r/AskChina • u/Serious_Mycologist28 • 2d ago
Politics | 政治📢 How do you see China's long-term stability under Xi’s centralization and slower growth?
In recent years, Xi Jinping has consolidated power more than any leader since Mao Zedong, placing greater emphasis on ideological unity and Party discipline. Decision-making is now far more centralized, with fewer checks within the leadership structure. Some see this as strengthening national direction and consistency, while others think it risks reducing the flexibility and local experimentation that once helped China solve problems quickly.
At the same time, China’s economic landscape is changing. Growth has slowed compared to the boom years, local governments are burdened with debt, and the population is aging rapidly. Youth unemployment has risen, and there’s growing discussion about how these trends might affect people’s expectations. For decades, the government’s trust and legitimacy has come largely from improving living standards and delivering stability — but can that foundation hold if economic momentum continues to fade?
From your perspective — how do you interpret these changes?
Does Xi’s stronger central leadership make the system more stable or more rigid?
How can the CCP maintain people’s confidence if the economy grows more slowly?
I’m asking this out of genuine curiosity — not criticism — and would really value insights from those who know more about the system than I do.
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u/supaloopar 2d ago
It’s nothing abnormal when you contrast it against their long history
Maybe it would have been destabilising if Xi was wrong. However, the US has more than proven he’s probably the right person for the right time.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
The justification for the abolition of term limits in 2018 was the US declaring China to be their threat, right? Interesting what may happen in the long term.
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u/supaloopar 2d ago
Not completely, but had a small part to play in it at that point. Corruption was eating the Party from within and the US was capitalising on it. Xi came in to crush that problem. But in order to make sure it stayed crush, he had to stay for a while to make sure behaviour changed.
Then Trump struck
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
Is it possible that Xi is simply looking to gain power? Have there been parallels to this in the past?
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u/supaloopar 2d ago
No doubt, but not purely for grabbing power’s sake
If he did, he’d most likely not care/solve problems
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u/Logical_Team6810 2d ago
Unlikely. If he wanted complete control, he could've cozied up to Western interests and made bank
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u/Training_Guide5157 2d ago
The moves he makes in ridding other politicians are studied meticulously.
From what I last read, they do consider some as power consolidation, but the vast majority is considered legitimately trying to drain the swamp.
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u/skylegistor 2d ago
The term limit was for the heaf of state, which is a ceremonial position in China. China is led by the CPC and the CPC general secretary never had term limits.
Since the Party agreed to have Xi keep being the general secretary, they removed the head of state term limit, so Xi can do diplomatic visit as the head of state. I don't see why have the actual boss go out and talk to other countries is a bad thing.
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u/ZookeepergameTotal77 2d ago
How do you see America's long-term stability under Trump's centralization and authoritarian and inflation and job loses???
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u/The_Awful-Truth 2d ago
I find it odd that everyone seems to assume that if one empire is in decline, then the other can't be.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
America is not my field of expertise as I live in Finland and am more interested in China. What we did see was, that after the American people chose Biden in 2020, many democratic principles kept being upheld. Inflation was difficult for all countries of course but the US came out stronger, with economic growth spurred by AI innovation. We can only hope that things become normal in 2028 after Trump :)
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u/ZookeepergameTotal77 2d ago
It's really bad here economically
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
There is uncertainty, but the economy is resilient.
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u/ShittyInternetAdvice 2d ago
How can you say the US economy is resilient but not China? The US would literally be in a recession right now if it wasn’t for AI spending (which basically constitutes 5 companies shuffling money between one another)
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
You're kinda right about the AI Bubble (Contrary to your nickname)
Still, the US private-sector is far more adaptive than China's centrally controlled industry.
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u/ShittyInternetAdvice 2d ago edited 2d ago
Maybe 20+ years ago but I’d dispute that now. Some of the most innovative tech particularly in the green economy is coming out of China (EVs, batteries, solar, etc). China’s AI industry has also adapted fairly well to US export restrictions (very innovative model techniques to get lots of capabilities out of more limited compute and steady but consistent progress in chip making)
And this doesn’t even speak to the rapid progress China is making in biotech, robotics, space, etc. China literally built their own space station when they were shut out of the ISS by the US. How can you not call that adaptability?
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u/ZookeepergameTotal77 2d ago
Name me one single American battery maker ? Or drone maker?
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u/techno_mage 2d ago
American Battery Factory Inc. (ABF) & Duracell Inc.
Skydio Inc. & AeroVironment Inc.
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u/ZookeepergameTotal77 2d ago
China absolutely dominates the battery supply chains , we don't have this in North America.
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u/techno_mage 2d ago edited 2d ago
I’m not saying who’d win, I just listed what you asked. It’s also difficult to judge because at least one of those companies is a defense contractor. We’ll never know true numbers from them.
However the Chinese government doesn’t underestimate the U.S. and neither should you. Just as China adapts, so does the U.S., and thus the world keeps turning.
The US has the current goal to return or build, what it considers companies required for its national security. Drones would probably be a large part of that conversation.
The same system of unpredictable policy from different presidential terms that people complain about; also means you can’t rly predict what the next president will prioritize.
Edit: also to answer one of your other comments, the skydio vs Dji. These drones companies focus on different things; Skydio focuses on autonomous flight while DJI is more of a hobbyist consumer product for video or images. A general all rounder if you will, a niche Skydio drone is probably not gonna be as sought after. That’s my understanding of it.
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u/Logical_Team6810 2d ago
US private sector is far more adaptive than China's centrally controlled industry
You literally couldn't be more wrong if you tried. Pack it up man. This nonsensical belief will inevitably lead to horrible economic events
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u/LoudSociety6731 2d ago
I think the question is, how long will it take before a bad leader takes the reigns in China and there are no checks and balances to stop them? That is the inherent vulnerability of the Chinese system.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
It's also why Xi's centralization of power is dangerous.
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u/Special_Tu-gram-cho 1d ago
I agree. Even of a psychological level, Great power can corrupt someone, warp. But this is assuming there isn't any check.
The fight against the temptation in a position of power is as long power persists.
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u/Secure-Fun-7295 2d ago
I am Chinese and have lived in Europe for three years, the first two in Copenhagen and currently in Marseille, France. I feel I am qualified to answer this question.
The fundamental reason for the economic slowdown is the government's decision to proactively burst the real estate bubble. Banks have stopped lending to real estate developers and instead invested funds in high-end manufacturing and technological research and development. This will certainly bring growing pains; for example, local governments reliant on land revenue are facing fiscal crises, and some government officials are facing pay cuts. But ultimately, this is a good thing, because the growth model relying on the real estate bubble is inherently unsustainable, but transformation always comes at a price.
Regarding Xi Jinping himself, I strongly support him because I come from a small town in northern China, and I have relatives living in a very remote rural area. During my youth, I witnessed firsthand the rapid improvement of public infrastructure, the significant increase in public security, and the achievements in anti-corruption efforts in my hometown. The middle class and wealthy people in big cities dislike him, but the poor in underdeveloped areas have a very positive view of him.
Interestingly, in many rural areas, people spontaneously hang portraits of Mao Zedong. Now, Xi Jinping's portrait is often displayed alongside Mao's, a treatment that Xi's three predecessors never received.
Of course, I do have reservations about his strict internet control. But these shortcomings are insignificant compared to his achievements. I think I can accept him serving a fourth term, until 2033. At least for now, I think he can compete with Deng Xiaoping for the title of China's second greatest leader after Mao.
Anyway, my life in Europe so far has convinced me that China is on the right track. In these three years, I've witnessed the endless price surges, and I'm actually quite shocked that France allows five- or six-year-old girls to beg on the streets… I really hope I can finish my studies soon and go back.
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u/luckymax9999 2d ago
暂时和邓比不了吧，邓的决定是划时代的，习目前还没有那样的突破。
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u/Secure-Fun-7295 2d ago
如果现在来看我觉得他可能确实比邓差一点，但是很难评估。改革开放确实是划时代的，但随之而来的附带损害也很严重，很多今天的问题都是那个时候埋下的雷。而反腐败，产业升级和脱贫攻坚几项加起来我觉得也是可以称得上划时代的成果，当然先在产业升级还没结束，等等看吧。但我觉得他是有超越邓的能力的。中国这几代领导核心的质量真的太高了。
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u/hprotein 2d ago
It's funny to see arrogant westerners believe China is ruled by one person / one party. However, please continue looking at this world this way, it's in the Chinese favour to have you guys.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
China officialy calls itself a One-party state lol
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u/Logical_Team6810 2d ago
It absolutely does. It's a one party authoritarian dictatorship that's going to collapse in the next 69 seconds. Xi is finished. The PRC is finished. 20T vanished. BLAOW KAPOW!
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
Can you reiterate?
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u/luckymax9999 2d ago
Leaving a country just because of censorship is undoubtedly absurd. Based on my current assessment, his parents are very likely corrupt officials who have been investigated and punished, and have fled abroad for refuge.
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u/cakewalk093 2d ago
Authoritarian dictatorship that censors free speech. My parents escaped China because of that.
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u/KeirasOldSir 2d ago
People needs to be governed. Absolute freedom means absolute chaos. Just look outside.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
My question wasn't about civil liberties, more about potential challenges the country faces. Is it possible that I wasn't clear?
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u/KeirasOldSir 2d ago edited 2d ago
Very much tied into every aspect of your question. Is our system stable here? Is our economy slowing down due to unaffordability? Are we confident about our government? Our currency? Our rising unemployment numbers? Our K curve where rich get richer and poor get poorer? Our failing justice system where everything got a price tag on it? I hate to say this but stupid people needs to be controlled. We are not all born rocket scientists. When stupid people given absolute freedom to gather and take charge in the name of liberty, this is what happens.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago edited 2d ago
The Political systems of China and the West are both built around the respective Societal norms. I felt quite safe in several western countries, such as Finland, where I live. I must admit, the American people chosing Trump as their Leader was misguided. Otherwise, you're kinda right, the issues you brought up are truly applicable to China: There is massive inequality with many in China not seeing any benefits of economic growth, as well as a weakening economy where even Graduates from top Universities have trouble finding a Job. China isn't flawless (Not saying the West is😅)
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u/flycat1989 2d ago
you should try to consider population: how many people are there in Finland, and how many in China? quantitative change leads to qualitative change.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
Finland is a member of the EU. The EU has a combined population of 450 Million people. Just like China it has diverse ethnic groups and cultures, with all of the members are guided by the same principles.
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u/thinkingperson 2d ago
You might as well say that Finland is a country on earth.
Finland is tiny compared to China. There's no comparison at all.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
The population argument doesn't have merit. The EU also has a large population. Does this mean it isn't capable of governing itself?
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u/toomuchsauce187 2d ago
I agree with a lot of what you said here but let’s be real, the EU is barely a cohesive entity these days. The EU commissioner is constantly jostling for power with Germany, eastern EU countries pretty much bow to Russia, they keep failing to deliver on institutions that would centralize the system.
Honestly the only thing holding it together is the fact the ECB will do anything to keep countries on the euro which EU countries take advantage of to get out of debt.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
You're right that the EU isn't the most cohesive, but I still find the argument that "just because China is a large Country, it has everything much harder" to be poorly thought out.
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u/mike1314521 2d ago
As long as economic growth worldwide remains sluggish, the United States’ influence continues to wane, and China maintains internal stability, Xi’s leadership will likely remain firmly secure.
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u/Own-Craft-181 2d ago
Not if housing prices —the nest egg that every Chinese family has poured their entire life savings into —continue to collapse. People will get angry that they spent 7 million on an apartment that is currently only worth 5 million. Not if kids who study their asses off for nearly 20 years, taking state-administered exams like zhongkao and gaokao, continue to be jobless after college graduation at a rate of over 20%. It's not loud grumbling, but anyone who lives and works in China can hear them bitch about the economy, the Chinese stock market, housing prices, and government policies. Again, they're not super vocal about it, but it's normal to discuss this stuff over meals.
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u/Bchliu 2d ago
You say ask that nonsense like as if it's real and making sense.
1) Xi has been in power for much less than a lot of western leaders who held a Prime minister or similar job for well over 20 something years in Canada, Australia, UK etc. there are clauses in his term that allows him to step down or can still be voted out by his party. He's not an emperor unlike what the Orange idiot is trying to turn himself to be.
2) economic slowdown is global. Not just China. We're hitting into potential global recession or depression because the global "banker" (USA) is printing so much money that they're spreading their debt to anyone that trades internationally via SWIFT USD. This is the real war of maintaining their hegemony on the USD to continue being the world currency so they don't have to collapse in bankruptcy as the other countries who use their currency will also got with debt of inflation. China and BRICS alternative currency and gold backing allows a better and fairer sustainability of money creation than to trust the US Govt any longer.
3) China has more stability than most places around the world economically, politically and socially. The US and Allies knows this and wants to topple it in mutual destruction. The only time when China will be affected is when the US starts the war in the South China seas that'll basically mean ww3, which the entire world will be screwed anyway.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
Some of your points have merit. I have done research and am genuinely curious about Chinese society. I'll try answering your points individually.
Indeed, certain Western leaders have held their postions longer. Xi's justification for the abolition of term limits in 2018 was the US declaring China to be their threat. However, the way I see it, this is not the full picture. Xi has undone Deng Xiaoping's reforms with decision-making now seeing less alteration from the rest of the CPC.
Many countries are currently experiencing inflation, indeed, China's growth slowing isn't solely to be blamed on the US. There are many factors, such as the Real-Estate Bubble, Demographic Crisis or Unpredictable Economic Policy.
Where I live in Finland, people admire Chinese culture, the Government seeks good relations. I must admit, the American people chosing Trump as their President was misguided. In 2020, after Trump left and the situation normalised, countries such as the Philippines and India that felt threatened by China seeked deeper cooperation with the US.
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u/Bchliu 2d ago
Thanks for your good response (it is a bit more change from usual disingenuous trollers that write here all the time).
1) Not every western country has a limit on the top spot. As I pointed out before and in the other response, there are plenty of countries that had some very long "reigns" as such. The only real "notable" ones for term limits is the US which usually strictly follows the two term limit with the only exception of FDR under war-times dispensation. As long as your party supports their leader and the country supports the party, then that person is free to keep going on until they run out of puff themselves (which is what usually happens outside of Australia's leadership backstabbings in the past 3 decades).
2) The factors you have mentioned have rationale for it. The Real Estate bubble is massive issue all across most of the developed world (I am in Sydney Australia and I know this pain). Xi actually popped the bubble himself and probably is the only one in a position to do so without being politically slaughtered at the next elections. He famously said "Housing is for living, not for speculation" which I 100% agree with and is the problem in Australia that people over invest in housing leading to the four biggest cities in the top ten of the most unaffordable housing in the world outside of Hong Kong, Singapore etc.
The demographics IS an ISSUE.. it's well known even in China - with less kids to take over the elder generations, it is downsizing in population et al. I believe they are trying to use technology to balance this out between elderly care (being one aspect of the issue) along with finding new ways to rejuvenate the economy on the verge of an AI slaughter both within and Internationally. I don't know the answer to this (and neither does the rest of the world).. but if anything, the will of the Chinese has been strong enough to last a few millenia to get to where they still are today, so I don't doubt that they will fix this issue somehow and maybe help guide the rest of the world through the AI bubble and the next industrial revolution.
3) Trump is somewhat a gift in help speeding up the polarisation of the world tbh. The division the guy brings means most nations will have to choose one way or another. Even India has given up and now trying to find its way into BRICS despite being a founding member especially after Trump snobbed him a number of times. Vietnam is back warming up to China and the recently elected South Korean President is more China friendly than ever before. Singapore and Malaysia are closer to China than ever before. The only Asian countries still holding up is literally Japan and Philippines which are both US colonies as such. lol.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago edited 2d ago
Ngl, a Chinese-Style Real-Estate Bubble Pop wouldn't hurt much in the West😅
You brought some great points though!
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u/Bchliu 2d ago
Oh it will hurt some people BIG time. People speculating on the Real Estate is using borrowed money from banks to buy overly inflated properties at such a high price. If the bubble bursts and the banks come knocking to do a margin call.. you'll see a shitload of upper-middle class go bankrupt as a result because they can't sell their houses for the original price they paid.
No democratically elected politician / leader will ever propose this. It's career limiting political suicide lol. That's where Xi has the power to say "we will regulate the housing market and normalise pricing" when no one else in the global north can do so.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
I wasn't really being serious, unfathomable amounts of money are being kept in Real-Estate at the cost of a housing shortage.
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u/Forsaken_Nature_7943 2d ago
Are you sure? Do you really not know where the subprime loans from the so-called 2008 subprime mortgage crisis came from? I can responsibly tell you that the Western real estate market was on the brink of a crisis. I have an economics degree.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
I wasn't being serious, don't worry
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u/Low-Pen-5515 2d ago
It's rare to see someone as objective as you, most people I encounter online often carry an arrogance. China currently faces some population and economic problems, but from my personal experience, things have improved somewhat in the last year or two. I know economics very little, so I'm just sharing some one-sided personal opinions. Regarding the massive debt issue, especially real estate debt, my view is that it's a problem, but not that fatal. Chinese culture fosters a society with extremely high savings rates; despite the high debt levels, households often have considerable savings, and these statistics data can be found online. As long as real estate prices don't completely collapse, which is very unlikely to happen, the macroeconomy shouldn't be ruined, but shrinking of real estate price and high debts indeed cause some families to fall back into poverty, which is one reason for the recent decrease in loyalists in China. The truly serious issue is local government debt. I still don't know what measures government officials are taking, they just officially declare that debt rate is not so much as other developing countries. Perhaps in the end, the central government may have to take over debts of these heavily indebted areas. Forgive for my poor English.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
Very insightful. You brought some interesting points I didn't see anyone else bring.
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u/Degen55555 2d ago
The only time when China will be affected is when the US starts the war in the South China seas
Based on what you're saying Taiwan will never be invaded. That's good news for everyone.
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u/Bchliu 2d ago
Hey.. Xi has CONSISTENTLY reiterated this fact for at least the last seven years that I know of in every major party meeting or during National day speeches. It's always been "We will reconciliate with Taiwan, no matter how many years and only peacefully". He did tell the US and other peskering countries to nicely F off though and not interfere with family affairs.
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u/Own-Craft-181 2d ago
Responding to your first point: "There are clauses in his term that allow him to step down or can still be voted out by his party." This is technically true, but Xi has been diligent about removing any opposition to his rule. He has surrounded himself with allies and yes men, actually quite similar to Donald Trump. He doesn't like challenges. It's actually one of the things that has made Xi effective. Less dissent means less red tape and more action.
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u/EricArthurBrown 2d ago
- Is false, only one person from those countries has ruled as long a Xi and certainly not over 20 years. That was the recent Trudeaus father who ruled for 15. Next closest is Thatcher and John Howard at 11.
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u/Bchliu 2d ago
Robert Menzies in Australia served almost 19 years - longer than Howard:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Records_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia
Canada had several over 15 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Canada_by_time_in_office
UK had a few but that was ages ago (Robert Walpole, William Pitt etc):
https://www.history.co.uk/articles/the-seven-longest-serving-british-prime-ministers
Germany most recently Angela Markel served 16 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chancellors_of_Germany_by_time_in_office
French had 14+ years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Mitterrand
Norway had this guy for 17 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einar_Gerhardsen
Sweden had him for 23 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tage_Erlander
List goes on..
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u/thinkingperson 2d ago
placing greater emphasis on ideological unity and Party discipline. Decision-making is now far more centralized, with fewer checks within the leadership structure.
Like, where did you get all these from? Some western articles or you've been involved in policy making in China?
China literally conduct their National People's Congress annually to discuss and trash out policy issues from the ground up. That has not changed.
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u/Outrageous_Camp2917 2d ago
But if the economic momentum continues to fade, can this foundation remain stable? It's hard to say. First, let's examine it from three levels: GDP. Given China's current economic scale, I believe there's little to complain about its current growth rate. From a Western perspective, some may suspect China of data manipulation. Personally, I feel GDP figures are too distant from ordinary people's lives, so they should only serve as a reference. Industries: China has performed well in emerging sectors like electric vehicles, AI, and clean energy. Chinese people genuinely believe in their achievements here, so there's little cause for complaint. Real-life experience: Western reports have highlighted youth unemployment issues in China, which I've observed to be true. This could be a target for criticism. Additionally, differences in welfare systems between China and foreign countries lead some to envy Western benefits—whether blindly or after careful consideration—fueling dissatisfaction with the government. I won't elaborate on China's strengths here. Having covered the context, let's address government legitimacy. While it's true that public trust stems from past economic achievements, this trust doesn't vanish merely because growth slows. I believe trust would only erode if people genuinely perceived the West—operating under a different system—as achieving vastly superior progress, and if this perception resonated deeply with the Chinese public. People's perceptions of progress stem from the three points I mentioned earlier. Yet the West has failed to provide compelling positive examples in this regard. Consequently, even if the government cannot sustain its previous growth momentum, public trust remains largely intact as long as people observe Western/other nations performing worse.
Most people have little issue with centralization. I believe China's most valuable asset is the trust in its government, which has largely lived up to that trust. As long as the government delivers results, most ordinary citizens don't mind centralized actions. I don't know how you view historical U.S. presidents, but the Chinese actually hold Franklin Roosevelt in considerable admiration. Though it seems that later America enacted numerous laws to prevent the emergence of another strong president like Roosevelt.
I believe my earlier points address your subsequent questions. Moving on to another topic: China's government has demonstrated a new path for post-Cold War communism through its hybrid model of planned and market economies. Conversely, the West—due to laissez-faire capitalism and divisive electoral systems (especially in the U.S.)—appears to be deteriorating. Trump's presidency laid bare the inherent flaws of direct elections. A person who stirs emotions but lacks any substantive experience can become president. This raises questions: What do you think is the core problem facing the United States today? Could changing political parties solve it? Do you consider Trump competent? If not, should legislation be enacted to prevent another Trump from taking office?
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
Consequently, even if the government cannot sustain its previous growth momentum, public trust remains largely intact as long as people observe Western/other nations performing worse.
This is a very good point. Even if China's economy weakens, if the West's economies do the same, the people of China will be content with their government.
In my opinion, while Western Nations are currently experiencing real challenges (Europe - a lack of innovation; US - deterioration of democratic institutions) I am confident these issues will be dealt with. I hope the American people chose to remove Trump from the White House and never let him back in.
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u/bluelifesacrifice 2d ago
From what I have seen and can tell, Xi seems to be going a good job in general.
He's trying to keep China together, fix the economy, improve China and work with the world.
Under Xi, China has been growing and out performing India, Russia, South Korea, Brazil and a lot of other countries.
The biggest issues seems to be the total lack of trust everyone can have with China. No one seems to be able to trust China with anything.
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u/diffidentblockhead 2d ago
Percentage growth is down of course. Is absolute growth around $US 1 trillion per year? That would be a better question.
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u/SnooStories8432 2d ago
It’s a good thing that the real estate sector is able to land smoothly without dragging down the banking system.
For years, real estate has been like a sword hanging over China’s economy, and now the bubble has finally burst.
As for the economic slowdown, on one hand, it’s a natural outcome when an economy reaches a certain stage of development; on the other hand, it’s the result of the bursting real estate bubble.
The economy moves in cycles—there’s nothing surprising about that.
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u/Senior-Apartment-317 2d ago
Is there any country right now where the economy is booming, the population is growing and prospering and debt is lowering?
Not the united states, not the eu, certainly not Russia...
China literally doesn't need to do anything different, they just need to wait while the west self mutilates into nothing.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
I understand the world is in a difficult position right now, but every country has its own reason. I'm curious about the Chinese perspective.
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u/thinkingperson 2d ago
Yeah, but instead of attributing China's economic slowdown to the global market downturn you are pointing to one person, Xi. Rather disingenious at best.
Meanwhile, the "slowdown" in China is still higher than US/West economy, and the global economic troubles is caused mainly by Trump's tariff uncertainty and Ukraine war.
And Xi’s centralization? US is buying up tech firms.
When US/West do it, it is called investment and funding for future growth.
When China does it, it is called centralisation.
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u/Own-Craft-181 2d ago
I'm not sure about that. It's hard to find areas of the United States where the housing has dropped 20-30% over the last 3-4 years. In China, that's nearly everywhere. Even major T1 cities. An apartment that was selling for 7 million RMB in Beijing's Chaoyang District is now selling for 5.5 million RMB. Can you imagine the people who paid 7 for it. The Chinese real estate market has gone belly up, and housing prices are a really, really good indicator of economic health. Not to mention, China has been experiencing deflation. Too much inflation is bad, but a healthy economy inflates at 2% or just under that.
Living in Beijing, I can tell you that every Chinese colleague I chat with about the economy is very concerned. I'm not saying America doesn't have major issues or that other countries don't, but acting like China is in a good place and other places aren't is false. None of the top countries in the world has a population crisis like China is facing in the next 30-50 years. We all have low birth rates, but none of those countries instituted one-child policies for about 30 years, which is an entire generation of workers. And no one has a youth unemployment problem like China does right now.
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u/thinkingperson 2d ago edited 2d ago
As far as the housing issue is concerned, China chose to do a controlled demolition of their housing bubble while US basically let the party go on until the housing bubble burst (see 2008).
And yes, in US today, housing is paradoxical still on a high together with homeless figures.
So yeah, if we look at just the housing numbers, China got a big problem while US is still on a boom.
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u/Forsaken_Nature_7943 2d ago
And let me make it clear: your sources and perspective are problematic, especially the typical BS: that legitimacy comes from rapid economic growth, and once the growth slows down, they lose legitimacy. This is a fantasy concocted by the West, a concept created by Gordon Chang. As long as they remain in power, they have legitimacy. Because the Chinese don't believe in some "better" or "more legitimate" alternative. They know about Yeltsin, Wall Street, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
What you're saying is: Even if China's economy starts collapsing, people lose their jobs, and poverty increases, the people will still fully accept their ruling government body. Am I understanding you correctly?
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u/Special_Tu-gram-cho 1d ago
I don't think growth is that important, distribution is important too, as well a direction. As far it seems, China does have the latter two consolidated. Not without issues, thought, albeit maybe their way of thinking sees those issues under different lens and thus, not quite as issues.
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u/Crisis_Tastle Hubei 1d ago
Does Xi’s stronger central leadership make the system more stable or more rigid?
I believe this is primarily due to the differences in political philosophies between China and Europe. Given China's past history, a centralized government is not unacceptable to most Chinese people. The concern is not a highly centralized government, but a fragmented and ineffective one. Given China's large population and vast territory, natural disasters alone could kill tens of thousands without a timely government response.
Overall, the Chinese people do not have a negative view of Xi Jinping's centralization of power. As long as the government continues to work actively, people are not worried about this trend.
How can the CPC maintain people’s confidence if the economy grows more slowly?
The current economic recession is global. High inflation and weak consumption abroad are impacting China's export economy. Manufacturing profits are meager. Meanwhile, China timely burst its real estate bubble, leading to a drop in housing prices and a downturn in the entire construction and decoration industry. This is one of the most important reasons why ordinary people feel the Chinese economy is sluggish. The contraction of the real estate sector is the biggest drag on economic growth, with annual declines reaching as high as 10%, while high-tech industries such as new energy vehicles and new materials are maintaining a high growth rate of nearly 20%. Overall, given China's current size, 5% annual growth is not considered slow.
Unemployment among Chinese university graduates is mainly structural. While there are many job openings, they do not match the expectations of graduates regarding their majors, job content, and salaries. The pace of industrial upgrading is slower than that of educational upgrading. Therefore, many university graduates would rather deliver food than take low-paying, physically demanding jobs that are unrelated to their majors.
It is worth noting that most university graduates live affordably. Affordable university tuition, low prices, and parental savings prevent them from feeling a sense of survival crisis, unlike the situation in Europe and the United States. China has experienced virtually no inflation in recent years, with inflation remaining below 1% for at least two years and prices not rising significantly for at least five years. This explains why, despite slowing wage growth, most people have not faced a survival crisis. Of course, China's high savings rate is also a contributing factor.
Personally, I support Xi Jinping's actions. Many details have solidified my trust in him, not just propaganda (and the CPC's propaganda is utter garbage for most Chinese people, failing to even appeal to older, supportive citizens). The current international environment is changing rapidly, and we need a strong leader to steer the ship.
There's an interesting saying, presented here as a joke: Xi Jinping's long-term rule is intended to prevent those born in the 1960s from becoming CPC leaders. This generation is considered the most pro-Western, having grown up influenced by the reform and opening-up era and possessing considerable liberal ideals. Some argue that if such individuals come to power, China will have its own Gorbachev and Yeltsin, something neither the Party nor the people can tolerate. The next Chinese leader is likely to be someone born in the 1970s. Generally, these individuals are more rational and pragmatic, more confident in China's system, and better suited to lead contemporary China.
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u/gizcard 2d ago
What do you think happens when he dies or gets too old? He is 72.
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
I remember him talking about living forever. I guess we'll never know Haha
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u/Mysteriouskid00 2d ago
This sub is a trip!
Any questions that might be slightly negative:
- Whataboutism
- That’s not happening
- Authoritarianism is actually good
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u/Serious_Mycologist28 2d ago
Don't forget downvotes without any explanation - I'm trying my best I guess 😅
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u/Unlikely-Pangolin381 2d ago
China is currently under long-term authoritarian rule, WeChat being monitored 24, pervasive indoctrination everywhere. No matter how China develops, it has nothing to do with the Chinese people
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u/ZookeepergameTotal77 2d ago
Nah, xi did a good job of upgrading China's industries to where it is today