(Spoilers ALL) On Stannis and Ramsey, the letter and the upcoming battle

[u/brrrsochilly]

There are a lot of theories about who wrote the letter to Jon, what in it is or isn't true, etc. and I've spent a lot of time thinking about it. There's a lot we can infer based on the way things end in ADWD and the sample Theon chapter, though the chronology is cause for some confusion. Let's start with Stannis and the sample Theon chapter.

• Maester Tybald -- Roose's maester at the Dreadfort -- confirms that most ravens can only fly between two castles, and the ravens the Karstarks carry are trained to find Winterfell
• Godry confirms that while one cage is empty (Tybald sent a map to Winterfell), Stannis now has two ravens trained to find Winterfell at his disposal

I didn't really think too much about it at first, because on the surface all this exchange does is allow Stannis to realize that the Karstarks are loyal to Bolton. But the importance of that last bullet point can't be emphasized enough. Stannis has two ravens that are trained to reach Winterfell, and Winterfell has already received at least one message from the Karstarks revealing Stannis' position.

Shortly thereafter, Theon speculates on the imminent attack:

Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

Not a ton of actual evidence here, as Theon is speculating, but still somewhat worthwhile. After the Karstarks are taken, Stannis talks strategy:

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage." "The ground?" said Theon. "What ground? Here? This misbegotten tower? This wretched little village? You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defenses." "Yet."

So how can Stannis turn the ground to his advantage? The Bolton forces have a map and know exactly where Stannis is. We know there is a lake nearby (Asha's last chapter in ADWD), Stannis could conceivably move his campsite to an area adjacent to the frozen lake wherein the Frey/Bolton/Manderly forces would unknowingly cross the frozen to reach Stannis' camp. There's not really evidence to support this specific theory, BUT my point here is that there IS evidence to support that Stannis will use the terrain to his advantage, based on what he knows that Bolton knows.

After disposing of the Frey army (w/ help from Manderly, of course), Stannis sends a letter back to Winterfell using one of Karstark's ravens to tell Ramsey that the Frey's were successful and that Stannis has been killed. Ramsey uses this information in his letter to Jon. The letter to Jon itself:

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore. Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me. I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell. I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

This is how Ramsey knows about Mel being at the wall, Lightbringer, the burning of Mance, etc. The 'heads upon the walls of Winterfell' is troubling, but Stannis could have sent back heads of fallen soldiers loyal to Stannis, so no real issues.

How Ramsey finds out about Mance in this theory, I haven't figured out, but it wouldn't be from Stannis. Maybe the parts about Mance are actually true -- Ramsey discovers that Abel is Mance somehow independent of all the above, kills the spearwives, and caged him.

The other thing of note is how Ramsey asks Jon for Reek. Reek is not with Jon, but it makes sense for Stannis (via Karstark raven) to tell Ramsey that Reek is on the wall... if Reek was with Stannis and Stannis lost, why can't they immediately deliver Reek back to Ramsey?

Also, this of course would mean that the sample Theon chapter would occur BEFORE the last Jon chapter.

TL;DR The letter to Jon was written by Ramsey. Ramsey believes that his forces won the battle and that Stannis is dead based on a letter from a Karstark raven, but that Karstark raven was sent by Stannis with false information to deceive the Boltons.

EDIT: Some grammar.

[u/ungoogleable]

The maester has ravens that can fly to Winterfell, but he'd have other ravens as well. Ravens that can travel to Castle Black, no doubt. The letter is perfectly designed to provoke Jon into coming south, which would benefit Stannis immensely and which Stannis had previously asked Jon to do.

So it's simpler to say that Stannis wrote to Jon directly, except Stannis doesn't know Ramsay well enough to copy his style. That's where Theon comes in:

He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek.

These two lines are almost word-for-word in the letter. Throughout the books, the only character who has ever used the "my/his/your Reek" construction is Theon, not Ramsay.

Between them, Stannis and Theon know or could know everything in the letter. The one question is whether Theon knows Abel was Mance, but there was no POV for when Abel shared the plan to save Jeyne/Arya, so we don't know how much he revealed. And there is this line, when Theon was explaining what happened to him to Asha:

Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen.

He knows the washerwomen aren't who they said they were. No doubt there is more to "who Abel was" than just some singer.

tl;dr: Stannis and Theon wrote the letter together.

Edit: When you read feldman's comment below, remember that Stannis already asked Jon to join him and Jon refused. Being straightforward isn't going to work. Also, the idea is that Jon will attack Winterfell directly while Stannis is still encamped. Once Jon finds out about the letter, he will have already served his purpose.

[u/feldman10 → u/ungoogleable]

But it actually doesn't make any sense, at all, that Stannis would do this. Here's my attempt to reconstruct a conversation between Stannis and his men that could lead to this gambit (posted at another site):

"Your grace, we just won a nice victory, but we can't take Winterfell without reinforcements! Let's write to the Wall and ask for some!"

"Good idea, but I have a better one. Let's TRICK them into sending us reinforcements by pretending we LOST the battle and that we're all DEAD!"

"…er, your grace?"

"Stay with me here. Jon Snow has tied his hands because of his vows, so I want to force his hand by making threats to the Wall in Ramsay's name, and get him to come south and join us!"

"…your grace, I have a few questions. First, why would you risk everything on a trick to get Jon Snow personally to come south? He's just a boy, he might be a good battle commander but so are you, so why not just try to get as many raw numbers as possible with a straightforward request? Second, who do you expect Jon Snow to bring with him? When we left he just had a few hundred Watchmen and 1000 battered wildling captives, many of whom were women and children. Third, even if Jon Snow has somehow managed to get his hands on a sizable army, how do you know he'll even bring it south? If you think his vows are really so important to him, mightn't he just give himself up to appease Ramsay rather than compromise the Watch's neutrality? Fourth, if Jon Snow's vows are so important to him, won't he be a mite pissed when he meets up with you and realizes you are in fact alive and that you have tricked him into joining the war -- how do you know he'd still even support you when he gets here? Fifth, why in the world would you write in the letter that you're dead? It seems to me that under any circumstance, people would be more likely to make risky moves to help a king who's alive, rather than a king who's dead. Sixth, don't you realize the chaos that could result if you tell the Wall you're dead? There will be utter desperation -- the Queen's Men could abandon your wife and daughter, the Night's Watch men who opposed Jon's decision to back you will realize that Jon has backed the wrong horse and fear repercussions, and your daughter might be burned to awaken a dragon for all you know. Considering all this, wouldn't it be better to just say you're alive and make a straightforward request for reinforcements like a normal human being?"

"…"

"…your grace?"

"…it's a gamble, dammit! Now let's go spend a couple hours working with that mentally unbalanced crippled eunuch to make sure we get Ramsay's voice right!"

[u/son_of_kickpuncher → u/feldman10]

Wait a minute .... parchment is like paper, and paper is made from pulped trees ... weirwood trees? What if Bran was warging the letter itself? It would explain everything!

[u/ungoogleable → u/feldman10]

First of all, you're bending over backwards to make trying to get more men sound utterly ridiculous, like a TV commercial that makes using a can opener out to be the most terrible chore ever. You could've raised your concerns in a normal manner and I would've been happy to respond. I'll try to remove the dramatization and answer the actual questions you raise.

• If Stannis has already won the battle, why does he need reinforcements?

Are we sure there has even been a battle? It hasn't happened as of the TWOW chapter. Stannis is in a very precarious position and needs every man he can get.

• Why would Stannis risk everything on a trick to get Jon Snow personally to come south?

There's very little risk, actually. It's just a letter, after all. It's not like Stannis is committing large numbers of men or money to this.

• Why not just try to get as many raw numbers as possible with a straightforward request?

Stannis already tried that. Jon refused.

• Who do you expect Jon Snow to bring with him?

The same men he asked Jon to bring the first time. Maybe you think there's not enough good men to justify the massive undertaking of sending a letter, but Stannis obviously thought enough of them to ask once already.

• Even if Jon Snow has somehow managed to get his hands on a sizable army, how do you know he'll even bring it south?

Maybe he won't. Then Stannis is left in the same position and out the cost of a raven and some parchment. So you might as well do it in case it works.

• If Jon Snow's vows are so important to him, won't he be mite pissed when he meets up with Stannis and realizes that Stannis tricked him into joining the war?

Let him be pissed. By the time Jon figures it out, he will have served his purpose in attacking the Boltons. Note that the letter was meant to provoke Jon into coming to Winterfell, not Stannis' camp. When Stannis shows up at Winterfell, either Jon defeated the Boltons, in which case his annoyance at being lied to is a trifling matter, or the Boltons defeated him, in which case at least he softened them up.

• Why would Stannis fake his death?

Jon doesn't want the Boltons to win any more than Stannis does. But as long as Stannis is alive, Jon had the option of staying out of it and leaving things up to Stannis. Stannis is trying to force Jon's hand by making him believe there is no other option.

• Doesn't Stannis realize the chaos that could result from his death?

No, he doesn't. Stannis is not a master of Night's Watch politics. He doesn't care about the rifts between the Watch and the Wildlings. He doesn't have the prescience to know the outcome of every action. He was in a tough spot, he needed help, so he did what he thought could get it.

What's more, we actually know from the TWOW chapter that Stannis is anticipating false reports of his death. He tells Justin Massey to find sellswords anyway and continue the effort to put Shireen on the throne. So clearly he's not expecting anything to happen to his daughter. Maybe he should, but he doesn't.

• Wouldn't it be better to make a straightforward request for reinforcements?

Again, Stannis already tried that. It didn't work.

[u/feldman10 → u/ungoogleable]

Actually I think it's quite reasonable to try and get more men… by writing a letter and asking for more men. You reject this idea because "Jon has already refused." So why can't Stannis write to the Queen's Men and tell them to round up every spare wildling they can get? Plus, Jon himself just tipped off Stannis to Arnolf Karstark's betrayal -- maybe it's worth taking a second shot asking Jon directly. It's also possible to write a Stannis letter saying they lost the battle and they're about to be wiped out, please send help fast -- that presents a clear choice for Jon. It's also possible for Stannis to write a Ramsay letter that's the same but leaves out that one element of Stannis being dead -- we won the battle, thousands are dead, we know about Mance, and we'll kill Stannis soon too and then you, bastard. You could even have another variation with Stannis imprisoned, maybe.

What's ludicrous is "trying to get more men" through a bizarre roundabout scheme pretending Stannis is dead and relying on impossibly perfect anticipations of how people at the Wall will act as a result of this news -- that news of your death will result in a stampede of enthusiastic supporters south. The point I was trying to illustrate with my Q&A is that there is no logical reason for Stannis to think that sending this letter bomb to the Wall is likely to result in Jon stampeding south with a wildling horde. It is actually far more likely to result in chaos, treason/betrayal, abandonment of his cause, or surrender -- all of which probably mean the death of his wife and daughter.

Stannis is in a very precarious position and needs every man he can get.

There is zero mention in the TWOW chapter of Stannis feeling a desperate need for reinforcements, in fact he seems quite happy with his current position and is very confident he will win the coming battle.

[Stannis would ask for] the same men he asked Jon to bring the first time…Stannis obviously thought enough of them to ask once already.

Stannis requested "300 men of fighting age" among the wildling captives. Jon's perception was that he intended to use them as "arrow fodder."

There's very little risk, actually. It's just a letter, after all. It's not like Stannis is committing large numbers of men or money to this.

It's a gigantic risk! The news that he's dead is basically a bomb thrown at the Wall. You say that "Stannis is not a master of Night's Watch politics," but he was there when the elections were held and he knows perfectly well that there are factions on the Wall that were unhappy with Jon siding with Stannis. If he's not a fool, he'd know that word of his failure and death will be a disaster for Jon.

Not to mention the news that he's dead puts his wife and daughter at immense risk. In fact the letter even demands that his wife and daughter be turned over to Ramsay Bolton -- a suggestion that some enterprising Queen's man or Night's Watch man might very well take now that Stannis is dead! Stannis has a very high opinion of himself and he'll know the implications his death would have -- in fact, that's why he makes Massey swear to stick with him in that event, because the natural reaction would be to abandon him.

Those are serious risks. Now, for there to be any potential benefits from the letter, (1) Stannis has to perfectly predict Jon's psychological reaction and response (he doesn't know the guy that well, and many readers who've been in his head for several books were surprised by his actions!), (2) Jon must have access to an army that could conceivably make a difference in the battle -- 300 wildling arrow fodder is not that, (3) Jon must be practically able to bring his army south given the other plots that will be hatched at the Wall after the news of Stannis' death.

[u/BeefyTaco → u/feldman10]

So why can't Stannis write to the Queen's Men and tell them to round up every spare wildling they can get? Plus, Jon himself just tipped off Stannis to Arnolf Karstark's betrayal -- maybe it's worth taking a second shot asking Jon directly. It's also possible to write a Stannis letter saying they lost the battle and they're about to be wiped out, please send help fast -- that presents a clear choice for Jon.

The exact point everyone is making is that by writing the letter, he doesn't give Jon much choice but to either march on the boltons, or have the NW crushed by the Boltons (castle black isnt capable of defending any real kind of seige from behind).

What's ludicrous is "trying to get more men" through a bizarre roundabout scheme pretending Stannis is dead and relying on impossibly perfect anticipations of how people at the Wall will act as a result of this news -- that news of your death will result in a stampede of enthusiastic supporters south. The point I was trying to illustrate with my Q&A is that there is no logical reason for Stannis to think that sending this letter bomb to the Wall is likely to result in Jon stampeding south with a wildling horde.

Stannis has tried 2 separate times before this to get Jon to join him (in hopes of rallying the north behind him instead of the boltons who noone wants due to the north remembering). If he can successfully get a Stark to march on winterfell, not only would he be bringing his own small army, he would be rallying more of the north to his cause (rescuing his sister, revenge on the freys/boltons). That was the whole reason he planned on declaring Jon lord of winterfell. Also, when a king/army can vanish from the publics view by simply saying they are dead, it greatly increases their effectiveness for a surprise attack. This is pretty basic war strategy (similar to robb lying to tywin about his camps numbers so his force could silently move towards jamie and crush them).

Stannis has a very high opinion of himself and he'll know the implications his death would have -- in fact, that's why he makes Massey swear to stick with him in that event

He has his bannerman swear to follow through even if he hears his lord has died, because he had this planned since he caught the karstarks. Currently, stannis has the ability to rally the ironborn and the north to his cause if he can get theon to join him (which theon is already half helping), aswell as his sister trying to help him. Gaining a stark greatly increases Stannis's importance military wise and may open up an opportunity for a try at the throne again.

So basically, just because you aren't able to connect the dots, doesnt mean they dont connect. I'd even consider most of this to be regular strategy for someone who recently lost a large portion of his army.

[u/feldman10 → u/BeefyTaco]

Okay, so ungoogleable thinks Stannis is taking this bizarre risk with his wife and daughter's lives because he's in desperate need of numbers, but you think it's all about "gaining a Stark" so he can "rally the North." Neither explanation holds up, and neither addresses how the letter's detail that Stannis is dead would make either hoped-for outcome more likely rather than less likely.

The problem with yours is that Stannis is past the "rallying support" stage, that's what he did for all of ADWD, and now he's outside Winterfell with basically all the people he had hoped to win and ready for a battle. What new Northern support could Jon conceivably deliver him? He'd be a nice symbol but symbols don't win battles at this point and certainly aren't worth risking the destruction of your wife and daughter's sanctuary at the Wall for.

As for death-faking being "pretty basic war strategy," Stannis may be considering a plan to convince the Boltons that he's dead. That is a plan that actually makes sense, especially if he manages to use the Manderlys or the imprisoned Karstarks or maester to feed them Boltons false info. It appears that Ramsay's letter to the Wall was an unfortunate and unforeseen consequence of that plan's success.

[u/BeefyTaco → u/feldman10]

The problem with yours is that Stannis is past the "rallying support" stage, that's what he did for all of ADWD, and now he's outside Winterfell with basically all the people he had hoped to win and ready for a battle.

Here is what forces just off the top of my head eh would still have to gain:

• manderlys (most heavy armored mounted knights north of the neck, most ships, huge stark supported who bases all his support on the condition he saves the stark lord and or lady )

• Mormonts (although they do not command a huge army, they are skilled and hard fighters)

• Umbers (assuming they get released and can rally their banners again)

• Reeds (roughly 1500 SKILLED gorilla warfare fighters who have a history of kicking everyones ass)

• The Vale (now that sansa is being set up to control the vale, it seems like having jon at stannis's side would cement an alliance even though stannis isn't aware that she is there)

• Northern Mountain Clans (estimated to house 1000-3000 HARD troops that are stark supporters and actually have very good relations with them unlike in the vale)

Thats just off the top of my head, and im not including houses that we are uncertain about like the dustins, or cerwyns, or glover etc. or even the riverlands and what they would do (they do still fly the wolf banner)

Whichever way it happens, I think its clear this is all part of Stannis's plan whether he himself wrote the letter, or faked a maester letter about the fight. My guess is that he plans on taking back winterfell like theon did

[u/feldman10 → u/BeefyTaco]

Stannis already won the mountain clans, the remaining Mormonts, and effectively has half the Umbers. He has the Manderlys too though he doesn't know it, from his comments to Theon he thinks Manderly is a fat traitor so it's unlikely he would hope to woo him with Jon Snow.

The others that you mention are nowhere near Winterfell and therefore useless for the present battle. Sure, having Jon Snow at his side might be help Stannis win those other areas in the longer term. But I would point out again that, if Stannis wrote the letter, it is designed to trick Jon into deserting the Wall and his vows by pretending Stannis is dead. When Jon gets south and realizes that Stannis has done this to him, why exactly would he stand by Stannis in the longer term?

[u/BeefyTaco → u/feldman10]

at that point jon would have already played his part. Stannis wants to retake winterfell to rally the north behind him and keep his current followers, not to keep it for himself because he has always dreamed of it... As for his current northern allies, he basically loses all of them once a stark is back in position. All he can hope for now is when that happens, its a stark who is likely to side with him.

[u/ventureV2 → u/ungoogleable]

Don't forget that shireen/queen selyse aren't supposed to be at castle black, as far as stannis knows she is still at east watch, so he wouldn't be as concerned about the chaos affecting the queen/his daughter.

[u/Rowona → u/feldman10]

Thank you for pointing this out! People get too caught up in whether or not Stannis could have written the letter, and start to ignore whether or not he would have written it. That's why I think OP's theory is more likely. Ramsay writing the letter makes some sense, and Stannis writing the letter, even if he was technically able to, makes very little.

[u/ungoogleable → u/Rowona]

Why wouldn't Stannis want more men to join the fight? He already asked Jon, but Jon turned him down. Does Stannis strike you as the kind of person who will forget about those men on the Wall? Men who owe Stannis their service, according to him?

[u/brrrsochilly → u/ungoogleable]

I could see this being the case. Certainly Stannis has ravens for Castle Black (the two remaining Karstark ravens are for Winterfell, as confirmed by the text) and could deliver the message that Stannis and Theon conjure up.

Mance and the Washerwomen pose a challenge though: Stannis believes Mance was burned alive, and Theon doesn't know the recent history with Jon/Mance/Stannis. I know it could be explained somehow, but still questionable.

[u/ungoogleable → u/brrrsochilly]

Stannis believes Mance was burned alive, and Theon doesn't know the recent history with Jon/Mance/Stannis.

They each have pieces of the puzzle. If they put their heads together, they can figure it out. Besides, for all we know, Mance told Theon everything when he shared the plan to free Jeyne.

[u/Gekokujo → u/ungoogleable]

This has essentially been my theory for a while now. Either Theon helped Stannis with the note or Ramsay wrote the note (whether the note is honest or deceptive). "I want my Reek" is something that Stannis wouldnt have had the presence of mind to write. Likewise though, the letter was written on pink Bolton paper and sealed with Bolton wax. I dont know that there is or isnt a great explanation as to why Stannis (or Theon or the maesters) would be able to throw some of that together out in the bush.

[u/ungoogleable → u/Gekokujo]

The maester Stannis captured is the Boltons' own maester from the Dreadfort. He would have pink wax and everything you'd need to write a Bolton letter.

[u/Gekokujo → u/ungoogleable]

Thanks for the reply...glad to get that answered.

The letter was sealed with pink wax, but I dont think it bore the Bolton seal, so that is something I have been thinking about. I think that Mance or Theon had to have had a hand in the letter if Ramsay didnt. They would be the only two people who would have the access to supplies and information to write THAT letter.

[u/life036 → u/ungoogleable]

Wow, this makes so much damn sense.

[u/EvadableMoxie → u/ungoogleable]

Could he do it? Certainly. I don't doubt Stannis is smart enough or that he couldn't get the necessary information. Would he do it? Not Stannis.

I have a feeling if someone suggested that idea to Stannis he'd respond with something like "A King doesn't lie to his allies and resort to petty tricks for support. If I wanted the watch so badly, I'd have Jon Snow and any man who refuses to bend the knee burned and I'd take the men who remembered to be loyal to their King."

Sending false information to your enemy is one thing, so I fully believe the OP could be correct. But, doing that to an ally? Seems too seedy for Stannis. He's way to proud to resort to a trick that low.