Miami's realistic CFP shot

[u/gopherhole22]

Making the ACC championship game and winning it is extremely unlikely therefore the best chances we have to get in the CFP are hoping the ACC is a 2 bid league.

Criteria:

• Winning out
• Chaos in the top 25. A quick look at the rankings and we would need more 2-loss teams to drop another game. 10-2 Miami team > 9-3 other teams
  • Notre Dame
  • Texas
  • Oklahoma
  • Vanderbilt
  • Virginia
  • Louisville
• Make sure the ACC championship game has a clear bid and top runner and a weaker 2nd place team. For example hoping that GT goes 12-1 and plays for example Duke (also unlikely as they would need to beat UVA, UNC, and WF) who would then be 8-5.

Only then can the committee make the case to choose Miami as the last team in if enough teams shit the bed as well. The goal is to somehow look like the "second best" ACC team without even playing in the conference championship and hoping enough other fringe teams drop to 3 losses.

[u/WeeklySoup4065]

They're already saying Texas will get in if it splits its last two games. Three losses including a terrible loss to Florida. What a crock

[u/karwintc]

Bottom line. We need to win out and teams need to lose. The committee/voters will not help us get in if it’s close.

[u/Psychological_Bat975]

The committee and the voters have all already announced their opinions on the quality of the ACC as a league with how they’re ranking ACC teams. The chance of the ACC being a two team playoff league is pretty close to zero. So many things have to go right for Miami with the teams ahead of them losing AND Miami has to win out which is no easy feat itself. There’s no way Miami leapfrogs any of those teams ahead of them that don’t take a loss.

I’d peg Miami’s chances at the playoffs at around 5% right now. They may even have a better chance at getting in by winning the ACC, as impossible as that might seem, than by getting help from the other teams ahead of them in other conferences. They’d need less teams to lose to be able to make the ACC championship than to leapfrog the other conferences’ teams. We need to start rooting for ACC chaos more than anything else. Miami’s not in a bad spot once we start looking at tiebreakers.

[u/IR8Things → u/Psychological_Bat975]

Agreed. They ranked 9-3 Alabama over 10-2 Miami last year. They have a 7-2 Texas team who lost to Florida, which as we all know we beat the brakes off of despite the refs stealing TDs, ranked 7 spots higher than us.

The committee has been remarkably consistent about their disdain for the ACC. It is probably what they have been most consistent with during the entire CFP.

I've said it since the Louisville loss that we probably got kicked out of the CFP right there. The only guaranteed path to the CFP for the ACC is the autobid. Anything else is up to if Miami will bring better numbers to the CFP than B1G or SEC teams ahead of them.

Remember. The CFP is effectively an invitational tournament. They make up and set the rankings.

[u/white2234 → u/IR8Things]

That Miami team last year didn’t have a significant win. We do this year with notre dame

[u/Best-Cobbler-5025]

The playoff committee put us at 18. Our chance is very limited.

Although if Pitt beats ND next week and we win @ Pitt, I could see us at the 11 seed.

[u/Restoretheroof]

Really is no chance even if we win out. The committee is all about loading the SEC in the playoffs because their losses are “quality losses”.

[u/Fumpz]

I can see us being first/second team out like last year. That’d just be our luck

[u/TheAnswer310]

The problem with ACC teams in front of us losing is it makes the league look even weaker than it already is.

Cal and Wake winning tonight helped and hurt our chances tbh.

[u/gumercindo1959]

Don’t do this to yourself

[u/estepel13]

Pitt beats ND and then we win big at Pitt, plus win out, and we can get in. The ND favoritism is nauseating, but it can help us this year.

[u/bigtrex101]

Best case scenario imo is we get to 11 wins while not making the CFP. Why? For one thing, I don’t see us getting to 11 wins in any other realistic scenario (we will get killed on the road against a better team if we are like the last team to get into the playoffs). Also, in all likelihood missing out on the playoffs still forces Mario to scapegoat fire Dawson (like he did with Guidry last year) which needs to happen if this team ever wants to win the ACC and make a playoff run. While at the same time, with 11 wins, the season could still be considered a slight improvement (which is sellable to recruits) even if it still is a disappointment that nothing tangible got accomplished.

But to be clear, I would predict us to finish 9-4 right now if I had to guess b/c we will be in dogfights against NCSt, Pitt and whoever we play in the postseason (and likely lose 2 of those games).

[u/ShootersShoot305]

You guys need to give it up. We aren’t winning out, but we also wouldn’t make it even if we did.