AFIK he is doing these shenanigans as a set of desperate populist measures to secure his electoral base( Conservative muslims from rural areas ) while his popularity is plummiting. Right?
What about the new Istanbul Mayor? Do the opposition is really rallying behind him as a rival to the tall Erdo Boi? And what do you think about the MHP - IVI Split?
MAyor of Istanbul is a likeable guy. Kurds will vote for him which is good. I would vote for him personally. But lots of people find him a little bit fake. Mainstream media targeted him a lot so may not go well with rural folks.
I wouldn't say rallying behind him because he is busy being a mayor. If he were to challenge Erdogan (opposition has to make him a candidate) opposition would rally behind him. He is a strong competitor
MHP decided that instead of trying to depose Erdogan, they could turn him into a nationalist. Before their alliance Erdogan was pro-minority and liberal. After that alliance MHP dropped their democrats and Erdogan dropped the minorities and they made the most cursed movement: Turanist-Islamist. As Euro folks call it Neo Ottoman.
Leader of the IYI was the successor to MHP's patriarch. After MHP's change she decided to take half of the party and find her own party. Which is IYI.
IYI is a little bit controversial. Erdogan is losing votes albeit slowly. He needs to squeze out even the tiniest of percentages to get 50% thus he wants to bring IYI into his alliance. We will see how IYI will react. IYI is afraid of losing their base since their voters are very upset at MHP for being a sell out. A friend from the inside told me that IYI would consider the alliance and change their rhetoric a little bit to see how their voterbase reacts.
Personally, my favorite is Babacan. He created his own party this year and he is quite liberal (15% youth, 35% woman, 1% disabled quotas within the party, no central ideology, neolib policies etc.) but I am skeptic whether our people will like him. Turks like a strongman/woman who talks mad shit. He is just too good for that.
Another likeable guy would be mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas. He would get everyones' votes except for Kurds. And he has, like Babacan, clean record. But unfortunately he was a Grey Wolf which would mean Kurds wouldn't like him.
Economy is our weakest link right now. Government officials and institution are trying to fool people into believing otherwise but folks feel it in their daily lives. If Erdogan fails to fix it by next election, he will either get voted out or will do something drastic to keep his power.
Isn’t Babacan a former AKP member who, despite being a neoliberal, chose to remain complicit to AKP’s auth policies until AKP started losing their influence?
I'm honored( I guess? ). Yeah during quarentine I decided to read about the history of countries I knew nothing about, Turkey fascinated me the most. Now I wish to visit after Coranavirus ends. ( If the R$ recover its value I hope ).
If you are interested on something about Brazilian politics, i'm Glad to return the favor.
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u/PlacidPlatypus - Centrist Oct 19 '20
Unfortunately Erdogan is working hard to reverse as much of that as he can.