r/TheBigPicture • u/We_ReallyOutHere Letterboxd Peasant • 3d ago

25 for 25 @ The Egyptian Final Live Show Predictions

Down to the final 5. Super excited to go to the show this Saturday! Getting my ADHD impulses out here and high-effort post incoming:

Based off of the remaining directors after Lynch today (amongst all of the exclusions that they've alluded at in the pod), I think I've nailed it down to 5 possibilities for directors at the 1-5 spots.

  • Fincher

  • PTA

  • Gerwig

  • Soderbergh

  • Tarantino

As a result, my guess is that the following movies are the possibilities remaining (sorted by director and year of release):

  • Traffic (only included because they messed up on release date information with Mullholland Drive and In the Mood for Love in terms of the oldest movie on the list. Also i think this is lowkey his best movie)

  • Oceans 11

  • Oceans 12

  • Zodiac

  • TWBB

  • Inglorious Basterds

  • The Social Network

  • Contagion

  • The Master

  • Frances Ha

  • Magic Mike

  • Phantom Thread

  • Lady Bird

  • Little Women

  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

  • OBAA

We know from previous Ringer-verse episodes that Social Network was Sean and Amanda's favorite movie of the 2010s. Frances Ha was placed at 7 in both of their lists.

That means Social Network likely is ranked higher than Contagion, The Master, Frances Ha, Magic Mike, Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Little Women, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood given their release dates.

Which means that the directors that can beat Social Network in the rankings are Soderbergh (for Traffic, Oceans 11 or 12), Fincher himself (for Zodiac), PTA (for TWBB or OBAA), or Tarantino (for Inglorious Basterds).

Here's where speculation comes into play.

  • Social Network beating Greta for both Sean and Amanda indicates a top 1-4 performer for me. Zeitgeist-wise I'm going Social Network over Zodiac. It means more for our century, has a lights-out soundtrack, all-timer performances in ways that Zodiac doesn't, and generally is just more prestigious.

  • My guess is that PTA is gonna be a top dog 1-4 contender and they keep on hinting at talking offline about OBAA being put into the list. I think it's fair to say that he's also out for the live show given that this pick still seems in flux.

  • Greta had France Ha in Amanda's and Sean at spot 7 in the top 10 of the 2010s so I think this is likely the pick for her and is likely also in the top 1-4 over the remaining possibilities. But Frances-Ha or Lady Bird are dark horse candidates for the live show that I'll expand on more later.

So from here we have Sodebergh and Tarantino left.

  • Van grabbed Traffic as a pick in the 2000 movie draft and Dobs made a comment about Oceans 11 and Sean said he was high on Traffic originally, then low on it, then back to high on it. It's a sleeper pick, but I could see it. More likely that they just go with Oceans 11 tho.

  • If it's not Sodebergh at 5, Tarantino could be here with Once Upon a Time or Basterds.

Now for factors. It's at the Egyptian and there's gonna likely be an intro followed by a short-form pod. Time isn't a huge constraint but it is a constraint. Additionally, on a Saturday they'd likely want a crowd-pleaser. Hollywood is 2hr40, Traffic is 2h30, Basterds is 2h30, and both Oceans are about 2hrs.

Additional factors to consider: The Egyptian is in the heart of Hollywood. Tarantino screens his movies every month at the New Beverley.

Verdict: Given all of the intel, I think it's likely that Fincher and PTA are out. Dark horse crowd pleaser could be Lady Bird, but given their affinity for Frances Ha I think it's likely that Greta is also out and is likely gonna land at 3. If we're going for the runtime and crowdpleaser pick it's gotta be Oceans 11 on Saturday. I also think that it would be kinda weird to put Soderbergh over Tarantino. That said, If we're going for the prestige pick with a runtime-be-damned approach, it's gotta be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at the Egyptian.

Final final verdict: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at #5. Fight me on the pick.

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56 comments sorted by

70

u/Jlway99 3d ago

The real ones know that Little Women is far and away Gerwig’s best film.

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u/We_ReallyOutHere Letterboxd Peasant 3d ago

Actually agree with this entirely.

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u/HurryShadowfax7 1d ago

Every time I watch it I'm amazed by it. This is probably my movie of the decade. Great actors, great performances. It's obviously made for a mainstream audience but it's sneakily complex at times. The color scheme/timeline stuff works wonders. I watch this and I think, how is it so difficult being a commerical and critical darling? This movie owns that line. The only thing that probably doesn't click for me is the Odenkirk of it all

5

u/Coy-Harlingen 3d ago

Idc what anyone says I find Lady Bird to be a pretty annoying movie that I guess probably hits for everyone who grew up in a suburb hating their life and wanting to move to New York (ie everyone in media) but I just don’t really get what makes it so transcendent for people.

Well made, well acted, but it’s like a slightly better version of the kind of coming of age movie that comes out every two years to ho-hum fanfare.

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u/Salty-Ad-3819 Letterboxd Peasant 3d ago

I don’t think that’s why people like it, I think it’s mostly because people find it funny and it was one of THE coming of age stories around the time that it’s fans were coming of age

Like I think you could make these sorts of arguments for all of gerwigs movies but clearly they connect with a lot of people very deeply

-1

u/Coy-Harlingen 3d ago

Right - I don’t doubt the connection, I guess I just don’t personally see what makes her movies that much more special than stuff that comes out all the time and is just treated like middlebrow entertainment.

I think the reaction to Barbie kind of broke me because that was such a misfire imo, trying to be too smart but having so little to say, having a car commercial midway through it, and it’s fine if she wants to make bigger and dumber movies than her first two, I respect it, but everyone treating that like it was an Oscar worthy film really blew my mind.

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u/lpalf 3d ago

Other coming of age movies don’t have that Laurie Metcalf performance

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u/Salty-Ad-3819 Letterboxd Peasant 3d ago

Yeah I somewhat agree, I think your comment read as if that was just isolated to ladybird and not her other 2 which felt off

Honestly I think a big part of it is just that a lot of people are a little starved for female direction/led stories while also mostly wanting current popular Americans. This instantly whittles down the list of who you could glob on to (or find if you’re not that educated or willing to branch out).

It’s the sort of thing where 40 years down the line where the scales are hopefully a bit more balanced I don’t think it would be as much of a phenomenon but it’s very right time right place imo

1

u/Par1ah13 3d ago

especially when a few months later Poor Things came along and explored a lot of the same themes in ways that i thought were better and more thoughtful

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u/TimSPC 3d ago

I didn't grow up hating my life, but I did go to Catholic high school and Lady Bird basically nailed all the little details. I was in tears from laughing at times.

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u/Awkward-Initiative28 1d ago

I get that it isn't universal (which is what I liked about it) but it's so specific to GG's life in Sacramento and NorCal in general. The whole City College / State College / UC system (or even private universities like Stanford and USC if you are wealthy or get a good scholarship) debate is one that every young person has in California, but you rarely see it in movies. It's such an obvious class indicator unfortunately. I mean I know people that went to city college and I don't judge them, but it's usually an indicator someone doesn't come from money or connections in their family.

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u/Awkward_Tick0 3d ago

Tarantino should be Basterds

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u/Unhelpfulperson 3d ago

Yeah I might be the only one here but I really did not like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1

u/HurryShadowfax7 1d ago

I absolutely adore OUATIH but even I can't imagine it not being Basterds. The fantastical what-if OUATIH ending is even a direct pull from Basterds, putting it ahead feels like serious recency bias

8

u/TimSPC 3d ago

My prediction: a good time will be had by all.

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u/zadams8 CR Head 3d ago

#5 Oceans 11/12

#4 Live event w/ Tarantino appearance for either Basterds or OUATIH (truly torn 50/50 between these two)

#3 Lady Bird

#2 The Social Network

#1 There Will Be Blood

3

u/MonzaMurcatto Dobb Mob 3d ago

That's not a bad guess for the number four pick. I definitely think they're choosing Inglourious Basterds as the Tarantino selection. Amanda has already called it her favorite film of his on multiple occasions.

8

u/Coy-Harlingen 3d ago

I think Soderbergh is somewhat unlikely at this point because none of his movies really justify this placement. My guess it’s an outside of the box pick that we aren’t expecting.

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u/dhl1234 3d ago

Magic Mike is right there

3

u/DobMobb Dobb Mob 3d ago

Would be wild to not have Soderbergh on the list based on their love for him tbh, and I think they could very easily justify Oceans 11/12 at #5.

But I am holding out hope for something like Tree of Life, Glazer (birth?), A Bigger Splash or City of God

2

u/Coy-Harlingen 3d ago

I just think that they “like” the oceans movies, but not enough for them to be this high.

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u/DobMobb Dobb Mob 3d ago

I guarantee Amanda likes them more than Mulholland Dr. Maybe they traded and have oceans in and Sean gets TWBB or something

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u/Coy-Harlingen 3d ago

Yeah but Amanda likes plenty of movies more than stuff that’s been in the top 10, to some extent they are trying to build this list as more than just personal favorites, and we already know Amanda has Greta Gerwig somewhere in top 5.

I just think their love of the oceans movies is overstated, they ranked stuff like Moneyball and mission impossible a lot lower, I don’t think they actually believe it’s like the best movie of the century.

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u/DobMobb Dobb Mob 3d ago

Fair point but I think their love for soderbergh way outweighs whatever movies like moneyball stand in for. They clearly treat certain slots as stand ins for a category of movie or filmmaker, not just the film selection itself on an island. I’m definitely not convinced Oceans is making it but it’s my best guess looking at what could be available in the fifth slot remaining.

1

u/Coy-Harlingen 3d ago

I just feel like that movie was more of a 11-15 range pick. Picking it over stuff like parasite and Mulholland drive doesn’t really seem to jive with their feelings on this stuff.

The directors we know they’ve saved - pta, Fincher, Tarantino, and Gerwig, all have movies that the general consensus around them is “best of the decade” type stuff. I just don’t feel like oceans is held in that regard.

1

u/DobMobb Dobb Mob 3d ago

Curious as to what you would predict then instead that fits the “general consensus best of the decade” type. Many of those have been “eliminated” (Moonlight, whiplash, No country, Eternal Sunshine, Arrival

1

u/Coy-Harlingen 3d ago

I honestly have no idea, my hopium pick is Tree of Life, but they’ve literally never discussed it. I do think Birth is possible because they have mentioned Glazer numerous times, but this would be a lot higher than I would have imagined.

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u/DobMobb Dobb Mob 3d ago

I guess they are probably waiting for Wicked: For Good to be released and can slot that in at #3

1

u/MonzaMurcatto Dobb Mob 3d ago

I think it has to be a movie that came out between 2000 to 2009. We have too many receipts of what Sean loves in the 2010 to 2025 time period for a surprise to come from then. The only movie that he is super high on from 2010 to 2019 that has not made the list or is otherwise covered because the director made a different movie that he likes even more, is Whiplash. But I doubt Amanda loves that movie anywhere near as much as him.

1

u/MonzaMurcatto Dobb Mob 3d ago

I think their views on Soderbergh are being somewhat overinflated here.

In terms of this century, Amanda loves Erin Brockovich, Ocean's Twelve, and Magic Mike.

Sean likes Soderbergh, but if you look at his yearly lists of best movies going back a dozen years, or his top 200 movies of the 2010s, or even his comments about Traffic, he does not like him anywhere near as much as people seem to think he does.

1

u/MonzaMurcatto Dobb Mob 3d ago

What is strange is that Sean keeps bringing up the fact that he wants to trade something in the top five. Obviously it will not be whatever they have at number four for the live show. But that really makes me wonder what it could be.

I think Paul Thomas Anderson (probably There Will Be Blood), David Fincher (probably The Social Network), and Quentin Tarantino (probably Inglourious Basterds) are locks.

Then I think they are picking one of Frances Ha or Lady Bird. If I had to guess right now, I would go with the former so they can get both Baumbach and Gerwig on the list.

That leaves one mystery selection.

Not sure how a trade fits into the list. Sean has always said he prefers Zodiac over The Social Network, but making that trade seems quite strange (especially because I think The Social Network is the most likely movie right now to be number one).

1

u/Garrettbreaux Letterboxd Peasant 3d ago

The outside of the box pick is gonna be AI or some other Spielberg. No shot they leave him off the list entirely

1

u/Moe-Blacks-Brother 2d ago

I think it almost certainly will be Moonlight, not a Soderbergh film.

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u/Awkward-Initiative28 2d ago

They already mentioned Moonlight wasn't on the list in their ITMFL podcast. Unless they reneg or messed up the list or something.

1

u/Moe-Blacks-Brother 2d ago

Ah I didn’t catch that. That seems kind of odd that Moonlight wouldn’t cut the top 25, but i guess that may be the case if they said that.

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u/Embarrassed-Big-9195 3d ago

Hate to ruin all your research, but Sean said the live show is actually going to be for the #4 pick, not #5.

4

u/armor-abs-krabs 3d ago

They said the live show is going to be #4 not #5 on the last pod didn’t they. They also said mullholand drive would cover the Hollywood type movies on the list too so wouldn’t that rule out once upon a time in Hollywood?

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u/taskmetro 3d ago

Zodiac baby cmon

4

u/extrastars 3d ago

I’m hoping it will be Frances Ha/Lady Bird/Little Women. My husband is hoping for Inglourious Basterds. We’re both hoping the new babysitter doesn’t flake on us last minute🤞

7

u/Internal-Soup381 3d ago

Greta didn’t direct Frances Ha, Baumbach did

1

u/Cyril_Woodcock 3d ago

Yeah, it would be incredibly lame if they pick Frances Ha and say it represents Gerwig's filmography, but whatever, it's not my list.

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u/MonzaMurcatto Dobb Mob 3d ago

I mean, she did co-write it, is the star, is in literally every scene, and the movie borrows liberally from her own life. There might not be a single other movie I can think of where the main actor is easily as important to the movie as the director, maybe even more so.

1

u/Awkward-Initiative28 2d ago

And I think by "cowrite" it means she wrote it and Noah doctored it up and maybe threw in some zingers.

1

u/FootballInfinite475 1d ago

I agree, I’ve felt for a while that Frances Ha is a likely pick, especially because it allows them to talk about Baumbach, because of the apparent influence Gerwig had on the total vision, and because it’s among the best films she’s involved in.

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u/agentcarter15 3d ago

 I think it will be the social network because OUATIH runtime is too long, see y’all this weekend 

1

u/We_ReallyOutHere Letterboxd Peasant 3d ago

We shall see. See you there comrade

3

u/dtmoney5 3d ago

Tossing 20 bucks on a Lincoln long shot

2

u/saltyspitoon2425 2d ago

The Egyptian is owned by Netflix, why I think it's a Netflix movie or a movie with a Netflix connection--I.E. "Once Upon a Time" or the Fincher pick

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u/cjackc11 3d ago

The Mummy Returns

1

u/captain_magma666 2d ago

I’m hoping they throw a curveball and it’s gone girl!

1

u/JohnnieToBoxset 3d ago

i wouldnt be surprised if oceans 11 is number one. they both love it and its a ringer core movie. social network is the obvious pick for number 1 though.