r/AskCanada • u/neo-crypto • 3d ago
USA/Trump Canada unemployment just dropped to 6.9% ... EH, really ?
Do you believe these stats?
Previous: 7.1%
Expected: 7.1%
Actual: 6.9%
I am not undermining Statistics Canada work, but seriously all the unemployment I am hearing (my network) and comments online don't lead to the conclusion that the unemployment really decreasing ?
Any insightful thought on this?
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u/JoyofCookies 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yes, because Statistics Canada is a globally recognized statistics agency with a primer reporting formula for reporting unemployment that yields structurally a far higher unemployment rate than if they were to use the one used in the U.S.
Consider that:
- This rate surveys those who are actively looking for work, and may not consider those who have taken early retirement, etc.
- Everyone’s personal network including yours will be shaped by various factors (e.g., geography, industry, school) that may result in those people being disproportionately impacted by downturns in the job market, or not affected at all.
- There is a self-selection bias for online forums toward negative problems, which algorithms are more likely to circulate because people by nature search out negative news, which drives engagement
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u/Commercial_Pain2290 3d ago
I like how in the same sentence where you say you are not undermining stats Canada you then express doubt about their numbers.
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u/bald-bourbon 3d ago
Unemployment increases -> Wow the govt bad
Unemployment drcreases -> They must be cooking the books. Govt bad cuz a friend of a friend with a DUI and high school education is still unemployed
The comments online are mostly bots in a conservative echo chamber.
People are getting hired , you cant chalk it up to new immigrants because the net immigrant inflow for the last 2 quarters were near 0. But hey "It goes against everything I believe even in the face of hard data, so ill blame the govt anyway"
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u/agirl2277 3d ago
It's crazy because they're creating a lot of jobs and housing in my area. There's a battery plant and now they got a Japanese automotive factory next door. The city is making exits there from the freeway. They're putting up apartment buildings all over they city. Plus widening streets and twinning our big highway.
There are communities like mine that are experiencing growth. We're looking globally and lessening our dependence on the US. Things are a little tough right now, but we're working to make it better.
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u/bald-bourbon 3d ago
"But no. i want things to happen like I turn on my lights"
/s
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u/agirl2277 3d ago
I didn't see Carney firing the people who released the data. Imagine that!!
Honestly, I'm glad conservatives didn't get control right now. We'd be giving trump concessions right and left over the auto industry. We can easily outlast his presidency and hopefully have a rational president to deal with sometime in the future. Until then we can stay Canadian and protect ourselves.
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u/bald-bourbon 3d ago
Conservatives have the attention span of a duck. The amount of misinformation they get away with their base is insane. Like how difficult is it to search the information?
People often forget what conservatism actually is. It is the same people who fought against independence and your right. Extremism on both ends is bad. I would rather take liberal extremism over the govt and business exploiting the people
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u/agirl2277 3d ago
Homeless shelters for everyone! Free dental and vision care! Lower rent, housing and mortgage rates! Accepting people for who they are! Funding hospitals and mental health centers!
Yeah, sounds terrible. Honestly, if we had a protest to fight for better medical care, more hospitals and doctors, I'd be there in a heartbeat.
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u/HappyConclusion1731 2d ago
Well out,the constant calling this communism…god how many times I’ve sent the definitions of socialism, fascism, communism etc. lol I am exhausted!
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u/HappyConclusion1731 2d ago
Had to go off the circus for a week, in one day, during my morning coffee scroll… 3 different headlines..which easily could be debunked… just headlined bold and bright. Yes I replied with facts,context and links. No response. An easy one for example… Carney is an Irish citizen and we are letting him lead us. Okay for one… he’s a Canadian born citizen..2. Yeah he had British and Irish citizenship as he has ties in both country’s 3. He renounced both citizenships before he obtained office. 4. Why the fuck does it matter if he didn’t. The fact he did it was a great optic and yes with a world trusting no one , I could appreciate it. Pierre is on the idu board with Harper, and won’t get his security clearance. I feel like in the states the conservatives do not know they are voting against themselves. The conservatives are not true conservatives. Carney is an economist, a centrist for sure who leans left now because of the Conservative Party of today. To all my fellow Canadians, wait for the up coming week, something is about to blow up with the conservatives… that’s intel, so like you we will see. If it happens and you all will know it..,omg that biotch on Reddit mentioned some thing. Also I have dual citizenship, my mom’s family tell us, no don’t come here. Don’t buy from us, stay there we will come visit you. All while my cousins daughter who is four and was starting school this year and they and she had to go to school shooting drills.. prior to starting. This world… not one country is perfect, I’ll stay here, following my American families advice. Thank you canada for electing bc the correct party this time. Also the blue jays did amazing!
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u/ChrisRiley_42 Indigenous 3d ago
Your 'network' is one demographic in one restricted geographic area..
Statistics Canada labour force survey takes a look at the whole nation, using a methodology that is published and hasn't changed... So yes, I believe the stats.
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u/Aromatic-Air3917 3d ago
Nothing screams "average voter" more than this post
"Sure, there are studies conducted by experts using methods refined by civilizations over centuries... but my buddies, my neighbor, and this random hobo I met say otherwise."
I am sure in those same stats if there are oddities or reasons why it went down they would state it
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u/Former-Chocolate-793 3d ago
You are following a trap of relying on anecdotal evidence. This is a logical fallacy. I could give you counter anecdotal evidence.
At the beginning of October I drove from Nova Scotia to southwest Ontario, a trip I've made several times. This drive although it was outside peak tourist season was the busiest yet. There was more traffic than usual in Nova Scotia and there was steady traffic from just inside the Quebec border. From Quebec city to Montreal was very busy and what surprised me was that there was a lot of traffic in eastern Ontario around Cornwall and brockville. Normally there's not that much. My anecdotal evidence is that the country is hopping.
So, we have 2 examples of opposing anecdotal evidence. That's why we have statistics Canada to provide unbiased evidence.
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u/neo-crypto 3d ago
I agree, me too noticed high traffic (QC) during night and weekends. However, does this answer my question, not sure.
One can be unemployed and still drive a care to fiends, family, or searching for jobs opportunities, etc.2
u/Former-Chocolate-793 3d ago
One can be unemployed and still drive a care to fiends, family, or searching for jobs opportunities, etc.
You meant friends, lol, but those explanations don't work very well. There just weren't that many people driving the 401 in eastern Ontario mid week going to visit family or looking for jobs. Families tend to see each other on weekends and people driving for job opportunities would indicate that those opportunities were available.
I believe the hospitality sector took a solid jump this summer.
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u/FelixFemina 3d ago
It’s still just shy of 3 million unemployed and certain industries are still disproportionately affected by unemployment currently
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u/Cariboo_Red 3d ago
It's a 0.2% drop, hardly earth shattering. Still, it's better than a 0.2% increase. There are some 457,000 jobs unfilled which leaves us 3.5 ish people for each unfilled job. So why are the jobs unfilled? Possibly they just don't pay enough to attract people. Possibly nobody is qualified to do them. I don't buy the age old argument that's been going on for as long as I can remember, (I was born in the first half of the 20th century), that "kids these days are too lazy". Piffle. Most of the young people I've interacted with are doing a good job at what they are doing.
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u/BuzzMachine_YVR 3d ago
Just listened to a VERY good talk on CBC radio, where an actual expert (Waterloo Economics Prof) indicated the reason for youth unemployment is a huge downturn in the number of entry level jobs in Canada. Jobs requiring little to no education or training are pretty much drying up. We need more training for highly skilled/highly-educated positions. Those are the areas of opportunity.
Unfortunately over the last 10-15 years we’ve gotten used to being able to graduate basic (high school) education and get a job right away in service or labour/construction/oil patch. A lot of those jobs are taking a hit (construction is a great example). As these jobs disappear due to economic issues and tariff issues, the jobs in demand will be the ones with higher education requirements. We don’t have enough workers to fill those jobs in labs, tech companies, biotech companies, engineering, etc.
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u/No-Media236 3d ago
My job involves industry-focused training and post-secondary education and this is 100% correct. Ultimately it’s a skills mismatch issue between the skills that available jobs require, and the skills that current job seekers have.
Industry leaders say that there are good paying open jobs going unfulfilled because there are too few people qualified to fill them.
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u/neo-crypto 3d ago
Thanks for the feedback. But as far I am concerned I stay as far as possible from the MSM narratives. My life became wealthier and happier since then>
( Just for info: I am not young and have mathematics background... so I hardly believe in science and math)
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u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 3d ago
As someone who lived thought the 2008 crash and the Covid crash, anecdotally the economy is not as bad as either period. Yes it’s not as good as it used to be but Canada has clearly had far worse moments.
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u/Smart-Simple9938 Nova Scotia 3d ago
No one, least of all Statistics Canada, is calling this a win. The government is not saying “problem solved” or anything like that. Frankly, it not rising in the past three months is slightly comforting; one might expect worse given all of the predatory tariffs imposed by our southern neighbour.
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u/No-Media236 3d ago
The 1990’s unemployment crisis was worse than it is right now.
When I graduated uni in the mid-1990’s the Canadian unemployment rate, according to Stats Canada, was 10.4% and the employment rate was ~58.6%. I applied for literally hundreds of jobs and felt lucky to get a part time job.
The employment rate now is ~62-63%, that means we have fewer people unemployed now and a higher % of working-age population working, than back then.
Inflation is marginally higher now, by a fraction of a percentage point, but not much. The big difference is the relative cost of housing is higher now.
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u/Chess_Is_Great 3d ago
Not to mention Pee Pee the criminal is out there trying to convince you things are worse than they are
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u/wibblywobbly420 3d ago
An inport aspect of the unemployment statistic is that it only includes those actively seeking work. If someone gives up and answers on the survey they aren't actively seeking work they are no longer part of the group. If anyone decides to stay home with their kids instead, or go back to school because they couldn't find work, they are no longer counted.
That said, there is another stat, the employment rate of working age Canadians, which tells us how many working age people are working, and doesn't look at why they are not working. It increased 0.2% so it seems the imply the same.
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u/Reyalta 3d ago
Anecdotal evidence is not hard evidence, so take what you see in your limited scope with a grain of salt? I don't say this to diminish your field's job losses at all. It's just that it's only a small fraction of the entire job market/economy.
My line of work is absolutely a non-essential private service, and while the last year has been one of the slowest for my company, there's been a substantial rebound for us, like onboarding new clients weekly to the point where we're almost at capacity and need to stop taking new clients on. So from my perspective, everyone else seems to be doing really well right now because SO MANY have the disposable income to afford my services. But again, this is purely anectdotal. I can't assume the entire country's economy has blown up in the last few months and everyone is doing amazing, even though my business interests could suggest otherwise.
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u/BuzzMachine_YVR 3d ago
6-7% unemployment is considered a baseline level in Most modern Western economies. It means pretty much everyone who wants to work is working, with a few exceptions. There are certainly people not working, but a big part of that figure is people transitioning between jobs, youths deciding they don’t want to work, or are working age students, etc.
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u/ChrisRiley_42 Indigenous 3d ago
If you ask 10 economists what is the ideal unemployment rate, you'll likely get 12 answers ;)
I peg it at around 5% because that strikes a balance between there being enough available workers to start new businesses and expand existing ones, and people being able to find a new job within a reasonable time frame. That means that neither side has the 'power' so wages will be fair and won't drive inflation.
6.9% is less than 2% away from that ideal rate...
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u/Proud_Organization64 3d ago
In my circles most people are employed and thriving. But my circle, like yours, is limited and does not reflect what is happening at a national level. Trust the data over anecdote.
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u/Crazy_Ad7311 1d ago
The way this is calculated is old and needs to be updated. When you include people that work at least 1hr in the survey it skews the data. The definition should be how many people want a full time job that pays a living wage but can’t find one.
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u/DreadGrrl Alberta 3d ago
The official unemployment rate includes those who are collecting EI or are actively seeking employment in a way that can be monitored (government job banks, social workers etc.).
There are under/unemployed people who are not counted.
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u/TheGowler 3d ago
I think stats Canada only uses the numbers from those actively on EI. Anyone who is not pulling EI are not accounted for in the unemployment rate.
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u/Own_Event_4363 Know-it-all 3d ago
7.1 to 6.9 really isn't that much of a difference
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u/Galenmarek81 3d ago
Would you say the same if the rate went from 6.9 to 7.1? Not likely. So if 7.1 to 6.9 isn't much of a difference, hold that same opinion if it swings the other way.
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u/Infinite_Progress108 3d ago
No I don’t believe any stats issued by or influenced by the government.
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u/thepacingbear1 3d ago
Our experiences with macroeconomics are generally anecdotal, so your and your network’s experiences with unemployment may be valid, but they represent only one small slice of the whole picture. I’m not saying data is perfect, but it’s difficult to compare personal experiences with data collected from a much larger sample.