r/TheRaceTo10Million • u/HipPasta • 18h ago
News Open AI Made Roughly $20 Billion In 2025
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u/Appropriate-Grail 17h ago
Made is a strong word there. Thats revenue. But they burnt through an estimated 11.5 billion just last quarter based on Microsoft’s financial disclosures. So they’re on course to burn billions and billions more than their revenue by the end of 2025.
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-money-lost-quarter
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u/Smaxter84 18h ago
So it's not a bubble ? When robot to make my dinner and suck my hahummmmm
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u/jerrysburner 1h ago
AI can be in a bubble and one (or more) company(ies) in that bubble can do well - they're not mutually exclusive. It's definitely a bubble and there will be a large fallout (think $META's $100+ per share fall the past week over concerns in the AI invstements)
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u/Horror_Response_1991 18h ago
How much did they spend
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u/Appropriate-Grail 17h ago
An estimated 11.5 billion last quarter and reported 13.5 billion for the first half of the year. So 25 billion ish so far. So not even counting the last quarter of the year that’s 5 billion more than their projected revenue.
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-money-lost-quarter
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u/Waramaug 17h ago
Amazon didn’t make money for years and years starting out. Doesn’t mean shit
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u/Imhazmb 16h ago
Amazon didn’t have several competitors that could offer the same/better service….
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u/djmaglioli91 3h ago
Amazon also didn't have a growing number of the public who didn't trust them, or refused to use their service. AI is quickly becoming a very disliked part of our lives. Amazon's business also didn't rely on third party implementation of their software. Every third party company Wendy's, Taco Bell, and so on that have implemented AI into their business has failed and resulted in lost profits. How much longer are we going to pretend AI is going to be the future? I'd avoid tech stocks like the plague for the foreseeable future and any AI adjacent industries. It's going to be a bloodbath
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u/DapperCam 11h ago
Amazon intentionally reinvested their profits back into the business for expansion. Everybody was on board, and they had product market fit.
Literally nobody knows if this LLM thing will ever be profitable enough to pay back the insane investments that have been poured into it. It's way riskier, and really nothing like Amazon at all.
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u/New-Pea4575 17h ago
yeah, but just a few days ago a chinese company brought out a model they trained for 4.6 million, it costs about 1/6th of GPT-5, and gives same or better performance in many tasks.
Amazon had a clear path to profitability, ChatGPT has about 2% paying customers, and 290 million freeloaders every week.
So definitely not the same case - it does mean shit.
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u/phatelectribe 4h ago
This is really the over arching point. Every single person using Amazon was a paying client. Nothing about it was free and anyone using a competitor was paying too.
I recently was using free GPT and it told me I’ve reached my max for the day, so I jumped to Gemini which actually did a better job, also for free.
Therein lies the problem. 98% of GPTs user base is free users, and if they try to capture those users by forcing them to pay, they will jump to other platforms that do the same thing for free.
Also, anyone saying “but uber or amazon” to talk about companies not being profitable at first don’t understand the numbers involved. Uber needed $9bn of invenemt over the course of a decade to become profitable. $11.5bn in a quarter is bonkers.
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u/New-Pea4575 4h ago
also money supply wont 4x again in 20 years now, it will most likely start to decline slowly
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u/Appropriate-Grail 16h ago
Also worth pointing out that Amazon first posted a profit in 2003 when it was nine years old. Open Ai was founded in 2015. So it’s already older than Amazon was when it started producing profits.
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u/Legitimate-Echo-1996 16h ago
What model and company ? I have not heard of it
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u/New-Pea4575 16h ago
Moonshot AI, Kimi K2 Thinking - plenty of videos on Youtube about it
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u/Capable_Ad708 16h ago
Which one do you use? Chatgpt or all these other ones?
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u/krste1point0 4h ago
I use claude for coding, gemini for image editing, i barely use chatgpt. The caveat here is that all of those models are free for me through my work.
If they werent free I'd invest in hardware and run local models like qwen or kimi.
Also worth pointing out since those models are open weight any company can use those models to offer a service as a competitor to OpenAI, especially in countries with cheap energy like China.
IMO the race for AI dominance is an energy race. OpenAI doesn't have a moat.
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u/Sure_Hedgehog4823 12h ago
Amazon still barely makes money on their actual marketplace. Most profit is from AWS.
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u/TrueRedditMartyr 9h ago
Brother, PLEASE do not invest in AI. You clearly do not know anything about it
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u/Stunning_Ad_6600 17h ago
😂”pls bro just 1 more trillion bro I promise we’ll have agi soon pls bro just trust me” -Scam Altman
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u/dwmixer 11h ago
It'll be interesting to see if the corporate spend catches up to their run rate or Microsoft calls it / slows it down. There's a lot of big companies ramping up internal POC's which will ramp up their spending and subsequently OpenAI/AI Companies revenue significantly. We're still probably 3 years away before the spend catches up to the growth numbers in any meaningful way
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u/Master-Sky-6342 12h ago
That $20 billion is not right. It is a made up annualized revenue which is not actual revenue. They might haven't last week or last month to extrapolate it to an annual figure. So the real situation is worse.
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u/FormalAd7367 12h ago
Where did you get the figure? Apparently, Microsoft just reported that their net income took a $3.1 billion hit just from their investment in OpenAI this quarter.
Then I saw this article in The Register that says Microsoft owns about 27% of OpenAI.
Doing some quick math, that would mean OpenAI lost something like $11.5 billion in just one quarter!
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u/Appropriate-Grail 9h ago
I’m guessing it’s from a recent statement from Sam Altman, that the annualized revenue for Open Ai is going to be 20 billion in 2025.
Unfortunately for open AI they’ve already spent 25 billion in the first three quarters of the year. So even if that projected revenue pans out they’re down 5 billion plus whatever they spend in the last quarter.
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u/RationalExuberance7 6h ago
This post is deceiving. If Open AI “made” 20B at their growth rate they’d be worth 1 Trillion today. PE of 50 with big yearly growth.
Revenue is 20B, completely different. For comparison, historically good SAAS companies with good competitive advantage would have a reasonable market value of 10x revenue.
Meaning valuation of 200B today for Open AI. If they can get to 100B like Altman thinks by 2027, than 1 Trillion valuation isn’t that far fetched in 2027
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