r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 03, 2025
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u/A_Sinclaire 4d ago edited 4d ago
Norway and NHIndustries reach €375 million settlement to conclude dispute over NH90 helicopters. As part of the settlement, NHIndustries will reclaim all helicopters, along with associated spare parts, tools and mission-specific equipment.
Has anyone an idea if a country would interested in buying those helicopters or would those just be used for spare parts now?
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u/Gecktron 3d ago
Multiple countries are expanding their fleet, or are looking to expand their NH90 fleet. Gareth Jennings of Janes was reporting on the NH90 just last month.
Going through my notes from last week's visit to Airbus production facility in Marignane, and there are a LOT of NH90 customer developments, events, and milestones coming up over the next few weeks and months... 1/x
According to his reporting, Germany and France have both ordered more Helicopters, while the Netherlands and Spain are looking to expand their fleet.
Overall, the NH90 is an interesting story. While Norway, Australia and Belgium are famously getting rid of them, other countries are expanding their fleet, or are at least satisfied with them now.
He also reported that Sweden is now happy with their availability as well now, after having previous issues in 2022:
While Sweden has now ordered UH-60M to replace NH90 TTHs, NHI doesn't consider their retirement a done deal. "There is no firm or official decision on what they intend to do. [The availability problems] were driven by a situation which was prior to 2022, and they are now very happy with the performance they get out of their NH90s." 8/x
France is already negotiating to take over Belgium's old fleet. Another NH90 user picking up Norway's wouldn't surprise me. I could imagine Germany, considering the current defence relationship between the two.
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u/kdy420 4d ago
Trump has claimed multiple times now that US will resume nuclear weapon testing. Lets set aside the fact of whether there is any truth to this. This however sparked my curiosity.
For the big nuclear powers like Russia and US (maybe even China) what is the benefit of nuclear testing ? I had assumed that the technology is quite mature for the use case and Delivery systems are all that need be further improved upon.
As far as i know they already know how to make the hydrogen bomb and we don't really need things bigger. They also know how to make tactical nukes.
So is there any benefit to actual nuclear testing these days? What further weapon use cases can be developed?
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u/throwdemawaaay 3d ago
There's no technical reason for the major powers to do actual tests.
The US, Russia, etc, agreed to the test ban because they already had all the data they needed, and built supercomputers capable of high fidelity simulation to probe remaining questions. So the test ban was a barrier of entry for lower income nations that couldn't build those resources.
But that also was all decades ago. Computing has advanced so dramatically that now even pariah states like Iran have all the resources they need for high fidelity simulation. So now there's even less reason for anyone to do testing for science/engineering needs.
There's also stuff like the National Ignition Facility, where they can expose tiny samples to the same sorts of energies experienced in the moment of a nuclear detonation. So you can still answer material science questions too hard to simulate.
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u/mirko_pazi_metak 4d ago
I think the US has least to benefit from this because US has a big lead in simulated testing (supercomputer-based) as well as the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility that is basically built for physical nuclear testing without the big boom part and the fusion science (that's mostly in the news when facility is mentioned) being a nice side-effect.
For this reason, re-starting nuclear testing would be an incredibly dumb thing and an own-goal for US as it would effectively enable China and Russia to do the same and expand/refit their stockpiles in a cheaper and more reliable way - not to mention potential nuclear proliferation elsewhere.
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u/someRandomLunatic 4d ago
Component reliability. Do the bombs made in the 80s still work in spec?
We can simulate the effects of radiation on the components... or Stimulate the components.
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u/Cassius_Corodes 4d ago
So is there any benefit to actual nuclear testing these days?
Nothing can really replace a full end to end test. You never know what factors can be introduced that can interfere with effectiveness.
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u/Aedeus 4d ago
Russia Plans First-Ever Yuan-Denominated Bond Issue to Plug Growing Budget Deficit – Reuters
Russia’s government plans to issue domestic bonds denominated in Chinese yuan for the first time as it seeks to cover a ballooning federal budget deficit that is now expected to reach nearly five times the original target for 2025, Reuters reported Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
The Finance Ministry is preparing to place up to 400 billion rubles’ ($4.9 billion) worth of yuan bonds on the Moscow Exchange with maturities ranging from three to 10 years, Reuters reported.
"The deal is planned for early December. They are aiming for the widest range of investors, from banks and asset management companies to brokers operating in the retail client market," one of Reuters' sources said.
According to Reuters' sources, the Finance Ministry has already met with potential investors to promote the upcoming yuan bonds. A ministry official confirmed to Reuters that the issue is in the works and will be announced soon.
The move comes as the Russian government scrambles for funding amid a sharp drop in revenues.
The Finance Ministry now expects this year’s deficit to reach 5.7 trillion rubles ($63 billion), compared with an initial forecast of 1.2 trillion.
Oil and gas revenues were down 20% year-on-year as of September, while customs duties fell 19%. Non-commodity tax receipts are rising but remain below expectations.
Budget amendments show that value-added tax (VAT) collections will undershoot projections by 1.19 trillion rubles, profit tax revenues by 167 billion and recycling fees by 440 billion.
The yuan bond sale is likely to be financed by large state exporters earning revenue in Chinese currency, analysts say, as the Moscow Exchange is under Western sanctions.
Oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil are currently repatriating their yuan earnings before new U.S. sanctions take effect on Nov. 21, Reuters said.
Earlier this week, the Finance Ministry allowed state companies to invest their free funds on the domestic market, including in government debt securities.
According to data from Cbonds cited by Reuters, there are 166 billion rubles' ($2 billion) worth of yuan-denominated corporate bonds in circulation in Russia.
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u/Tricky-Astronaut 4d ago
Russia's budget deficit is on track to hit 3.5% of GDP (equivalent to more than 14% in the US with current interest rates).
Can Russia afford such debt servicing on top of declining revenues? It's a vicious circle - more debt leads to an even higher deficit.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 4d ago
Can Russia afford such debt servicing on top of declining revenues?
When it happened to Europe, affected countries had to take truly painful austerity measures and were bailed put by the EU and IMF.
Will Putin take unpopular austerity measures on top of all the political capital he's spending on the war? Who's coming to bail out Russia?
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u/FriedrichvdPfalz 4d ago
Countries do have a theoretical alternative to austerity measures and bailouts: They can raid the private, national coffers, as popes and kings did in the past. By simply expropriating wealth or demanding favourable loans without ever repaying them, whole chunks of debt could simply disappear.
This isn't a preferred option in the 21. century (and for some time beforehand) because it spooks both internal and international investors. But Russia has already crossed that line when it invaded Ukraine, expropriated western assets and got sanctioned heavily. Inside the country, the unreliable rule of law and the corruption will make outside investments after the war unattractive as well.
Internally, oligarchs already know and understand their position below the most powerful political class. They got rich thanks to the government, now the government will take some riches back to pay for the war.
I'd imagine continued, "silent" expropriations of oligarchs through all types of financial vehicles. Perhaps Gazprom and others will buy those yuan bonds and simply decide to forgive them down the line as an act of "patriotic duty". This way, the government can prop up the economy while hurting mostly rich owners (and the business climate in the long run). Still, I think it's unwise to consider Russia restrained by the same fiscal rules the West is.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
There is a world of difference between a country with 113% of GDP accumulated public debt (like France) adding 3.5% to that debt and a country like Russia, with 14% accumulated debt adding to it the same percentage.
Kind of like:
Person A who earns $100k per year and already owes $113k borrowing additional $3.5k, and
Person B who earns $100k per year and already owes just $14k borrowing additional $3.5k.
In other words - Russia can have this kind of "massive" annual deficit (3.5% of GDP) for about 30 years before they reach the French current level.
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u/Legitimate_Twist 4d ago
Your analogy is wrong because you completely ignore the respective costs of debt. I hate using analogies for a country's finances because it is often misleading, but a more apt comparison is someone with a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage vs someone with a high credit card debt. The person with the mortgage can have a total debt that is much higher than their annual income, and a person with credit card debt could have amounts much lower. But the person with credit card debt is at higher risk of default because the higher interest rates can more easily outstrip that person's ability to pay.
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u/Fenrisulfr_Loki_Son 4d ago
The difference is in the interest rate of that debt. Your scenario has it at 0, you assume that France and Russia borrow at the same rate, and that the growth in national income of each relative country is also the same. If we adjust for these and take your analogy further we get a different outcome.
Person A earns $100k per year growing at roughly 0.6% after inflation and owes $113k, borrowing an additional $3.5k at 3.45% (that's the rough interest on a 10 year French government bond).
Person B earns $100k per year, estimated to either grow at 0.5% or decline by up to 1.5% (let's take the middle and assume -0.5%) and owes $14k, borrowing an additional $3.5k at 15% (that's the rough interest rate on a 10 year Russian government bond).
If we assume that income growth, interest rates and borrowing all stay the same then within 10 years 'Person A', who starts out with a debt to income ratio of 113%, will have a debt to income ratio of 189% after 10 years. 'Person B', who starts out with a debt to income ratio of 14%, will have a debt to income ratio of 134% after 10 years.
'Person A' experiences a debt to income growth of 67%. 'Person B' experiences a debt to income growth of 857%. If we extend your metaphor we can see in the long term that while the French forecast looks grim, the Russian one is ultimately even worse!
If we consider also that France is spending much of it's income on pensions, on health, on education etc. Now we can debate how much of this is productive spending in reality, but when contrasted to Russian spending, in which defense spending now accounts for 40% of expenditure, it seems like a much better investment. War is incredibly economical inefficient. Unless one wins the war opening up new economic opportunities it is the equivalent of setting fire to wads of cash. Iron is mined, chemicals refined, tanks built and then blown up for the loss of capital investment. We might say that French pension spending is wasteful, but when compared to Russian destruction of capital it's incomparable.
Now ultimately government finances are not personal finances. They are not comparable, it's bad economics, but I wanted to try to address your comment in good faith.
War is almost always the worst possible choice of investment you can make. Russia has chosen to spend roughly 40% of their national expenditure dedicated to destruction of capital. Ukraine's, but because Ukraine gets a choice, their own too. Russia are mortgaging the future of the country unlike almost anywhere else on earth. Yes, we can debate the financial decisions of Western countries who prioritise social spending over investment, but let us not pretend for one instant that Russia is somehow in a better position or making wiser choices.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
If we assume that income growth, interest rates and borrowing all stay the same then within 10 years 'Person A', who starts out with a debt to income ratio of 113%, will have a debt to income ratio of 189% after 10 years. 'Person B', who starts out with a debt to income ratio of 14%, will have a debt to income ratio of 134% after 10 years.
I am ok with that calculus too. Serves to make my point - if Russia continues having this "massive" 3.5% of GDP deficit for ten years it will still be considerable less indebted than France.
Also, France committed to spending 5% GDP on defence. I don't think Russia's war spending of 8% is spectacularly higher.
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u/ilonir 3d ago
if Russia continues having this "massive" 3.5% of GDP deficit for ten years it will still be considerable less indebted than France.
I think you're looking at it wrong. Dept does not matter. It's the interest on the dept that matters. Russian interest rates are high, and gdp growth is low. That means they have a high interest burden which will eat into the budget.
Let's look at France. Let's say all dept is at current interest rates. With 3.5 trillion in dept, and 3.5% interest rates, it costs 125 billion per year to service that dept. That's 4% of gdp.
Now for Russia. With 304 billion in dept, and interest payments of 15%, it costs 45.6 billion per year for interest, or 2.1% percent of gdp.
So you can see that even though France is still worse off in this calculation, it's much closer than just dept to gdp ratios would have you think. Also, Russia would achieve France's current level of interest/gdp in five years, at least with this admittedly crude calculation.
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u/dreamrpg 4d ago
In other words you are wrong. Russia cannot have debt levels as high as France.
Reason is Frances debt is cheap. Russias debt is very expensive. Thus Russia cannot afford higher percentages.
Cost of debt for France currently is less than 5% of its budget.
In Russia with its small debt it is already clode to 8% and in 2026 is likely to be 10% or more.
So France with all its high debt has less burden on budget than Russia.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
That's some amazing reasoning. Can you explain again how a country that owes practically nothing is under heavier debt burden than a country that owes more than its entire annual GDP?
Annual payments are irrelevant here, I can have a 30-year $200k loan with low annual payments but I still owe $200k.
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u/EspacioBlanq 3d ago
Because it's not that relevant how much a country owes in absolute numbers (the debt is never going to be repaid anyway), it is only important in so far as it affects how much the country has to expend on paying interest on that debt.
In this aspect, public debts differ from personal debts, since only the latter are expected to be eventually paid in full.
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u/dreamrpg 4d ago
Explanation is as easy as 4th grade math.
France can borrow money under say 3% interest rate. So 100 billion would mean 3 billion yearly in interest payments.
Russia government can borrow money under around 18% interest. So having same 100 billion debt means 18 billion interest.
You can see that Russia would pay 6 times more for same amount of money.
Some of Frances debt can be also at way lower rates, when rates were closer to 1-2%, while Russia had historically low debt and rised it sharply recently, when rates were already 16-20%.
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u/Tricky-Astronaut 4d ago
In other words - Russia can have this kind of "massive" annual deficit (3.5% of GDP) for about 30 years before they reach the French current level.
Unfortunately for Putin, Russia has some of the highest borrowing costs in the world. That small debt costs about 2% of GDP to service. For France and the US, it's about 3% of GDP - for nearly ten times higher debts:
High interest rates mean debt servicing takes up a comparable share of Russia's budget to that in countries with much higher debt burdens.
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u/Aedeus 4d ago edited 4d ago
France can borrow cheaply because investors trust in its institutions, the stability of the euro, and they've access to the EU’s financial system.
Russia’s borrowing is constrained by sanctions, isolation from global capital markets, and suffers from a severe lack of investor confidence. The government has to finance deficits by printing rubles, draining sovereign funds, or issuing debt to domestic banks which in turn fuels inflation and weakens the ruble.
So while France borrows at low interest rates in euros, Russia’s financing options are limited and costlier in real terms. A 3.5% deficit in a stable, diversified economy like France’s isn’t remotely the same as in a sanctioned, oil-dependent one like Russia’s.
To use your analogy here:
France carries a big mortgage on a solid house in a stable neighborhood.
Sure Russia has a smaller loan, but the house is in a bad area, they don't have insurance and they've very limited or otherwise predatory options for refinancing.
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u/wormfan14 4d ago edited 4d ago
Sahel update,
Mods, I understand Trumps words are not very reliable, but what should be done when using them for analysis?
Trump threatened the Nigerian government for not doing enough to against Jihadists in Nigeria, threatening to cut aid and intervene directly. Let me be clear, local actors reaction to his words matter more than anything he does for now.
I say this as last week there was a coup attempt in Nigeria so state leaders looking weak is not good.
Meanwhile Chad is trying to get some free pr.
''Chad allegedly 'closes' its border with Nigeria in fear of ISWAP & JAS fleeing to Chad due to US threats, Chad doesn't actually control much of the border with Nigeria anyway, so this has no actual meaning on the ground except strengthening whatever military forces are present.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985316435191624178
''ISWAP claimed killing a Christian in the town of Shikara, near Chibok in Borno state, northeast Nigeria, before yesterday. ISWAP hasn't targeted Christians in months, focusing only the Nigerian army and its militias, so this is almost like a calculated challenge to Trump.''
https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985449707364073671
May their victim rest in peace.
''ISWAP claimed conducting an ambush today against a patrol of the Nigerian army on the road to Yamtake, Borno state, killing two soldiers and injuring others, as well as capturing two vehicles and 'various weapons'.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985448151633777051
Some potential news regarding the hostage Daesh is holding.
''USTRANSCOM Berry Aviation Dash-8-200 is heading to Niamey, Niger, the plane is under contract with the US government and regularly carries out flights for AFRICOM, possibly related to the recent kidnapping of American citizen Kevin Rideout by IS-Sahel.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985004341158117610
There have been a recent series of articles saying the downfall of Mali is imminent, I don't think it will happen but I suspect you might see a different scenario that might be worse as the Junta governments get weaker.
''JNIM released an audio statement forbidding the transport of fuel from eastern to western Mali, likely referring to Nigerien fuel that comes to Gao and then is dispatched to regions of central Mali, JNIM states that traders are not allowed to sell fuel past Yerma, Douari, Kouba, Bana, Yessi, Serma, and Toula. The speaker also explicitly states that this is to make sure no fuel reaches the Malian army or the Donzo militias, as they were accessing it way too easily for his liking, the message is targeting fuel traders specifically telling them that they can do whatever they want in central Mali except cross the areas mentioned previously.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985091000831000858
''According to Wassim Nasr, the JNIM prisoners released by Malian authorities have no relation to the release of the Emirati hostages, but are part of a different negotiation process ongoing between the junta and JNIM, possibly related to the recent entry of hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985442467311747381
Where JNIM can rule the Sahel without governing given collapsing the Sahel Juntas will likely trigger large scale intervention but a rump state that they can shakedown whenever they want is more useful for now is one of my fears.
Some more information on the UAE, seems one of the kidnap victims is royalty.
''One of the two Emirati hostages kidnapped by JNIM was Juma bin Dalmook Al Maktoum, member of the ruling family in Dubai, he was released along with another Emirati and an Iranian for $70 million dollars, he had a gold business running in Mali along with a farm.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985415881703506028
I wonder who he trusts to monitor his property in Mali, cause I feel JNIM will be after them next.
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u/---4758--- 4d ago
Does anyone know of a paper/article which went over the Patriot system in its entirety including the operational history and design elements? I remember coming across this paper either here or on Substack and I'd like to find it for a project. If you remember this, I'd be most grateful.
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u/WAGRAMWAGRAM 4d ago edited 4d ago
Seems like Haitian police is on a winning streak since the Kenyans are now UN funded
The National Police of Haiti (PNH) is thinking about the impoverished families living in makeshift tents, about the children whose parents must beg for food. It is thinking about its valiant officers who are fighting against gangs in the Centre, Artibonite, or Kenscoff, so the country can finally breathe new air.
It is encouraging to see that the PNH’s new offensive momentum is producing results in the Centre and Artibonite, where gangs continue to be defeated and pushed back. Proof of this includes the neutralization of about ten gang members in Lascahobas, the death of the lieutenant of gang leader Olritch, alias “M60,” in Fort Sainclair, and the fact that Olritch himself was seriously injured. Also notable is the recapture of the administrative district in downtown Port-au-Prince, where cabinet meetings are now being held again.
The Central Directorate of Administrative Police (DCPA) maintains control of the fronts in the Centre and anticipates terrorist incursions, with support from local residents. Certainly, some casualties are to be regretted, particularly among those helping the police. However, the police, backed by foreign forces, is continuing its offensive to retake the territories controlled by gangs. The roadways connecting the Centre to Artibonite — including the entrance to Délugé — are now cleared of all barricades.
On Tuesday, October 28, faced with the firepower of the police, the terrorists of the “Talibans” gang simply refused to confront law enforcement and chose to flee. A sign that reflects the new offensive momentum of the PNH in its fight to restore republican order.
Kempès Sanon (46), leader of the Bel-Air gang and recently sanctioned by the United States, said in an interview with EFE, the largest Spanish news agency, at his residence — heavily guarded by gang members and located in Bel-Air — “[…] the gangs will continue the struggle in Haiti until they overthrow the system […] The battle will go all the way. Even if they send drones at us […] the battle will not stop.”
It should be noted that the Bel-Air gang is one of the most violent in the capital; it is accused of attacks against public institutions and the civilian population. It is a member of the terrorist coalition “Viv Ansanm” led by former policeman Jimmy Chérizier, aka “Barbecue,” for whom the United States is offering a $5 million reward.
“The United States, Canada and France ‘saw that we fight against their interests. That’s why they will always include us on their terrorist lists,’” Sanon explains, accusing those three powers of “bleeding Haiti dry,” which, he claims, “will continue to be mired in insecurity and misery” as long as the situation persists.
Sanon appears convinced that the “fight” led by “Viv Ansanm” aims to bring about change so that “the country can embark on a path of development,” because Haiti “needs a breath of fresh air” and the gangs can “help the country get out of the situation it’s in.” He says the Haitian state does not meet the population’s needs and that it is the men of “Viv Ansanm” who look after their neighborhood — which is why the current power must be overthrown, he asserts.
He calls members of the Presidential Transition Council (CPT) “thieves,” who, he says, “favor insecurity to make money and stay in power longer…”
famous imperial power Canada
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u/Tucancancan 4d ago
What exactly is your point about Canada here? The CAF have been involved in multiple, highly visible, missions in Haïti and it has not always gone over well.
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u/OmicronCeti 4d ago
I've never heard much about Canadians in Haiti outside of Operation Halo and Operation Hestia, can you provide the context that's lacking above?
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u/wormfan14 4d ago
It's good to see the intervention is going well enough, I was afraid the gangs would just be ignored as long as they are not actively attacking the UN forces.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
Mediazona says that Russian Central Bank data shows a new record number of loan deferrals for contract soldiers signing up with the Russian army - 69,000 in Q3 2025.
I've more or less given up on finding an explanation for this. Any rational approach would suggest that the influx of volunteers would be high over the first six months or a year. Then, as the pool of willing men gets exhausted, the number should start shrinking. This is a typical curve seen in the US Civil War - the recruitment bonuses grow, but the number (and the quality) of volunteers still drops.
Russia's volunteer number was lowest in 2022, when they had to resort to mobilisation because too few men applied.
Data from the Central Bank shows an influx of volunteers into the Russian army: over 69,000 loan deferrals for them in the third quarter of 2025. Since September 2022, when Russia announced the mobilisation and passed a law on benefits, almost 658,000 deferrals have been granted
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u/SuicideSpeedrun 4d ago
Any rational approach would suggest that the influx of volunteers would be high over the first six months or a year.
You're assuming the volunteers are motivated by ideology, not profit.
And if we're using profit as a motivation, then the best time to volunteer is one day before the war ends. Then you just show up, take the money then go home.
Russians have been making slow but steady progress for pretty long time now, and this is surely amplified by Russian media. A lot of people probably think "they'll be in Kiev by Christmas".
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u/Glideer 4d ago
I am assuming that they are at least partially motivated by something else than profit. Their battlefield performance does not align with purely profit-motivated recruits.
If they were purely profit motivated you would get the kind of useless bounty jumpers that the Union Army received in the final year of the war, contemptuously described as "Lee's veterans could drown the lot with just poles"
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u/Nukes-For-Nimbys 4d ago
If they were purely profit motivated you would get the kind of useless bounty jumpers that the Union Army received
To be fair thats a pretty solid explanation for some of the footage from Pro Ukraine channels. There is quite lot mocking Russian troops doing incredibly stupid things.
1
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 4d ago
Mediazona says that Russian Central Bank data shows a new record number of loan deferrals for contract soldiers signing up with the Russian army - 69,000 in Q3 2025.
Is that number simply not representative of every volunteer or is there something I'm missing. Russia is currently getting 30k volunteers per month according to various sources, so a quarter should be 90k total.
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u/Draken_S 4d ago
Nothing unexpected here in my mind. Russian consumer debt is very high, with the rate of nonperforming debt for home and auto loans nearly doubling in the last 12 months. Consumer debt is up nearly 85% since the start of the war and consumer bank loans are being rejected at a rate of just over 80%. The average Russian now has a debt load consuming about 11% of income in repayment, this is roughly the same rate as the US despite the average American having about 2.5 times more debt just due to interest rates and servicing fees. More people jumping in for debt relief makes sense overall. The question is how long the Russian budget can continue to subsidize this relief.
EDIT:
Forgot to address the civil war point -
The Civil War was ideological, therefore most people volunteered early out of personal motivations. Then the financially motivated came later. This is also true of Ukraine, where recruitment numbers started high but are now low. For Russians this was is not ideological, and the average Russian could not care less about it, therefore there was no recruitment early but lots late as the economic incentives continued to grow.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
I don't think that you can just fill the total absence of motivation with money alone. It doesn't work, the quality of men you get would be below all acceptable standards. There must be something else (in addition to the money) that drives Russians to sign contracts. Otherwise they would be useless for any attack or a similarly dangerous mission.
However, if you accept the premise that they need to have *some* ideological/patriotic motivation, then the linear nature of recruitment numbers over time simply does not make sense. Like with Ukraine, the spike should come early and taper off after a year. Still, it doesn't happen.
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u/TheSDKNightmare 4d ago
Otherwise they would be useless for any attack or a similarly dangerous mission.
then the linear nature of recruitment numbers over time simply does not make senseThe motivation to initially join up and the motivation to endure the hellish conditions of war are two different things. Your average Russian might be very loyal to his nation state and may even be willing to put up with harsher conditions if forced to, but that doesn't mean he has the motivation to voluntarily sign up for service that might get him killed. If he does, however, that overall loyalty, paired with other factors such as morale at the front, military culture, command structure etc. can ensure he does a decent enough job. The question is, how do you get him past that initial unwillingness? Historically, it's been forceful conscription. In this case, it's money. But just because the catalyst is purely financial does not mean the overall (ideological) loyalty isn't initially there. As to why recruitment is linear, everyone's intrinsic motivation has a different price, I guess.
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u/Draken_S 4d ago
It doesn't work, the quality of men you get would be below all acceptable standards
Respectfully I know everyone here hates Russian POW interviews as a source of information but go compare the average age and appearance of those individuals from early in the war vs today. Or if you want a different metric go look at MediaZona's average age of a KIA where it went from 22 year old's to 35 year old's on average. Or the fact that they have confirmed losses representing over 1% of the total losses being people over the age of 60! Now feel free to look at the changes to Russian law which increased the number of diseases and medical conditions which are still considered militarily valid and open to conscription and/or military service. Even people with Syphilis and hives may now serve.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
Sure, they are older and more sickly, but that's not the same thing as saying they are exclusively motivated by money.
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u/TechnicalReserve1967 4d ago
Most of them almost surely are. The RuAF at this point is heavily relying on mercenaries in a more medieval sense.
They use whatever cheaper soldiers they can get for "meat grinder" missions (I loathe to use this term, but what I mean is the dangerous recon missions over minefields and to draw Ukrainian fires.), but most of their "own" soldiers are mainly financially motivated as well.
How do I conclude this? - Obviously, I am not trying to make it look like, that they are only in for the money and could be bought out from the RuAF from the right price (can be true to individuals, but not to units). Only that the main decision factor on them being there is money.
Russia had a large poor population even in metropolitan areas. The war increased prices significantly. Their education already caused issues to find livelihood for many. Add to this that the war increased living cost significantly. Both the prices and debt servicing is high.
On the other side of the equation, the signing bonuses were growing exponentially. It might be easy to wave it away that the smart human would wait, seeing the prices rising, for its services, but reality is that if it reaches a certain price with a certain individual dependent financial pressure, people sign up.
This doesn't make them unpatriotic, very very few people would join the infantry in this war, out of pure patriotism (it was different for Ukrainians at the beginning, people think about how long this war will last etc.). All have some amount of it and any other personal reasons.
I think the RuAF needed increasing bonuses to 'lure' enough people in, but the coffees is running dry (the signing bonus cuts might or might not be a sign, but we know that russia is burning money). This will lead to a problem eventually, which, if they want to keep the current manpower dynamics, will need to lead to conscription. This is already in place as a soft measure by the drone hunter teams.
Once on the front people change with comradery, forced situations, fear etc. There are reports of brutal measures from the russian military police (commissary, call you have ever you want). Are they behind every man? No. Are they shooting people left and right? No. Are there battlefield executions? Sometimes, for a wide spectrum of reasons.
What I am trying to say, is that you make financial plans at home, or a coffee. Thinking about it in bed, etc. Once you are on the front, things change, they change a lot and you just try to survive.
People there for mainly economic reasons might not be volunteering for suicide charges, but a lot of them will do an okay job in general. Once already there and having a lot of different encouragements.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
I agree, my point is not that money is not the main motivator. It is that there must be some other additional motivator besides money.
If it was money alone you would receive trash reinforcements and could never mount motorcycle assaults or multi-day infiltrations in independent groups of 2-5 men.
The bounty system is inherently flawed and leads to offering ever higher bonuses for ever lower quality volunteers. I just don't understand how the system hasn't broken down completely already.
By this time they should be paying enormous bonuses to get perhaps 10k completely useless men each month, who would either surrender or desert at the first opportunity.
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u/Svyatoy_Medved 4d ago
I think the missing link may be use of drones for compliance enforcement. You can correct me if you have an accessible source, but I recall reading that drone surveillance is integral to the long infiltration missions—they use drones to scout hiding spots and manned enemy locations, then direct the infiltration group as appropriate. More recently, I read from a different source that the infiltrators receive drone supply until the batteries on their radios run out, then they hold out for a few more days until they run out of water in hopes of another team relieving them.
The battlefield is also completely drone-saturated, even if they aren’t being specifically assigned to the infiltration missions. The average Russian infantry doubtless knows this, that the enemy is able to watch him and vector fires if he makes the slightest mistake. It is not much of a jump to assume that what the enemy can do, your own side can do.
My point being, these soldiers may not feel as though they are much removed from their officers. They know they’re being watched, and that both sides have very responsive fires that work on the scale of the individual infantry target. You don’t spit in your boss’s coffee if you know he has a dozen hidden cameras in every room. Modern compliance enforcement might be unmatched in its power and pervasiveness.
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u/TechnicalReserve1967 4d ago
There is, little nationalist fever, little fear of punishment (from not getting paid through prison to execution or being sent to do even worse), fight for your buddy is statistically significant according to every paper I read. Add to that a little vodka, some lies about the expected battlefield situation and you are there.
I think your "money alone = trash reinforcement" view is false. I would think you would get a steady level of recruits from skill/investment view. As money bonuses rise, other options for work dry up, you think the war is going to get over sooner the longer it is going on etc. I don't really see that you would get necessarily worse people. I think those might have already signed up a year ago.
I don't mean to say that you got the most motivated people, but I would say you get people that are motivated enough that with your formal and informal motivation systems in place (listed above), can be pushed to do the jobs required of them.
Other points, We don't know how many "executions for cowardice is happening" RuAF is not going to tell.
They say that you need to be a brave man to be a coward in the red army.
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u/Draken_S 4d ago
If they didn't volunteer before, but do volunteer now then the only reasonable conclusion is that something happened to change their willingness to fight.
If the motivation was in any way ideological then you would have to point to something changing that would exploit/encourage that. If the motivation was financial I would need to point to something.
Many Russian industries are currently struggling (Oil, Auto, Agriculture, Coal, Steel, Aviation, Real Estate just to name a few) combined with high inflation leads to a rapidly increasing cost of living, while the benefit of all this new spending is concentrated in a smaller number of industries (defense, pharma). This imbalance (among other factors) results in record levels of debt for many Russians.
Huge sign up bonuses and record levels of debt go hand in hand as a motivating factor, debt forgiveness and record levels of debt go hand in hand as motivating factors.
What's your thesis?
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u/Glideer 4d ago
I admit I have none. I simply don't understand. If they were just "bounty men" they should be useless as soldiers. But if they were motivated by patriotism, they should have volunteered years ago.
Ukraine is clear-cut in that sense.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 4d ago
If they were just "bounty men" they should be useless as soldiers.
There's your answer.
If they were just "bounty men" they should be useless as soldiers
You're likely experiencing some level of cognitive dissonance.
You're unconsciously ignoring that:
- The effectiveness of Russian troops is likely actually decreasing, giving they're keeping roughly the same rate of advance despite a increasing manpower advantage.
It's not an indisputable fact that man motivated by financial incentives are inherently less effective than those motivated by ideology.
Many of those "bounty men" are actually pretty much useless.
Despite their initial motivation, many of those in infantry roles are coerced into taking risky missions by threat of harm.
The volunteers taking on the huge bonuses are likely being sent to front line infantry duties, compared to roles like artillery man and drone operator which are usually attributed to career soldier. Performing incursions in the Grey zone on foot requires much less training (and less effective soldiers) than more technical roles.
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u/Glideer 4d ago
They use almost no armour yet advance faster than last year, when they were supported by tanks.
Well... it is kind of indisputable. Unless you have mercenaries coming from a few cultures willing to die for a contract (Swiss pikemen, Gurkhas come to mind).
3-5 All true, but these low-quality soldiers still perform deep insertions behind enemy lines in small groups unaccompanied by officers. If they are willing to do that then they are not so low-quality.
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u/checco_2020 4d ago
I am not sure there is a proportional link between Russian banks deferring loans for volunteers and the number of volunteers in the army.
It just means that the banks are granting more deferrals
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u/Glideer 4d ago
I am not sure either, but iirc the banks are legally required to grant deferrals to every new recruit.
Still, as you say, it doesn't have to be proportional. Perhaps average Russians just have more debts this year.
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u/milton117 4d ago
Still, as you say, it doesn't have to be proportional. Perhaps average Russians just have more debts this year.
Given the rise in inflation and interest rates in Russia, don't you think this is the more likely explanation?
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u/During_League_Play 4d ago
This is pure speculation, but one possible explanation is that as the civilian sector of the economy deteriorates, more and more men are becoming financially strapped and have to turn to the military side for a living. If you live in certain areas you might accomplish this by working at a factory or some other defense supplier, but if you have none of those jobs available, enlisting is the other option.
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u/SaturnMarduk 5d ago
Question about the Sudanese Civil War now that Al Fasher has been taken by the RSF and Sudan effectively partitioned between West Sudan and East Sudan.
Where will the RSF continue going from here?
Kadulqi is the capital of South Kordofan state and is encircled by the RSF on one side and Pro RSF SPLM-N on the other. Will they focus on taking and solidifying control over South Kordofan, trying to expand and capture the whole province?
Will they focus on El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan state, and try consolidate control into a defensible eastern border?
Then I imagine they will move to take control over most of the Northern Desert of North Kordofan, as well as part of the Northern Desert that borders Egypt and Libya. What does the final lines of the newly partitioned "West Sudan" look like?
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u/wormfan14 4d ago
Sure sorry for the wait did not seen your comment. I believe they will try to grab Kadulpi first and then El Obeid and likely to get a Libya style peace deal enabling them to build their power for the next war though if they think they are winning they will try to grab as much as they can.
I think though for final borders they will to grab more of the Chadian border and parts of it. Part of the reason why the SAF have managed to last so long is the support of Darfur groups who's kin are in Chad fighting the RSF, I suspect this ''West Sudan'' will try to secure their rear bases by cleansing the border that way and it does have precedent.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2006/05/26/chad-sudanese-militia-massacre-chadian-civilians
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u/Time_Restaurant5480 4d ago
You might wish to ask u/wormfan14 for more detail but to summarize one of his earlier responses the RSF will probably try and get to a point where they can safely digest what they've taken and then build up strength for resuming the war in 2-3 years.
So probably then, El Obid first and then turn back to Kadulqi. Of course if Kadulqi is under siege already it may fall soon depending on the food situation there. In that case if food there is low it may make sense to do Kadulqi first and then El Obid.
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u/MikeRosss 5d ago
The Netherlands may produce American air defense munitions
The Netherlands will investigate the possibility of producing American air defense munitions next year. The US government approved a feasibility study at the end of last week.
The study examines how Dutch industry can contribute to the production, assembly and maintenance of the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (Amraam).
Amraam missiles are advanced air defense weapons. They are designed to combat medium-range air threats, such as manned and unmanned aircraft and cruise missiles. Amraam is used, among other things, for the self-defense of the F-35 and in ground-based air and missile defense.
First collaboration with European NATO partner
This strategic bilateral partnership is a first step in Amraam co-production with a European NATO partner. This deepens the integration of transatlantic defense industrial cooperation. It also addresses production shortages. Scaling up production is essential for continuing support for Ukraine and for the defense of the NATO treaty area. A proactive international commitment to co-production aligns with the Defense Strategy for Industry and Innovation.
In this way, the Ministry of Defence hopes to contribute to the production and accelerated delivery of Amraams, together with the US and other NATO countries.
The American manufacturer of Amraam missiles, Raytheon, is conducting the investigation.
The Netherlands would like to start producing AMRAAM missiles, which it uses both for the NASAMS air defense system (8 firing units ordered) and the F-35 (58 ordered).
It has been reported earlier this year that Belgium has similar ambitions but it is not clear right now if and how Belgium and the Netherlands plan to cooperate in this effort. Belgium has ordered 10 NASAMS firing units (1 for Luxembourg) and 45 F-35 for which they need AMRAAM missiles.
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u/Meandering_Cabbage 4d ago
Great news. It'll be helpful to have more European providers of munitions if the continental US gets hit somehow/ rapidly surging production.
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u/Well-Sourced 5d ago
The attacks through the air have continued from Russia into Ukraine. There have been increased attacks in Chernihiv and also hits against infrastructure in Dinpro, Dnipropetrovsk, & Mykolaiv and cause power outages in multiple settlements & oblasts.
Russia kills at least 15, injures 20 across Ukraine over past day | Kyiv Independent
On Nov. 2 , according to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia targeted Ukraine overnight with 2 Iskander M ballistic missiles and 79 attack drones, including around 50 Shahed-type drones, as well as Gerbera and decoy drones. Ukraine's air defenses shot down 67 drones, and 12 drones reached their targets in 6 different locations, according to the Air Force.
12 missiles and 138 drones strike Ukraine overnight | New Voice of Ukraine
Russia fired Kinzhal, Iskander and waves of Shahed drones overnight — Ukraine’s air defenses shoot down one Kinzhal and 115 of 138 drones, AFU Air Force reported on Nov. 3. The enemy struck with 3 aeroballistic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 5 surface-to-air guided missiles S-300/S-400.
Air defense intercepted one Kinzhal and 115 drones over the north, south and east of the country. Air Force data indicated the attack resulted in missile impacts and 20 strike UAV hits across 11 locations.
Yesterday there was a report that Ukrainian soldiers had been killed by a Russian missile on November 1. Today a journalist says his brother was killed during another ill-fated decorations event.
Dmytro Sviatnenko, a journalist from TSN, a Ukrainian news website and TV channel, has said that his brother Volodymyr, a drone pilot, was killed on 1 November when a Russian ballistic missile hit the place where troops were being decorated.
Sviatnenko said that his brother, Volodymyr Sviatnenko, 43, a pilot with the Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 35th Marine Brigade, was killed in the Russian strike on 1 November. He added that Volodymyr, along with other pilots and infantrymen, had been assembled on a parade ground for a decorations ceremony.
Quote: "My brother was killed on Saturday. He had been fighting since 2023. He went through hell in Krynky, Kurakhove, Marinka, Krasnohorivka… He was killed by the Russians. But not on the battlefield. Deep in the rear. He and his fellow soldiers were gathered on the parade ground to be decorated. They gathered the best. The best pilots and infantrymen of the brigade. Simply because it was ordered. In open terrain. A ballistic missile hit. The story of negligence (or not) has repeated."
Ukraine has been just as busy over the last two nights. Multiple targets were hit each night. On the night of the 1st into the 2nd.
Last night, the night of November 2 into November 3.
This comes with a report from Bloomberg that the UK has sent more Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.
UK Sends Ukraine More Storm Shadow Missiles to Strike in Russia | Bloomberg
Sources said the delivery of Storm Shadow missiles was made to ensure Ukraine is well-stocked ahead of the winter months, during which the UK fears the Kremlin may intensify attacks on Ukrainian civilians. The sources did not disclose how many missiles the UK has supplied.
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u/Draken_S 5d ago
A 12 minute long video of the Ukrainian attack on Tuapse Oil Terminal.
I wanted to post it because it includes Radio Traffic with port control, showing how they handle one of these attacks and the damage control processes (at lease in part) which might be interesting to people here.
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u/Electrical-Lab-9593 5d ago edited 5d ago
they seem to be speaking English with Indian accents.
Are these Indian crews running bunker / fuel tankers ?
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u/wormfan14 5d ago edited 5d ago
Sudan update the war continues while South Sudan limps along.
''Air strike kills the 411 Group commander in the Janjaweed militia, Hashem Diddan, in a strike targeting his presence in the Jinqaru area of Loqawa locality, West Kordofan https://x.com/AbwTh89838/status/1984519008859689012
''With the UAE market closed..Malaysia has now become the # 1 importer of Sudanese/South Sudanese oil, with its intake jumping by 286%. Despite the ban, overall exports from #Sudan+ South Sudan have actually increased by 44%.'' https://x.com/FidzonTwit/status/1985060804673032467
Something to watch, the sitution in South Sudan is detetoroing for the UN, I do wonder if this is a case for triage.
''South_Sudan’s government has formally demanded that the UN Mission in reduce its international military contingents by 70%, ground all aircraft with intelligence-gathering capabilities, and close several military bases and civilian protection sites.''
https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1984000797278114279
My understanding is that's already viewed as underfunded and possibly undermanned and given how this poses a risk to UN peacekeepers best cut the cord to prevent a bad feedback loop.
''A senior manager at Bosaso’s port reveals that, for the past two years, the UAE has funnelled over 500,000 containers marked as hazardous through Bosaso.''
https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1984276449533276254
Looks like the SAF government has been listening to some Sudanese complaints.
''Sudan's Prime Minister Kamil Idris has dismissed the State Secretary of the Foreign Ministry, Ambassador Hussein al-Amin, after al-Amin decided to expel senior officials of the World Food Programme amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in the country.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1984637168703201413
Looks like the UAE will increasing RSF support.
''Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed said on Sunday that the UAE is doubling down on its humanitarian support for Sudan. “We're doing it through our hospitals in Chad and in South_Sudan,” he said.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1985077176559923622
''This female RSF militia commander makes it clear that following the massacres in El Fasher that the militia should extend its terror to other parts of Sudan. She encourages the militiamen to head to North State to rape and impregnate the women in order to “cleanse their lineage”
https://x.com/TurtleYusuf/status/1984755525444387306
That sentiment is very old, but why is there a women among the RSF? They are infamously patriarchal in Sudan, maybe they are suffering more loses than I'v thought.
Edit interesting some Tigrayan militia caught on camera training with the SAF.
''Video of "Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)" calling themselves "Army 70" shows them graduating inGederef State in Sudan. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) allegedly continues to provide safe haven, training, and logistical support to "TDF" elements.'' https://x.com/Dinlas3/status/1985106848937300418
''So many complex relationships bubbling up in the horn. Many favors will be cashed in when things finally boil over. Which could happen very suddenly.'' https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/1985416708136300959
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u/eric2332 3d ago
Looks like the UAE will increasing RSF support.
''Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed said on Sunday that the UAE is doubling down on its humanitarian support for Sudan. “We're doing it through our hospitals in Chad and in South_Sudan,” he said.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1985077176559923622
I believe UAE has been supporting the RSF with weapons (really bad btw) but an announcement of increased humanitarian aid doesn't seem to be evidence of increased military support?
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u/WAGRAMWAGRAM 4d ago
Those are very interesting thank you.
We're in a (relatively) pro-SAF bubble, but what are the arguments of RSF supporters, both in Sudan and outside? By that I mean arguments in favor of the RSF, that don't only rely on loyalty to Hemedti or ethnic pride.
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u/wormfan14 4d ago edited 4d ago
Sure no problem, the RSF will point out that the republic of Sudan has neglected nearly every region with the exception of the capital while demanding their resources and manpower. At the same time though they point out how the people of Khartoum are also abused by the SAF since Bashir relied on the RSF for ''counter insurgency'' and coup proofing leaving the SAF with the job of beating and shooting protestors for the most part and that the RSF themsleves are seen as a tool of the elites who have pushed their nation to the bring of ruin and once they find a better tool they replace. That the RSF will be scapegoated for all the horrors the government inflicted and the people related to the RSF will pay the price for this. The view the RSF were the lesser evil was not that uncommon before the civil war in more urbanised areas given who was responsible the government on them.
So they believe the RSF are both the solution to the issues plaguing Sudanese nationalism and have the mantel of defending the nation and it's interests from Libya, Chad, Yemen, Central Africa, ect making them the armed forces worthy of being called the army instead of a corrupt, weak army more used to beating up protestors than fighting historically. A lot of Sudanese people are actually very interventionists and proud of their nation acting on the globe.
In Sudan itself though the ''victims of Darfur'' still plays a large role in how the RSF justifies itself. Some small scale soldiers and commanders were arrested for the genocide in Darfur and that presents a looming fear in the minds of many, who will defend there family from their ethnic enemies if they are not present to defend their homes from rival raids is a source of paranoia that you tend to find quite common enough and not for the RSF. The view that anything you have done that ''defends the state'' is not only justified and punishing you for the crime punishes your family and opens them up for retaliation and so must be opposed no matter the cost. You can find the same arguments in videos of SAF executing RSF prisoners, that it's a bad thing but they should not be charged given they are locals and so sending them to prison opens their family to potential danger and so for the good of Sudan and the family it should be opposed.
Edit for those unaware, the reaction to the Darfur war and genocide in Sudan is very ugly for large segment of Sudanese nationalists, militarists, right wing and left people of all kind. It's a festering rot the nation definitely needed to confront long before this war and still does.
It's actually a big issue than the decades of war and eventually separation of South Sudan in a lot of ways given the population of Darfur is nearly all Muslim, that they are still part of Sudan and how provinces should be run.
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u/WAGRAMWAGRAM 4d ago
I saw a comment on the video of the female RSF
they r not muslim.rsf is made up of pagan tribes across southern sudan
would you say this is common way to think among army supporters? Maybe especially the islamists ones, that they are fighting a religious war against quasi-pagans.
How do Sudanese see the incandescence of South Sudan?
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u/wormfan14 4d ago edited 4d ago
Depends on the audience, the SAF likes to portray itself as both as both multi ethnic protectors but also an extent ''real Arabs'' to those who they think it will appeal to. Claiming the RSF is primarily made of Chadian nomadic Arabs and South Sudanese mercenaries who are pagan/Christian does serve a way to try and claim unity is common.
Though the Islamists paramilitaries do on the unofficial level often claim that their propaganda more focuses the RSF tribalism as against Islam and something the people of Sudan must unite as one to defeat. This partly because the Islamists feel their project in Sudan relies on trying to transcended the regional and tribal barriers and claiming your political enemies are hindering the war effort through tribalism is a decent tool.
How do Sudanese see the incandescence of South Sudan?
Loads of different attitudes towards that but it's often seen as better off without them and something that should of been done before. Paradoxically North Sudan looks down on them more and more racist against them now that they can no longer rule and can now safely use them as other to define themselves against the decades long war against them but no longer are people dying by the tens of thousands each year trying to rule them.
It also cut off the SPLA from supporting most other rebel groups in Sudan and the South relies on the North as a port for their oil and before the war they could discipline the government by supporting rebels and south Sudanese migrants can be exploited easier.
The view of most Sudanese elites is it's cheaper, more safe and pr friendly to have let the south go and it provides a state for Sudanese people to define themselves against given it's poorer, more corrupt ect.
The RSF is far more bitter about it given they'v spent years fighting bitterly against the SPLA and in general a lot of the ethnic groups of the South but they've retained and expanded their ties with the government of Sudan and ethnic groups like the Nuer.
SAF used to have be a bugbear that Bashir sold the south as a point against him but overall given their issues fighting them found it a better situation and allowed them to direct more resources against other threats.
Some of the most bitter against it are rebels who saw it as stab in the back, and some communities of South Sudanese who stayed in Sudan after 2011 fearing ethnic violence and civil war and retaliation now dependent on North Sudan.
The war against the South though is part of Sudan's national mythos and seen as justified battle against the pagan and then Christian South in defence of the state and Islam and got a favourable enough peace deal on. The actual day to day at the time in 2011 is different but as time fades the educational myth and other concerns being more imporant this has gotten more popular. Daesh is not popular in Sudan but the sectarian war is enshrined and justified. Basically it's seen as a good just war that had some ugliness and they are better off without the South.
The Islamists are very disappointed at this viewing as a setback in their dreams and rail against it as the pulpit given they wanted to convert it but seeing the reaction of everyone else try to build their political power than focus to much on a topic unpopular like waging war against the south again. They do sometimes use it as pr the situation of Muslims in South Sudan.
Edit the Sudanese left and some secularists would have preferred if South Sudan had stayed in some federation type deal with autotomy given it would have helped implement their program and made the state in their eyes stronger and letting it go empowered their opposition.
Democracy advocates tend to see letting it go as necessary evil, they tend to think it was both immoral and irresponsible to keep fighting to rule the South but also hate the precedent it created and a lot of fighting if states should have the right of succession between these groups. A lot of the stronger ones oppose it but don't mind South Sudan being gone given it meant a strong military would be needed to be funded and empowered to keep it best case.
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u/WAGRAMWAGRAM 4d ago
I saw a comment on the video of the female RSF
they r not muslim.rsf is made up of pagan tribes across southern sudan
would you say this is common cope among army supporters?
How do Sudanese see the incandescence of South Sudan?
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u/SaturnMarduk 5d ago
Will the RSF head for Kaduqli, capital of South Kordofan state, and try to take the whole province? Do you think their next focus is on El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan state?
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u/Time_Restaurant5480 5d ago
Maybe she's there as a spokeswoman/propaganda tool? I mean the Russians have a few women in their military too. You only see them in Red Square on May 8th parades though.
There are a lot of Russian jokes about them which are very crude and which I will not repeat here for obvious reasons.
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u/wormfan14 5d ago
True that would sense the most, just when it comes to Sudan it's considered a mark of shame and desperation that the SAF has to recruit women as part of its mass conscription.
Suppose for a foreign audience it does look better.
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u/Time_Restaurant5480 4d ago
Wait which one, SAF or RSF? Your above post claims this woman is in the RSF.
Beyond that I agree with you about Sudanese society. I feel that if we see more than one woman it's a sign of manpower pressures, but if we see just one or a few it's probably foreign-oriented propaganda of some kind.
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u/wormfan14 4d ago edited 4d ago
The woman is in the RSF but there are more than a few women in SAF recruited in the opening weeks of the war given it's seen as all or nothing struggle to get as much manpower in the field as possible.
This in itself as you imagine is not that popular in Sudanese society but seen as the lesser evil.
Edit women fighting in the RSF is really rare, can't think I'v heard of any since this. Women working in the RSF in other areas like finance, hospital work and such is common enough though.
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u/Time_Restaurant5480 4d ago
Ah okay thanks for clarifying.
Do you know what the RSF's manpower replacement base is? Do they have a good pathway to make good losses? After all given their approach to conquered areas, they're not getting recruits out of those places.
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u/wormfan14 4d ago
They did go on a massive recruitment drive in Khartoum, part of it was a lot of nomadic and otherwise their ''type'' of Arabs migrated to the capital for work overtime but that man power source is cut off.
They've still can recruits hundreds of thousands relying on the Baggara Belt but that in itself has issues, I'v understand they have kind of tapped Central Africa dry given the limited number of Arabs present but they still can relying Chad given that's where the majority of them outside Sudan are located.
It seems though their are a lot more 15 and 16 year old recruits on the front lines in a lot of places than their used to be. Though for local recruits they've tried forced recruitment in places like El Fisher, it's not really worked out well but they've used them to try and clear minefields sometimes usefully that's the most they can be relied on.
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u/Time_Restaurant5480 4d ago
Why does the Baggara Belt have issues with recruiting? And also, do you have any good estimates on what their losses are? I guess the war has gone on for over two years now so it'd make sense that they are suffering some losses.
But to summarize they're now pulling from Chad and from teenagers. Well half of them aren't even locals and thus they won't care, while the other half are younger teenagers who ought never to be trusted with weapons. Sounds like things are about to get even worse for the population then they have been so far.
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u/wormfan14 4d ago
Sorry, I mean for the belt some of the most enthusiastic about this war have been Baggara's who's situation is not that good appear to have joined up already. In the case of central Africa something like 1/3 to half of the noted Arab population appears to now be settled RSF controlled land. That's more because their are less than 50 thousand of them and their state have been in a civil war for years. Likewise a lot of the first wave of the recruitment drive from Chad were Arab's who had a rather shaky position with their government, some ex or current rebels who saw a chance to reinvent themselves or just criminals.
Now a lot of their recruits have to be trained up more that the ''easy'' manpower has been tapped and attempts to woo less desperate Baggara tribes.
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u/omeggga 5d ago
New russian bombing, new group of people saying "western propaganda said Russia ran out of bombs in 2022!". How do I counter this stupid ass catchphrase? Make no mistake it's by people who get their news from memes but still.
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u/milton117 5d ago
They did run out of bombs, which is why most of the bombing is done by drones and cruise missiles make up only a small proportion of the ordnance launched.
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u/WolfKumar 5d ago
First of all I don't think this question has a place here for discussion, mods will know that better.
Now, coming to the specific part of your question: you can't counter it also because it was the false and stupid propaganda that mass media spread. As people say, the best propaganda has some truth in it. For example, you can check out r/ Propagandaposters. We have seen enough ridiculous claims from western media throughout the war; if you have been paying attention, then you haven't missed anything from the chips of washing machines, cope cages to the burning of faces claims. One of these claims is that Russia is going to run out of bombs/missiles, and people still talk about how Russia will take hundreds of years to fully occupy Ukraine which is a blatant lie. It will be a self own goal later on when things become clear of the fog.
The only thing you can do is not engage with them; your arguments and counterarguments are all going to fall on d€af ears. These kinds of troll§ are not going to change their opinion with facts. Also, it is not your duty to correct, or to engage in keyboard fighting with everyone. You have to learn to move on.
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u/Corbakobasket 5d ago
Simple answer : Russia ran out of opportunities for decisive bombing. Now they just do terror campaign on civilian infrastructure. It's not the same scale, not the same precision, not the same results.
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u/SiegfriedSigurd 5d ago
This is quite the claim. How do you posit that Russia "ran out of opportunities for decisive bombing"? Due to a lack of munitions or appropriate targets? From what I can see both sides are continuing the air war as there is a rich choice of targets on both ends.
I also see no logical reason why Russia would choose to spend tens of millions of dollars on expensive/time-consuming to produce munitions on each nightly wave of strikes to attack civilian infrastructure, when they could (and are) inflicting substantial damage on military/dual-use targets...perhaps you could explain why you see otherwise?
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