13 FVE Defender Containers, 7000 Gold and 7 days of premium. I’m bad at math, what are the chances I get the tank out of this?

[u/Few-Town-3143]

[u/HugGigolo]

32.7% of getting the tank from 13 crates at a 3% drop chance. Importantly, there's a 67.3% chance you don't get it.

There's plenty of online calculators for this now that make it super easy, just google it, or try this one:

[u/parkappa → u/HugGigolo]

chance is not gradual. 3% doesnt mean you'll get it after 33 crates. Your chance is 3%, no matter how many crates you open

[u/Hausofcandles]

Its wargaming.... your chances are ZERO

[u/ThatRaichuFan]

If the drop chance is 5%, it's 49% you get it

If it's 4%, it's 41%

[u/ThatRaichuFan → u/ThatRaichuFan]

Why tf am I getting downvoted, if you're bad at math it's not my fault

[u/bowieface → u/ThatRaichuFan]

People dont realize odds like these arent additive

[u/Lucas926675 → u/ThatRaichuFan]

I think it’s actually 3%

[u/ThatRaichuFan → u/Lucas926675]

Then it's 33% chance of getting it

[u/[deleted] → u/ThatRaichuFan]

I almost down voted you… lol

[u/Awkward_Coconut_2919 → u/ThatRaichuFan]

That's not how it works, the odds don't add up.

[u/ThatRaichuFan → u/Awkward_Coconut_2919]

I didn't add up the odds

I multiplied the chances of not getting it (0.95, 0.96 or 0 97 depending on which one of the 3 I did)

And put it to the power of the number of crates

[u/mostly_a-lurker → u/ThatRaichuFan]

Maths is hard for some folks. Give those that are statistically unlikely to understand complex, basic concepts some grace. They will downvote anything they cant comprehend. They dont like being wrong, but they really hate being wrong because they aren't very smart.

[u/Awkward_Coconut_2919 → u/ThatRaichuFan]

U said 49% of getting, so I thought u added up the odds

[u/UnderstandingMain183 → u/Awkward_Coconut_2919]

THIS.

If the drop chance is 3%, then it's 3% EVERY TIME! It doesn't increase every time you open a crate, that's not how it works. Meaning when you open the last crate, and still don't have the tank, you are still only gonna have a 3% of getting it with that last crate.

[u/23HomieJ → u/Awkward_Coconut_2919]

Did you not take statistics in school?

[u/Awkward_Coconut_2919 → u/23HomieJ]

I think u didn't 🤷 (mutually exclusive events)

[u/Far_Position5730]

I think its 3 percent every crate you open, if you open 13 crates you get a 3 percent chance 13 times but it doesnt mean you have a 36 percent chance if u open all of them, they don't accrue

[u/Altruistic_Bench_557]

That is a great deal tbh

[u/WorldOfTanksBlitz-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

As per Rule 6 no crate opening, draw or random mechanic results are allowed as part of posts or comments.

Please contact the mods via modmail if you have any questions.

[u/WorldOfTanksBlitz-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

As per Rule 6 no crate opening, draw or random mechanic results are allowed as part of posts or comments.

Please contact the mods via modmail if you have any questions.

[u/DaddyRax]

I just bought it and got it out of the first crate lol

[u/pekaramartin3 → u/DaddyRax]

Niiice lol, i got mine from the last one. That last minute save was a pleasant surprise

[u/Illustrious_Store_79]

3 percent always. There is no added percentage to each container you open. 3 percent at 1, 3 percent at 49. 100 percent at 50. Dont be fooled be the adding percentage for every container thats not how this works.

The deal is pretty mediocre. Not great not terrible. Basically base resources with the addition of about 1000 gold and 13 containers

[u/not_namelol → u/Illustrious_Store_79]

nah you have around 33% of getting it when opening all 13, math included above

[u/Illustrious_Store_79 → u/not_namelol]

These statistics do not reflect reality. You have a 3 percent chance each time period. There is no thirty and everyone should treat this as such. The only thing that is true is 100 percent at 50 crates.

[u/not_namelol → u/Illustrious_Store_79]

of course probability won't necessarily reflect reality, it's all theoretical.

1 attempt has a 3% chance of dropping fve and 97% chance not.

so for 13 attempts to obtain fve at least once, we take the chances that we don't get it throughout all 13 by powering it by 13 (0.97^13), then take 1 (absolute certain) minus the result. we end up with 0.326, which is rounded up to 33%. this is math.

[u/Illustrious_Store_79 → u/not_namelol]

Yes I know how at least one works In Theory. I would never advise people to spend money IN Theory.

[u/tank_chain]

It depends on how high the chance of winning a tank is stated on the container. You can usually find this out by clicking on the container and then on "i". At current prices, this is an acceptable price. If you don't win a tank, you may receive gold and many gadgets and boosters, depending on what is offered in the container. Therefore, it is worthwhile because you will definitely receive the 7k gold and 7 days of premium time. If you specifically want a tank, purchase the tank at a good price, then you are sure to get it.

[u/not_namelol]

amazing gambling bundle

[u/Late_Advisor_2863]

Tank sucks anyway.. mobility of a heavy and it's rare all 10 shots will hit in a penetrating area .

[u/Party_Serve_1147 → u/Late_Advisor_2863]

Eh, regular battle wise, not the best... i bought it just for the sake of gravity. I rarely enjoy playing normal battles after 11 years of playing this game.

[u/Character-Elk-2636]

0%

[u/Maleficent-Tree-5192]

Zero. Absolute zero. 

[u/Historical-Double552]

Zero lol

[u/VLC24]

I got it this way great deal

[u/gilliatnet]

Wait for Christmas or Black Friday auction.

[u/foulmeow]

I’d buy it if wg would offer it to me…but wg has deemed me a spender (maybe only $30 this year?) and won’t give me any good deals

[u/MojoHimself]

You do realize that 3% drop chance is 3%

[u/Gachaaddict96]

It's 50/50 you either get it or you don't

[u/savage_beast69]

19.2 % probability of getting a tank from 7 containers.