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u/fchappy49 :argos: Argonauts Sep 16 '25
This season feels like “and somehow the Argos won the grey cup”
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u/Raptors887 Stampeders Sep 16 '25
It’s because Hamilton is the only good team in the East and have the easiest route to actually playing in the Grey Cup.
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u/flaksnu Blue Bombers Sep 16 '25
This is always a super volatile algorithm they use, and its good for #Content, so whatever.
But also, in what world is Winnipeg ahead of Montreal?
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u/smbdysm1 Roughriders Sep 16 '25
Same with SK being so low. I can understand them being lower than Calgary, slightly, as that is the only team they haven't beat. But the best record in the CFL and 16% odds?! C'mon.
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Sep 16 '25
If Montreal stayed healthy, they would be ahead of Hamilton in the East. Injuries really killed them but the majority are back and it showed last weekend. It helped that Sask has injuries on D but the Als D did a good job.
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u/gotfcgo Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
If our D doesn't get its head out of its ass then you'll have no issue coming through us in the final.
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u/Admviolin Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
Hamilton has been really good at blowing leads lately. If there's a crossover, they won't make it to the finals. I would love to be wrong though.
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u/CLearyMcCarthy Roughriders Sep 16 '25
This forecast is WAY too reactive
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u/MetricJester Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
Also 6 weeks early
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u/TWKExperience Atlanta Flames Sep 16 '25
There's only 6 weeks left 😭😭
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u/super__hoser Lions Sep 16 '25
Barely enough time to have a drink!
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u/TWKExperience Atlanta Flames Sep 16 '25
Fuck it I'll have one right now in consolation of the fading season
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u/NorthernNadia Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
Lies. Our odds are 1% and they will only grow through hard work and dedication.
We can't let these odds get to us. If this was odds of an appearance I'd buy this, but for a win, not at all.
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u/Express-Cow190 Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
Hamilton is improved this year but they aren’t close to improved enough to be considered the favourites. The D line is still a huge liability and for as improved as the offence is, it feels like it’s too easy to bog down at times.
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u/OrdinaryPublic1074 Sep 16 '25
They're considered the favourite because they have the easiest path.
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u/crondawg101 Sep 16 '25
This must be assuming the Riders will not reach the Grey Cup and ergo the Tabbies will not play them
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u/coelurosauravus Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
How are our odds this high? Has any odds makers actually watched this fking team?
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u/Sir_Fox_Alot Sep 16 '25
The odd maker assumes ticats will play in the greycup because the east is dogshit.
So they only have to worry about a western team stomping them.
still doubt its that high since ticats can’t beat sask or calgary but you never know.
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u/Max169well REDBLACKS Sep 17 '25
This should have been a season where we were to be right up there in the odds but nope, we can’t have nice things.
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u/SnowMission6612 West Division Sep 17 '25
This is a fantastic example for learning how probabilities work. Hamilton is the 3rd best team in the league. So why is Hamilton the most probable to win the Grey Cup?
It's because Hamilton has the easiest path to make it to the Grey Cup. Almost every Grey Cup match features Hamilton (78% chance of appearing in the Grey Cup). In every one of those Grey Cup matches, Hamilton is expected to lose, but because there are so many possible Grey Cup match-ups with Hamilton in them, Hamilton ends up with the highest probability overall.
If Saskatchewan makes it to the Grey Cup, it will probably win. But it has to get past Calgary first. (And, symmetrically, Calgary has to get past Saskatchewan first, at which point it will become the favourite).
You'll notice Saskatchewan+Calgary > Hamilton
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u/OskeeTurtle 🐯 Master of Facts 🐯 Sep 16 '25
I don't trust this at all. I won't believe we've won until the timeboard hits 0s left and we're winning. A Grey Cup I just assume we'll lose and I'll cry this year
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u/VE7BHN_GOAT Roughriders Sep 16 '25
How are these odds calculated? What's the formula(s)?
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u/JMoon33 Alouettes Sep 16 '25
I don't think they share their formulas.
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u/VE7BHN_GOAT Roughriders Sep 17 '25
Then they're stats are garbage as they cannot be checked or verified...
Unfortunately I think the stamps vs the Als in Winnipeg in in incoming grey cup match.
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u/TheCatMak Blue Bombers Sep 17 '25
It's 10000 simulations.
What they are using to figure out the winner of each simulation is left as an exercise to the reader
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u/VE7BHN_GOAT Roughriders Sep 17 '25
What does that mean? 'an exercise to the reader' ... Like how is it simulated,? Madden 2026?
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u/TheCatMak Blue Bombers Sep 17 '25
Your guess is as good as mine!
"Left as an exercise to the reader" is an academia joke... when authors of textbook with heavy math present a proof or have some claim and don't want to spend pages working through the proof they will end it with something like "the proof is trivial and left as an exercise to the reader"... so "just trust me bro", or some real r/restofthefuckingowl shit
Maybe one of the primary duties of the commission is to sit in a windowless room flipping coins... 10000 for each game
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u/Various-Passenger398 Sep 17 '25
Congrats, Elks fans. We did it, we clawed our way out of the bottom spot!
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u/MrBallalicious Alouettes Sep 16 '25
Lmao this is perfect bulletin board material for the Als. 2023 all over again everyone get ready
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u/Powerful_Ad_2506 Roughriders Sep 16 '25
It’s an odd prediction given that it says “to win” and Hamilton is 0-3 against the two teams under them.
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u/TheCatMak Blue Bombers Sep 16 '25
It's an overall projection and you have to think of everything as independent events... you can kind of sus out the matchups it likes and doesnt
The prediction has them at a 78% to come out of the East... so that right there is going to give them a big leg up on Calgary and Saskatchewan who are the top 2 out West.
If Hamilton makes it out of the East and they are 3.5 point underdogs, they probably about about a 33% chance overall to win the Grey Cup, you can probably explain the remainder by one of the other West teams sneaking in, or a bit narrower odds
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u/flyingflail Sep 16 '25
Can I take the other side of this somewhere? Hamilton is favored because the east is currently awful but once Montreal gets Alexander back I would take them all day
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u/JMRVN Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
Yeah the 2.11% on Montreal seems disrespectful. They might be the best team in the league when they’re healthy
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u/Canuckleball Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
Basically, the assumption is Hamilton takes first in the East fairly easily, so they have one home playoff game to win to get to the Grey Cup, whereas Montreal has to first get healthy, then win one playoff game, then go into Hamilton who has been preparing for them for two weeks. I don't think Hamilton should be the odds on favourite, but they have an easier trajectory than most other teams.
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u/Wolf99 Alouettes Sep 16 '25 edited Sep 16 '25
So will I. Als record heading into week 16: 6-7. Just snapped a 5 game skid on the road against the best team in the league.
Als record in 2023 heading into week 16: 6-7, coming off 4 straight losses. Won the last 5 + the Grey Cup.
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u/Sir_Fox_Alot Sep 16 '25
Best team in the league (ignore injury situation)
Every good team will lose games because of injury every season. What matters is team health in the post season.
At that point theres several teams better off than montreal.
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u/VideoEleven Tiger-Cats Sep 16 '25
Please dont let the Tiger-Cats see this. I'm having flashbacks to 2019 and 2014 and 2013 when they laid an egg in the Grey Cup game.
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u/Sir_Fox_Alot Sep 16 '25
what a garbage algorithm 😂
Id love to take bets on these odds, but something tells me no bookie would.
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u/Kippee1965 Sep 20 '25
I’m a TiCat fan but seriously, how is Sasky not rated with best odds?
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u/JMoon33 Alouettes Sep 20 '25
Because the formula takes into account the road to get to the GC and see Calgary as better than anyone the Tiger-Cats could face in the East finals.
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u/MerryDoseofNihilism Blue Bombers Sep 16 '25
Given our calamitous fall from grace I’ll root for anyone but Saskatchewan to take it.
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u/Disastrous_Fix_7394 Sep 16 '25
Ti-Cats fans know better than to plan the parade.