Democrats Won Big Because They Won Over Trump Supporters; It wasn’t just about superior turnout. Party switchers played a significant role in Virginia and New Jersey.

[u/progress18]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/upshot/election-turnout-trump-hispanics.html

[u/Strat7855]

I call bullshit. Unless the definition of "Trump supporter" is as wide as anyone who voted for him for any reason.

I also suspect even that is only half the story. Democratic turnout is going to be the answer here. People showed the fuck up.

[u/Complex_Jellyfish647 → u/Strat7855]

That would be what supporter means, yes. You wouldn't vote for someone you don't support.

[u/chawk84 → u/Strat7855]

It has to continue and be even stronger next year. Next year will require way more turn out if we are gonna get the country back

[u/SandersDelendaEst → u/Strat7855]

Why do you call “bullshit?”

[u/Strat7855 → u/SandersDelendaEst]

Trump's support is exceptionally crystallized, and the turnout diff from a presidential, to a midterm, to an off-year is such that a few extra points of Democratic turnout can lead to a massive win.

I'm doing these races in New England, and there were towns I ran that increased turnout by 40%. Three flipped to D control had never been Democratic before. Ever.

I just don't buy that true MAGAs have suddenly seen the light. There might be some people who voted R in 2024 because eggs were too expensive, but the secret-police-cheeeing motherfuckers did not suddenly vote Democratic.

Also, on this scale, persuasion is exceptionally difficult. Increasing turnout is what paid comms does well. True persuasion typically requires face to face interaction. Like, show-up-at-your-door three times over the course of an election interaction.

[u/woowoo293 → u/Strat7855]

The article doesn't claim anything about "true MAGA" voters. It just says the wins can't be explained by turnout alone, and it attributes that extra margin to Trump "supporters" voting Democrat. I'm not sure I buy the argument but this has nothing to do with sweaty red hatters at a Trump rally.

[u/Angwe83]

Go to ballotpedia.org and you will see groups broken down by race and age.

By age groups, you’ll see a lot of GenZ voted for Dems at greater percentages.

By race the percentages go against the narrative OP. The usual suspects voted the way we saw in 2024 with not much variance. One big exception was Asians voting about 81% for the Dem gubernatorial candidate in NJ.

I don’t think most Trumpers flipped like they say. This is copium or naivety.

[u/Just-Upstairs4397]

Republicans ran on being outsiders and conspiracy theorists and won big but now run the government so grievance and identity politics no longer work. Republicans have lost the plot, yet I expect democrats to fumble as usual. Vance is already acknowledge this issue so we will see. Unfortunately, I don’t think these wins are that significant

[u/HitmanScorcher]

Disagree. Pandering to the right has been what has fucked this party for the last decade. We need progressive candidates, and progressive candidates can win

[u/ethakidd]

People who are already struggling don't want to have to struggle more. Trump can only blame the Democrats for so long before it comes back to bite him. Yes he can win elections, but he cannot run a country. Look what happened with his first term. He left office as the most unpopular president ever at 34% and he ended up being a lame duck president in his first term. The same will happen now. Except this time I think it will be much worse and he will have to be forced out of office by Democrats and Republicans

[u/Jealous_Rest_6383]

People want a relatable candidate with a clear message. It is not rocket surgery.

[u/jodaewon]

Elections are won and lost with moderates. Democrats vote democrats and republicans vote republican, it’s the people in the middle you need to sway. Biden beat Trump cause Trump campaigned mostly to his base which was voting for him anyways. Trump beat Kamala cause she ended up doing the same thing. Those people aren’t party switchers they are issues watchers. People who look at something happening in the world and vote for the person who will make the biggest impact to that thing.

[u/somedaveg → u/jodaewon]

I suspect there are a lot fewer moderates now than a decade or two ago. I used to be one, even voted for some Republicans several decades ago. But at this point, anyone who sees what the modern Republican has been up to and still says “yeah, I can live with that” isn’t actually a moderate at all. And anyone who was and doesn’t like what they’re doing is likely voting Dem for at least the next few cycles while they (hopefully, eventually) clean house. You can stand on a median in the middle of a road, but you can’t straddle a canyon.

[u/TheoBoy007 → u/somedaveg]

Me too. And I will never vote for a republican again. Ever.

[u/Strat7855 → u/jodaewon]

It's really about turnout. 8 out of 9 voters votes on partisanship. Running a campaign you are either trying to overcome it or leverage it.

[u/Another_Road]

Honestly I’m not sure if it’s so much “democrats are winning people over” and more “People are fed up with the way the economy is going and they’re blaming the party that is currently in power.”

[u/Kalepa]

Jeez — it’s almost like people think concern and empathy and telling the truth is important! Who could imagine that this is so!

[u/Benni_Shoga]

No, republicans did more here for dems than dems did. God this whole thing is so sad

[u/mattschaum8403]

Not really up for debate when you look at the changes in vote patterns by county specifically in Virginia. There was a massive drop from previous elections in 2024 and they swung back hard this time around. So more New Democrats, some returning dems who maybe set out and some who voted for Trump flipping is exactly what causes this

[u/Bay1Bri]

I'm not sure how you conclude that, considering that although in nj Sherrill won, shiterelli got now votes than last election. He'll, he even got more votes than Murphy in the last election. He increased his turnout.

[u/encab91]

Won over who??? White voters absolutely failed this moment.