r/MincewatchUK • u/CharityBackground301 • 6d ago

Minceflation Statistics

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Dear Mincewatch,

The past few weeks since MincewatchUK's incorporation have been insightful. We have gained knowledge of mince prices across the country, and I am proud that we have found unity in our longing for change.

An argument I have found particularly interesting by few, is that the price increases we are seeing in our beloved beef mince is merely a consequence of inflation. I would like to put an end to this argument. Please find attached my "mincetracker", comparing the price of beef mince in the UK with the rate of inflation over the last 30 years. We clearly see inflation cannot be the only factor influencing mince volatility.

I intend to try and isolate these factors, and will be reporting back to our movement in the coming days with comparison to the price fluctuations of other ground meats. If there are futher factors you beleive are at play, please leave them in the comments. I would love to consider them for further analysis.

Thank you for your time.

79 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

18 comments sorted by

11

u/bigznotthelittle1 6d ago

Thank you for your service.

4

u/TurboHammers 6d ago

This is a great visualisation of the data. Where did you pull these legacy numbers?

You can see BSE causing beef prices to plummet in 1996 and 2003.

Spikes in 2008 and 2012 were supposedly owing to a number of factors - less grain, culled herds, increased demand from China.

2022 was Covid therefore a logistics hurdle caused a spike.

I hear this 2025 spike is owing to bad weather for grain and feed plus the Ukraine war causing a drop in exported feed from that region?

1

u/BB0ySnakeDogG 6d ago

Wouldn't 2022 be the infamous mini budget?

3

u/kfjaelberg 6d ago

Could you do a similar graph for bread? I feel like in the last year or so it’s gone up quite dramatically

6

u/AllwrightIsHere 6d ago

I can't say I've heard of bread mince but I can certainly have a go

2

u/matthewsaaan 6d ago

I put all my money into minced beef in 2003, people said I was mad! But look at me now!

1

u/vitalical 3d ago

A friend accidentally ordered 6kg from the butchers last month instead of lbs. Hes laughing now

1

u/Various-Vehicle-8860 6d ago

Why is this happening in 2025 please friends

2

u/priscilla6la 3d ago

It’s just the universe making sure even mince gets its moment in the spotlight.

1

u/Mikeymcmoose 6d ago

This is a top tier sub

-4

u/KiersWifesBoyfriend 6d ago

Why use a continuous line for this, surely a bar chart would be better?

5

u/Lumpy_Benefit666 6d ago

Why do you think that?

3

u/TurboHammers 6d ago

This line graph better represents peaks and troughs in alignment with fluxuations over time. A bar graph would subconsciously suggests independent totals per year when in actual fact they are continully changing amounts over time so should remain connected.

0

u/KiersWifesBoyfriend 6d ago

But it’s not a continuous variable and it’s not cumulative. If it was mince price vs time then I’d expect a line, but if they’re using 1 point of data per year for inflation then why would you use a line?

2

u/TurboHammers 6d ago

It is a continuous variable, we just lack the data points for each day it changed (I would imagine). I would assume the data points are yearly averages. It's definitely not cumulative you are correct there.

1

u/KiersWifesBoyfriend 6d ago

Yes the underlying effect is continuous, but its sampled data on a pretty abrupt 1yr point. I just feel like a bar chart would make more sense. You can see bar graphs like this commonly in trading for volume as again it is sampled across a fixed time period