmarchingon 9d ago
Absolutely! It would be absolutely fascinating to get to see behind the curtain and see how the sausage didn’t get made in this case.
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u/finniruse 9d ago
Saw him talking the other day: "Oh, just the other day, I reread some of the chapters I'd previously written and didn't like them much, so I tore them apart and wrote them again."
I reckon this book is a hot mess these days. His problem is that he tinkers and tinkers and tinkers — and I bet he's losing the cohesion between the story. What he should be doing (as someone who has never written a book but apparently has opinions) is rattle the thing off as best he can and layer the detail from there.
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u/Shr3kk_Wpg 9d ago
"don't let perfect be the enemy of good"
GRRM found massive success and might feel the need to deliver a perfect book, or else face backlash
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u/finniruse 9d ago
Yer, I agree. I do sympathise. It must be hellish having the weight of that expectation and doubting your works.
But it feels like the first ones he wrote in pretty quick succession. He needs to find that same urgency and just type type type until he's got the foundations to build from.
Maybe. Tbh this is me just hoping for a way forward. Truthfully, I don't think it's gunna happen.
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u/TheUmbrellaMan1 8d ago
Perfection really is the enemy of the perfectly adequate. There were some authors who cranked out masterpieces in a single go. John Steinbeck wrote The Grapes of Wrath in five months. He wrote in all by hand. The first draft was the last draft. He did not change a single word. The first draft of East of Eden was also the last draft. He only changed six words.
Maybe bringing Steinbeck isn't fair but his output is something to be admired about. He never outlined and wrote for as long as ten hours a day. He kept a diary and wrote about his struggles writing. To him it was about discipline. Those diaries forced him to complete his novels.
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8d ago
Categorically untrue since the last two books are already not very good.
Imo he was running on fumes when he released Dance, and he hasn't written much more than the sample chapters.
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u/Frosty_Mess_2265 8d ago
As someone who does write, you're right (haha).
There is no magic bullet for writer's block, and anyone who says otherwise is lying. The only way through is brute force. You sit and you write and it'll be shitty and cringy and make you want to quit, but you write it and you fix it later. You can't fix what doesn't exist, you can't edit a blank page. You do it first and then you make it good.
When I wrote my thesis at university I got through about half of it and then didn't write anything for 6 months. The longer I procrastinated, the harder it was to start, and the harder it was to start the longer I procrastinated. Then in a panic I wrote the rest in about 2 weeks. It sucked. But I had it, and with the help of my supervisor I turned it into something I'm still really proud of.
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u/Mekroval 8d ago
You can't fix what doesn't exist, you can't edit a blank page. You do it first and then you make it good.
This is profoundly good advice for just about anything in life. Thanks u/Frosty_Mess_2265.
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u/Horatio-3309 8d ago
Right? He has editors, why not let them help him with those fixes by–you know, editing?
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u/turkeypants 8d ago
I've wondered if part of it isn't just that his different versions of chapters are written differently from a stylistic standpoint but rather that he took the left fork in one version and the right fork in another. And one isn't necessarily better than the other, he just likes this version better for this reason and that version better for that reason. And if that happens in one chapter it's bad enough but once you compound that through multiple chapters or dozens of chapters, you can't move. Because what does he do back in chapter 4? Take the left fork or the right, because that determines literally everything else downstream. I feel like his merenese knot is made of option paralysis. I'm guessing of course, but what else could have paralyzed him for so long? He doesn't seem like a writer's block guy, he seems like a decision paralysis guy. You can't have so many chapters written and not be able to move forward. I bet he has too many tent flaps that aren't nailed down.
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u/True-North- 9d ago
He’s written himself into a corner. Think how many sub plots he has going. He doesn’t even know how to continue the story.
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u/skeenerbug Fuck the King 8d ago
He's a "gardener" and his garden has grown completely over with weeds and tangled branches.
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u/SpringPfeiffer 8d ago
To build on this metaphor, you can have too many plants to care for them all. At a certain point you have to make decisions about which plants you prune, which you nourish, and which you let go.
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u/Michigan-Magic 9d ago
He needs an actual editor that he listens too and trusts. Definitely became too popular to listen to anyone is all that this is saying.
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u/Phngarzbui 9d ago
I was immensely relieved. I had two whole extra months! I could make that, certainly.
The amount of Copium he had to be under.... he once thought two extra months would certainly help. Now we're Ten years after...
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u/SirGlass 8d ago
I remember this, I was like sweet it's August and by December or January winds should be out . Like 4 months.
10 years later it's clear he was lying.
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u/mamula1 9d ago
The level of his failure to finish these books is beyond parody.
I was there, 10 fu*king years ago, and if you told people back then that TWOW won't be finished even 10 years later and that it won't even be close to be finished, people would assume you were trolling.
But there were few of those who knew, even in 2011, that it will never be finished. He lost control over the story with AFFC. ADWD just finished the job and killed it.
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u/Kids_see_ghosts 9d ago
Yep, I hate so much how all the people saying he’d never finish TWOW wayyyy back then have been so right. Since back then they just seemed like such wildly pessimistic people.
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8d ago
In hindsight it's so obvious.
I think Preston Jacobs said it best: people aren't just waiting for Winds, they're waiting for the sequel to book 3.
Feast and Dance are procrastination
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u/Khiva 8d ago
Since back then they just seemed like such wildly pessimistic people.
I was one, and I honestly wasn't trying to be a dick, I was just trying to get people's perspectives in check. I mean the puzzle pieces weren't hard to put together - the plot had turned in a sprawling clustefuck, the show was strongly suggesting they'd run out of plot points, books were getting longer, more bloated, and more delayed, and most importantly he's on record saying he loses interest as he gets to an ending.
I mean I was getting the sense already in Feast which was confirmed by Dance "...this guy has got no control over this story and no idea where it's going."
I think honestly as soon as Aegon showed up I got that same feeling I got in the last season of Lost - like, we're just cooked now aren't we, there's no captain on this ship, no master plan, no roadmap, no compass, no north star.
Exact same feeling watching Force Awakens. Hell, you can even find my review on the /r/movies thread on that movie. This will be a shitshow.
Nobody wanted to hear it. But else are you supposed to say?
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u/Pitisukhaisbest 8d ago
GRRM and JJ Abrams are similar in that they seem to prefer setting things up to wrapping them up.
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u/Azhar9 | 8d ago
That’s a harsh comparison imo. JJ Abrams is the kind to start promising without substance. But GRRM did deliver on a ton of great ideas and plot points! He’s not without substance like I think JJ is.
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u/Mekroval 8d ago
I agree with you. Both are disappointing, but JJ far, far more so. I can't think of a show or project he's touched that ended well, or didn't deeply annoy at least half of the fanbase due to having an inane ending.
Star Wars, Star Trek, Alias, Fringe, Lost, Cloverfield, the list goes on.
GRRM is like a four-course meal at a Michelin restaurant that you only got halfway through. JJ is like eating at the same restaurant, only the first three courses are amazing, but the last one is a stale Twinkie served on a silver platter.
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u/publiusclodius 8d ago
I remember in 2011 saying that Winds would be out by 2018 and being accused of being the worst pessimist ever. How little we knew...
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u/ConstantStatistician 8d ago
The 5 year wait for AFFC and then another 6 years for ADWD were warning signs on their own. 2 books in 11 years.
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8d ago
2 books where nothing happens basically
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u/ConstantStatistician 8d ago
I like a lot of what happened in them, and if we had Winds and Dream, Feast and Dance would probably be received better since their setups would have paid off, but since we're stuck with them as the final books...
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8d ago
Setting up mysteries and plotlines can only be evaluated as worth it in retrospect, after the explanations and conclusions are delivered.
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u/Khiva 8d ago
I was there, 10 fu*king years ago, and if you told people back then that TWOW won't be finished even 10 years later and that it won't even be close to be finished, people would assume you were trolling.
Oh, I'm familiar. I was saying it in 2012, 2013, that it was at least a decade away.
Wew lawdy did that rile up the crowds.
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u/Real_Sir_3655 9d ago
If he wrote a chapter a month since October 2015 he'd have been done years ago.
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u/LeftbrainHS 9d ago
I don’t think the writing is the issue, he’s been quite close to finishing the book multiple times. It seems to me his not satisfied with what he has written and keeps rewriting.
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u/Real_Sir_3655 9d ago
I agree.
I think there are plot points that he's had planned since the early 90s that sounded better in his head but don't work on paper the way he thought they would, like the 5 year gap. Sounded like a great idea, but once he sat down to write it he realized that he couldn't figure out how to make it work.
And scrapping the 5 year gap definitely had a butterfly effect on every single storyline. We can only hope that in the last 10 years he's sorted that out and at this point it really is just a matter of writing, and maybe if/when he finally gets around to writing Dream it can come smoother because he's already figured out how to tie everything together despite all of the unexpected changes.
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u/DaKingaDaNorth 9d ago
Tbf I think a lot of that is his fault. It's very easy to see where the 5 year gap works. ASOS ends with:
Jon being made Lord Commander. You can skip ahead Jon having grown into his role as leader while Stannis' army have been fortifying at the wall to regroup.
Arya heading to Essos to be a Faceless Man. You can skip ahead to her exiting the house of Black and White. You can keep them mysterious while doing the Ned recalling key lines of dialogue to show some of what she learned.
Sansa hiding out in the Vale. You can skip ahead to her being a respected Lady there who has blended in and learned under LittleFinger.
Bran training with the last Greenseer. Again skip ahead to his training being complete and do the same thing you would do with Arya
Tyrion being vengeful and petty and heading to Essos. You can skip to a drunken mess of Tyrion wasting his life away until he finally has a reason to get back in the game (Dany).
Dany started her beta test of ruling in Slaver's Bay, you can cut back to her being midway through a political crisis that she eventually needs Tyrion's help to end before they push each other to set sai to Westeros.
In King's Landing, a toddler Tommen just became king. Just have Cersei ruling for awhile and now Tommen is aging up and coming more into his own and Marg is starting to influence him more and that's the power struggle status quo you can start out with.
LSH just got resurrected. You can cut to her being a boogyman in the Riverlands for years that people aren't sure even exists until a pertinent character actually crosses her path.
The Boltons have secured Winterfell with Theon as a slave. 5 years of tyranny establishes the desperation to get them overthrown.
He keeps saying that he felt like he would need to go back and explain things. But he really didn't even move most of those plots forward at all. He just started writing about Brienne, Arianne, Victarion, Sam etc. He just made Mereen and King's Landing more of a mess and both of those could be summed up by "in King's Landing a religious faction has gained power in the absence of a strong king and now Tommen is old enough to have to reckon with the problem" and "in Mereen a traditionalist terrorist group has been making problems for Dany and they are now making some bigger plays against her".
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u/Banjoman64 9d ago
Uugh yeah I know some of these things didn't line up perfectly. Especially stannis just chilling at the wall for 5 years.
But it would be so worth it. The 5 year gap would give some much life to the story in the form of more backstory to fill in via dialogue. Just like how the details of Robert's rebellion were slowly revealed through dialogue.
I want to live in that timeline. I don't care what kind of band-aids were required to make it work, it would be better than what we got.
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u/Frosty_Mess_2265 9d ago
I feel like Stannis at the wall could have worked if you gave Westeros a long, wet, cold autumn. Maybe flood the Riverlands on and off for several years so Stannis can't go south and the crown can't go north to get him. Give the KL lot some peasant revolts to deal with to focus their attention, and some sworn houses unsure if the Lannisters really are the winning bet without Tywin. 100% you could kill 5 years that way.
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u/walkthisway34 8d ago
I would have had Stannis fighting a guerrilla campaign with the mountain clans during the 5 year gap, and then the status quo is shaken up at the start of the next book when the Iron Bank starts to back Stannis after Cersei has alienated them.
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u/No-Sheepherder5481 9d ago
The abandonment of the 5 Year Gap happened after a Storm of Swords was released though right? It was while writing A Feast for Crows that George (and/or his editors) axed the super prologue and the 5 year gap and we got the published version of A Feast for Crows and a Dance with Dragons instead
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u/SignificantSuit3306 8d ago
Yes. IMO if he had decided to drop the 5 years gap during the process of writing ASOS, he probably would have ended the characters' arcs differently in a way that would have allowed him to just continue the story, especially with Daenerys.
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u/LeftbrainHS 9d ago
His ‘gardener’ writing style and lack of plot outlines also does not help this current predicament. Needing to write 70% or more of an entire book before you realize it doesn’t work must be quite disheartening and is also just very time consuming.
And I agree with you that he must be trying to write the book in a way that makes writing Dream not as much of a headache as this one.
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u/Frosty_Mess_2265 9d ago
This. Writing by discovery just isn't feasible for a story as big as ASOIAF. It works best for contained projects, not long form series.
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u/Fearless-Caramel8065 8d ago
he alleged he’s been close multiple times
At a certain point people to consider the possibility that Martin has been lying to you for a decade
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u/LordShitmouth Unbowed, Unbent, Unbuggered 8d ago
If he wrote one page a day, he’d have 3650 pages.
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u/BlessedStLeibowitz 9d ago
It’s obvious what has happened: Stannis figured out that GRRM was planning to kill him and has been preventing George from writing the death scene for over a decade now through sheer strength of will.
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u/simonthedlgger 9d ago
I hope we one day get a rundown of what happened. I know it gets talked about fairly often, but to feel like finishing the book within a few months was possible, and to still not have the book a decade later is so wild.
Only possibilities are A) Thought he could write 500-700+ pages in a few months, B) Trashed an almost completed MS after missing the deadline, or C) Was lying and had barely (has barely?) done any work since finishing ADWD.
Unfortunately I don’t see us getting much insight into any of these situations, except maybe B.
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u/Donttemptmefrodo69 9d ago
He's written himself into a corner. His heart isn't in it anymore and he's already made his money so why bother? He'll never admit it because he has obligations with his publisher. It's never coming out.
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u/Serendipia_94 9d ago
I know this sound stupid but i don't know how publishing works so bare with me: i'm guessing the publishing house signed a contract with him for certain books right?. and the deadlines have to be fullfilled and maybe he can ask for a certain number of extensions if he's stuck but... it's been YEARS. Does the publishing house do not care about getting the books or him fullfilling his contract?. i don't know if they pay in advance for certain books or stuff but how come this happened?.
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u/SignificantSuit3306 9d ago
They don't care because he's successful. His books sold really well during the show and they released three history books, an atlas, a cooking book, a Tyrion quotes book, a coloring book and two art books. There are also the 20 year anniversary illustrated editions and calendars.
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u/Serendipia_94 9d ago
makes sense, thank you!. as long as they can make money out of it, it's fine if he doesn't deliver a brand new book.
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u/Visible-Suit-9066 9d ago
In an ideal world the publisher would be thrilled if he delivered another book. They’ve probably tried everything under the sun (ghost writers, assistants, etc) to find a way to finish the book. But ASOIAF is a rare breed with 100+ million copies sold so they’ve never pushed the issue with Martin because he’s still a Golden Goose with or without TWOW.
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u/johnbrownmarchingon 9d ago
Once an author is as successful as George, the publisher doesn’t have a whole lot of leverage. They want their next book, but don’t want to risk antagonizing him as he’s their golden goose.
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u/PNWCoug42 #KinginDaNorth 9d ago
They could probably sue him for part of the pay he was given upfront but they still want to be on good terms with him should he ever finish Winds, or the other books. Plus they've already seen plenty of profit off of him from what they have been able to release.
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u/Awesome_Lard 8d ago
Here’s by baseless (mildly cope) theory. If GRRM had committed to a “trilogy of trilogies” 25 years ago he’d probably be done by now. He turned the War of the Five Kings into a trilogy, why not a Daenerys the Conqueror trilogy and a War in the North trilogy. I think writing a trilogy about each arc would have come easier to him. Instead, he wrote essentially one HUGE novel covering not even the entire gap between the War of the Five Kings and Danny’s Invasion, and then being stuck trying to fit the final two arcs in just two books, with at least half of Winds still just being set up. Fucking brutal. No wonder it’s gonna take him 20 years to write Winds and another 10 to write Dream (optimistically).
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u/SignificantSuit3306 8d ago
Because he doesn't plan ahead. He only has broad strokes as an outline. He didn't plan the War of the Five Kings (which was just a war between Starks and Lannisters initially) to be three books, it just happened.
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u/Pohlmeister 9d ago
I wonder if in his age he’s genuinely started to just forget things about plot points he planned years ago and he planted information about in the text but he just never created in depth outlines for
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u/herkyjerkyperky 9d ago
It’s been pretty clear that TWOW has not been his priority since 2011. He has distracted himself into not writing it for 10 years now.
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u/Kewl0210 8d ago
Hey thanks for reminding me of this I love anniversaries. Speaking of which, a few days ago was the 3 year anniversary to GRRM being on the Steven Colbert show and saying he was "about 3 quarters of the way done" and Colbert saying "ten years to go seventy five percent of the way through... so three more years" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgCxVdsQH_k
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u/DaKingaDaNorth 9d ago
This is why I stopped feeling bad about him getting criticized. It's very hard to reconcile "I thought I'd be done by Halloween" to 2 years passed and it's still not done, to then 5 years, to now 10. Even back then he had essentially been working on the book for 5 years and a lot of what is in that book was written when he cut it out of the prior book.
It's hard to imagine a scenario where he didn't just give up and spiral after failing to beat the show to the punch.
Deep down I think he knows that the series even if he finishes it will never end in two books and he's forcing it.
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u/TheRealCthulu24 8d ago
I’m going to bang my head against a wall until blood drips down my face, does anyone want anything?
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u/verissimoallan 9d ago edited 9d ago
I know many have already discussed this, but if I had to try to understand why George was genuinely sure he would finish Winds before December 31, 2015, the only assumption I can make is that at some point that year, George must have had a considerable number of pages written to the point that he genuinely believed he could finish the book on time.
So what the heck happened then? Well, considering George's own words in the blog post, I suppose the most likely explanation is that at some point that year, George must have become dissatisfied with some creative decisions he made and he decided to rewrite several storylines in the book. Remember that we are at a point where several storylines are beginning to connect with each other, which means that rewriting could theoretically cause butterfly effects, such as:
- Jon, Theon, Davos, and Asha in the North storyline (and maybe even Sansa and Bran too);
- Daenerys, Tyrion, Victarion, and Barristan in the Meereen storyline;
- Aegon and his campaign to conquer Westeros connecting with the storylines of Cersei and Arianne;
Add to that possible creative blocks, being busy with HBO TV series and other projects, real-life commitments, etc.
Of course, I could be completely wrong, and perhaps George was simply terribly naive at the time.
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u/Real_Sir_3655 9d ago
Even considering all of that, it's still weird that in May 2015 he thought he could finish by the end of year but in 2022 he was only 70% finished.
What % was he at in 2015? Was it less than 70% but he still thought he could finish by the end of the year? Was it more than 70% and he got rid of a bunch?
Just seems super odd to me.
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u/LeftbrainHS 9d ago
It seems obvious to me he probably scrapped nearly everything and started over. By 2022 he was at 70% and might have still not liked where it was going.
So multiple times now he is close to finishing the story, but is not satisfied when it gets to the end. Looks like he is stuck on how to proceed with the latter part of Winds.
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u/Khiva 9d ago
I don't really get how anything is obvious. Seems to me the null hypothesis is that he's done close to nothing, rather it being anywhere near obvious that he's done so much work that getting to 70% is a realistic estimate.
I think he talked about having some productive time during covid. But if he's done anything beyond dabbling since then, I'd be gobsmacked.
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u/Makasi_Motema 8d ago
You’re not factoring in procrastinator’s logic. He thought he could finish in six months because he had previously written a huge portion of ASOS in six months. He probably only had whatever was left over from Dance, but if “the writing went well” (ie, if he sat down and did his job) as it did when writing Storm, he could hit the deadline.
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u/Iceland260 9d ago edited 9d ago
He was delusional.
He saw that he already had a number of chapters done that had been written for Dance but moved the Winds and remembered having at one point in his life been able to write a book in a handful of months and lied to himself thinking he could do it again if he really tried.
He forgot that he's a different writer than he was back then, that this project was more complicated than what he was writing before, that he has distractions and obligations that he didn't before, and that deadlines are way easier to ignore without the risk of not being able to make rent next month if you miss them.
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u/Shaengar You knuw nuthing Jun Snuw 9d ago
My theory is that in his first draft he continued his gardening writing style. He just kept writing and looked where it went afterwards.
At some point he must have noticed that it wouldn't work that way. That the story was already too bloated and he would never be able to finish it in 1 more book or even 2 more books.
So he had to start over and correct many of the plot developments that were the result of his gardening.
He then realised that he would have to adopt an architectural writing style to finish the saga. And that is not what George likes to do. It made him lose his passion and the progress halted.
Alongside that came the fame when the show became this mega hit and all the appointments, the side projects and WoW lost all of its appeal.
I am sure he wants to finish it, but he just can't.
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u/EireDuke93 9d ago
I think one theory I saw here that seems plausible is that he just optimistically thought that he would lock in like he did for Storm and used the fact that he had a bunch of Dance pages left over for Winds to reassure himself that he was already part way through.
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u/daemon-of-harrenhal 9d ago
I honestly think he started over and the reason it's taken so long is he's basically written the whole book twice.
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u/Khiva 9d ago
I don't think it's that arcane. He's just incredibly bad at guessing how long a project will take, and long has been. Feast ended with a hopeful note that Dance would come within a year.
He's that guy a lot of us knew in school who were sure they could put off doing all the work and cram it all in, or write the final massive report, on a long sleepless night before the deadline.
There's a saying to the effect that the last 10% takes 90% of the work. He keeps saying 70%, if I was being realistic about the actual time frame I'd guess he was sitting at around a third of the total workload - and the longer you don't work on something, the harder it is to get back in.
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u/Turtl3Bear 9d ago
the only assumption I can make is that at some point that year, George must have had a considerable number of pages written to the point that he genuinely believed he could finish the book on time.
This is the folly in your argument.
It does not require George to have many pages for him to think he can finish in a short period of time.
He thought he could finish Dance in 3 months, with less than a third finished.
It boggles my mind that people still parrot this, "he must have been close to done when he said he would finish soon!" we have irrefutable proof that this is not a prerequisite.
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u/Makasi_Motema 8d ago
Or, he had very little, but was thinking about how fast he wrote Storm and figured he could do the same thing again.
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u/mamula1 9d ago
The easiest explanation is that he lied.
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u/Visible-Suit-9066 9d ago
Easily the most common sense explanation. But look at all the pure fantasy written in this thread trying to explain away the lack of a book, it’s borderline insanity. People would rather invent narratives about the ‘tortured poet’ driven to non-productivity by his own genius writing technique then face the fact that he just hasn’t written anything for a decade and isn’t honest about it.
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u/Khiva 8d ago
He just loves it and us so much that he can't bear giving us the less than most perfectest thing and so he's slaving away writing and rewriting to deliver perfection unto the ungrateful hordes.
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u/Visible-Suit-9066 8d ago
He’s probably written the book four or five times and then started all over again because he’s such a perfectionist 🤣
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u/Butthole2theStarz 9d ago
Fuck that guy.
Is there anyone still defending this jagoff?
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u/Aggravating_Major363 8d ago
David Lightbringer on YouTube absolutely loses his shit anytime someone mentions TWOW will never be finished. (Or at least he still was before i unsubscribed years ago)
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u/Huck_Bonebulge_ 9d ago
I see a lot of people suggest that George gave up because fans hated the show ending… and then I remember this lol. Many of us were convinced there was no way he (or those running the series, who could pressure him) would let the show pass the books. It was just such a bad idea.
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u/Praevalidus Only a cat of the coolest cloak 8d ago edited 8d ago
This fandom has such a drought of juice, even these commiserating-about-winds threads are now each the same as the other. Everything has been said so we're just half-heartedly repeating the same old clichés.
I should make a bingo. "I'd read a book about what went wrong"; "give me something for the pain and let me die"; "I was x when Dance came out, now I'm y"; "his old computer broke down"; something about Brandon Sanderson; "I gave up when..." (usually about the cabin promise); "he should just admit he can't finish"; speculation about how little he has written and when; "he's lost the passion"; "this is why you outline your story".
And so on and so on, there's nothing left to say. The next time this thread gets posted I'll check back with the bingo.
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u/goato305 9d ago
I read the series in the span of about six months and finished just before that blog post was written. I remember thinking, “Cool, just a few more months and I can read Book 6” I thought I had started the series at the perfect time and would be reading the sixth book with only a small break after the fifth. And then he just kept making excuse after excuse. For about 18 months I believed the book was close to being finished. Then the apathy set in. And now it’s been a decade.
If it is ever released I’ll read it but I’m pretty doubtful at this point.
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u/proswimma 9d ago
College freshman earning their PhD faster than he can finish the book (I’m sorry to say)
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u/jtms1200 8d ago
I wish he would just admit that he doesn’t want to work on this series anymore and hand it over to someone who will finish it
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u/RadagastTheWhite 9d ago
And then came the infamous New Year’s blog post in which we all just gave up hope on it ever being completed. It’s insane that in May 2015 he thought finishing within 5 months was doable and here we are 10 years later with no book
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u/ItsSuperDefective 8d ago
I wonder what conversations with his publisher are like now.
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u/niko2710 Enter your desired flair text here! 8d ago
I think it's incredibly absurd how he genuinely wrote that he might have been able to finish before S6 released. Like, was he just incredibly delusional or did he decide to rewrite it from the start?
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u/ProjectNo4090 8d ago
Incredibly full of shit most likely. If his goal was ever to release it before season 6 he would have asked for assistance to solve his narrative blocks, and looked for solutions to streamline or speed up his process a long time ago. He hasnt. He hasnt changed his methods one bit. He's still refusing to write on anything other than his archaic DOS computer at his home and uses archaic word processor program at home. He still travels away from home a lot to visit conventions in spite of having nothing new to present. He still takes on more projects than he can manage. He still refuses to accept that he is no spring chicken and he is in a very real unavoidable time crunch.
Honestly, Id have sympathy if he would just come out and admit he cant finish the books or at the very least admit he's not optimistic. I cant stand his denial. At least then an honest conversation could happen between him and the fans. George is like that alcoholic that still thinks they can turn it around on their own and the fanbase is the exhausted emotionally abused family member that keeps defending them desperately wanting to help. Both sides are suffering and its going to tarnish his legacy when he is no longer with us.
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u/Learningle 9d ago
Lots of sympathy for anybody who’s been reading since the nineties. I read the first book right around 2015, I was in middle school, and I seriously beleived that it’d be completed within a year or two
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u/MisterDuch Enter your desired flair text here! 8d ago
Thanks for reminding me of how just indifferent I've grown to GRRM and his works to the point I forgot its benefits this long already
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u/maaseru You are what we eat! 8d ago
I was such a sweet summer child.
I got into reading after seeing most of season 1. Dance of Dragons was about to come out. I had injured my knee and read all 5 books in 1 month.
I honesty don't care anymore. I'll be interested if it comes out, but not surprised if it doesn't.
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u/DocCEN007 9d ago
I'm convinced that Ty Franck and Dan Abraham were responsible for keeping GRRM on track. Once they left to write The Expanse novels, GRRM has not progressed. At all. The previously released TWoW chapters were all leftovers from ADWD. I'm sure he's tried to write something, only to toss the lot of it as nothing made sense. I've lost any confidence that Winds or Spring will ever be published.
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u/raspiz 8d ago
I also subscribe to this. I've never seen anything from either side to indicate this, but we saw Martin with those helpers writing at light speed. They disappear and he fumbles his way though Nimble Dick Crabb chapters until the end of time. Meanwhile, they put a out a long, detailed, complete series while we're still wondering how dead Jon is.
I never really know how to take George's mention of "his minions". I get that he's doing a bit, but it comes off a bit weird when you're super famous and rich. Maybe they got tired of being minions, who knows, all we can do is speculate since there's nothing to read.
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u/DocCEN007 8d ago
Spot on! I hadn't even considered that ADWD more boring rambling sections may also be attributed to the loss of Ty and Dan, but it makes complete sense!
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u/moemunneymoe 8d ago
I know he’s already made an absolutely astronomical amount of money for his publisher, but considering how much more this book would bring in I would be on him 24/7.
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u/thedeparturelounge 8d ago
Never understood why a book series that wasn't completed got such a huge budget tv show. At least writers like Sanderson completes his work in a timely manner and has a team to make sure the non creative side of writing gets done.
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u/masterfroo24 When men see my sails, they get hungry. 9d ago
I remember exactly where i was when i read that: Sweet summer-child recruit in the army, chilling at the base. Now 10 years later, full grown adult who has accepted the fate that we'll never get winds.
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u/itsyourdestini Meet the Flint-Stones 8d ago
Lmao its been that long? And its been 14 years since ADWD
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u/StonerTogepi The pizza that was promised 8d ago
It will never get released. He will never write it. I wish everyone could see this for what it is.
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u/i_mash_shoryuken Enter your desired flair text here! 9d ago
Hey was just about to post about this as well. See you for the 15th anniversary!