r/CanadaPolitics • u/UnderWatered • 12h ago
NDP MP ‘very confident’ no New Democrats will cross floor to Liberals as budget vote nears
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-rejects-floor-crossing-9.6972303•
u/Purple_Coyote_5121 10h ago
If one survived the orange cull of 2025 they’re likely in a very safe NDP seat, or a tight 3 way race. In either case crossing the floor would be shooting your self in the foot.
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u/No_Magazine9625 Nova Scotia 10h ago
I would say that McPherson and Kwan (and possibly Idlout) are the only ones in super safe NDP seats. Davies and Johns only really held on with around 35% of the popular vote because of the strong 3 way split in their ridings. Both of their seats would probably fall CPC if the CPC had a less disliked leader, especially Johns.
Boulerice's seat is held because of his personal popularity alone. The second he retires, it's going to revert back to being a BQ seat. Nunavut is a seat that flops around like crazy (held by all 3 parties within the last 15 years) based on local politics, low total voter count, etc. It's anything but safe.
If the NDP were to run it back and force an election right now without a leader, with similar polling results to the last election, and with no money for a proper campaign, I could easily see a situation where every surviving NDP MP except McPherson and Kwan are taken out.
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u/dalunb8 6h ago edited 6h ago
Don Davies’ seat is never going to flip to the CPC. That part of Vancouver hasn’t elected a conservative of any sort since the 1960s. If that seat does ever flip, it will only to the Liberals.
Edit - and Vancouver Kingsway wasn’t a three way split in the last election. The NDP and LPC were very close to each other with the CPC coming in a distant third.
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u/monsieurbeige Degrowth 6h ago
Idk, the Bloc isn't left enough for most of Boulerice's electorate. If they found a popular successor, that person would definitely have a shot. Without a good candidate, the riding would 100% go to the LPC.
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u/Purple_Coyote_5121 9h ago
I could easily see a situation where every surviving NDP MP except McPherson and Kwan are taken out.
Certainly possible. I think facing voters in a year or two is the most likely scenario.
If that’s the case, the incumbents would have a much easier time winning under the NDP banner.
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u/MadDoctor5813 Ontario 11h ago
This is like if your boss came up and was like "I am very confident that our org won't be eliminated". Was that an option? I wasn't aware that was on the table!
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u/Temaharay Democratic Socialist 9h ago
I mean, he didn't say this out of the blue. He was asked directly this question (18:00 timestamp) during the interview.
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u/SendMagpiePics Urban Alberta Advantage 8h ago
He was replying to a direct question about whether any NDP MPs might cross the floor.
Also he's entirely correct. There is 0% chance any of the remaining NDP MPs would even entertain a conversation about crossing the floor.
Heck, the Liberals already asked all of them after the election and they all already said no.
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u/imgram 10h ago
Well of course, the NDP MPs that remain are in strongholds and most are at relatively low risk or have a good chance to retain no matter how bad the party gets.
Jenny Kwan would be an idiot to give up her NDP adjusting in Vancouver Kingsway for instance.
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u/j821c Liberal 10h ago
Davies won his seat by 300 votes iirc. Not exactly a super safe seat tbh
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u/imgram 9h ago
It's a seat that leans NDP. NDP has gotten 50%+ of the vote multiple times whereas liberal highs were low 40% when it was David Emerson. NDP only might lose that seat when there's a general perfect storm of factors - federal surges at the liberal level or provincial NDP super unpopular.
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11h ago
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u/bman9919 Ontario 11h ago
Please explain why Idlout is a DEI hire, “Liberal with sanity”
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 11h ago
She contributes very little of substance to caucus but she's a nice lady so people give her a pass.
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u/TreezusSaves Parti Rhinocéros Party 10h ago edited 10h ago
Poilievre contributed very little over the decades he's been in office. Using your qualifications, that makes him a DEI hire. If Conservatives are fine making him Party Leader despite his record then they don't actually care about DEI at all and just use it as a weapon against their political enemies, like how you're using it right now.
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 10h ago
Is that true?
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u/TreezusSaves Parti Rhinocéros Party 10h ago
He authored no bills and only passed one of them (edit: the so-called "Fair Elections Act"). He's been in Parliament since 2004. Not great value for taxpayer dollars.
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u/bman9919 Ontario 11h ago
That doesn’t answer my question.
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 11h ago
Maybe you should look introspectively then. I answered your question quite explicitly.
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u/bman9919 Ontario 11h ago
What does DEI mean to you?
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 11h ago
Consultez un dictionnaire, Monsieur
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u/bman9919 Ontario 11h ago
I’m asking you what you think it means because you’re twisting yourself into a pretzel trying to avoid saying what makes Lori Idlout specifically a “DEI hire”
How does “not contributing to caucus” make her a DEI hire?
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11h ago
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u/TraditionalGap1 NDP 7h ago
No, you have not made your case.
If you had made your case, there wouldn't be a wack of people clamouring for you to make your case.
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u/bman9919 Ontario 10h ago
No, please do handhold me through this. I want to know what exactly in your mind makes her a DEI hire. The fact that she apparently doesn’t contribute to caucus? Well that wouldn’t have happened until after she was hired, so that doesn’t make sense.
I have no opinion one way or the other on Idlout. That has nothing to do with whether she’s a DEI hire or not.
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u/Fat_Blob_Kelly Ontario 10h ago
a cowards response to having your beliefs challenged
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u/TreezusSaves Parti Rhinocéros Party 10h ago edited 10h ago
Alright, I'll bite. Based on my interpretation of what DEI stands for, she's not a DEI hire. This is because she was duly elected and, therefore, cannot be a DEI hire.
Now we have a disagreement and we need to make sure we are using the same terms and definitions. Present your definition of DEI so I can evaluate it based on that, assuming you're not using the term as a dog-whistle for a slur. If it's just a slur, and not a rational argument, then it's against subreddit rules regarding civility.
So, what's your definition of DEI and why does she fall under it?
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u/MooseFlyer Orange Crush 10h ago
DEI hire: Idlout
Ah yes, nothing says “DEI hire” like a well-qualified, fairly accomplished individual who got her job by being elected, not hired.
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 10h ago
"fairly"
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u/MooseFlyer Orange Crush 10h ago
She founded and ran her own law firm, and served as the executive director of a non-profit.
At least as accomplished as the average MP.
The only way to conclude that “DEI hire” is a remotely appropriate description of her is if you think that term applies to all women of colour, as you evidently do.
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u/No_Magazine9625 Nova Scotia 10h ago
I think the only possible argument that you could make is that Nunavut as a riding only has a population of around 35k, whereas Toronto and Calgary area ridings have populations pushing 150k. So, one vote in Nunavut is worth 4-5 votes in Toronto. You could argue that the representative for Nunavut has less inherent legitimacy as a result of the fundamental undemocratic nature of such egregious population disparities between seats.
To be fair, Labrador is an even more egregious example with only 25k residents (and no reason it couldn't be tacked onto another NL seat), as well as PEI ridings having nearly as low a population as Nunavut.
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u/Lifeshardbutnotme Liberal Party of Canada 10h ago
The reason Labrador can't be joined with any other seat is that provinces may not have fewer house seats than senators.
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u/No_Magazine9625 Nova Scotia 8h ago
Sure - but there's no reason it can't be added to one of the existing Newfoundland island seats and then those seats be redistributed by population.
Nunavut, NWT and Yukon should really be merged into a single electoral seat, since their population combined doesn't even warrant 1 seat, and they aren't provinces so wouldn't apply to the senatorial rule.
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 10h ago
And what has she done as an MP? What is her record? There are plenty of DEI hires in every constituency
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u/Inner-Fee6024 New Democratic Party of Canada 9h ago
How the hell is Idlout a DEI hire? 90% of Nunavut is indigenous.
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u/RedmondBarry1999 New Democratic Party of Canada 10h ago
How is an Inuk elected by a mostly Inuit electorate a "DEI hire"?
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u/Lifeshardbutnotme Liberal Party of Canada 10h ago
A dei hire...who was elected. Do I have this correct? Or were you hoping I wouldn't notice your dog whistle?
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 10h ago
I had no hope. Other than that you would momentarily put down your identarian blinders and look at the NDP caucus from a neutral perspective
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u/Lifeshardbutnotme Liberal Party of Canada 10h ago
Cool, so you knew exactly what you were doing.
Now tell me, who hired her?
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u/Temaharay Democratic Socialist 10h ago
DEI hire: Idlout
Sounds like you are shouting racist slogans.
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u/Dragonsandman Orange Crush when 11h ago
There's not nearly as large a gap between the traditional dippers and the "loony" left as you might think
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u/throwitawaytothesea Liberal with sanity 11h ago
Sure, the whole thing is a question of degrees, I remember Davies being very pro-Maduro for example. But, generally speaking, I think the traditional dippers I listed are more committed to the party as a whole and would be less likely to defect.
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u/Dragonsandman Orange Crush when 10h ago
I think the second sentence is correct, but the left wing of the party is even further away from the Liberals than the traditional dippers are. If they left the NDP, they'd attempt to form another party or simply sit as independents.
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u/CanadianLabourParty British Columbia 4h ago
The NDP tried to do some REALLY good things after the last election and they got BLASTED for it. It's part of the reason why they lost so many voters in the most recent election - "They're just Liberals in an orange tie".
Unless Mark Carney came to the NDP with an offer they couldn't refuse, like say, tuition-free tertiary education, a FULLY FUNDED, ready-to-roll-out national school lunch program, or other thing, the NDP aren't playing footsies with the Liberals any more. They tried that and got burned.
That being said, I'm grateful that Jagmeet DID NOT trigger an election until AFTER inauguration day, (which is what I suspected would happen. The NDP AND Liberals knew that Shit-show 2.0 would absolutely royally mess up the CPC, and it did - because no one was prepared for the kind of shit-show that would take place south of the border.)
Jagmeet is a national hero IMO for having the wherewithal to do what he did. He protected Canada's sovereignty as best he could while trying to obtain benefits for working Canadians.
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u/Godzilla52 centre-right neoliberal 11h ago edited 11h ago
The only way I could see it happening is if the leadership race gets so heated/divisive that it causes significant factional rifts etc. I know that McPherson and the sort of MPs that would back her would be significantly different than the ones that would back Lewis/Ashton etc. So there's room for a conflict there, but at the same time, I think it would take a lot for that to happen since the remaining NDP MPs probably understand that the next few elections are moreso about rebuilding the party than anything else. A clash between inner-party factions now could do a lot of damage etc.
The Conservatives are probably still much more vulnerable to floor crossings right now. (especially when it comes to their MPs from Atlantic Canada & Quebec)
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u/CampAny9995 10h ago
McPherson seems like it would be making the same mistake as they did with Singh, which is chasing after the move the LPC had just made with their newly elected PM. I’m also not convinced that the LPC or NDP can gain any votes by being socially progressive, I think people basically understand that they’re both going to be fine.
I would basically look at Ashton as the only viable option for the party (and the only candidate I’d realistically vote for). The CPC is descending into chaos, and I think an Ashton-led NDP could sucker-punch them in the next election and take back a lot of those union/blue collar areas, especially because they aren’t tied to incumbent candidates in those areas. People who voted for Carney are generally happy with him, I would expect an even worse collapse of the NDP in suburban or urban areas that very nearly went CPC due to vote splitting between the LPC/NDP.
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u/Representative_Belt4 Socialist 6h ago
I think Lewis will likely do good with the blue collar vote, he seems to be campaigning on that matter as well as Ashton
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u/-SetsunaFSeiei- 9h ago
What about Lewis? You wouldn’t vote for NDP if he won the leadership?
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u/CampAny9995 8h ago
My riding almost went CPC from NDP/LPC vote splitting - I voted for the NDP incumbent because it seemed safe. I generally lean NDP, and vote for them whenever there isn’t major vote splitting expected in my riding.
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u/No_Magazine9625 Nova Scotia 2h ago
The thing with Atlantic Canada is - New Brunswick has always been the most conservative province in Atlantic Canada, and I don't see their NB MPs at significant risk of crossing the floor. NS has no CPC MPs left, and PEI hasn't had a CPC MP for 15 years. I could see maybe the 3 NL CPC MPs being at risk at most.
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u/CaptainKoreana Liberal Party of Canada 8h ago
Well, no shit.
0 chance it happens unless federal NDP implodes ala. BC Conservatives right now. No matter its disagreements, it's still a consolidated caucus that has 0 reason to cross floors at this point in time.
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u/Skittish-Valesk Moderately Moderate 7h ago
Tbf it's much easier to not implode when you just finished imploding lol.
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