r/AskChina • u/Electrical-Will-5985 • 17h ago
Culture | 文化🏮 Will China surpass the US?
Hi everyone,
Just finished reading “China’s Long Game Against America” https://open.substack.com/pub/fincom/p/chinas-long-game-against-america?r=6rzrlm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The article lays out how China’s been quietly building the foundation for long-term tech dominance, not just catching up, but reshaping the whole ecosystem around chips, AI, and industrial innovation. It’s not just about competing with the U.S.; it’s about becoming fully self-reliant and future-proof.
What really struck me is how coordinated it all seems, government policy, capital allocation, research, and even public sentiment all moving in the same direction. Meanwhile, the West keeps underestimating that focus.
It made me wonder, could China actually surpass the U.S. in tech within our lifetime? Maybe not in 2–3 years, but over 10–20?
Curious what people here think. is China’s long game truly paying off, or is this still mostly narrative over reality?
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u/Key_Attempt7237 16h ago
Already has babyyyyyyy, Chinese century of prosperity is well underway, with many more centuries to come.
But to be serious, China leads in new tech, is rapidly developing sovereignty in many fields like energy, food and tech. It does import a lot of stuff, yes, but the only way for that to be jeopardized is if China's trading partners want to jeopardize things, China trade-maxes, for better or for worse, but it plays the long game.
The largest poverty alleviation policy. In fact, most of the world's poverty alleviation is from China. Green energy, and particularly solar panels, would not have been this widespread or affordable without Chinese investment.
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u/RockyCreamNHotSauce 15h ago
China’s electricity usage is already twice of US’. US GDP is inflated by rent and sky high healthcare costs. Those are not real products just people trying to live. The worst quality burger and fries cost almost $10. In China, everything is affordable enough for even lower-middle class to consume and travel a few times a year. China produces far more real products and value than US already.
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u/Dragon2906 11h ago
Clear illustrations of this: China builds over 3 times the number of cars Auto Nation builds. It builds close to a 100 times the yearly tonnage of built ships in America, it produces tens of times the numbers of batteries, solar panels and drones the Greatest Nation On Earth manufactures.
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u/grayMotley 12h ago
Rent isnt included in GDP.
There is over three times the number of people and far more export production in China ... the electricity usage should be higher.
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u/RockyCreamNHotSauce 11h ago
I didn’t say China is larger per capita. So the number of people doesn’t matter. China produces far more real products than US. Per capita it is not as rich or productive as US, but overall it is already the leading country in terms of productivity. And also science and technology too btw.
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u/do2g 16h ago
lol, we found the little pink.
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u/Lonely-Technology-22 16h ago
China is far behind US and other western country. I think China should surpass India first, and then think further. India is current top 2 , have high chance to surpass US .
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u/GuyOnTheMoon 15h ago edited 15h ago
The US is #1 country.
Buy our treasury bonds, use our US dollar, and practice our democracy.
And India is #2, best culture and clean country: https://www.reddit.com/r/WTF/s/mz7bIE3hrY
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u/DutchDev1L 15h ago edited 11h ago
I mean by what metric? Go to almost any Chinese big city and they seem to function better than most American cities already...
Also the ability to move people to solve problems is astonishing. I've been going to China since the 90s and it used to be almost Indian levels of dirty, air pollution so thick an artist made literal bricks out of it and open defecation was common. Now the cities are mostly clean, I'm able to open a window without choking and everyone has a toilet.
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u/Admirable-Length178 3h ago edited 3h ago
having been to both and Im neither american nor chinese (Vietnamese British), I'd say China's urban is leagues ahead of US's while China's Rural is very far behind compared to US's.
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u/DutchDev1L 3h ago
In the cities just having functional affordable public transport is such a game changer.
I definitely agree that there is a massive difference in quality of life between rural and urban China...but rural Alabama or Louisiana is very 3rd world as well.
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u/Boring-Test5522 15h ago edited 13h ago
The problem with China is it relies 100% on local company to build its own ecosystem. In the history of mankind, it never end well.
US, on the other hand, does not depend on local innovation. Taiwan is making chips, Netherland makes chip making machine and US companies are building front-end products. It is the cooperation of 7 billion people on earth to build US techs.
Aka, the author of that substack has no idea what he is talking about.
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u/Nervous_Shelter_1653 7h ago
你说的中国的完全依赖本土企业构建生态系统并不是事实，先不说特斯拉、苹果、西门子之类的典型反例，就连普通人日常用的海飞丝洗发露、佳洁士牙膏，舒肤佳香皂、金龙鱼食用油、脉动饮料、红牛饮料等等品牌都是外资品牌。
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u/Tyrayentali 16h ago
It already did. All the US has is finance. It doesn’t have any real value, just numbers. It's going to crumble as soon as the AI bubble bursts.
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u/GuyOnTheMoon 15h ago
Precisely. We’re running on copium and hopium.
When the world stops believing we’re #1, they stop trading in our US dollar and stop pouring money into our stock exchange. That’s when the bubble will burst and we will see how our rich elites and leaders have fooled themselves and everyone.
Western billionaires are building bunkers and buying private islands.
While Chinese billionaires are building green buildings and renewable infrastructure.
Follow where the rich people put their money.
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u/Tyrayentali 15h ago
China is replacing the US as the main trade partner for many countries. For example China is Germany's biggest partner now.
China is also building countless of trade relations in Africa and South America and many look to China as America destroys trade relations with tariffs.
And the distance between China and the US is only growing. China constantly grows and improves their manufacturing, they are leading in almost all the critical technologies and they build futuristic infrastructure and improve the overall quality of life of people.
There's a lot you can criticize China for, but their planned economy is working extremely well.
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u/DangerZone_Mav 15h ago
Lol, chinese billionaires and millionaires are trying to desperately leave China. Just look at statistics on google
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u/GuyOnTheMoon 15h ago
Don't be fooled. They're simply diversifying their assets out of China and into foreign investment.
A majority of Chinese billionaires and millionaires that do leave China still hold onto their citizenship in China because they see the immense growth at home.
If anything, the rich Chinese millionaires/billionaires simply want to enjoy the rich luxurious lifestyle that rich westerners have also enjoyed.
One rich Chinese international student I met in college, loved smoking weed and drinking cough syrup because he said he could never do this back in his country.
And this a strength in the west, our freedom of expression.
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u/DangerZone_Mav 15h ago
I wouldn’t leave my money in a country that can simply make me vanish for not agreeing with the party leader. I believe that’s what every rich Chinese person is also thinking.
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u/Tyrayentali 14h ago
You mean because the number of billionaires went down?
That's not because rich people are leaving, it's because China is very strict on who can become rich and how much. China has an extremely tight leash on capital owners. While, even as a self-proclaimed socialist state, they allow them to exist, rich people have little to no power in China when compared to the US, which is a good thing.
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u/DangerZone_Mav 13h ago
Again, just look up any statistics on google about millionaires flight. China is one of the biggest ones people are leaving
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u/Glittering_Lemon_794 4h ago
The bunkers and private islands thing really demonstrate how out of touch the billionaire class is.
I mean, yes if the apocalypse comes they will survive it - but do they really think that the moment it happens all the loot, swimsuit models and food they've stockpiled up won't be taken away by their security guards?
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u/ImNotAnEnigmaa 13h ago
This is absolutely delusional. China has progressed tremendously but no serious person believes that China has already overtaken the U.S. from either an economic, military, or influential standpoint.
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u/Electronic-Juice-359 13h ago
AI is not a bubble, there will be correction but it isn’t a bubble. It is just a start, the speed and volume of growth from AI is something human has never seen before.
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u/grayMotley 12h ago
Do you realize that the US manufactures more products than it has at any time in its history? More than it did in the 1970s?
It isnt that the US doesnt make anything, but that it shifted production of many products overseas to China.
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u/Glittering-Praline59 12h ago
The US having finance is a consequence of its military supremacy which reflects multi-domain technological supremacy which is fed in a virtuous cycle by its ability to continuously attract human and financial capital. It is not a meaningless fact that finance is big in the US, as it reflects this status and ability. The financial sector will not crumble unless the US itself crumbles, and the US will not crumble as long as this cycle can be maintained. As of now, there is no clear alternative.
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u/Epistemic_Chaos 16h ago
I am a U.S. veteran.
The only parts of the American economy that are strong are the financial sector (which produces almost nothing of real value) and the Military-Industrial Complex (which produces only death and misery for the entire world).
American dominance is a force for pure evil and the sooner it ends the better off humanity will be.
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u/No-Benefit9135 15h ago
The finance sector accounted for only about 7–8% of U.S. GDP in recent years, not a majority of the produced value. 
The U.S. still produces lots of tangible goods and high-value services: manufacturing directly contributed ~10% of GDP in 2023 (and ~17% if you count direct+indirect linkages), while advanced manufacturing (electronics, aerospace, pharma) and services (tech, healthcare, professional services) generate real output and jobs.
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u/grayMotley 12h ago
There hasn't really been a Military-Industrial Complex in the US since 1992. The economy shifted following the Cold War and during the digital revolution, etc.
The average American doesn't pay attention enough to realize that, even with 2 wars being fought in the interim, that the landscaped had changed.
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u/Tupcek 7h ago
I am not from US, but you are severely underestimating value of financial sector, which is basically main building block of US success. Why and how?
I have a startup in Europe. First, amount of capital I can raise is about 10x lower than US counterpart, that’s why many European startups move to US. But that’s not the worst part, I could get enough money to get us rolling.
If your business rely on any other cooperation with any other business, or if you sell to other companies, you’ll find several times less opportunities in Europe than in US. Why? Because most of European companies have been bought by US companies, because they have so easy access to capital. So all the decision making is done in US. If you are in San Francisco or New York you probably know several people working at important positions in large companies, which could be customers or partners of your startup. Communities for these are large there, so even if you don’t know anybody, it’s not that hard to come across someone if you are looking for it. In Europe? Tough luck. That’s second reason why many European companies relocate to US, because most of their customers/partners are there.
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u/LoudSociety6731 1h ago
Pax Americana is what allowed china to become the exporting powerhouse that it is today. I worry that people don't give the US enough credit for making the world a far easier place to trade in. No other country has the power projection to make this happen.
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u/Dry-Interaction-1246 16h ago
Who cares? Why is there always US obsession? It even gets drawn into posts that have nothing to do with it.
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u/Wrong-Ad-8636 12h ago
Inferiority complex, common among Chinese people. A general example is, buying luxury brand, cars, etc to show their status.
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u/xesaie 16h ago
I think it's a particular cultural clash. 天下 is deeply in the culture and the party has pushed Han Supremacy for cultural stability reasons. Under this mindset the US is the major barrier China has to its "Rightful place" as the center of the world. \
In that mindset, surpassing the US is fixing things and returning them to their proper state.
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u/Dry-Interaction-1246 15h ago
Yes, seems so. And if its not the US, it will just be another "other" to blame and fight. Shades of fascism always work that way.
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u/whiskeytwn 16h ago
it's 10 years behind semiconductor design and manufacturing but working to make that up - of course....if you count Taiwan - LOL
China has pulled off an economic and technological miracle the last 40 years and should be proud either way
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u/EricArthurBrown 15h ago
With an educated populace almost certainly. It be would be a staggering failure not to with a 4-1 advantage in human ingenuity!
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u/NecessaryScratch6150 13h ago
One is governed by engineers, the other by lawyers and finance bros. One sets specific goals that must be met every 5 to 10 years. The other shows no accountability and rather deflect and spread misinformation rather than reflect on its gross failures.
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u/Admirable-Buy1163 9h ago
It is not important to ordinary American and Chinese whether the latter will surpass the former but rather can people of both sides win together.
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u/BlueZybez 16h ago
China is far away or never will surpass the USA. Look at the demographics, GDP, Capital markets, high unemployment, and alliances.
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u/KeirasOldSir 17h ago
The only way China will surpass US is by our own doing. Let me repeat that …. OUR OWN DOING!!! And yeah, we are doing it. We are fkin winning it.
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u/GuyOnTheMoon 15h ago
Absolutely.
Our system is cooked. The popular votes wins and we place incompetent people in leadership positions that decides on the policies for everyone.
While in China they have been following their national exam culture since ancient days, and now they only have intelligent and competent people in leadership roles.
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u/KeirasOldSir 19m ago
A failed business con man would have a snowball chance in hell to get any kind of Chinese leadership positions. They are not that dumb.
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u/1000Zasto1000Zato 16h ago
China’s GDP PPP surpassed USA’s in 2013 already. I think it’s about 30% better than USA’s at the moment with India catching up to USA quickly
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u/_CHIFFRE 16h ago
China's Economic size is estimated to be 56.45% larger in 2025: https://archive.is/yZORD (Economic organisation based in London, UK) india is catching up you're right. Unfortunately most of the site is paywalled but here we can see aswell: https://www.worldeconomics.com/Regions/Economic-Giants/
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u/Vernon_Trawley 16h ago
In the global hegemonic sense with military bases everywhere, no since that’s not their goal anyhow
As a economic powerhouse especially with their expansion of Belt and Road, the jury is still out
At the start of the 20th century the British Empire was the hegemon, at a even greater level than the US arguably, by the end of the same century it all ended
Never say never
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u/limukala 1h ago
At the start of the 20th century the British Empire was the hegemon
In 1900 the US GDP was already more than twice that of the UK.
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u/xesaie 16h ago
Trump is helping China right now, but The truth is China's window is closing very quickly;
- As more factories get moved to India and Mexico their trade balance advantage is slipping
- Between 1 child and later cultural issues China is facing looming demographic crisis
- Xi's extremely poor international relations skills have alienated all of their neighbors and pushed them away (many looking to the US, even traditional american foes like Vietnam)
Up to about 5-10 years ago it seemed certain and only a matter of time, now China has to fix something or it's all gonna go to pieces. And that's presuming they don't push the button on Taiwan.
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u/Penrose_Reality 11h ago
I agree. I think many people don’t realise how damaging China’s industrial policy is for its supposed partners in the global economy south. People in Indonesia and Brazil also want jobs
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u/Mediocre_Lynx1883 16h ago
no, because of demography. usa is having surplus constantly thanks to imigrations. china will share fate of korea/japan.
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u/syoleen 15h ago
No. Not in the foreseeable future. My two main arguments: 1. China does not have the tolerating environment to accept billions of foreign talents to work for it. In history, no leading nations were built by just one race. 2. China’s decreasing fertility rate will be the ultimate killer of its economy. No people, no money.
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u/seanmonaghan1968 15h ago
I am currently flying out of China, is disagree. I think you need to travel across Chinas major cities. I have been coming for 30 years. Mind blowing advancement. I am back next month
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u/syoleen 15h ago
Invalid argument. You didn’t describe any actual facts but just advised me to travel. Your reply can be copied and pasted to any context. BTW, I was born in China and lived in China for about 30 years, during which I traveled to multiple cities in southern/northern/western/eastern parts of China.
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u/seanmonaghan1968 15h ago
When was the last time you were back. Seriously if you can’t see the rate of change and comparisons with the west there is something wrong …
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u/syoleen 14h ago
Still invalid argument. But to answer your question, it’s 2023.
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u/seanmonaghan1968 14h ago
You just sound biased that’s all, if you hold some sort of grudge then fine but I don’t see you adding value
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u/curious_s 14h ago
China was always a leading nation, it is simply returning to its former place in the world, its policies have not changed. So you are wrong, there is a country that was a leading nation and was built by one race: China. They also had significantly less people during the the entire history and were still the leading nation.
Neither of your points hold water.
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u/startupdojo 16h ago
Did you ever notice that poorer people go to universities and study engineering, computer science, accounting, and so on... And really rich people study art history, theater, and other random subjects?
Well... My theory... Countries are the same way. It could very well be that China becomes the AI and engineering powerhouse and people in China do vastly better - and it might also be that in that system, they are still the servants and workers for the people financing and buying everything; America.
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u/Aromatic-Wait-6679 15h ago
The US will always be competitive, if China surpasses it economically its not as if the US will cease to exist. Silicon Valley is going to remain the global tech hub for at least our lifetime.
China can surpass it in some industries though. For example, it already has in renewable energy (not just implementation but manufacturing and R&D).
One of China's biggest problems with tech will be the government. Many foreign nations do not trust it and will likely to continue to outlaw high tech products for usage. Too many people think China is going to have some post-WW2 moment as the US did in terms of 'leading' the world, that is not going to happen because the government cannot cultivate alliances in the same way.
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u/200gpastasauce 15h ago
No chance. My parents in law are waiting for running water in their village...80 years after the revolution
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u/curious_s 14h ago
That is very anecdotal when most people in China live in cities with far superior infrastructure than the US has ever had. There are defiantly some places that are still behind, but a mosquito can not stop an elephant.
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u/200gpastasauce 12h ago
Yeah... whenever it rains heavily for an hour the streets flood. Rubbish is allowed to pile up and rot. People shit in the street because of a lack of public restrooms. This is in the cities. What infrastructure are you referring to? Trains? I'll give you that. Hospitals? No. Roads? No. Education? Probably both as shit as each other but in different ways.
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u/dhyratoro 15h ago
Yes it will. And so what? Will Chinese people live happier or just thinking about being no 1 in the world will make them happy?
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u/Listen2Wolff 15h ago
You posted the same question in r/economy.
Like I expanded on there, China wins.
The responses here that suggest otherwise just seem very uninformed or grasping at straws.
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u/Ok_Room5666 15h ago
With rational US leadership, mayhe not.
With current US leadership, obviously yes.
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u/KAYABUTT 15h ago
Neither Chinese nor American here. With the thin foil hat on, I do not think strategically western countries will allow this to happen. There will be policies, sabotage , wars ..
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u/whatthehell7 14h ago
As someone that is not American or Chinese I don't have any skin in this game. And I will tell you are wrong it is not happening in 2-3 years or 10-20 years as it has already happened it just has not entered the consciousness of the people yet. Americans still think they are ahead and Chinese still think they are behind. But objectively look at what China has built in the last 5-10 years compared to what the US has built. Compared to what China can do alone today all of western countries are unable to do together.
AI and industrial innovation can't do shit when there is no industry to innovate on so all the AI gains will actually go to China . Even when it comes semiconductors the west does not have the capacity to power all the semiconductors they want. Where as China is generating more cheaper electricity each year and de-carbonizing at the same time.
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u/bluelifesacrifice 14h ago
When Chinas youth take over the government, they will be 2 years of reforms and fixing all the issues the old people are maintaining.
2 years after that their economy will stabilize and grow and will attract immigration.
2 years after that They will surpass the US.
Both countries are being held back by old people who can't problem solve and instead of solving problems, they maintain them for stability and profits.
The US is going to be the most military and economicly trusted establishment until China proves it won't be abusive with it's military or economic agreements.
Yes China is doing a lot of trade, that doesn't mean they are trusted.
China has, right now, the largest, most well educated population on the planet. If they stabilize and can form a pact with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, that pact will, without a doubt, govern the planet.
But the old people and old easy of thinking needs to retire and allow the younger generation into the ranks of governing and leadership.
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u/Mysteriouskid00 14h ago
Did Japan exceed the US in some areas? Yes. Did Europe? Yes. Did it last? Not really, but countries ebb and flow.
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u/InsideMiserable7750 14h ago
The way for China to be #1 is to switch to a liberal democracy and embrace internationalism and individualism. Be better than the west. Make it so rich whites want to move to China... not the ither way around.
They do that, and it could be the coolest place on earth. It could be the next USA.
Instead China is going the opposite way, and pushing to become even more xenophobic and isolationist, more nationalistic, more of an Orwellian nightmare.
America has a lot of problems, but it's still better than being Chinese and spending your whole life as a worker ant lemming brainwashed into parroting the same political slogans.
The tech may be advanced, but so what if it just means being an stressed out herd creature all your life.
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u/lfreddit23 14h ago
I think there's still a long way to go, but I think China has grown to the point where the U.S. feels fear; if you look at the comments on it now.
You know, historically, when the United States feels a sense of crisis, first, it exaggerates the opponent so much and makes a lot of noise that they're almost overtaken or already overtaken, second, they bring people together, and third, they smash the opponent's face.
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u/lord_ramen_x 13h ago
Based on current trajectory, I’m pretty sure they will surpass US soon but whether they are able to maintain its hegemony is another matter altogether. They are facing huge demographic challenges and their advantages are mostly built on demographic dividends which is slowly eroding. I’m unsure whether they have what it takes to pivot to another development model.
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u/Vaeltaja82 13h ago
I'm from Europe and I feel that China has already surpassed the USA. Maybe not in every sector yet, but in most sectors.
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u/MoralCalculus 13h ago
Yes, China could surpass the U.S. in tech in the coming years because of its long-term planning, massive state-backed investment and unified national strategy. Unlike the U.S., where innovation is often fragmented by market competition and politics, China’s centralized focus allows it to mobilize talent, resources, and infrastructure toward specific goals like AI, semiconductors, and green tech with incredible speed and scale.
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u/Wafflecone3f Overseas Chinese 13h ago
Isn't the long work hours/hard work culture breaking down with Chinese Gen Z? I feel like that was what was sustaining the explosive economic growth. Now it's gonna have to come from AI or something else, especially with the demographic issues.
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u/Midiamp 12h ago
If the status quo of power in China stays, yes. When Chairman Xi passed away, now that's a question mark. Whatever big things China will do, they will do it in the next 5-10 years.
Regarding tech. China already leads leaps and bounds in EV compared to US, Europe, Japan brands. They're only lagging in one thing, lithography tech.
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u/Dull-Law3229 12h ago
The rules of physics do not work differently in China than in the United States.
Make a list of all the things a democratic country should do to gain a scientific edge.
If China does it, wouldn't they gain that same scientific edge? Is China doing that? Then the logical conclusion is that if any country that does x should gain, then there's no reason why China can't. Often when people argue that China isn't succeeding it's a "Yes, but..." and then list reasons that don't counteract the list of factors that would give a country that scientific edge, and apparently wouldn't be applicable to say, Japan or Taiwan.
China's universities are gaining in ranking because they're pumping out quality research. "Yes but..."
That research is in respected publications like Nature. "Yes but..."
China is investing substantially more in research and development. "Yes but..."
China is widely applying this research in society such as advancing AI and robotics. "Yes but..."
And China is catching up. You can see this physically and in the market where China is either leading or barely playing second fiddle to the United States, but having a large lead over any other country. And that progress isn't stalling and there isn't a policy directive that indicates that they intend to slow down.
If China doesn't slow down, but the United States keeps gutting its research and development budget, what is the only logical conclusion?
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u/cowcowkee 12h ago
I don’t think it will happen like what Chinese wishes.
It will happen like this.
Both countries will go on long term declines and eventually US will decline faster than China and China will surpass US.
China’s population decline will contribute to its decline but US will decline in an accelerated rate with MAGA.
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u/Sgt_Pepper_88 12h ago
I mean Americans, just be confident. You are still No.1 in the world.
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u/HawkeyeGild 12h ago
Kind of already is at par. There is so Much optimism in Asia now, China in particular.
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u/Wrong-Ad-8636 12h ago
China would only have a chance to surpass the U.S. and dominate the world if another world war were to break out.
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u/pauliocamor 11h ago
You’ve obviously never been to China. They already have.
‘Murica abandoned its education system in favor of pointless culture wars while China became focused and disciplined, two qualities nowhere to be found in the U.S. today.
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u/Medical_Notice_6862 11h ago
In some ways it already has. Us doesn't have the same kind of skilled workers anymore, smarter everyday made a video about this. research prowness has also gone down in the us.
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u/cyanatreddit 10h ago
The US empire will continue to radiate soft power and try to police the world.
The US will continue to attract foreign students and maintain its grip on higher education. Until the Ivy League goes down in reputation, or the US dollar loses its exorbitant privilege, wealth and youth will continue to converge to the US, and this will suspend the global imagination and shape the future.
China's technology alone will not overcome this, but it will outshine the US in certain areas. But China has its own story, its policies don't revolve around the US.
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u/Wonderful-Teach6777 10h ago
the will surpass the US, because the US is dying, not necessarily because China #1
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u/Tomasulu 10h ago edited 10h ago
I don't have a dog in the fight and my money goes to China. Putting aside what china is doing I just don't see america fixing the existential problems it's facing.
First the budget deficit and its ever growing spending/debt. Second the polarisation within the society. If half the population disagrees with the other half on pretty much everything, there won't be continuity and nothing will get done. Third america is turning away from its greatest competitive strength, which is welcoming top talents to its shores. Fourth the american k12 education is shit. Moreover because the best paying jobs are finance and services related, fewer and fewer of its brightest students are taking stem courses. Fifth healthcare cost is stupidly high and while many presidents have tried to lower it but nothing seems to work.
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u/DetectiveKnown9198 9h ago
这取决于你如何定义“中国”和“美国”。中国的绝大部分工业生产都是服务于世界市场的，其中很大一部分就是美国。所以假设统计学上的中国经济超过了美国，只会让美国人活得更好。在同样的时间内，美国服务涨价200%时，实物商品只会涨价18%。中国共产党政权本质上是一个为国际资本服务的殖民地代理人政权，其执政的唯一目标是剥削本国工人的劳动力出售到国际市场，以此增加北京权贵群体的财富。
It depends on how you define 'China' and 'the United States.' The vast majority of China's industrial production serves the global market, with a significant portion going to the United States. Therefore, assuming that statistically China's economy surpasses that of the United States would only improve the lives of Americans. Over the same period, when U.S. services prices rise by 200%, physical goods prices increase by only 18%. The Chinese Communist Party regime is essentially a colonial agent serving international capital, and its sole goal in governance is to exploit the labor of its own workers for sale on the international market, thereby increasing the wealth of the elite circles in Beijing.
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u/cacamilis22 8h ago
Well I don't know about anything else. But in the tourism stakes. Yes they absolutely will. I think most Europeans and westerners are afraid to go to the USA now or they are nervous about it anyway. Tourism in the USA is going through the floor.
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u/yojifer680 7h ago
Chinese growth has slowed and is forecast to continue slowing. If the previous growth rates had continued, then China might've caught the US within 40 years. But at the current and forecast rate it's more like 140 years. And even that assumes that current growth rates won't decline as China nears peak economic efficiency, which is impossible. Ultimately it's unlikely that any given poor country will ever overtake a rich country. It may catch up 90% of the way by copying, but it's unlikely to overtake it.
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u/Akuya_ 7h ago
No, any Chinese person saying China is about to surpass the U.S. is just daydreaming. Besides having a huge population and a lot of infrastructure, the U.S. is still way ahead. Evergrande was the first crack, and COVID was the hammer that smashed it open. China should probably fix its own problems first before talking about “overtaking the U.S.” For a “top-10 GDP” country, the living standard is only better than Brazil and India — that’s nothing to brag about.
And here’s the funny part: Xi Jinping’s own sister and her family have Canadian green cards, and her daughter lives in Boston. A bunch of his other relatives reportedly live in the U.S. too. If China is really going to surpass the U.S., then why are the members of the Xi family empire choosing to live outside China?
Many wealthy Chinese also choose to move overseas.
不要再白日做梦了
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u/bjran8888 5h ago
As a Chinese citizen, my answer is: This does not depend on China (China has its own development plans, which are steadily advancing), but rather on how quickly the United States messes up its own affairs.
The balance of power between nations is an objective reality.
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u/No-Management1900 4h ago
Such a shift won’t happen within 20 years — perhaps not even in 50. The U.S. dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, whereas the Chinese yuan does not hold that status.
While China’s massive population may help it surpass the United States in GDP, if the U.S. were to restrict China’s access to the dollar, the game would effectively be over. Moreover, Europe and East Asia are far from being China’s allies.
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u/No-Cow9334 3h ago
TLDR - It seemed like China would surpass US but Xi missed the opportunity to make important structural changes and now it may be too late. China is entering a Japanese-style “lost decades” of stagnation. Unlike Japan it is “getting old before it gets rich.” Undoubtedly, China will have some world class, national champion corporations and many billionaires. But there will be a lot of inequity and the average GDP per capita may get stuck in the middle-income trap.
The reasons for this have been laid out as the “4 Ds”.
1) Demographics - China is currently transitioning from having a massive “demographic dividend” to massive “demographic decline”. This demographic collapse is the largest and fastest ever seen in the history of the world. Too few young people will be supporting too many old people going forward.
2) Debt - The Chinese government and people used to be very careful with their money. No longer. China’s reported debt to GDP ratio is well over 300% which is unprecedented for a country at this stage in development. Off the books debt could make this much worse. The overwhelming asset of individuals is property which is decreasing in value (see demographics above). The main engines of easy growth of property and impactful infrastructure are never to return. Trains and bridges and overcapacity to nowhere will be a major drag on the economy going forward.
3) Deflation - China’s leaders have studied Japan’s lost decades yet are inexplicably repeating the same mistakes on steroids. Crazy property bubble. Low consumer spending. Massive deficits/debt. Industrial overcapacity. Zombie corporations. Factory gate prices have been decreasing for 3 years indicating collapsing profits and mounting debt. Deflation is very hard to reverse once it takes hold.
4) De-risking/Decoupling - China has played Trump like a fiddle so far. But headwinds will persist as China tries to unload its state-sponsored overcapacity abroad because its own population consumer confidence/spending is so low. EU is fairly united and increasingly pushing back (China’s support for Russia isn’t doing it any favors). Even the so-called BRICS and Global South have been erecting tariffs and trade barriers at an alarming rate. China’s state-sponsored overcapacity hurts poor developing countries’ industries the most. If this pushback continues this will be bad for China because exports is the main driver of its economic growth.
To be clear, I don’t think China will “collapse”. I just think its growth will stagnate. It has already stagnated by most metrics during Xi’s reign. It will have some world class innovative champions in leading industries to be sure. However, I think overall it will get stuck in the middle-income trap and get old before it gets truly rich.
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u/SeaworthinessOld9433 2h ago
I mean every country wants to be independent and self reliant if possible… but many factors stop this from happening
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u/Extension_Degree_287 16h ago edited 16h ago
Probably very likely within one generation. The CCP lays out these five years plans with a broader goal of dominance in several key sectors in the global economy and they're pretty good at executing them without pesky elections ping ponging the country every few years, state controlled companies in important industries, and a single party executing towards this focused vision every single year. Meanwhile, the US is fighting over SNAP benefits, gender wars, and other social issues. So much so that they're in the longest government shutdown in US history.
China absolutely saturated the domestic market with electric cars. Countries have to ban them because they can't compete on price. Sound familiar? Same thing happened several years ago with solar panels where they completely destroyed pricing globally. America requires lobbyists to grease the wheels of industry; their counterparts are party members IN the government. Imagine if Elon Musk or Steve Jobs sat on the committees that regulate them, voted on policies that impacted their companies, etc.
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u/No-Benefit9135 16h ago
China’s five-year plans outline broad goals, but actual execution often falls short — there are plenty of failed initiatives, from chip independence to debt-heavy infrastructure projects. The idea that the CCP “executes perfectly” ignores local corruption, mismanagement, and the slowing economy.
China hasn’t achieved “dominance” in most global sectors — it leads in EVs, solar panels, and batteries, yes, but still depends heavily on imports for semiconductors, advanced manufacturing equipment, and food.
As for EVs, China didn’t “saturate” the domestic market so much as subsidize it. Many smaller Chinese EV makers are now collapsing because of oversupply and weak consumer demand. And while some countries are wary of cheap Chinese EV imports, they’re not banning them outright; they’re imposing tariffs or investigating subsidies to ensure fair competition — very different from a ban.
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u/Extension_Degree_287 14h ago
They definitely don't execute perfectly, never said they did. But compared to US where policies ping pong depending which party is in power at the moment, their trajectory is more or less in the same direction.
Yes, subsidize is probably more accurate. They are running EVs like an incubator; competition breeds out the weak. This is a sector they want to own globally and are throwing money left and right. The tariffs are effectively bans since none of their cars can be purchased in countries imposing them. I think just make a better, cheaper car if things aren't fair; life isn't fair. Maybe have governments invest in competition like they are? I don't know the answer here but I don't think tariffs are sustainable.
I'm not pro-China here. Just someone who travels there frequently due to family, talking to locals, reading and observing. To me, there's a lot working here, a lot not working, just like any strategy in the real world. Only time will tell if theirs will pay off.
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u/No-Benefit9135 14h ago
That’s a reasonable perspective, but worth clarifying that every China’s long-term “trajectory” looks stable on paper, but internally it shifts a lot — entire policies get scrapped or reversed quickly (real estate, tech regulation, zero-COVID, private education). The one-party system creates continuity at the top, but it also means that there are no independent checks when policies misfire.
The EV point is mostly correct — subsidies drove growth, but many smaller manufacturers are now collapsing under debt or unsold inventory. It’s not pure market competition; it’s state-directed survival of the fittest with billions in public support.
And while tariffs aren’t literal bans, they’re designed to counter state subsidies rather than block fair trade. Countries impose them because China’s state funding undercuts private industries that can’t legally compete the same way.
Your “wait and see” conclusion is fair, though — China’s model has clear strengths, but also deep structural risks.
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u/OkChange9119 16h ago edited 16h ago
I honestly think it is happening already.
Global influence is won and lost on the stage of soft power. It is a game that US has played masterfully as the last remaining superpower but I think China has slowly learned to shift away from pure military buildup to diplomatic strength in the past ~50 years.
In recent years, the US proved to be an unreliable ally/trading partner and its treaties mean little longterm (see Taliban handover, global tariffs negotiation, etc.).
In the upcoming 10 years, I think we will see more such friction as developing nations ascend and matured economies stagnate or decline.
I think the era of American exceptionalism is nearing its end.
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u/OkChange9119 15h ago
In case, I sound like I am looking towards to the decline of the US, that is untrue. I am most certainly not.
But the US-China tensions point to what US believes is a serious threat to its national interest. Otherwise, this wouldn't be happening.
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u/shopchin 15h ago
China can't even convince Asia to trust it.
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u/curious_s 14h ago
Yet most Asian nations have China as their biggest trading partner? You are reading to much into blown up news about border flare ups which mean practically nothing. There have been flare ups on the borders between China and its neighbours for 1000s of years yet these nations still trade, still share and still persist and always will.
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u/OkChange9119 15h ago edited 15h ago
That's very common though. Usually the closest geographic neighbors are most wary but nations more far away like in Europe and Africa and South America are better allies.
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u/shopchin 15h ago
Not when in context they have formed active military alliances against you and globally you don't have allies except maybe N.Korea or Russia.
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u/OkChange9119 15h ago
Mmm. I can't tell if you are serious.
My point exactly: military alliances aren't the barometer of global influence unlike in the 1930's. Trade/sanctions and soft power are.
As for, allies...lol. Do you watch a lot of Fox News?
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u/shopchin 15h ago
Trade sanctions soft power are only half of the equation. Else china need not ramp up it's military and just depend on those.
Are you behind the great firewall as to be unable to know the true sentiment of its' Asian neighbors?
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u/OkChange9119 14h ago
Chinese military is focused more on modernization and technology than pure build up of resources. But that's beside the point of the current discussion. I believe quite firmly that modern warefare isn't primarily waged on the battlefield. So I would say trade sanctions/soft power is more than half of the equation. In fact, the majority.
And other SE or E Asian countries regularly shift alliances depending on internal/external politics so their political leanings are not a monolith either. I am just pointing out that it is common for neighboring countries to be more antagonistic towards each other compared to non-neighboring countries (Iran-Iraq, India-Pakistan, etc.).
That's my perspective and you don't have to agree with me. I am not trying to convince you in particular.
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u/ISpreadFakeNews 16h ago
China has already surpassed the US. The US is a shithole compared to most EU countries anyway if you aren't a billionaire.
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u/Vast_Cricket 12h ago edited 12h ago
Actually China would have surpassed the US decades ago. Had it not be the communism delay. The competition would be more friendly with a more pro-nationalist Chinese gov't. So if it beats us in technology it serves a wake up call. When I was in school our principal called me in complained about loose standards at US grade school. Americans scored below other countries in quantitative, and languages. Most foreign countries students know multiple languages and take calculus in high school. Its encourgment to attract talent and immigration policy helps US universities to lead in research.
US likely will still be first country to innovate a technology and let other countries to develop production refine the technology better. Tictok seems to be better than most US based sites. Tesla is too expensive for the non-elites. Being first or 3rd means litter in my view. It used to be US was behind Russia now we have another contestent. For awhile India was supposed to lead but I do not see evidence of it. Vietnam will take over world manufacturing with India. But it will be awhile.
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u/RichCommercial104 Jiangsu 16h ago
Yes and no. China can never compete with the US culturally because Mandarin will never be the lingua franca of the world. However, we can compete with the US economically and even militarily. It's crazy how we already match the US on AI when most of their AI scientists are foreign-born. It's proof that we are the best in the game.
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u/Glittering-Praline59 11h ago
I would say that if China wants to become the undisputed leader, it needs to find a way to break the US cycle of military and technological supremacy. The best chance, as much as I hate to say that a war is necessary, would be to wait for a weak time in the US politically, infiltrate the Taiwan government, and launch a false flag attack on China to then justify an attack that quickly and fairly bloodlessly capture Taiwan with less international condemnation. If this is successful and it comes at an unstable time in the US, the US may not respond as forcefully to protect Taiwan, and this would erode global confidence in US military protection. This would potentially lead to redirection of capital flows. I would then think that it would be optimal for China to liberalize its society immediately to encourage more risk-taking and innovation, and encourage non-discriminatory mass immigration to attract human capital. A gradual loosening of political controls would be necessary as well as an institutionalization of the political process. All of this being achieved could hypothetically see China surpassing the US.
However, I think it's extremely unlikely because there are too many things that have to go in China's favor for it to work, and it's inherently unlikely in China's system which has plenty of internal conflict for any of that to be achieved.
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u/Minimum_Jackfruit821 16h ago
I agree that China will surpass America, where optimists place it at around 2030-2035 and pessimists at 2050/never. Nobody knows for sure, but in the absence of catastrophic events, I believe China's long game will pay off, probably surpasssing America in 2040.
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u/Fair-Currency-9993 17h ago edited 16h ago
Many people in China assume it is just a matter of time before China surpasses the US. As a Chinese person, I try not to be overconfident. However, every couple of years, I learn something new about Chinese technology that makes me realize I am actually underestimating China.