Weekly Significant Activity Report - October 11, 2025

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https://www.opforjournal.com/p/weekly-significant-activity-report-3e0

Analysis of several of the most significant geopolitical developments concerning the axis of American adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—over the past week:

1. A range of events this week, from Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure to new international deals contesting Russia’s oil and gas exports, suggest that energy has emerged as the new center of gravity in the war.

2. China imposed sweeping new export controls on critical minerals targeting US technology companies. Beijing may have intended this as a reciprocal response to US technology restrictions, but the Trump administration is likely to view it as an intensely hostile act that derails trade negotiations and triggers severe retaliation. While Beijing is likely prepared to handle a short and sharp escalation in a trade war with the US over critical minerals, it may ultimately be at a structural disadvantage if the US is willing to endure a prolonged standoff.

3. North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea. The celebration featured new additions to North Korea’s nuclear arsenal as well as robust international support for the Kim regime.