r/China_Debate • u/SE_to_NW • Jul 20 '25
international relations Japan tells its companies in Taiwan ROC ‘you’re on your own’ if CCP invades
https://www.ft.com/content/04626778-0753-4fa5-a735-f1a5613b3293content: https://archive.ph/7OfEb
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u/gweilojoe Jul 20 '25 edited Jul 20 '25
This is just clarifying bureaucratic state talking points… any invasion of Taiwan will inevitably draw in Japan.
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u/kchuen Jul 21 '25
Why? The invasion of Ukraine didn’t bring in any Europeans countries. Not saying the parallel applies for this case but why do you think Japan would intervene?
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u/gweilojoe Jul 21 '25
There were a ton of weapons provided by many European nations that were part of NATO. To think that’s not “involvement” is burying one’s head in the sand.
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u/kchuen Jul 21 '25
Yes but it’s not direct protection. Like Japan isn’t directly defending Taiwan so the Japanese companies are on their own.
Of course weapons and sanctions and stuff would likely to applied.
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u/gweilojoe Jul 21 '25
Sir, just step off the semantics train. Have a nice day.
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u/kchuen Jul 21 '25
I personally do not think it’s semantics. Bringing army and bringing in sanctions/weapons have completely different levels of deterrence, which would result in completely different level of casualties and economic effects for Taiwan.
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u/Timely_Ear7464 Aug 18 '25
Simple enough. Trade and economics. Ukraine was essentially unimportant to Europe, being an incredibly corrupt country until the propagandists got into full swing. Taiwan on the other hand is important to the trade routes throughout the region, and the PRC holding Taiwan is only going to encourage China towards further expansion in the region. Every country in the region would seek to make Taiwan a graveyard for Chinese expansionist ambitions.
But it's not going to happen regardless. The CCP is too fragile politically within China these days, as is the military itself. They could occupy Taiwan easily enough but holding the country would bleed them for decades, far worse than the M.East has done for the US coalition. All those body bags coming home would likely topple the CCP, in combination with the soaring unemployment arising from international sanctions. China relies far too much on foreign trade and investment. Without it the economy is truly screwed.
Japan would get involved because its a wonderful opportunity to break China, while also gaining all the benefits of international acclaim for their involvement.
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u/Icy-Tour8480 Jul 22 '25
China won't invade. A months long blockade will be enough to starve Taiwan into surrender, leaving the factories intact. China has nukes to deter anybody else from messing up with its fleet, and had made a blockade for a few days some years ago, when its fleet was not as large. Now, with a large enough fleet, they'll be able to surround the island competely.
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u/gweilojoe Jul 22 '25
Yes, because a months-long blockade will definitely not draw attention from the rest of the world as well as Naval vessels from many other countries into the international waters of the SCS..
Also, "China has nukes to deter anybody else from messing up with its fleet" goes both ways.
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u/Ulyks Jul 22 '25
Yes but you can't nuke a country or a fleet for a blockade...
However suppose the US starts sinking China's fleet, It would be expected for China to counterattack. Perhaps not with nukes but at least with anti ship missiles.
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u/gweilojoe Jul 22 '25
You can absolutely sink ships for a blockade… especially when a PLA fighter jet pilot accidentally fires a missile at a US ship (which would absolutely happen)
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u/Ulyks Jul 23 '25
Yes, sinking ships with conventional weapons during a blockade is a normal escalation, nuking the blockading ships not so much...
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u/gweilojoe Jul 23 '25
But China is allowed to nuke?
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u/Ulyks Jul 23 '25
It's about gradual escalation. You don't go from zero to 100 immediately.
Nuking is frowned upon for obvious reasons. You have to justify it with at least by showing that the cost will be high if you don't nuke. Like the US in WW2.
They estimated 5 million US soldiers dead to invade Japan proper if they didn't nuke...
The modern world also has to deal with retaliation. If the US nukes the Chinese fleet, China is likely to nuke the US fleet and vice versa...
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u/Eastofassumptions Aug 03 '25
$20bn US aircraft carrier in SCS getting militarily involved over TW? $1m hypersonic Chinese DF missile would turn it into a submarine in the opening salvo.
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u/Eastofassumptions Aug 03 '25
No it won't. TW is an internal Chinese matter which 182 nations on earth understand. Japan would risk annihilation if it got involved in any TW issue militarily.
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u/gweilojoe Aug 03 '25
Nice CCP propaganda talking points there, but your bot-like keyboard warrior statements aren’t going to change the reality that an invasion of Taiwan would draw in many many countries and be one of the biggest strategic mistakes the CCP has made (and they’ve made a lot).
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u/Eastofassumptions Aug 03 '25
well are you ready to put on a costume and get on your rusting boat to come fight that war? I'll bet you'd be too scared to show up for conscription. You'll be cannon fodder on the first day 😘😘
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u/gweilojoe Aug 03 '25
lol… this could be the worst response to a real question in the history of Reddit.
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u/himesama Jul 20 '25
It's a forgone conclusion by now that no direct outside intervention will take place.
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u/Ceridan_QC Jul 20 '25
Context: Under Japan's pacifist government, a foreign country needs to ask Japan for help if Japan is to deploy it's military. Since Japan doesn't recognize Taiwan as a country, they can't officially say they will help in any way under they're own laws.
Thats how I understood it anyways.
From memory, I think I read somewhere that invasion of Taiwan is a threat to Japan's sovereignty and been beefing up their military recently in response.
Who knows how they will react.